guy4omaha wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:13 am
yeah you guessed right. I took a casual look at 2.9 vs 2.1 for Des Moines and compared our 3.75 to my recollection of Eppley being somewhere over 5. Didn't work the math. And my pre-math perception said, "oooh, is Des Moines making ground on us?' Again casually, I thought to myself that 2.1 vs 3.75 seems closer than 2.9 vs 5+.
That is how I knew what you did instantly, because it would’ve been my inclination looking at the numbers as well.
guy4omaha wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:13 am
My bad as you point out. I had a feeling I was being hasty and that's why I used the word "seems" in my sentence. Glad to be wrong in this case.
It’s all good, because your “far much closer” to pre-pandemic levels comment is what actually made me do a double take and ask myself if it actually was the case, particularly because we knew Eppley was up over Des Moines this year. I did the mental math at that point and knew it had to be actually pretty close between the two and then did the actual math to find Eppley narrowly ahead.
Bearcat06 wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:08 am
Your absolutely correct, catchment area is a huge factor. I guess I was looking at the population base around the two as being a decent chunk of the travelers and presumed, maybe naively, that more of Iowa's population would be more centralized around Des Moines (i.e. how is it they can have over a million more in population in a smaller area and not be packed in around Des Moines?

) I see now there is a decent chunk of their population on the eastern side of the state
Yeah, I totally agree that the population base around the airport is your prime chunk of travelers. Roughly 28% of Iowa’s population is in Des Moines’ CSA. The thing is Cedar Rapids/Iowa City CSA and the Quad Cities CSA both sides of the river) combined have more people skewing things a bit further East. Beyond that, Pottawattamie County has about 20% of the population as Polk County (Des Moines) as well.
Omaha’s CSA (including 3 Iowa counties) is 51% of Nebraska’s population. That alone explains quite a bit of the difference in passenger levels between the two airports. This also obviously doesn’t include Lincoln which we know Eppley has a huge market share in.
Bearcat06 wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:08 am
and certainly OMA will pull anyone from CB and a good chunk between Omaha and West Des Moines. I could see anyone north of Ames heading to MSP and anyone east of Iowa City heading to Chicago. Makes sense. Maybe being more centralized is more of a hindrance for DSM than I initially thought.
Exactly, and I don’t know that it is necessarily a hindrance. They certainly have their own catchment area there. They’re just kind of naturally limited by larger airports on multiple sides making their territory realistically what it is.
Bearcat06 wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:08 am
OMA on the other hand, really doesn't have any competition to the west or north and probably pulls from as far as Grand Island or even Kearney and in western Iowa can probably pull from as far as Sioux City to the North and Hamburg to the south. So it certainly wouldn't hurt OMA that that area covers probably 70% of Nebraska's population and maybe 20-25% of Iowa's.
Agreed, also again why Omaha’s passenger numbers are what they are compared to Des Moines.
Bob from Omaha wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:47 am
Don't forget that Cedar Rapids & the Quad Cities also have airports. CID did well over a million prior to covid. Quad cities did somewhat less than that. Thus DSM competes with airports both within and outside Iowa. Both Cedar Rapids and the Quad Cities have United, American, Delta and Allegiant. I'd guess that OMA gets a majority of western Iowa's passengers and not everyone makes the shlep to Chicago, MSP, KC, etc. from eastern Iowa. That situation isn't like LNK. CID & QCI seem to have a larger relative populations to draw from and distance isn't like LNK.
Also agree here.
Bob from Omaha wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:47 am
DSM has grown impressively in the last few years. The Allegiant traffic helps but the truth is that it's relative. In other words, OMA's Southwest traffic dwarfs anything DSM has. For whatever reason Southwest never grew its DSM routes or frequencies.
Yeah, Omaha’s Southwest passengers were basically 61% of Des Moines total passengers. That certainly puts some things into perspective.
Bob from Omaha wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:47 am
My biggest question for Nuke is this. How big can DSM get? I mean, they got near 3 million. Is 5 million conceivable for DSM? Is 7 million conceivable for OMA? (And for the sake of this conversation let's assume post covid things get back to 2018-2019 growth patterns)
I’ll have to give this a bit more though. My inclination off of the top of my head though is for everything talked about above, Des Moines is kind of limited due to the catchment constraints mentioned above. Can the metro grow? Certainly. If that happens, can they pull back some fringe people that are traveling to other airports right now? Yeah of course. To what extent I don’t know… Eppley has sneakingly done a good job of seemingly locking up leakage from Omaha over the past decade. Presumably Des Moines might be able to do the same some how.
Bob from Omaha wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:47 am
As for OMA's modernization, it seems that they have been and are proceeding logically. New roads, car rental. Moving the CUP would be the next item. I still liked the prior design to the current proposed design.
I still wouldn’t read to much into the design that they showed. We know they weren’t all that far into the process.