2023 Weather Thread

Post by **Brad** » Wed Mar 29, 2023 5:39 pm

almighty_tuna wrote: Wed Mar 29, 2023 1:59 pm Never stop chasing!

Make sure you talk about how good Casey's pizza is, and call it a "Midwest Delicacy".... LOL

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Thu Mar 30, 2023 12:20 pm

Brad wrote: Wed Mar 29, 2023 5:39 pm
almighty_tuna wrote: Wed Mar 29, 2023 1:59 pm Never stop chasing!
Make sure you talk about how good Casey's pizza is, and call it a "Midwest Delicacy".... LOL

Lol for sure!

Today should feel very "Spring like" with temps in the 70s - albeit it will be on the windy side. I've noticed lawns starting to green up some and buds on the trees so it won't be long now and we can kiss Winter good bye for a few months.

The chances of this storm system slowing down enough to effect Omaha specifically have decreased and it's looking increasingly likely we will dodge the bullet this time. Stills something to keep an eye on though.

Cermak · Post by **Cermak** » Thu Mar 30, 2023 12:36 pm

Glad to hear about the chances of severe weather decreasing. I've also noticed the grass is ever so slowly trying to green up, so glad we can finally say goodbye to all the brown terrain Soon.

Noticed another snowstorm expected north of us in Minnesota the next day or so. They have had a tough winter up there. We really can't complain much.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Fri Mar 31, 2023 1:50 pm

Unfortunately, today is likely going to be a dangerous day off to our east into Iowa with long-track, strong tornadoes possible (in addition to damaging wind/hail).

In and around Des Moines around 3 PM looks no bueno on the latest model data as well as many areas in central/eastern Iowa (on south).

In addtion, a tornado watch will probably be issued soon for parts of southern Iowa into Missiouri as an early round of potentially tornadic storms is expected to develop. These will also pose a risk for strong/long-track tornadoes (unfortnately).

Hopefully everyone stays safe…

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Fri Mar 31, 2023 1:59 pm

My in-laws live in Cedar Rapids, IA and everyone there is worried since they still have memories of the derecho a few years ago.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Fri Mar 31, 2023 2:25 pm

skinzfan23 wrote: Fri Mar 31, 2023 1:59 pm My in-laws live in Cedar Rapids, IA and everyone there is worried since they still have memories of the derecho a few years ago.

Yeah, I do too in the Iowa City area.

Unfortunately many of these same areas will probably have another round of dangerous weather on Tuesday as well (this time "maybe" as far west as Omaha but it's too early to know).

Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Fri Mar 31, 2023 2:31 pm

Should get up around the 70’s today…

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Fri Mar 31, 2023 2:47 pm

Coyote wrote: Fri Mar 31, 2023 2:31 pm Should get up around the 70’s today…

Actually we've probably reached our high temp for today as the cold front is just now moving into western Douglas County. Once it pushes through, temps will probably drop into the lower 50s or even 40s with wind (and cloud cover) for the remainder of this morning/this afternoon (and then colder tonight of course).

Sunday will be back into the 70s though

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Fri Mar 31, 2023 2:57 pm

It was great having our first 70 degree day of the year yesterday. The official high was 75. Wonder when the last time was we hit that number? November?

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Fri Mar 31, 2023 3:48 pm

Cold front is currently moving across western Omaha with temps down into the 40s already in Fremont (and many areas west of the front). If you're east of 680, it unfortunately won't be too much longer before a fairly drastic change happens with the weather/temps...

Visible satellite, etc below is from ~10:45 AM. The boundary is "almost" to 680 currently.

nativeomahan · Post by **nativeomahan** » Fri Mar 31, 2023 4:22 pm

At least we had one day in March where it reached 75 degrees. Still a very cool March compared with “normal”.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Fri Mar 31, 2023 4:39 pm

A “PDS (particularly dangerous situation) tornado watch” will likely be issued shortly for areas east in Iowa, etc.

Going to be pretty crazy soon…

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Fri Mar 31, 2023 9:29 pm

Large/violent tornado on the ground currently in southeast IA - although to be honest, it's a bit tough to tell from that video how much of that is actually on the ground. Either way, I'm sure there is a pretty strong tornado in there (or I'd be surprised if there isn't)...

Video here:

almighty_tuna · Post by **almighty_tuna** » Fri Mar 31, 2023 9:31 pm

Oof, that is substantial

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Sat Apr 01, 2023 11:25 am

Tuesday is continuing to look like potentially another big severe weather day for the area - this time Omaha may be more at risk (depending on timing).

The SPC has a day 4 risk area that includes portions of far eastern NE and much of IA. They warn of the potential for long-track supercells and strong tornadoes.

The 00z ECMWF shows a very strong storm system (976mb low) moving through with supercell development just east of us in west/southwest IA.

It’s still too far out to know specifics and things can obviously change but right now, Tuesday needs to be watched closely and could be a significant severe weather day in the local area.

Post by **Brad** » Sun Apr 02, 2023 3:39 pm

Also looking like a big snow day out west and north.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Mon Apr 03, 2023 12:27 pm

Brad wrote: Sun Apr 02, 2023 3:39 pm Also looking like a big snow day out west and north.

Indeed - looks like a mess for a lot of people.

The severe weather risk for tomorrow looks like it will remain mostly east of us with potentially another tornado outbreak for parts of eastern IA, etc (basically the same areas as this past Friday).

Hopefully there isn't a repeat of this absolute BEAST in eastern IA Friday (it ultimately was rated EF-4):

This is the latest from the SPC for tomorrow:

Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Mon Apr 03, 2023 12:50 pm

So stormchaser, have you actually chased some EF-4 storms in the past before?

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Mon Apr 03, 2023 1:17 pm

Coyote wrote: Mon Apr 03, 2023 12:50 pm So stormchaser, have you actually chased some EF-4 storms in the past before?

I have - April 9, 2011 near Pocahontus, IA. This storm just kept producing tornado after tornado including an EF-4 - most of which occurred after dark so the only time you could see it was when the lighting would flash in the right spot which made things even more eerie since you could hear it but not really see it all the time.

This was also the day Mapleton, IA was hit by an EF-3 (which I also saw though I didn't realize the town was hit at the time - if people here remember that).

The EF-4 was the first time I had to go into "search and rescue" mode as I came across a farmstead that was hit and I was first on scene. Digging through a signficantly damaged house in the pitch dark (aside from lightning flashes) with the smell of propane/pine/fresh cut grass in the air (tornado damage often has a very distinct smell), downed powerlines all around and not really knowing what I'd find is something I'll never forget. Part of the house was still standing, the other part wasn't so it was unclear if what was left was going to collapse in on me as I tried to dig. Thankfully the homeowner (an elderly man who was the only person home) was mostly uninjured aside from a few scrapes and obviously in shock - but he was stuck in his basement. I dug through the debris and managed to get him out safely but needless to say, that was the end of my chase as I waited with the elderly man in my car until his friends/family arrived an hour or 2 later (many roads in the area were impassible due to downed trees/powerlines). I actually stayed in touch with him and his family until he passed away (ironically on April 9, 2016 - exactly 5 years to the day after the tornado).

damonhynes · Post by **damonhynes** » Mon Apr 03, 2023 3:57 pm

I chased 9 April 2011, saw a very persistent tornado (which I assumed was a landspout!) but bailed as it left Onawa and headed toward the bluffs.

I did intercept and got good video of the 22 May 2004 Hallam F-4 in its early stages before it got dustwrapped.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Mon Apr 03, 2023 4:38 pm

damonhynes wrote: Mon Apr 03, 2023 3:57 pm I chased 9 April 2011, saw a very persistent tornado (which I assumed was a landspout!) but bailed as it left Onawa and headed toward the bluffs.

I did intercept and got good video of the 22 May 2004 Hallam F-4 in its early stages before it got dustwrapped.

Nice! That was before my time, I started chasing (at least more seriously) in 2006 when I still lived in MN...

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Apr 04, 2023 4:49 pm

Considering heading towards Atlantic, IA in a few hours for supercell development middle this afternoon including potential for tornadoes. The risk is higher to the east but this area doesn’t look bad either IMO..,

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Tue Apr 04, 2023 5:01 pm

That is crazy that only 5 days apart, a similar storm system is brewing. We are headed to eastern iowa this weekend, glad its not now.

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Tue Apr 04, 2023 5:27 pm

10 day forecast on Weather Underground is predicting 80+ from Monday through at least Thursday next week.

Post by **BRoss** » Tue Apr 04, 2023 7:59 pm

Louie wrote: Tue Apr 04, 2023 5:27 pm 10 day forecast on Weather Underground is predicting 80+ from Monday through at least Thursday next week.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Apr 04, 2023 8:18 pm

Near Stuart, IA currently (west of Des Moines along I-80). Supercell development is imminent in this area with a tornado watch out including the risk for a few strong tornadoes.

Things are about to get interesting anyway…

almighty_tuna · Post by **almighty_tuna** » Tue Apr 04, 2023 8:33 pm

Cool! Following along vicariously through your posts this afternoon then.

Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Tue Apr 04, 2023 10:22 pm

Did I see that Falls City, Nebraska got to 90 today?

Post by **Brad** » Wed Apr 05, 2023 12:54 am

Coyote wrote: Tue Apr 04, 2023 10:22 pm Did I see that Falls City, Nebraska got to 90 today?

Screenshot 2023-04-04 195409.jpg

nativeomahan · Post by **nativeomahan** » Wed Apr 05, 2023 1:11 am

Omaha may have its first 80+ degree day next week.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Apr 05, 2023 2:09 am

Storms ended up being too elevated (I suspect due to moisture issues) to produce anything tornadic in the western half of IA anyway. Obviously for the best but either way - fun to get out there and chase some decent storms…

Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Wed Apr 05, 2023 4:47 pm

Coyote wrote: Tue Apr 04, 2023 10:22 pm Did I see that Falls City, Nebraska got to 90 today?

I see the weather today that SE Nebraska is warmer than NW Nebraska by about 40 degrees…

Post by **Brad** » Wed Apr 05, 2023 5:09 pm

A lot of cool facts in this slide show by the Omaha National Weather Service:

https://www.weather.gov/media/oax/Clima ... erview.pdf

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Wed Apr 05, 2023 5:28 pm

So, we are still really far behind. I quit keeping track of our moisture level because it got too depressing LOL. I can't wait for a good rainy day. A washout. Yeah we've had a few non substantial rain and snow events, but I feel we're now conditioned to accept so little. It seems like we've been waiting for a couple years for an actual decent rain event.

Uffda · Post by **Uffda** » Thu Apr 06, 2023 12:07 am

Casper Wyoming was hit with a major snow storm Monday into Tuesday. Just on Monday they had about 26” of snow and ended up with almost 36”. Casper Mt just south of town received 48”.

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Thu Apr 06, 2023 1:23 am

Uffda wrote: Thu Apr 06, 2023 12:07 am Casper Wyoming was hit with a major snow storm Monday into Tuesday. Just on Monday they had about 26” of snow and ended up with almost 36”. Casper Mt just south of town received 48”.

Well, the platte River will like that.

Post by **Brad** » Mon Apr 10, 2023 1:50 am

Found this interesting. Explains how the drought in the Midwest should start to improve.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Mon Apr 10, 2023 4:21 pm

From the brief look at the radar, it looked like only a thin band of rain last night, so maybe not all of the city got it, but where I'm at, there was a somewhat decent rain last night. First around 10 and again around 2. Nothing great at all, but considering the forecast of .1", at least this one lived up. Eppley reported .11", I feel like I may have gotten somewhat more. Also heard first thunder of the year. The ground is still a little moist. We need everything we can get.

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Mon Apr 10, 2023 4:35 pm

Busguy2010 wrote: Mon Apr 10, 2023 4:21 pm From the brief look at the radar, it looked like only a thin band of rain last night, so maybe not all of the city got it, but where I'm at, there was a somewhat decent rain last night. First around 10 and again around 2. Nothing great at all, but considering the forecast of .1", at least this one lived up. Eppley reported .11", I feel like I may have gotten somewhat more. Also heard first thunder of the year. The ground is still a little moist. We need everything we can get.

I'd agree with this take for my area as well. Ground is still quite wet in shaded areas.

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Mon Apr 10, 2023 5:02 pm

We got about .25in in Bellevue