2022 Weather Thread

[skinzfan23]

We just got back from Great Wolf Lodge in Minneapolis, where we saw inches of snow on the ground for the first time all year. My kids loved it, but thankfully the streets were all dry. Except for Monday morning, when it snowed for a few hrs, it was nice to see since we didn't have to leave yet. Although I am glad to be back to Omaha and seeing the 60's and 70's.

[ShawJ]

Although I am glad to be back to Omaha and seeing the 60's and 70's.

It's bloody HOT today!

Looks like some opportunity for rain over the next week or so, hopefully it happens.

[nativeomahan]

Senate unanimously voted to make DST permanent. Headed to the house. Afternoon/evening sunlight enjoyers rejoice.

It’s nice to know that our elected leaders actually can agree on the time of day!

[Omaha Cowboy]

Although I am glad to be back to Omaha and seeing the 60's and 70's.

It's bloody HOT today!

Looks like some opportunity for rain over the next week or so, hopefully it happens.

I’m so close to putting a fork in winter weather precipitation..sooooo close. I just don’t want to jinx it..

I’ll wait another week, lol…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[GetUrban]

Although I am glad to be back to Omaha and seeing the 60's and 70's.

It's bloody HOT today!

Looks like some opportunity for rain over the next week or so, hopefully it happens.

I’m so close to putting a fork in winter weather precipitation..sooooo close. I just don’t want to jinx it..

I’ll wait another week, lol…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Like Brad said, we’re not really out of the woods for freak winter weather until May. But I’m going to enjoy DST and my flexible work schedule at this Latitude & Longitude and go with the flow!

[Busguy2010]

Today I learned I may be the only one in opposition of DST on eomaha, but I'm not the only one at all. Sounds like morning people and people with young children really don't like the idea of perpetual DST either. Citing the really late sunrise, and difficulty getting kids to sleep because of bedtime effectively being an hour earlier than actual sunset, and the sun staying out an hour later.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Looks like the Omaha metro received about an inch of beneficial rain last night and overnight..

The weather should be fantastic Saturday and Sunday. Can’t wait to enjoy it …

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[skinzfan23]

We got 1.6 in Bellevue...with the warmer temps (mostly no really cold freezing temps predicted for lows) everything will probably green up pretty nice in the next week or so.

[stormchaser]

The latest 12z HRRR short-range model is depicting around 2" of rain in the Omaha area starting later today and lasting into Wednesday. "Might" see a few flakes mixing in too but most of that should stay southwest of us in Omaha with no accumulation expected locally...

[Cermak]

Really a nice rain, looking forward to seeing it green up soon. After months of brown landscape.

[stormchaser]

Based on the 00z ECMWF, severe weather including the potential for tornadoes is possible this coming Tuesday (March 29th) in our area. It's still several days away yet so tough to know but if things verify as shown, it could be an interesting day in our region. The 00z GFS is similar but has the low further west and depicted dewpoints are about 5 degrees lower (so severe potential would be less if that happens). That said, I'd favor the ECMWF over the GFS - especially this time of year since the GFS tends to have a cold bias (among other issues this time of year).

[stormchaser]

Still looks like there is potential for severe weather in our area on Tuesday. However, there is some question if storms will be able to fire since there is a fair amount of CINH (convective inhibition) being depicted near the low which may prevent storm initiation. If storms do fire, they will probably become supercellular and potentially tornadic with a very similar setup as what occurred a couple of weeks ago and hit the Des Moines area very hard (though this time it looks more in our local area). Only time will tell - as we get closer it will be easier to tell if storm development will actually be limited/prevented.

Depicted dewpoints and location of the low/triple point (basically right over the Omaha area):


Forecast sounding for our area that shows the CINH being depicted (and possibly some capping at the lowest levels):

[stormchaser]

Strong/severe storms still look possible for tomorrow. However, the primary threat for severe weather will probably be mostly south of Omaha where the dewpoints will probably be more ideal.

That said, there may be strong/marginal severe storms in the local area also though the threat here is more conditional and will depend on if things can clear out enough for things to destabilize enough and if dewpoints can reach into the upper 50s (right now they will probably be in the low to mid-50s locally)

[Busguy2010]

Ooo, I see we were added to the slight risk area.

[Busguy2010]

Hmm, Sean's forecast just now didn't look like much in Omaha itself

[almighty_tuna]

I think today's a bust around here.

[Busguy2010]

I think today's a bust around here.

I'm feeling like that too

[stormchaser]

I think today's a bust around here.

There 100% will be strong/severe storms in our area this evening. Impossible to know at this point if Omaha itself will be hit or not though (depends on exactly where the low/warm front ends up) but in the area anyway. Even a chance of a brief tornado or 2 in the area before storms become elevated - possibly very close to Omaha because that's pretty much where the triple point is depicted to be as storms fire.

Obviously, odds are Omaha won't be directly impacted by severe weather. You could say that for almost every severe weather setup though because odds are always greater to say something "won't happen" in a very specific/relatively small area. I wouldn't be so quick to rule out the potential though and would definitely recommend keeping an eye on the weather later today and this evening...

[stormchaser]

Also, if you are suggesting it's going to be a bust because it relatively cool and not humid, it's because we are still north of the warm front (which is pushing up our way from the south). Give it a few hours - temps will be pushing 80 degrees and dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 50s later today (which is marginal and why storms will be mostly elevated except maybe early on which is when there may be a brief tornado threat).

Don't get me wrong - this won't be a significant/widespread event but there will almost certainly be strong/severe storms in the area.

[almighty_tuna]

Potential, yeah, absolutely. I'm thinking it will be further south though, in the Nebraska City/Falls City general area where the warm front will have passed earlier and given more time to heat things up.

[stormchaser]

Potential, yeah, absolutely. I'm thinking it will be further south though, in the Nebraska City/Falls City general area where the warm front will have passed earlier and given more time to heat things up.

Yeah, that could be - depends on the location of the warm front...at least for any tornado potential. There will probably be some elevated hailers north of the warm front too that may prompt a few severe warnings.

Either way, if dewpoints were in the low 60s (for example), this would have been a pretty decent tornado event for our area. Thankfully they won't be high enough for that to happen this time...

[stormchaser]

A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued in a couple of hours for areas south of Omaha near the KS/NE border on south. I wouldn't be surprised if early this evening they issue another watch to include parts of eastern NE/western IA depending on how far north the warm front pushes...

"Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop across central
Kansas and perhaps northwest or north-central OK by 23z. A watch
will likely be needed for parts of this area in the next couple of
hours. Damaging wind gusts and hail are the main hazards expected
with this activity, though a tornado or two also is possible."

More info here: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0338.html

[stormchaser]

New MD issued for eastern NE/western IA for a possible watch needing to be issued - mainly for a threat for large/damaging hail. More info: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0339.html

"SUMMARY...Elevated storms are expected to develop by late afternoon.
These storms will pose a threat for large hail and isolated damaging
winds. A watch is possible later this afternoon.

[almighty_tuna]

It's our first mesoscale discussion of the season!!

[Busguy2010]

It's our first mesoscale discussion of the season!!

I dunno, There really was no break with the storms on December 15th and then again, (forgot the exact date) a few weeks ago. This past winter has me wondering if going forward there will be any kind of predictability as far as "seasons" go.

[Omaha Cowboy]

The NWS has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the Omaha area until 11pm this evening…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[almighty_tuna]

Potential, yeah, absolutely. I'm thinking it will be further south though, in the Nebraska City/Falls City general area where the warm front will have passed earlier and given more time to heat things up.

I’m armchair at best, but it feels good to get a W once in a blue moon.

[stormchaser]

Potential, yeah, absolutely. I'm thinking it will be further south though, in the Nebraska City/Falls City general area where the warm front will have passed earlier and given more time to heat things up.

I’m armchair at best, but it feels good to get a W once in a blue moon.

Nice! Though for what it’s worth, I said the main threat would be south of Omaha too (in my post yesterday) and that a few elevated hailers would happen north of the warm front (which they have northwest of Omaha). ;)

Warm front just didn’t make it far enough north in Omaha to get hit (though severe weather was relatively close still)

[Busguy2010]

I'm pretty disappointed, even though I knew the chance was low. The OmaDome won again it appears. Though, WOWT was saying our chances aren't done till 11pm.

[Busguy2010]

Call me the procurator of unpopular opinion here at eomaha, but I absolutely love the type of precipitation were getting right now. Slushy, sleety, wintry mix and plenty of it. I'm a happy man right now.

[Busguy2010]

I'll be dammed if this rain chance isn't petering out. They were talking at least a "decent" .1" tonight, and nothing measurable yet, with nothing impressive on the way. Fingers crossed for at least something.

[stormchaser]

Probably our last shot of "winter" will occur this upcoming week (toward the middle of the week) with rain/snow and windy/cold weather for a couple of days as a low gets cutoff and sits in WI (bringing relatively cold air down into our area) before the jetstream finally picks it up again and pushes it out of the area.

Things will warm relatively quickly into next weekend and beyond with temps possibly approaching 80 by next Sunday/Monday (the 10th/11th).

Also, a pretty good chance of severe weather sometime around April 12th/13th (possibly both days). Confidence is obviously low considering it's over a week out yet but if models verify as shown, there would be a tornado threat in parts of NE. Something to keep an eye on anyway.

[GetUrban]

Today I learned I may be the only one in opposition of DST on eomaha, but I'm not the only one at all. Sounds like morning people and people with young children really don't like the idea of perpetual DST either. Citing the really late sunrise, and difficulty getting kids to sleep because of bedtime effectively being an hour earlier than actual sunset, and the sun staying out an hour later.

This leg of discussion maybe good to break-out of 2022 weather and move to Current Events or General Discussion, but here’s a good article about the Daylight Savings Time Debate. I’m leaning back toward keeping the twice a year switch back and forth between the two, which actually works for many good reasons which may far out-way people’s annoyances.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... PG_NFLINKS

Sorry, their paywall seems to be blocking the article which I was able to read on Twitter. Maybe that’s the way around it.

[Busguy2010]

This leg of discussion maybe good to break-out of 2022 weather and move to Current Events or General Discussion, but here’s a good article about the Daylight Savings Time Debate. I’m leaning back toward keeping the twice a year switch back and forth between the two, which actually works for many good reasons which may far out-way people’s annoyances.

Yeah, I don't disagree. Its had enough discussion around it, it could have its own thread...

As the days pass, I feel less and less confident the House will pass this bill. I'm seeing more articles coming out in opposition, pointing out that DST itself is what's producing the negative affects that Rubio was pointing out were a result of the time change itself. He tried to make the time change at all was the problem, when in reality, it is the time change to DST that is the problem. If we don't have DST, the whole argument of negative health affects goes away. The science backs standard time, and in learning more about that part of it, I'm more confident we will probably just stick with the system we have...

Though, I'd love it if we could compromise and shorten DST. As-is, DST starts so early, and ends so late, that it almost does feel like standard time doesn't exist, but I savor every last bit of standard time that I get. I want to at least go back to the way it was a couple to a few decades ago. It was around 2007, we went to the current system of changing in early March and early November. Then going back to the early 90's, it was early April and late October, then back further, outside of the mid-70's debacle of permanent DST, it was Late April and mid October. I'd love more of a 50/50 split if we must have DST at all.

[Busguy2010]

I'll continue to be the purveyor of unpopular opinion and say, heck, at least here in Omaha, the spring weather remains unpredictable late enough that it often renders that extra hour at the end of the day useless anyway. I think the Standard time start date of the first Sunday in November is okay, but we should adjust the spring DST start date to later. First Sunday in April, last Sunday in April, and heck, even Mothers day, I'd vote for any of them over the first Sunday in March.

[GetUrban]

This leg of discussion maybe good to break-out of 2022 weather and move to Current Events or General Discussion, but here’s a good article about the Daylight Savings Time Debate. I’m leaning back toward keeping the twice a year switch back and forth between the two, which actually works for many good reasons which may far out-way people’s annoyances.

Yeah, I don't disagree. Its had enough discussion around it, it could have its own thread...

As the days pass, I feel less and less confident the House will pass this bill. I'm seeing more articles coming out in opposition, pointing out that DST itself is what's producing the negative affects that Rubio was pointing out were a result of the time change itself. He tried to make the time change at all was the problem, when in reality, it is the time change to DST that is the problem. If we don't have DST, the whole argument of negative health affects goes away. The science backs standard time, and in learning more about that part of it, I'm more confident we will probably just stick with the system we have...

Though, I'd love it if we could compromise and shorten DST. As-is, DST starts so early, and ends so late, that it almost does feel like standard time doesn't exist, but I savor every last bit of standard time that I get. I want to at least go back to the way it was a couple to a few decades ago. It was around 2007, we went to the current system of changing in early March and early November. Then going back to the early 90's, it was early April and late October, then back further, outside of the mid-70's debacle of permanent DST, it was Late April and mid October. I'd love more of a 50/50 split if we must have DST at all.

I think you’re right about the House being less likely to pass the Senate version as-is. While I enjoy the effects of DST to free-up more hours of daylight for outdoor activities in our region, I don’t think I’ll like the effects of the later sunrise during the colder months. It will probably have the effect of pushing start times for events later past 9:00. Keeping the DL to ST swap pretty much as-is will be the best answer, or maybe compromising to move it back to the way it was before the latest change.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Probably our last shot of "winter" will occur this upcoming week (toward the middle of the week) with rain/snow and windy/cold weather for a couple of days as a low gets cutoff and sits in WI (bringing relatively cold air down into our area) before the jetstream finally picks it up again and pushes it out of the area.

Things will warm relatively quickly into next weekend and beyond with temps possibly approaching 80 by next Sunday/Monday (the 10th/11th).

Also, a pretty good chance of severe weather sometime around April 12th/13th (possibly both days). Confidence is obviously low considering it's over a week out yet but if models verify as shown, there would be a tornado threat in parts of NE. Something to keep an eye on anyway.

It’s good to see the end of any sort of frozen precipitation potential on the horizon. Not that we got much, if any of it this past Winter (which I am very grateful for)..

Time to turn our attention to the Spring severe weather potential..I hope the “Oma-Dome” can provide maximum protection …

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Busguy2010]

It could be. Our typical last freeze is approximately the 2nd week of April, and our latest snow ever was May 2nd, 2013.

[stormchaser]

Still looks like a pretty good chance for severe weather/potential tornadoes on Tuesday (April 12th) in parts of our area. However, the exact location is impossible to know at this point since it will depend on the timing/track of the low, but this looks like it could be a pretty widespread event from eastern NE/western IA down into TX (if things verify as shown on long-range models anyway). SPC is even starting to hint at the potential on their day 4-8 outlook...

[stormchaser]

Severe weather/potential tornado risk is probably increasing for next Wednesday (April 13th) too for our area (and may ultimately end up the primary severe weather day locally) as the low is starting to trend moving out of the Rockies slower than previously shown.

Still lots of unknowns but next Tuesday/Wednesday needs to be watched closely even though the SPC currently has risk areas south of us for both days - I'd expect that to change as we get closer and as things become more certain...