2023 Weather Thread

[Cermak]

A steady rain today. With all the rain in California maybe we will start seeing more precipitation here and help ease the drought. It does seem like we have been getting more precipitation the last few weeks.

[Cermak]

A steady rain today. With all the rain in California maybe we will start seeing more precipitation here and help ease the drought. It does seem like we have been getting more precipitation the last few weeks.

Now changing to snow, 84th and W. Center rd.

[stormchaser]

Winter just doesn’t want to let up with potential for a strong winter storm this week.

First things first - a brief taste of Spring (albeit windy). We will warm into the low to mid-60s by this coming Wednesday ahead of the potentially strong winter storm for Thursday/Friday.

Both the GFS and ECMWF have been in pretty good agreement in showing what would be a potential blizzard for parts of the area (more on that in a sec though I need to stress the word “potential” as it’s too far out to really know yet).

However, there are slight differences in depicted tracks between the 2 models (which ultimately will determine what happens locally) with the GFS bringing more rain to Omaha itself and the ECMWF favoring more snow with several inches of snow possible (though both show it starting as rain and switching to snow in Omaha - probably wind-driven snow).

The GFS in particular has been showing what would be a potential blizzard (especially for areas north/northwest of us again). The ECMWF doesn’t show “as” strong of a storm but still strong enough to cause some issues.

Still plenty of time for things to change but unfortunately currently it doesn’t look like Winter is over yet…

[Cermak]

60 on Wednesday then 24 on Saturday. Unsettled weather with no 70's in sight. Not a real nice March so far.

[stormchaser]

Unfortunately odds continue to increase that Omaha will get accumulating snow with wind this coming Thursday into early Friday with blizzard conditions possible (mostly north of us though we will probably have blowing snow issues here too).

I wouldn’t be surprised to see winter storm watches being issued for Thursday for parts of the area starting tomorrow - including possibly Omaha (though odds are higher north of us).

Precip will likely start as rain Wednesday into Thursday but change to snow (especially Thursday evening and overnight). This snow will probably be heavy enough to cause some travel issue though it is unclear how much snow will actually fall here still. Things have been trending towards several inches though but still plenty of unknowns and time for things to change.

Fingers crossed this turn into mostly just a rain event.

[stormchaser]

The latest GFS and ECMWF runs from today have given some hope that this storm will end up not being a big deal in our local area. Things have transitioned north some and toward a weaker storm system. We may still get a little snow but nothing too concerning (if things verify as currently shown so far today). Still difficult to really know though.

Fingers crossed this trend continues.

[BRoss]

I hope so! I'm sick of winter.

[stormchaser]

Winter storm watches have been issued for areas north of Omaha which doesn't suprirse me based on yesterday's model runs. We will still get a little snow here in town (a dusting up to 2 inches of accumulation) along with wind. Otherwise, it should moslty be rain...hopefully.

Current watches/advisories for our area (as of 7:20 AM). Blue are counties in a winter storm watch,, purprle are counties in a winter weather advisory:

[skinzfan23]

How is the weather looking across the state of NE? I am thinking of leaving Omaha around 9 am to head to Denver to watch Creighton play.

[stormchaser]

How is the weather looking across the state of NE? I am thinking of leaving Omaha around 9 am to head to Denver to watch Creighton play.

Depends if you mean tomorrow or Friday that you're leaving .

If you're leaving tomorrow at 9 am, you'll probably hit the transition line from rain to snow somewhere west of Lincoln (maybe Grand Island area roughly) as you're traveling west as the transition line is gradually pushing towards Omaha. The main snow accumulations should remain mostly in northeast NE though there will be some basically all the way to the CO border (albeit they look fairly minor right now - mostly areas of a dusting up to 2 inches along I-80). The strong wind would probably be your biggest challenge since it will be a north/northwesterly wind and you're on a east/west road (obviously) which will cause at least some visibility issues if it's snowing and will be tough at times with your vehicle being blown around (especially around the semi truck drivers).

If you don't plan to leave until Friday morning, you'll really only need to worry about some wind issues (though not as strong) and some unseasonably cold temps...

[skinzfan23]

Thank you, much better forecast (personalized) than I can get from the local weatherman.

I am planning on leaving on Thurs morning to make the drive since they play at 3 pm on Friday.

[stormchaser]

Thank you, much better forecast (personalized) than I can get from the local weatherman.

I am planning on leaving on Thurs morning to make the drive since they play at 3 pm on Friday.

Ahh, makes sense. You're welcome! Obviously don't hold me to the timing part of things (I'm just "guesstimating" based on current model data). It ultimately will depend on the exact speed the storm moves through as to exactly when and where the transition line will be from rain to snow. The latest HRRR model shows it moving through a couple hours earlier than what I said so it could easilly be a mix or snowing by the time you leave in Omaha too (depending on how things play out).

[Omaha Cowboy]

Any weather related forecast updates?..

I know it’s been snowing in the 120th and Blondo area for close to an hour. Starting to stick on cars now…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[stormchaser]

Any weather related forecast updates?..

I know it’s been snowing in the 120th and Blondo area for close to an hour. Starting to stick on cars now…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Pretty much unchanged - minor accumulations and a few icy/slick spots from the wind/temp drop. Precip should mostly end in a few hours or by early evening.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Any weather related forecast updates?..

I know it’s been snowing in the 120th and Blondo area for close to an hour. Starting to stick on cars now…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Pretty much unchanged - minor accumulations and a few icy/slick spots from the wind/temp drop. Precip should mostly end in a few hours or by early evening.

Thank you sir. I always appreciate your updates and intel…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[stormchaser]

Any weather related forecast updates?..

I know it’s been snowing in the 120th and Blondo area for close to an hour. Starting to stick on cars now…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Pretty much unchanged - minor accumulations and a few icy/slick spots from the wind/temp drop. Precip should mostly end in a few hours or by early evening.

Thank you sir. I always appreciate your updates and intel…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

You’re welcome!

[Cermak]

Maybe this will be our last snow today till next winter. Hope so.

[stormchaser]

Maybe this will be our last snow today till next winter. Hope so.

Fingers crossed...

Long range doesn't show any snow really for our area but still temps that aren't as warm as you'd hope this time of year unfortunately. (mostly highs in the 40s or low 50s - once we get into early next week anyway).

This weekend is going to be unseasonably cold though, thats for sure.

[damonhynes]

Thunder progged for Wednesday. I'll believe it when the sirens go off, lol.

[BRoss]

It's starting to look like we won't hit 70 this March...

I know things can change quick that far out, but it's not looking promising.

[stormchaser]

If the 00z ECMWF verifies as shown (which is a big "if" at this point), there will be a severe weather threat in parts of the area next week Thursday (March 30th). This would include a threat for tornadoes - again, IF things verified as shown though currently the main threats would be more in the Kearney/Grand Island/Hastings areas but it's impossible to know this far out.

That being said, this time of year it's often difficult for storm systems this far north to tap into good moisture depth and although surface dewpoints are depicted to be sufficient (in the upper 50s to near 60), dewpoints aloft will probably be more questionable (I haven't looked at a skew-t to confirm but it would be meaningless at this point since it's still a week away anyhow).

Simulated radar based on the 00z ECMWF showing isolated storms/potential supercells:


Depicted surface dewpoints based on the 00z ECMWF showing upper 50s/near 60 between I-80 and the NE/KS border:

[damonhynes]

We used to have a game on Stormtrack.org where we'd get a Day 7 setup and we'd predict where to go. I dislike triple-points, so I'd pick Concordia KS and prepare to drift west on US-36.

[stormchaser]

We used to have a game on Stormtrack.org where we'd get a Day 7 setup and we'd predict where to go. I dislike triple-points, so I'd pick Concordia KS and prepare to drift west on US-36.

Yeah, better moisture depth down in that area..

Personally I typicallly like to target the triple point and/or warm front but this time of year, you're better off playing the dry line - so I agree though I'd still keep a close eye on the NE/KS border area west of Hastings.

[Coyote]

Incredible display of the Northern Lights seen across Iowa Thursday night

CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa (Iowa's News Now) — The aurora borealis - or Northern Lights - put on an amazing display across the northern United States on Thursday night. The dancing waves of light were seen into southern Iowa - and visible to the naked eye - quite uncommon this far south!

[stormchaser]

Accumulating snow is possible in Omaha tonight with a narrow band of up to 4 inches right over Omaha (unfortunately). Hopefully it changes…

[skinzfan23]

Omadome

[stormchaser]

Omadome

No luck this time unfortunately (though things did shift north some).

Some impressive totals just north of Omaha with Fremont and Blair reporting 6-7 inches of snow so far and it’s still snowing…

https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?sid=oax

[Coyote]

I see some snow here this morning.

[stormchaser]

I see some snow here this morning.

Yeah, I probably have around 2” of snow at my house in Millard…

[Cermak]

Maybe this will help green up the grass a little. Nothing on sidewalks or streets in SW Omaha.

[skinzfan23]

We got maybe 1/2” in Bellevue

[Coyote]

No baseball today.

[Omaha Cowboy]

I knocked about an inch or so of snow off my car and on to my dry driveway..

Looks like snow accumulated on the yard and my SUV only. Nothing on the pavement, my driveway/sidewalk or street..

Pity though, as I washed and waxed my car yesterday afternoon…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Brad]

I was in Kearney the past 4 days. Here is a shot on the highway east of Kearney. All trucks were stopped waiting to get on the interstate once it finally re-opened.

20230326881A8417.jpg

[skinzfan23]

Wow, that is crazy. We have driven out to Colorado many times for Christmas with family, and thankfully have not had to have this happen

[stormchaser]

Still watching late this week for the potential of severe weather across a portion of the area including the threat for tornadoes - depending on how things play out.

For impacts in Omaha specifically, it will depend on the timing of the low moving through. Currently models have the low pushing through locally sometime early Friday afternoon and consequently the severe weather threat is mostly in the eastern half of Iowa.

However, models are starting to trend slower and it isn't uncommon for things to slow down a fair amount as we get closer (and consequently, the threat would shift more into our area).

In addition to the severe weather potential, we may get some snow Friday evening/overnight in Omaha though the main threat will probably be north/northwest of us (depending on the track of the low). We very well could go from warm to severe weather to snow in a relatively short period of time. Gotta love Spring .

Something to watch/keep an eye on.

[stormchaser]

The SPC has a day 3 "enhanced risk" for severe weather to the east of Omaha including Des Moines and much of the eastern half of Iowa for this coming Friday (though I'd expect this to be upgraded further - probably to a "moderate risk" or "possibly" to a "high risk" but that's unlikely and would mostly be for damaging wind if that's the case).

This includes the risk for fast moving, possibly tornadic supercells initially but fairly rapid upscale growth into more of a damaging wind event should occur. The tornado threat includes at least some risk for a strong tornado (EF-3+) or 2 depending on how things play out.

Timing will need to be watched closely as if this system slows down much more, it coulld shift the threat more into our area - especially considering the main tornado threat will be early on.

Right now the most likely scenario is for supercellular storms to develop in the Atlantic/Carroll Iowa areas during the mid-afternoon hours and quickly push off to the east. Des Moines, Ames and Fort Dodge in particular are currently in the higher risk area for tornadic storms. As things push east of I-35, they should transition to more of a damaging wind event (though tornadoes will still be possible - especially along the warm front in northern IA).

Here is the current SPC outlook for this coming Friday:

[stormchaser]

Also, it's worth mentioning what is shown in this Tweet from Reed Timmer.

Things are definitely setting up in a way that will probably lead to an active severe weather/tornado season in the plains this year which is something we haven't really had for severeal years now. At the very least, early Spring is looking very active currently anyway.

[almighty_tuna]

Never stop chasing!

[stormchaser]

Never stop chasing!

Yep! Although these early Spring setups are always extremely challenging due to the typically insane storm motions.

Trying to keep up with and in posiiton on a storm moving at 60+ mph is basically impossible (without driving like a lunatic anyway).