2023 Weather Thread

[Omaha Cowboy]

This one rivals your “Thread Revival” posts from years gone by, lol…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[almighty_tuna]

Funny you should mention that. It made its own revival very recently I won't spoil the surprise, you'll just have to find it yourself.

[stormchaser]

Just a quick update...

The potential storm system for the middle of this upcoming week has trended east (and warmer) and at this point, would pretty much be a non-event for our area (assuming things don't change which they still could obviously).

[BRoss]

(and warmer)

I'll take that! Looking nice on the extended forecast right now.

[stormchaser]

(and warmer)

I'll take that! Looking nice on the extended forecast right now.

I agree! No complaints here

[Omaha Cowboy]

Just a quick update...

The potential storm system for the middle of this upcoming week has trended east (and warmer) and at this point, would pretty much be a non-event for our area (assuming things don't change which they still could obviously).

Music to my ears …

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Cermak]

Fantastic weekend weather for early February. Still less than 10 inches of snow so far for this winter. But the cold snap in late December was brutal.

[Coyote]

January much wetter in 2023 than a year ago
After 2022, 99 percent of Nebraska was experiencing drought conditions, but 2023 has turned a new, wetter leaf.

NORFOLK, Neb. -- Of the past 127 years, 2022 was the fourth-driest year for the state of Nebraska. That has left drought conditions across 99 percent of the state. So far, 2023 has turned a new, wetter leaf, with many areas of the state experiencing much higher precipitation. Hartington's January precipitation of 2.07" was over 300 percent higher than last year. Falls City, Tekamah and Norfolk have also seen increases over 200 percent. Fremont, Columbus, Beatrice, Lincoln and Omaha have also seen significant increases from the first month of last year.

Unfortunately, winter precipitation doesn't typically add up to much. National Weather Service officials say a wet spring would be able to make a much larger dent in the current drought designations.

[stormchaser]

Some forecast models have been trending back west and colder with the storm system to move through our region tomorrow night into Thursday. If this happens, there "could" be some snow in the area (especially in IA). I know some of the local media is latching on to this idea more than I think maybe they should "yet" anyway.

Personally I'm still thinking the main snow potential is more of a Des Moines area on east threat but I guess we will see. If models keep trending west, then I'll start to believe it and the potential for some snow in Omaha will increase.

Something to be aware of and to keep an eye on at least.

[Cermak]

I wouldn't mind a little snow from this system, maybe an inch. I get tired of looking at all the brown this time of year. Yesterday was another fantastic February day, very pleasant out, sunny, low 50's not much if any wind.

[stormchaser]

I wouldn't mind a little snow from this system, maybe an inch. I get tired of looking at all the brown this time of year. Yesterday was another fantastic February day, very pleasant out, sunny, low 50's not much if any wind.

Yeah, while a few flakes or sprinkles will be possible today, accumulations look pretty unlikely in our area.

A relatively nice stretch of weather will start Saturday. However, there will be several days in there that are on the windy side so they won't feel as warm as the temp shows.

Another fast moving storm system is expected to move through the area early next week (probably Tuesday - which currently looks to impact mostly Iowa and "shouldn't" be a big deal).

Then another potentially more impactful snow producer/winter storm next week Thursday/Friday (Feb 16/17) is depicted to move through our area. Of course since it's a week out, confidence is low. However, both the GFS and ECMWF are showing this potentially strong storm system (although the tracks are somewhat different they are in relatively good agreement considering how far out it is). Typically this would increase the odds this storm system will happen but considering how models have performed this winter, who knows. It wouldn't surprise me though (especially given our warm up this weekend into next week). Something to watch as in the coming days like normal.

[stormchaser]

Still looking like a decent rain event early this week (mostly Tuesday) with rain totals depicted to be around .5”.

Then attention shifts towards a potential accumulating snow event Wednesday night/Thursday. Blowing snow may also be an issue with this storm. Still too early to be confident but odds continue to increase. If model trends continue, this could end up being a pretty impactful storm for the local area.

[stormchaser]

High temps today in Omaha should be around 60 degrees - our warmest yet so far this year (though there will be some wind so it may not feel as warm - it will be sunny/nice though so no complaints here).

Late tonight, rain will start moving into the area and we should get a good soaking rain out of it which is obviously good (I'm still thinking around .5" in Omaha itself but some places may be more - especially if there ends up being any thundershowers).

Then our attention turns toward a potential accumulating snow event for Wednesday night and Thursday. However, things have become less certain with this storm as models are not in good agreement (considering how relatively close we are to this event anyway) making it difficult to know what to expect.

The ECMWF is the most "agressive" for our area and shows Omaha getting several inches of snow. The GFS, on the other hand, has shifted the track of this storm far enough south that we'd be on the northern edge of the snow with most accumulations staying south of here. The NAM is showing a weaker low pressure than the other 2 and limits how much moisture the storm taps in to until it's mostly east of here.

Long story short, confidence is low with this storm. Hopefully things will start becoming more clear later today but I guess we will see.

[stormchaser]

A few strong/severe storms will be possible tomorrow afternoon south of Omaha from Beatrice to Nebraska City/Falls City and into adjacent parts of southwest IA. Not a huge threat but hail and an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.

[BRoss]

Felt like spring today. I was loving it!

[Brad]

Glancing at the computer models, looks like we are going to get anywhere from 1" to 22" over the news few days... LOL

[Louie]

Certainly getting some today.

[stormchaser]

Glancing at the computer models, looks like we are going to get anywhere from 1" to 22" over the news few days... LOL

Yeah, the models are terrible this year. I'm "assuming" most of the heaviest stuff will stay south of Omaha but who knows...

[Omaha Cowboy]

Glancing at the computer models, looks like we are going to get anywhere from 1" to 22" over the news few days... LOL

Yeah, the models are terrible this year. I'm "assuming" most of the heaviest stuff will stay south of Omaha but who knows...

KETV is currently predicting 2-4 inches for the Omaha area..Heavier further south..

Of course, I’m hoping for just a dusting to an inch..or nothing would be great too …

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[stormchaser]

Glancing at the computer models, looks like we are going to get anywhere from 1" to 22" over the news few days... LOL

Yeah, the models are terrible this year. I'm "assuming" most of the heaviest stuff will stay south of Omaha but who knows...

KETV is currently predicting 2-4 inches for the Omaha area..Heavier further south..

Of course, I’m hoping for just a dusting to an inch..or nothing would be great too …

Ciao..LiO…Peace

I'd lean toward less than that - probably a dusting up to 2" in Omaha (dusting on the north side, up to 2" in Papillion/Bellevue), 2"-4" just south of town (Springfield/Plattsmouth on south) and 4"-6"+ near and south of Nebraska City to Falls City. Of course it all depends on the exact track of the storm and how quickly dry air pushes in to Omaha from the northwest...

[stormchaser]

Then again the NWS is saying up to 7” of snow in Omaha so I guess we will see

[Omaha Cowboy]

Then again the NWS is saying up to 7” of snow in Omaha so I guess we will see

Man- let’s hope that’s not the case..

But you’re right, we’ll see for sure…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Brad]

I thought this was an interesting forecast on the NWS website:

Screenshot 2023-02-14 204144.png

[Cermak]

Pretty much every snowstorm predicted for Omaha this winter has been a bust. I would say we are due to get some decent snow. I will be surprised if we don't get at least 3 inches from this. We haven't even had 10 inches this winter and didn't have much last winter as well.

[stormchaser]

Winter storm warning has been issued for Omaha with 5-7” of snow and strong wind expected. Should start after 3 today.

To clarify, this storm still has a high "bust" potential for Omaha just like basically every storm this year as there will be a very sharp cut off in snow totals on the north side. If the track shifts south at all or if the dry air pushes in quicker,, we will end up with less snow. I'm not overly optimistic that Omaha will get snow totals as high as the official forecast calls for but I guess we will see.

That being said, with the wind whatever snow we get will probably cause some travel issues.

[stormchaser]

Personally I'm still sticking to my original forecast where Omaha will only get a dusting up to 2" of snow (a dusting on the north side of Omaha, up to 2" of snow for Papillion/Bellevue) with heavier snow totals remaining south of town. I'm surprised the NWS is going as agressive with their depicted snow totals as they are for Omaha/Douglas County. Based on everything I've seen, odds of that happening are pretty low. But maybe I'm missing something...

[skinzfan23]

Personally I'm still sticking to my original forecast where Omaha will only get a dusting up to 2" of snow (a dusting on the north side of Omaha, up to 2" of snow for Papillion/Bellevue) with heavier snow totals remaining south of town. I'm surprised the NWS is going as agressive with their depicted snow totals as they are for Omaha/Douglas County. Based on everything I've seen, odds of that happening are pretty low. But maybe I'm missing something...

I think I will stick with your forecast as well, as has been mentioned a lot this year, the models haven't been very good and every other time the Omadome has won out.

[stormchaser]

Personally I'm still sticking to my original forecast where Omaha will only get a dusting up to 2" of snow (a dusting on the north side of Omaha, up to 2" of snow for Papillion/Bellevue) with heavier snow totals remaining south of town. I'm surprised the NWS is going as agressive with their depicted snow totals as they are for Omaha/Douglas County. Based on everything I've seen, odds of that happening are pretty low. But maybe I'm missing something...

I think I will stick with your forecast as well, as has been mentioned a lot this year, the models haven't been very good and every other time the Omadome has won out.

Yep, plus there are just SO many things that have to come together perfectly for the snow totals they're predicting to actually happen. The track of the storm, the amount of dry air and how quickly it pushes in from the northwest and cuts off precip, the speed the precip moves through, how quickly the precip actually develops (some models hold off longer than others), etc etc. I know this is true in basically every potential snow storm but we've seen this same scenario repeated several times this winter where Omaha is on the northern edge and not one has actually verfied as shown/depicted by most models.

The HRRR model in particular has echoed my minimal snow totals for Omaha itself for the last several runs now as has the 3km NAM model which continues to decrease our chances we will get anything anywhere close to the NWS forecast. The GFS model which is what is showing Omaha being hit the hardest is an outlier at this point so I doubt what it shows will actually verify.

Only time will tell though...

[almighty_tuna]

My forecast is 100% chance of working from home, followed by hot tea and a fire while watching a movie. The weather can do what it wants.

[Brad]

My forecast is 100% chance of working from home, followed by hot tea and a fire while watching a movie. The weather can do what it wants.

Is the liquor store already closed?

[stormchaser]

Odds continue to increase that we will only get minor snow accumulations in Omaha itself (if even that) as yet again it appears the dry air is going to win out. Based on the 18z model run anyway and looking at the latest surface maps showing a large area of dry air pushing in from the northwest (dewpoints in the single digits).

[stormchaser]

Dewpoint is down to 18 from around 25 a few hours ago (and it will continue to drop meaning the dry air is taking over).

The NWS updated their forecast and trended down slightly (still saying 3"-6" for Omaha). I personally still think that is way over done based on the trends I'm seeing including the fairly rapid drop in Dewpoints. I'm still going with a dusting on the north side of Omaha and up to 2 inches on the south.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Dewpoint is down to 18 from around 25 a few hours ago (and it will continue to drop meaning the dry air is taking over).

The NWS updated their forecast and trended down slightly (still saying 3"-6" for Omaha). I personally still think that is way over done based on the trends I'm seeing including the fairly rapid drop in Dewpoints. I'm still going with a dusting on the north side of Omaha and up to 2 inches on the south.

And I certainly hope you are correct …

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Louie]

Omadome still fighting this as it moves northeast.

[Cermak]

At least 1.5 inches at my house SW Omaha this morning and it's still coming down.

[stormchaser]

Welp, my forecast failed. Dry air held on for much of the night but heavy snow has moved into Omaha now so several inches of accumulation is likely…

[stormchaser]

I was just out on the roads and the interstate, etc are pretty bad. I'd say we currently have around 5" or 6" of snow...

[Louie]

First big one of the year

[Cermak]

At least 1.5 inches at my house SW Omaha this morning and it's still coming down.

Probably more like 4-5 inches at my house. Local weather forecasters spot on with this storm. No bust or snow switching over to rain this time , Congrats you guys got it right .

[Coyote]