2022 Weather Thread

[Busguy2010]

I'm laughing as I'm typing this, but almost a semblance of a chance of a sprinkle or two tomorrow night. Looks like next to nothing, but considering how dry its been, its a little something to speak of.

[stormchaser]

I'm laughing as I'm typing this, but almost a semblance of a chance of a sprinkle or two tomorrow night. Looks like next to nothing, but considering how dry its been, its a little something to speak of.

Yeah, the stuff tonight won't amount to much other than some sprinkles or very light/brief rain in isolated areas.

The storm for the middle of next week (around the 16th/17th) should produce a decent amount of precip. However, the track will determine if Omaha gets much of anything. If the storm track shifts south, we may miss out but who knows at this point. Below is the QPF for both the 00z ECMWF and 00z GFS with the GFS being a bit further south and east (more favorable for snow in Omaha). Clearly, both show some pretty healthy QPF totals but model trends will need to be watched to figure out what track is more likely...

00z ECMWF QPF (1.7" of precip in Omaha depicted on this run):


00z GFS QPF (.7" of precip in Omaha depicted on this run):

[Brad]

I don't really want a bunch of snow, but we really need some good moisture. Even the UNL people mentioned watering the other day on twitter.

[Cermak]

Some welcome rain in Omaha this evening, even if it doesn’t amount to much.

[Busguy2010]

Some welcome rain in Omaha this evening, even if it doesn’t amount to much.

I totally agree. Its been how long since its rained? I almost forgot what rain was like. It definitely isn't much, but It kindsa seems like its a little bit more than the .01" to .03" I saw the NWS talking about. It smells great out there right now. Hopefully this may help some of the stubborn piles of ice melt.

[Busguy2010]

Yeah, this is actually quite nice. Will be relaxing to fall asleep to. The rain has pleasantly overperformed the forecast.

[Brad]

I ended up with 0.27", which is nice. Even saw a little green on the way in to work.

[BRoss]

I ended up with 0.27", which is nice. Even saw a little green on the way in to work.

Got 0.30" here. My lawn has a few small green patches.

[stormchaser]

Looks like yet again Omaha is going to miss out on this upcoming storm system (and the moisture associated with it) - unless the tracks shifts back north. Based on how this winter has gone, I’m not surprised…

[Omaha Cowboy]

Looks like yet again Omaha is going to miss out on this upcoming storm system (and the moisture associated with it) - unless the tracks shifts back north. Based on how this winter has gone, I’m not surprised…

As many here know, I’m in favor of any type of frozen precipitation missing us..So I’m very happy to see the Omaha area likely dodging another bullet..

That said, we could use some more rain for sure…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[stormchaser]

Looks like we are in for a pattern change over the next couple of weeks (starting next week) which will probably be more of a southwest flow which typically leads to stormier/more active weather for our area.

Will this mean Omaha will get big snowstorms? Obviously, who knows but the odds will be higher anyway if this is, in fact, what happens. Long-range is showing several potential storms for parts of the area before February is over but timing/track are always impossible to know until we get closer.

Crossing my fingers it doesn't happen. We've gone this long without really much "Winter" - no sense in starting now. Hopefully, it ends up being just rain for us, we could use some...

[Busguy2010]

Looks like fairly decent odds of snow starting Monday afternoon through Tuesday night.

[stormchaser]

Looks like fairly decent odds of snow starting Monday afternoon through Tuesday night.

Yep, though looks like minor accumulations at this point (if anything at all). Possibly a bigger storm next Friday (February 25th) but it's too far out to have any confidence...

[Omaha Cowboy]

Looks like fairly decent odds of snow starting Monday afternoon through Tuesday night.

Yep, though looks like minor accumulations at this point (if anything at all). Possibly a bigger storm next Friday (February 25th) but it's too far out to have any confidence...

Good to hear. The lesser to nothing as it relates to frozen precipitation the better…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Busguy2010]

Good to hear. The lesser to nothing as it relates to frozen precipitation the better…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

While we definitely disagree on that front, at least you acknowledge this winter (or rather, lack thereof) has been quite the anomaly. I think this winter is shaping up to be one of the warmest and driest since record keeping began about 150 years ago. That is really saying something. I hope we get some semblance of winter weather at the very least one more time this year. Winter is a reason I choose to continue living here and not sellout to Texas, California, or Florida. I could never not experience snow every year. You've had it quite good this year. And it seems spring is literally right around the corner.

[nativeomahan]

Good to hear. The lesser to nothing as it relates to frozen precipitation the better…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

While we definitely disagree on that front, at least you acknowledge this winter (or rather, lack thereof) has been quite the anomaly. I think this winter is shaping up to be one of the warmest and driest since record keeping began about 150 years ago. That is really saying something. I hope we get some semblance of winter weather at the very least one more time this year. Winter is a reason I choose to continue living here and not sellout to Texas, California, or Florida. I could never not experience snow every year. You've had it quite good this year. And it seems spring is literally right around the corner.

January was actually a bit colder than historical average. Same with February so far. Where do you get the idea this was an unusually warm winter?

[Busguy2010]

Where do you get the idea this was an unusually warm winter?

Are you averaging the high and the low? I'm talking about the high. I wont do February yet since its not over. Average highs vs observed average highs this meteorological winter:

December - 37.7 vs 47.2 (+9.5)
January - 33.6 vs 34.7 (+1.1)
Overall average high = (+5.3)

Even if you do average the low with the high, you get...

December - 28.75 vs 36.15 (+7.4)
January - 24.4 vs 23 (-1.4)
Overall average (low and high) = (+3)

[Busguy2010]

So as you can see, the overall winter has been above average, either way you spin it. I will give you that January low and high averaged was colder than normal, but that was only thanks to a handful of bitterly cold days mixed in with the overall warmer trend...

In terms of highs in January we had 19 days reach above average, 8 days that were average, and 4 days below average

[stormchaser]

I’m not sure what planet someone would be living on to honestly think this hasn’t been an unusually warm winter (no offense intended). But honestly, aside from a few shots of arctic air, this hasn’t been “Winter” at all. Heck, we had severe weather and tornadoes in the middle of December…

[Omaha Cowboy]

It appears that Omaha will likely dodge another bullet this coming week as it relates to frozen precipitation..

But-

Randby’s week long forecast indicated winds chills reaching nearly 20 below Wednesday morning. Yikes!…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Cermak]

I was over in Des Moines a few weeks ago they had way more snow than we had. I hope we can get some precipitation soon, even if it’s snow. Usually when we get snow this late in the winter it melts fairly quickly due to the longer days. Incredibly dry winter we’ve had so far.

[skinzfan23]

It has been an interesting winter so far. My in-laws live in Cedar Rapids, IA and usually we are about 5 degrees warmer, this year, they are having their normal winter weather with extreme cold and snow, but as for Omaha, there have been numerous days when we were 20-25 degrees warmer, sometimes up to 35 degrees warmer they they have been.

We definitely need some moisture soon

[stormchaser]

It has been an interesting winter so far. My in-laws live in Cedar Rapids, IA and usually we are about 5 degrees warmer, this year, they are having their normal winter weather with extreme cold and snow, but as for Omaha, there have been numerous days when we were 20-25 degrees warmer, sometimes up to 35 degrees warmer they they have been.

We definitely need some moisture soon

Yep, mostly because we've had a "split flow" for most of this Winter with a jetstream to our north and another to our south making it so most storms (like the one today and tomorrow) either pass to our north or to our south (like the one expected this week Thursday) - putting much of NE pretty much too for north or too far south for most of the precip with just minor stuff happening in our local area.

The 2 jets merge to our east and have caused areas east of here like Cedar Rapids and northern IL and northeastern states to get a bunch of snow. Also, the jet to our north has mostly kept the arctic air north of here into the Dakotas and MN with just occasional shots making it this far south.

Eastern ND and northwestern MN, in particular, have had a rough Winter - I bet they've had at least 10 blizzard warnings so far along with long stretches of brutal cold. I realize this is pretty normal for up there (I spent much of my life in MN) but it's been worse this year than other years.

[ShawJ]

I know Omaha is no stranger to windy days, but this winter has felt extraordinarily windy.

[GetUrban]

It has been an interesting winter so far. My in-laws live in Cedar Rapids, IA and usually we are about 5 degrees warmer, this year, they are having their normal winter weather with extreme cold and snow, but as for Omaha, there have been numerous days when we were 20-25 degrees warmer, sometimes up to 35 degrees warmer they they have been.

We definitely need some moisture soon

Yep, mostly because we've had a "split flow" for most of this Winter with a jetstream to our north and another to our south making it so most storms (like the one today and tomorrow) either pass to our north or to our south (like the one expected this week Thursday) - putting much of NE pretty much too for north or too far south for most of the precip with just minor stuff happening in our local area.

The 2 jets merge to our east and have caused areas east of here like Cedar Rapids and northern IL and northeastern states to get a bunch of snow. Also, the jet to our north has mostly kept the arctic air north of here into the Dakotas and MN with just occasional shots making it this far south.

Eastern ND and northwestern MN, in particular, have had a rough Winter - I bet they've had at least 10 blizzard warnings so far along with long stretches of brutal cold. I realize this is pretty normal for up there (I spent much of my life in MN) but it's been worse this year than other years.

Do we know what the underlying cause of the split jet is? I would guess it is pools of unusually warm or cool water in the Pacific Ocean. I’m sure it’s more complicated than that. I’m wondering how this pattern compares to the pattern during the prolonged drought of 2012. At least California and the Rockies seem to be getting some much needed moisture. We could use some too, although not all at once.

[Busguy2010]

That mist was pretty heavy last night. Went to sleep at about 4am and checked the status of stuff and everything was like a glazed donut. Was surprised to wake up to as much snow as we did have, even though it is very little in perspective.

[stormchaser]

It has been an interesting winter so far. My in-laws live in Cedar Rapids, IA and usually we are about 5 degrees warmer, this year, they are having their normal winter weather with extreme cold and snow, but as for Omaha, there have been numerous days when we were 20-25 degrees warmer, sometimes up to 35 degrees warmer they they have been.

We definitely need some moisture soon

Yep, mostly because we've had a "split flow" for most of this Winter with a jetstream to our north and another to our south making it so most storms (like the one today and tomorrow) either pass to our north or to our south (like the one expected this week Thursday) - putting much of NE pretty much too for north or too far south for most of the precip with just minor stuff happening in our local area.

The 2 jets merge to our east and have caused areas east of here like Cedar Rapids and northern IL and northeastern states to get a bunch of snow. Also, the jet to our north has mostly kept the arctic air north of here into the Dakotas and MN with just occasional shots making it this far south.

Eastern ND and northwestern MN, in particular, have had a rough Winter - I bet they've had at least 10 blizzard warnings so far along with long stretches of brutal cold. I realize this is pretty normal for up there (I spent much of my life in MN) but it's been worse this year than other years.

Do we know what the underlying cause of the split jet is? I would guess it is pools of unusually warm or cool water in the Pacific Ocean. I’m sure it’s more complicated than that. I’m wondering how this pattern compares to the pattern during the prolonged drought of 2012. At least California and the Rockies seem to be getting some much needed moisture. We could use some too, although not all at once.

Yeah, it's mostly because we are in a La Nina weather pattern currently (albeit everything is a bit further north than it normally would be). A good explanation can be found by watching this video. It pretty much describes our Winter so far based on the La Nina pattern perfectly: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fAvk4RXrW_E

[nativeomahan]

I’m a long way from Omaha this winter, but the weather here in western México has been incredibly consistent…sunny and about 2c warmer than historical averages would dictate. We have had only 1 rainy day since October (which is typical) but typically low temperatures in January and February fall to about 14-16c (57-61f). That just hasn’t happened this year, as it seldom drops below 19c. Last year we had to purchase a blanket for the bed. This year it has remained packed away.

We return to Omaha in mid March. I definitely hope the cold outbreaks are in the rear window by then!

[stormchaser]

I’m a long way from Omaha this winter, but the weather here in western México has been incredibly consistent…sunny and about 2c warmer than historical averages would dictate. We have had only 1 rainy day since October (which is typical) but typically low temperatures in January and February fall to about 14-16c (57-61f). That just hasn’t happened this year, as it seldom drops below 19c. Last year we had to purchase a blanket for the bed. This year it has remained packed away.

We return to Omaha in mid March. I definitely hope the cold outbreaks are in the rear window by then!

I could handle weather like that ;)

Based on the long-range 00z GFS and ECMWF, this current arctic air may end up being our last of the year. Several days showing up on the long-range with highs in the 50s, 60s, and possibly even 70s as we head into March and no real shots of arctic air (though a few days with temps down in the 30s/40s but nothing really cold anyway). Like normal, things can quickly change but for now, anyway, it looks like "Winter" may be over for our area (once we get past the next couple of days).

March 4th (image below) looks super nice currently based on the 00z ECMWF. It's a long way out so take it with a grain of salt but crossing my fingers:

[Busguy2010]

Well, if there's one silver lining, I won't have to burn so much wood in the greenhouse this year, and maybe can plant greens earlier. I don't trust it though. Be 70 on March 4th, but snow on Memorial Day with my luck.

[stormchaser]

Continues to look warm for several days starting on Sunday and lasting much of next week.

Looks like there is potential for our first thunderstorms of the year next Friday (March 4th). Severe weather is unlikely (though isolated marginal stuff would be possible) because dewpoints are depicted to be too low which is typical for this time of year (upper 40s/low 50s are currently depicted, generally you want at least 55 in our area though that can vary some based on elevation and the time of year).

Simulated radar based on the 00z ECMWF for Friday, March 4th showing thunderstorms along an eastward advancing cold front in the area:


Depicted dewpoints based on the 00z ECMWF. If these were at least 5 degrees higher, severe weather would be more likely though isolated stuff will still be possible if things verify as shown:

[Omaha Cowboy]

Good to see Omaha dodged the frozen precipitation bullet for the most part this week..

And also good to see some thunderstorm potential next Friday March 4th. Like we’ve all been saying- we need could use the moisture. Hopefully we get some rain…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Busguy2010]

I could go for some thunder. We not only missed out on the majority of snow chances this season, we really havent had much in the way of enjoyable thunderstorms either (July 10 I don't count because it was the opposite of enjoyable). If we're done with the snow, bring on a gentle rain and frequent thunder. Something you can sit on the porch and enjoy a beer to.

[Omaha Cowboy]

If we're done with the snow, bring on a gentle rain and frequent thunder. Something you can sit on the porch and enjoy a beer to.

We normally don’t see eye to eye regarding our weather preferences-

But this I’ll agree with you 100% …

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Brad]

Its so dry out. I was out picking up sticks in the lawn and you could hear the grass crunching under my feet.

[Brad]

Enjoy the warmth this week....

[Omaha Cowboy]

Bill Randby stated on his late afternoon weather cast, todays high of 70, was the first time in Omaha weather history, within the same meteorologist winter, a 70 degree temperature was reached in both December and February..

A pretty interesting factoid indeed…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Busguy2010]

Mother nature just continues to pile on the warm weather. Even though next week is supposed to be below normal, it isn't by much, so we're talking highs in the upper 30's? Not very cold in my book. I would not be surprised if we hit 75 both tomorrow and Wednesday... As someone who relishes in cooler weather, I hope the warm trend doesn't continue into spring and summer.

[stormchaser]

Looks like severe weather potential is increasing for parts of the area this coming Saturday (March 5th). Whether or not Omaha will be hit will depend on the timing of when the low pressure pushes through our area. Long story short though, don't be surprised if strong/severe storms occur relatively close to Omaha (better odds currently to our east though but that might change - I explain what I'm seeing below)...

The SPC currently has a day 5 outlook for parts of Iowa:


However, the 00z ECMWF shows this threat further west closer to Omaha (albeit still east of town mostly but still close). If the timing of this low slows down more, Omaha itself could be impacted (it wouldn't surprise me if things slow down/trend west some). Damaging wind/hail will be the main threat but some tornado threat does exist as well (very marginal though) with dewpoints depicted in the mid-upper 50s ahead of the low. Limited moisture depth and marginal instability will be limiting factors as far as tornado potential.

Here is a simulated radar from the 00z ECMWF for Saturday at ~4 PM. You can see supercells and/or QLCS storms depicted just east/northeast of Omaha:


Here are the depicted dewpoints for Saturday at 4 PM based on the 00z ECMWF with mid to upper 50s depicted ahead of the low:

[Brad]

Nice little Nebraska Skies video: