2022 Weather Thread

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Dec 21, 2022 3:16 am

Starting to feel like this storm system is going to be a whole lot of wind and cold and only a little snow. Once again, there is just too much dry air as a result of our drought that models are gradually decreasing the amount of precip produced.

To clarify, I’m not suggesting anyone ignore the warnings but this is looking like a high “bust” potential at this point (IMO)…

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Wed Dec 21, 2022 4:25 am

stormchaser wrote: Wed Dec 21, 2022 3:16 am Starting to feel like this storm system is going to be a whole lot of wind and cold and only a little snow. Once again, there is just too much dry air as a result of our drought that models are gradually decreasing the amount of precip produced.

To clarify, I’m not suggesting anyone ignore the warnings but this is looking like a high “bust” potential at this point (IMO)…

Very convenient, weatherman

(I'm joking). NWS has trended down, as well as Bill Randby, though he's still talking 3", which would be decent. NWS also talking 3" range, but since they've both trended down, I wouldn't be surprised if we end up moreso in the 1-3" range.

However, the temperatures are coming though. Hasn't been this cold since 1989, and we are in the territory of record cold for the 22nd and 23rd. With the wind, its going to be absolutely nasty.

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Wed Dec 21, 2022 4:32 am

Just to clarify, this is really cold for this early in the year, but nowhere near record lows we have had just in the past 5 years. There have been quite a few -10 to -15 and even a -20 reading.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Wed Dec 21, 2022 4:32 am

SoPo wrote: Wed Dec 21, 2022 1:11 am The numbers below are from records that go back to 1948.

December 22 lowest high temperature is -9 in 1989, the same day when the record low at Eppley was -23.

December 23 lowest high temperature is -8 in 1983, the same day when the record low at Eppley was -21 (tied in 1989).

Hi, thank you for your input. Where did you get those numbers? I've tried to find these records many times in the past, but came up short every time. Haven't tried for a while as a result.

Looks like those numbers differ a bit from the NWS (-25,-20), but at any rate, if we end up with a high around -5 on 12/22, that will without a doubt be near record-low-high temp. And been over 30 years since we've been this cold this early.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Wed Dec 21, 2022 4:36 am

skinzfan23 wrote: Wed Dec 21, 2022 4:32 am Just to clarify, this is really cold for this early in the year, but nowhere near record lows we have had just in the past 5 years. There have been quite a few -10 to -15 and even a -20 reading.

Right, right. I think it was just within the last two years, maybe last year it got down to -20 something in mid-February. That was when we had the rolling blackouts.

Its remarkable because its been quite some time since its been this cold this early. Might be catching everybody off-guard.
Especially because its quite the departure from our recently mild Decembers.

Cermak · Post by **Cermak** » Wed Dec 21, 2022 10:58 am

They keep decreasing the snow amounts, I wouldn't be surprised if we just get an inch or two. The real problem will be the wind and cold. This storm has been really hyped, it could still be bad, even a few inches of snow could cause problems if the winds are as high as they are talking.

nativeomahan · Post by **nativeomahan** » Wed Dec 21, 2022 2:07 pm

There’s a reason my husband and I head south (way south) this time of year!

Post by **BRoss** » Wed Dec 21, 2022 2:46 pm

Snowing already around here. I thought it wasn't supposed to start until after noon.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Dec 21, 2022 4:07 pm

BRoss wrote: Wed Dec 21, 2022 2:46 pm Snowing already around here. I thought it wasn't supposed to start until after noon.

It's a result of a warm front pushing up into the area which will push our temps into the 20s and cause the potential for some freezing drizzle this afternoon (though this round of light snow was unexpected).

The stuff this morning shouldn't add up to much in most places anyway.

The main round of snow will be this evening and then the wind will kick in mostly during the overnight hours and last most of the day tomorrow and possibly into early Friday.

Either way we will probably only get 2"-3" of snow out of this but the wind will still cause problems with visibility, etc - especially in open areas.

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Wed Dec 21, 2022 5:12 pm

Kind of interesting that this very light snow/flurry activity over the past couple of hours is invisible on radar. Or at least the radars that I usually check.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Wed Dec 21, 2022 5:55 pm

Holy shizer! NWS now talking -9 for a high tomorrow.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:24 pm

It's worth mentioning, short range models have started trending back upwards with snow totals with the 18z HRRR now showing around 5" of accumulation for Lincoln/Omaha. Also, radar trends out west have already shown heavier bands of snow in western SD/southeast WY than anticipated (which seems to confirm the trend upward). I'm not saying the forecast has changed "yet" (just to clarify), but it's something to keep a very close eye on obviously.

Post by **Brad** » Wed Dec 21, 2022 8:32 pm

stormchaser wrote: Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:24 pm It's worth mentioning, short range models have started trending back upwards with snow totals with the 18z HRRR now showing around 5" of accumulation for Lincoln/Omaha. Also, radar trends out west have already shown heavier bands of snow in western SD/southeast WY than anticipated (which seems to confirm the trend upward). I'm not saying the forecast has changed "yet" (just to clarify), but it's something to keep a very close eye on obviously.

I really know nothing about winter forecasting. I have a decent handle on severe weather, but not winter weather. That said, I have heard that at some point you need to stop looking at the models for winter storms because its "Too close" to the storm and not as accurate. Is this true?

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Dec 21, 2022 8:47 pm

Brad wrote: Wed Dec 21, 2022 8:32 pm
stormchaser wrote: Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:24 pm It's worth mentioning, short range models have started trending back upwards with snow totals with the 18z HRRR now showing around 5" of accumulation for Lincoln/Omaha. Also, radar trends out west have already shown heavier bands of snow in western SD/southeast WY than anticipated (which seems to confirm the trend upward). I'm not saying the forecast has changed "yet" (just to clarify), but it's something to keep a very close eye on obviously.
I really know nothing about winter forecasting. I have a decent handle on severe weather, but not winter weather. That said, I have heard that at some point you need to stop looking at the models for winter storms because its "Too close" to the storm and not as accurate. Is this true?

Nah, not that I’m aware of anyway. From my experience, the closer the better as it gives that much more time/data for the models to compute what will happen.

Often times models struggle until a storm system is “on shore” because the data sampled is less than stellar out in the ocean (for obvious reasons)but once it’s on land, it’s improved due to the ballon launches, etc from the local NWS offices and in turn, model runs are refined based on that data (from how I understand it anyway).

Cermak · Post by **Cermak** » Thu Dec 22, 2022 1:04 am

Snowing now in SW Omaha, somewhat big fluffy flakes. Probably a moderate snow , not heavy.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Thu Dec 22, 2022 2:37 am

Based on radar trends and short range models, the heavier snow is likely to pass between I-80 and the KS border where a few places could see totals approaching 6” of snow.

In Omaha itself, it’s a tough call. I’m still thinking 2-3” of snow here but we are right on the line so a small shift north could mean more and a small shift south could mean less…

Cermak · Post by **Cermak** » Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:06 am

The wind is really picking up outside. Doesn't really look like that much snow so far maybe an inch.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:15 am

Cermak wrote: Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:06 am The wind is really picking up outside. Doesn't really look like that much snow so far maybe an inch.

Yeah, the main round of snow is still to our west near Grand Island, etc with another lighter round just moving into western Omaha now…

Post by **Brad** » Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:45 am

We got about a half inch during the 7pm band of snow that came though.
Now its really coming down with this 9:30pm band of snow.
About 60 miles west of this current snow band is the main snow area. I was thinking after 11, but seems like it might get here a little before that.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Thu Dec 22, 2022 4:44 am

Been a while since the weather's been so frightful

The wind is the main thing. Just warning ya now if you keep any vehicle outside, run it for a while tonight.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Thu Dec 22, 2022 5:23 am

WOW all sudden in the last 20 minutes or so, the snow has started coming in hot haha

Cermak · Post by **Cermak** » Thu Dec 22, 2022 1:46 pm

-13 right now with -37 wind chill. Nasty dangerous cold out right now. Looks like just a couple inches of new snow. It's been a while since we've had a cold snap this harsh in December. Usually these occur in January or February. Some years like last winter it never got real cold. Last winter was very mild.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Thu Dec 22, 2022 2:38 pm

Must be my good fortune..

My SUV, which stayed parked outside in my driveway, started up this morning..

I’ll let it run for about 30 or so minutes now..then about every few hours, turn it over again to keep it flowing. Making sure, in this extreme weather, to have your gas tank at least 3/4’s full is also a must..

We didn’t get much snow, but it’s brutally cold out there folks. Stay warm…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Thu Dec 22, 2022 2:58 pm

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Thu Dec 22, 2022 7:30 pm

Even though I ran my truck for a half hour last night around 10 after having come home from work so it was already not cold to the bone, it still BARELY started this morning at 8. Having it sat outside in the parking lot for about 4 hours, it barely started on my lunch break, so I'd recommend running your vehicle every 2 hours or so the next day or two.

Post by **Brad** » Thu Dec 22, 2022 10:34 pm

I have a Honda with 218,000+ miles on it and it started right up, no problems at all.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Fri Dec 23, 2022 4:32 am

I drive an old beater. 1994, 210,000 miles. Usually a very good boi, but hey I cant blame him as today was near record low territory.

Uffda · Post by **Uffda** » Fri Dec 23, 2022 2:43 pm

Was suppose to fly from st Pete to Sioux Falls yesterday for Christmas and on the way to airport received notification that flight was cancelled. Sioux Falls airport shut down at 1 pm yesterday (TH) until 6 tonight. Got another flight for 730 am Saturday- fingers crossed

Cermak · Post by **Cermak** » Fri Dec 23, 2022 3:04 pm

This storm came at a really bad time. Although we didn't get much snow the extreme cold and wind have been disruptive. It looks like things should start to warm up a little Christmas Day then later next week 40's which will be fantastic.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Sun Dec 25, 2022 4:23 pm

We should get some Christmas snow and/or a mix later this afternoon into this evening. It won’t add up to much (probably just a dusting) but it might be enough to make things slick…

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Dec 27, 2022 3:51 pm

Long range models are starting to show potential for a bigger winter storm early next week. Considering how far out it is and how unreliable models have been this winter in this time frame, my confidence this will happen is very low.

Regardless, it's something to keep an eye on anyway...

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Tue Dec 27, 2022 9:45 pm

Anthony Copeland wasn't impressed.

Cermak · Post by **Cermak** » Tue Dec 27, 2022 10:01 pm

Except for the extreme cold we kind of dodged this last storm. To the east of us in Iowa it was much worse, about 4-5 inches with blizzard conditions in north central part of the state. Most of Omaha only saw a couple of inches.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Dec 27, 2022 10:08 pm

Busguy2010 wrote: Tue Dec 27, 2022 9:45 pm Anthony Copeland wasn't impressed.

Nobody should be considering how far out it is and how there isn't great model agreement "yet". Both the GFS and ECMWF show the potential storm. The ECMWF, however, shows a much stronger storm than the GFS does. Typically the ECMWF is more reliable - but both long range models have been pretty bad this winter.

Either way, just something to keep an eye on and hopefully we get something decent out of it. Right now the most likely scenario is a mix of precip late this weekend/early next week but only time will tell.

It's worth mentioning, **many** TV Meteorologists are either lazy or clueless when it comes to forecasting (in my experience anyway). They often lock in on to one single forecast model and put very little effort into looking for trends or at any of the other forecast models (when you forecast for yourself and look at the model data, you'll often cringe at the info they put out there because you can tell how little effort they put in to it). It's easy for them to say "it won't happen" or "or I'm not expecting much" because odds are always WAY higher that will be true in the local area. Obviously it's important to not hype things too and I'm wrong WAYYYYY more often than I'm right when it comes to forecasting but I've chased storms with several TV Meteorologists in the past and ALL of them admitted they basically had no clue what they were doing and relied on me to get us to the storms, etc. They were taught the mathematical side of things in college and did very little in the way of actually interpreting model data and/or field work (i.e. being out there watching first hand the storms). It often shows in the info they put out there (IMO anyway). Some are better than others though. Bill Randby, for example, is pretty good.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Tue Dec 27, 2022 10:54 pm

stormchaser wrote: Tue Dec 27, 2022 10:08 pm It's worth mentioning, **many** TV Meteorologists are either lazy or clueless when it comes to forecasting (in my experience anyway).

I get what you're saying. But they also have to be "crowd pleasers" in a sense. That's why I paint a picture for myself based on three sources. You and your information, the NWS, and the local meteorologists.

My apologies, I realized he was talking about Thursday.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Dec 28, 2022 1:55 am

Busguy2010 wrote: Tue Dec 27, 2022 10:54 pm My apologies, I realized he was talking about Thursday.

No worries at all, it’s easy to get wires crossed sometimes…

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Dec 28, 2022 3:15 pm

Odds continue to increase that much of Nebraska will be impacted by a strong winter storm in the Sunday through Tuesday time frame early next week.

Right now, heavy snow is depicted to occur mostly west/northwest of Omaha. If the latest ECMWF verifies, Omaha itself may be dealing with an ice storm (unfortunately).

Either way, it’s still too far out to know what to expect but model trends on the ECMWF are concerning. The GFS is trending toward the ECMWF but tracks the storm further west. Considering the run to run consistency of the ECMWF, I’m favoring it over the GFS currently but until there is better model agreement, confidence continues to be low.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Sat Dec 31, 2022 3:49 pm

A winter storm watch has been issued for much of central/western NE (northwest of Omaha).

https://www.weather.gov

In Omaha itself, it will “hopefully” stay warm enough for mostly rain before a possible switch to mix/snow before precip ends. How long that changeover takes will probably be key in our area if this storm is “impactful”. Either way some much needed precip again.

Uffda · Post by **Uffda** » Sun Jan 01, 2023 5:41 pm

Just spent a week visiting family outside Sioux Falls. Arrived on the 24th to -13° temp and windchill down in the -30s and -40s. Temps warmed to the 30s as the week went on. Then we had a snowstorm come through Thursday night that quickly dropped about 3” of snow. I was getting lots of practice shoveling snow.

Left on the 31st but they are predicting 7-11” of inches by Tuesday.

On a side note, I live just north of Tampa, and when I got home, I saw I have many outside plants that suffered-died from the cold temps down here - I think there were at least 3 nights, while I was gone, that the temp dropped into the 20s and only warmed up to 40ish.