2022 Weather Thread

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Apr 13, 2022 1:19 am

Looks like things verified pretty much as I expected in the local area. Don’t be surprised if there is an increase in tornado warnings soon as the storms transition to more embedded super cells as the low level jet ramps up and storms move into better moisture (mostly east of Omaha though probably). Large hail will be more and more of a threat as these move into the eastern metro as well over the next 30 mins or so…

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Apr 13, 2022 1:24 am

Logan, IA likely had a tornado just east/southeast of it a short time ago based on radar.

nativeomahan · Post by **nativeomahan** » Wed Apr 13, 2022 2:28 am

Being down here in beautiful sunny México with a high temperature of 27c (81f) I still get my phone beeping with alerts from KMTV and WOWT and various other entities, interrupting our dinner. So I go to my patio web cam about 8 pm and see how dark it suddenly got, except for the lightning to the west. A few minutes later the sound of small hail pinging around my patio was not exactly music to my ears. It lasted about 25 minutes! But almost zero wind, which was a blessing. And no power failure.
Can’t wait to see what the morning light will reveal.

Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Wed Apr 13, 2022 1:41 pm

Documenting the storms: KMTV Viewers share pictures as storms roll through

KMTV employees and viewers alike shared a video as Tuesday night's severe weather moved through Nebraska.

damonhynes · Post by **damonhynes** » Wed Apr 13, 2022 1:57 pm

Nice low-risk/low-reward day to start the season off. Drove to Onawa behind the dryline like I expected to, watched the warm front get going as I drove back to Omaha. Had the pleasure of KFAB beclowning themselves with their coverage, as usual.

If this was twenty years ago, I'd have chased the TOR-confirmed storms all the way into central Iowa and I'd probably still be on the road. Might have even seen something. With age comes wisdom, I guess.

Now, back to winter :-)

Post by **Brad** » Wed Apr 13, 2022 2:10 pm

I know we didn't have the super cells the chasers were looking for, but if a photographer was set up in Omaha last night, they probably got some great photos. Between the awesome orange backlit clouds contrasting with the blue out front and then lots of CG lightning, there was some real potential last night for great photos. The views KETV was showing from the Sky Cameras were awesome.

damonhynes · Post by **damonhynes** » Wed Apr 13, 2022 2:22 pm

Brad wrote: Wed Apr 13, 2022 2:10 pm I know we didn't have the super cells the chasers were looking for, but if a photographer was set up in Omaha last night, they probably got some great photos. Between the awesome orange backlit clouds contrasting with the blue out front and then lots of CG lightning, there was some real potential last night for great photos. The views KETV was showing from the Sky Cameras were awesome.

I was WB on I-680 about 8PM and saw the sun below the base of the storms through light rain showers with the occasional filament lightning. Beautiful stuff. Didn't want to pull over to attempt a photo but it was amazing.

I oughta get a new camera to replace my 18 y/o DSLR that predates internet connectivity

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Wed Apr 13, 2022 2:42 pm

damonhynes wrote: Wed Apr 13, 2022 2:22 pm
Brad wrote: Wed Apr 13, 2022 2:10 pm I know we didn't have the super cells the chasers were looking for, but if a photographer was set up in Omaha last night, they probably got some great photos. Between the awesome orange backlit clouds contrasting with the blue out front and then lots of CG lightning, there was some real potential last night for great photos. The views KETV was showing from the Sky Cameras were awesome.
I was WB on I-680 about 8PM and saw the sun below the base of the storms through light rain showers with the occasional filament lightning. Beautiful stuff. Didn't want to pull over to attempt a photo but it was amazing.

I oughta get a new camera to replace my 18 y/o DSLR that predates internet connectivity

The CG lightening was a photographer’s dream yesterday evening into the night. The overall coloring was pretty amazing. I’m just glad the Omaha area dodged another bullet..Now onto some pretty chilly weather the rest of this week…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Wed Apr 13, 2022 3:19 pm

Wow, you ain't lying. For at least the next seven days, it'll be hard pressed to top 50. Now that's music to my ears. And to quote Bill Randby, yesterday's high of 91 was "By far" the record high. I don't like to see that kind of stuff. It was fun to hear the sirens again, though I'm not entirely sure it was warranted. Overall it was a weird storm. Really windy leading up to it, not that windy during it, not very defined viewing it, but great lightning, and not very impactful.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Apr 13, 2022 9:06 pm

damonhynes wrote: Wed Apr 13, 2022 1:57 pm Nice low-risk/low-reward day to start the season off. Drove to Onawa behind the dryline like I expected to, watched the warm front get going as I drove back to Omaha. Had the pleasure of KFAB beclowning themselves with their coverage, as usual.

If this was twenty years ago, I'd have chased the TOR-confirmed storms all the way into central Iowa and I'd probably still be on the road. Might have even seen something. With age comes wisdom, I guess.

Now, back to winter :-)

We ended up in pretty much the same area. I followed the storms until east of Mapleton, IA before I turned around to head back to Omaha to get ready for round 2. The storms at the time were too high based (though some decent hail) to warrant driving too much further east - especially this early in the season. Like you said, back in the day I would have stayed with them and eventually would have been rewarded (since they eventually produced) but I'd rather not be driving back to Omaha at 2 AM either - I'm too old for that stuff anymore.

Cermak · Post by **Cermak** » Fri Apr 15, 2022 1:02 pm

Just a high of 45 predicted for Easter. A cool Easter this year . Hopefully we can get some moisture this weekend a 40% chance Sunday.

Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Fri Apr 15, 2022 1:40 pm

What are the best chances for precipitation this weekend?

damonhynes · Post by **damonhynes** » Fri Apr 15, 2022 2:14 pm

A nine-day-out forecast ain't worth the toilet paper it's printed on, but next Saturday looks like we could hear a rumble.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Fri Apr 15, 2022 2:59 pm

Coyote wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 1:40 pm What are the best chances for precipitation this weekend?

Right now it looks like Saturday night into the first half of Sunday there will be scattered light rain/snow showers in the area but, for the most part, it should be very light (and the better chance for a few flakes will be mostly north of Omaha). The biggest issue will be the relatively cold temps with at least some wind on Sunday (albeit not as strong of wind as other days recently)...

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Fri Apr 15, 2022 3:02 pm

damonhynes wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 2:14 pm A nine-day-out forecast ain't worth the toilet paper it's printed on, but next Saturday looks like we could hear a rumble.

Yeah, more Friday (the 22nd) than Saturday based on the 00z ECMWF anyway but sometime in that time frame, there will probably be strong/severe storms in the area. Depends on timing of things though which obviously is impossible to know at this point.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Sat Apr 16, 2022 1:29 pm

Based on the 00z ECMWF, there is potential for several days of at least scattered severe weather during the upcoming week in our area starting on Thursday (4/21) through Saturday (4/23). Since it's several days out yet, lots of things can of course change (and likely will). The main point of this post is that the threat will start increasing next week. Specifics will be unknown until we get closer...

This is how things look currently though -

Thursday:
Potential exists for scattered supercells including the threat of large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes along an east/west oriented warm front depicted across eastern NE (near I-80) Thursday afternoon/evening. Right now, this could be a day that needs to be watched closely as these types of setups tend to be tornado producers but it will depend on where exactly the warm front ends up. Currently, it's depicted in our area but obviously, that could quickly change. Of course, things like capping, forcing, LCL heights, etc will play a role in if/where storms are able to fire and to what extent which is impossible to know at this point. It probably won't e a huge severe weather day or anything like that but certainly could be a localized severe weather/tornado threat depending on how things play out.

Friday:
Scattered strong/severe storms are possible on Friday. However, the risk is lower than it is on Thursday. Large hail/damaging wind would be the main threats if storms are able to fire (which I'm not 100% convinced they would but certainly potential anyway).

Saturday:
Strong/severe storms are possible over much of the eastern half of NE along a cold front moving across the area. Damaging wind and hail would be the main threat though a low-end threat for brief tornadoes would be possible as well. Really too far out to know any specifics though. Something to keep an eye on.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Sun Apr 17, 2022 12:27 am

So it appears that Monday night/Tuesday morning (so technically April 19th) could be our last freeze. In all my time recording the last freeze, It would be pretty on average, though on the late side of average. It has been every year generally between the 14th and the 20th ish, so I have my fingers crossed that it is the last freeze. I'm ready to plant!

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Mon Apr 18, 2022 12:26 pm

As I indicated a couple of days ago, the threat of severe weather would likely increase in our area later this upcoming week.

So far, the SPC has a day 5 outlook for our area (for Friday) for the threat of supercells including a threat of damaging wind, hail, and tornadoes. Don't be surprised if they add one for Thursday and/or Saturday depending on how things come together.

damonhynes · Post by **damonhynes** » Mon Apr 18, 2022 1:18 pm

Busguy2010 wrote: Sun Apr 17, 2022 12:27 am So it appears that Monday night/Tuesday morning (so technically April 19th) could be our last freeze. In all my time recording the last freeze, It would be pretty on average, though on the late side of average. It has been every year generally between the 14th and the 20th ish, so I have my fingers crossed that it is the last freeze. I'm ready to plant!

I haven't checked my lilacs, but my flowering almond, magnolia and peonies are budding/emerging. Grass is half green.

Post by **Brad** » Mon Apr 18, 2022 6:27 pm

Yes, it has been windier in Nebraska. Scientists are trying to figure out why

https://omaha.com/weather/yes-it-has-be ... er_OWHnews

Nancy Gaarder, OWH wrote:Based on data from 1960 forward, eastern Nebraska is averaging its second-windiest year to date and second-windiest spring to date, said Taylor Nicolaisen, meteorologist with the National Weather Service.

In terms of ridiculously windy days, Omaha, Lincoln and Norfolk all set records for the number of days with wind gusts in excess of 40 mph, he said.

damonhynes · Post by **damonhynes** » Tue Apr 19, 2022 12:39 am

Mike's a good guy, ran into him on a couple of gravel road shoulders before. He seems to have gone more toward astronomy and astrophotography lately.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Tue Apr 19, 2022 1:55 pm

Chilly start to the day. Still 34 degrees just before 9am and below freezing temps overnight last night..

But as usual with our weather, I see highs forecast in the 70’s and 80’s Thursday and Friday..I’d just like to se a decent rain soaker, minus any severe elements. My yard would appreciate it…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Wed Apr 20, 2022 12:48 am

Omaha Cowboy wrote: Tue Apr 19, 2022 1:55 pmI’d just like to se a decent rain soaker, minus any severe elements. My yard would appreciate it…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

It would sure be nice... It has very nearly been six months since Omaha has recorded over an inch of rain in a single day event... Granted, we got a little over 1" between March 21st and 22nd, but that was a light rain spread over a long period of time. October 27th was the last time it rained over an inch in a single day. Feels like forever ago. But I don't hold much hope it'll happen this week. I do think we could end up with over an inch over the course of Wednesday through Sunday. Still not the rain rain i'm yearning for, but I will take what we can get.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Thu Apr 21, 2022 2:38 am

Probably a few strong/severe storms in parts of our area tomorrow later afternoon/evening - mostly for an isolated hail threat. Best chance for severe storms/hail currently looks to be closer to the NE/KS border from near Beatrice to Falls City.

Otherwise, parts of the area should get decent rain out of this (albeit, stuff will be scattered so storms/precip will be intermittent). In Omaha itself, much of this precip will happen after 6 or 7 PM and last on and off until 2 or 3 AM. If we get a few storms moving through the city, they will likely drop some relatively heavy rain though it won't last very long.

Simulated radar from the 00z HRRR for 8 PM tomorrow showing scattered storms moving north/northeast into Omaha:

Friday
Additional strong/severe storms will be possible Friday with a severe weather/tornado threat in parts of western NE and then a damaging wind threat for parts of central/eastern NE into the evening/overnight hours. If anything happens in Omaha, it would likely be well after midnight and will depend if storms can maintain their strength this far east.

Saturday
Saturday, another round of strong/severe storms will be possible in eastern NE/western IA as a cold front pushes into the area. The timing of the front pushing through Omaha will be key if Omaha itself gets hit. Mostly a damaging wind/hail threat with a low-end tornado threat at this point with these potential storms. Too early to know though.

Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Thu Apr 21, 2022 2:41 pm

Thick fog blankets Omaha

Thick fog blankets Omaha and sparks dense fog Advisory

almighty_tuna · Post by **almighty_tuna** » Thu Apr 21, 2022 2:53 pm

stormchaser wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 2:38 am Best chance for severe storms/hail currently looks to be closer to ... Falls City.

Hey!! Quit stealing my moves!!

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Thu Apr 21, 2022 4:01 pm

Thankfully the temps weren't colder like they have been in the mornings lately or that fog could have been black ice and much worse for driving.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Thu Apr 21, 2022 4:30 pm

Pretty frustrating. It seems like over the last year, the majority of our thunderstorm activity has happened after a reasonable hour. Id consider anything after 10pm to be too late for me to fully enjoy.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Thu Apr 21, 2022 6:08 pm

almighty_tuna wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 2:53 pm
stormchaser wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 2:38 am Best chance for severe storms/hail currently looks to be closer to ... Falls City.
Hey!! Quit stealing my moves!!

Really though, just reading the model data and basing it on 16+ years of chasing/forecasting. I definitely wouldn't bother chasing these storms (personally).

Will be interesting to see if the "Omadome" keeps the heaviest rain/storms outside of the city. Latest HRRR seems to think so with Omaha itself getting .3 to .4 inches of rain and heavier stuff both west/east of town where aorund 1 inch of rain is expected (possibly slightly more in spots).

Depicted precip totals based on the 16z HRRR:

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Thu Apr 21, 2022 6:57 pm

The NWS has us at .61" right now. If that pans out, I wont be complaining. Fingers crossed. It feels pretty humid out right now, relatively speaking.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Thu Apr 21, 2022 8:27 pm

Busguy2010 wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 6:57 pm The NWS has us at .61" right now. If that pans out, I wont be complaining. Fingers crossed. It feels pretty humid out right now, relatively speaking.

Yeah, it will just come down to exactly where the storms end up tracking if Omaha will get a decent amount or not.

almighty_tuna · Post by **almighty_tuna** » Thu Apr 21, 2022 9:04 pm

Darn, I guess I'm gonna have to trodge out the fertilizer before it starts raining. I hate lawn care.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Fri Apr 22, 2022 1:00 am

almighty_tuna wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 9:04 pm Darn, I guess I'm gonna have to trodge out the fertilizer before it starts raining. I hate lawn care.

I did the same on Tuesday. Don't know why I thought it would rain more yesterday, but I hope we get something decent enough to dissolve the pellets. Otherwise they will blow all over. Supposed to be windy the next few days... But I think the popup shower was decent enough to at least hydrate it.

Post by **Brad** » Fri Apr 22, 2022 2:47 am

Lol! Fertilizer doesn’t blow away in the wind. heck, even most mowers can’t suck up 99.9% of it. The only thing wind will do is shake the grass causing any pieces that might not already be down at the ground, get there. Let it blow, you’re fine.

As far as the earlier storms, had some wave clouds pass over that were a little bit interesting. We have definitely had better wave clouds. Nice to see some sort of texture in the sky.

Sounds like we are under the gun abut 2am for hail.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Fri Apr 22, 2022 4:22 am

Excuse me, its not something I've done much of.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Fri Apr 22, 2022 4:37 am

Yep, round 2 is developing now west of Lincoln where a few warnings are. Severe thunderstorm watch has been issued, including in Omaha. Large hail is the main risk…

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0140.html

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Fri Apr 22, 2022 5:38 am

Yeah, between Grand Island and York. That's pretty far away, and the storms are moving northeasterly as far as I can see... This is why I hate these late night storms. I'm excited to see them come in, but at the same time, I don't want to lose any sleep over them, because half the time they peter out right over Omaha... Not worth.

Post by **Brad** » Fri Apr 22, 2022 12:26 pm

Some of the loudest thunder I remember right around 2am. Only ended up with 0.10” so far.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Fri Apr 22, 2022 11:04 pm

That thunder definitely woke me up overnight..

Now we’re battling the wind…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Fri Apr 22, 2022 11:11 pm

It definitely was some decent thunder and lightning... But now I sense our rain and storm chances for tomorrow are diminishing. Sounds like our chance for tomorrow evening keeps trending eastward. I'm prepared to end up with next to nothing.