2023 Weather Thread

Post by **BRoss** » Mon Apr 10, 2023 6:11 pm

I only got .08 out west central.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Apr 11, 2023 4:51 pm

Odds are increasing for severe weather in/near the Omaha area (and much of southeast NE) for this coming Friday IMO anyway.

Currently, the SPC has a day 4 outlook for areas to our south (for just south of the NE border in eastern KS on south). However, based on model trends, I'd expect them to add our area to the risk area in future updates with a warm front depicted to be draped across the area as well as a strong low to our southwest. This warm front should be the focus of potential severe storms. With good model agreement between the GFS, NAM and ECMWF, I'd be surprised if our area isn't added anyway.

If things play out as shown, a supercell/tornado risk would probably exist but it's obviously too far out to really know. In addition, some heavy rain looks possible in parts of the area.

almighty_tuna · Post by **almighty_tuna** » Tue Apr 11, 2023 5:01 pm

We sure need the rain. Hoping I can cook around it though - hoping to get a few racks of ribs in the smoker Saturday morning.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Thu Apr 13, 2023 12:43 pm

Still looking like a severe weather threat in parts of the area tomorrow/tomorrow night. Not really much of a tornado threat at this point and the main threats should be at least some scattered damaging wind/hail (highest risk is west of Omaha). It probably won't be a big severe weather event. Some areas will probably get some pretty decent rain totals but it's hard to say exactly where - just depends on who gets a storm and who doesn't really.

Post by **Brad** » Thu Apr 13, 2023 1:11 pm

stormchaser wrote: Thu Apr 13, 2023 12:43 pm Some areas will probably get some pretty decent rain totals

Good, we need it. As long as its not Fort Lauderdale rain totals! LOL, 25.91 inches in 24 hours is insane!

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Thu Apr 13, 2023 2:22 pm

Brad wrote: Thu Apr 13, 2023 1:11 pm
stormchaser wrote: Thu Apr 13, 2023 12:43 pm Some areas will probably get some pretty decent rain totals
Good, we need it. As long as its not Fort Lauderdale rain totals! LOL, 25.91 inches in 24 hours is insane!

Yeah, that's crazy!

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Thu Apr 13, 2023 4:32 pm

I'm glad to see the NWS sees this as a pretty strong chance of some decent rain and thunder. I'm even more excited that, for once, it appears it'll happen at a decent enough hour to enjoy! Not 3,4,5 in the morning like has happened so many times the last few years.

Post by **BRoss** » Thu Apr 13, 2023 6:04 pm

Busguy2010 wrote: Thu Apr 13, 2023 4:32 pm I'm glad to see the NWS sees this as a pretty strong chance of some decent rain and thunder. I'm even more excited that, for once, it appears it'll happen at a decent enough hour to enjoy! Not 3,4,5 in the morning like has happened so many times the last few years.

I hate when storms happen in the middle of the night to where I miss it.

Cermak · Post by **Cermak** » Thu Apr 13, 2023 7:09 pm

Hope we get some decent rain from this, at least a half inch.

Post by **Brad** » Fri Apr 14, 2023 5:21 pm

I see the SPC Has moved the Slight Risk to our area. Looks like its mostly for Wind and Hail, not Tornadoes.

SPC.JPG

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Fri Apr 14, 2023 5:26 pm

This'll be a rollercoaster. It'll be over a 20 degree drop from this afternoon to later tonight. Heavy rain and thunderstorms, followed by a gloomy Saturday, and even a small snow chance on Sunday morning. Saturday will be a good day to stay in and read a book. My type of day.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Fri Apr 14, 2023 5:45 pm

Brad wrote: Fri Apr 14, 2023 5:21 pm I see the SPC Has moved the Slight Risk to our area. Looks like its mostly for Wind and Hail, not Tornadoes.

SPC.JPG

Yep, definitely no real tornado threat - crashing cold front this time so everything will be very outflow dominant. Probably some decent sized hail though.

Storm initiation in our area looks to be around 6 or 7 this evening based on the latest HRRR anyway (though a few showers are trying to get going around Omaha currently I'm guessing they will struggle but I guess we will see).

**Edit**
Nevermind, looks like initiation is fully happening now several hours earlier than most models depicted.

damonhynes · Post by **damonhynes** » Fri Apr 14, 2023 6:29 pm

stormchaser wrote: Fri Apr 14, 2023 5:45 pm
Brad wrote: Fri Apr 14, 2023 5:21 pm I see the SPC Has moved the Slight Risk to our area. Looks like its mostly for Wind and Hail, not Tornadoes.

SPC.JPG
Yep, definitely no real tornado threat - crashing cold front this time so everything will be very outflow dominant. Probably some decent sized hail though.

Storm initiation in our area looks to be around 6 or 7 this evening based on the latest HRRR anyway (though a few showers are trying to get going around Omaha currently I'm guessing they will struggle but I guess we will see).

**Edit**
Nevermind, looks like initiation is fully happening now several hours earlier than most models depicted.

About 1 PM, I got enough to wet the ground in Southport... just after a painting contractor striped our parking lot...

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Fri Apr 14, 2023 6:45 pm

damonhynes wrote: Fri Apr 14, 2023 6:29 pm About 1 PM, I got enough to wet the ground in Southport... just after a painting contractor striped our parking lot...

That sucks, I'd expect another round too in a few hours as the cold front pushes into the metro from the northwest. This later round "should" be the main severe weather threat...

almighty_tuna · Post by **almighty_tuna** » Fri Apr 14, 2023 7:44 pm

Looks like round two is juuuust starting to fire up west of Sioux City along a forming line to the southwest.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Fri Apr 14, 2023 8:08 pm

almighty_tuna wrote: Fri Apr 14, 2023 7:44 pm Looks like round two is juuuust starting to fire up west of Sioux City along a forming line to the southwest.

Actually there is a stalled out boundary even closer that's in the western part of Douglas county currently...slowly moving this way (though there will probably be multiple rounds so you're correct also).

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=l ... =undefined

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Fri Apr 14, 2023 11:10 pm

Our first severe thunderstorm warning of the year.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Sat Apr 15, 2023 1:08 am

Flooding will become an increasing threat in parts of the metro over the next several hours (especially eastern half)

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Sat Apr 15, 2023 4:20 am

Already had 1.75in of 10pm at my house

Post by **BRoss** » Sat Apr 15, 2023 3:13 pm

skinzfan23 wrote: Sat Apr 15, 2023 4:20 am Already had 1.75in of 10pm at my house

Dang, I only got 0.26 out of the whole thing.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Sat Apr 15, 2023 6:50 pm

Most places in eastern Omaha ended up in the 2-4 inches of rain range. Significantly less in west/northwest Omaha.

Rain mixed with snow/Graupel currently moving into the metro…

Cermak · Post by **Cermak** » Sat Apr 15, 2023 7:56 pm

A steady cold rain out right now. Should be helping the drought situation I would think.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Sun Apr 16, 2023 3:29 pm

Probably a scattered elevated supercell threat Tuesday night/overnight in parts of the area (including Omaha). The primary threat will be large hail with at least some damaging wind threat as well. Most places probably won’t see much of anything since the storms will likely be pretty isolated but the places that do could see some pretty large hail…

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Sun Apr 16, 2023 5:19 pm

1.22" reported on the event at Eppley. Finally, a proper rain event. Still, we could use one like it every week.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Mon Apr 17, 2023 6:47 pm

A larger/more widespread severe weather event is expected on Wednesday with the potential for supercells and very large hail.

The SPC has a "day 3 outlook" that includes Omaha, etc.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Mon Apr 17, 2023 9:18 pm

stormchaser wrote: Mon Apr 17, 2023 6:47 pm A larger/more widespread severe weather event is expected on Wednesday with the potential for supercells and very large hail.

The SPC has a "day 3 outlook" that includes Omaha, etc.

Yikes!..

Thanks for the heads up...

Ciao..LiO…Peace

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Apr 18, 2023 12:35 pm

You're welcome!

Pretty good chance strong to severe storms (mostly a hail threat) will occur in Omaha tonight as well. Forecast models have been very consistent with bring storms through the metro sometime between 8 PM and Midnight. Of course things can change/shift but if they don't hit Omaha specifically, they will probably be very close anyway.

damonhynes · Post by **damonhynes** » Tue Apr 18, 2023 5:52 pm

The SPC Day 2 has Omaha in a 5% TOR risk. Now, it's spring!

Post by **Brad** » Wed Apr 19, 2023 3:01 am

Looks like tonight (Tuesday) we are unlikely to see a watch.

Post by **Brad** » Wed Apr 19, 2023 6:03 am

Not a bad little storms. Nothing severe but did get some small hail and a ton of lightning. Got some great CG lightning strikes. Photo s downloading now.

Post by **Brad** » Wed Apr 19, 2023 6:36 am

From my driveway

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Wed Apr 19, 2023 12:29 pm

Great photos

almighty_tuna · Post by **almighty_tuna** » Wed Apr 19, 2023 1:05 pm

Shocking photos, Brad! Nice grabs

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Apr 19, 2023 1:07 pm

Nice photos Brad!

Today looks like a pretty active severe weather day with supercells with large hail and potential tornadoes in the area.

Main tornado threat based on the SPC is from Omaha on south and east but the HRRR has been showing a big storm firing near or just north of Omaha too.

Here is the latest SPC outlook for the area where we are now in an "enhanced risk":

almighty_tuna · Post by **almighty_tuna** » Wed Apr 19, 2023 1:39 pm

According to Twitter, Reed Timmer is on his way to **DOMINATE** here in Omaha.

Cermak · Post by **Cermak** » Wed Apr 19, 2023 2:18 pm

stormchaser wrote: Wed Apr 19, 2023 1:07 pm Nice photos Brad!

Today looks like a pretty active severe weather day with supercells with large hail and potential tornadoes in the area.

Main tornado threat based on the SPC is from Omaha on south and east but the HRRR has been showing a big storm firing near or just north of Omaha too.

Here is the latest SPC outlook for the area where we are now in an "enhanced risk":

Another crummy Saturday, my phone says just a high of 48.

damonhynes · Post by **damonhynes** » Wed Apr 19, 2023 2:19 pm

almighty_tuna wrote: Wed Apr 19, 2023 1:39 pm According to Twitter, Reed Timmer is on his way to **DOMINATE** here in Omaha.

I'm hanging tough until I know Jimbo Cantore's whereabouts. :-)

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Wed Apr 19, 2023 2:22 pm

Cermak wrote: Wed Apr 19, 2023 2:18 pm
stormchaser wrote: Wed Apr 19, 2023 1:07 pm Nice photos Brad!

Today looks like a pretty active severe weather day with supercells with large hail and potential tornadoes in the area.

Main tornado threat based on the SPC is from Omaha on south and east but the HRRR has been showing a big storm firing near or just north of Omaha too.

Here is the latest SPC outlook for the area where we are now in an "enhanced risk":

Another crummy Saturday, my phone says just a high of 48.

Saturday morning could shake out to be the last freeze if we're lucky. Which I doubt :/

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Apr 19, 2023 3:58 pm

I'm becoming increasingly concerned about a tornado threat very close or over Omaha itself later today. The warm front right now has stalled out just north of Omaha (along the northern border of Douglas County). Anything that can embed on or move near/south this warm front, will probably have an increased risk or tornadoes.

If you live in or anywhere near Omaha, please pay close attention later today.

Just to stress, Omaha itself may or may not get hit.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Wed Apr 19, 2023 3:59 pm

Louie wrote: Wed Apr 19, 2023 2:22 pm Saturday morning could shake out to be the last freeze if we're lucky. Which I doubt :/

I'm actually totally surprised by this. I thought we were going to turn out with a really early last freeze of April 6th. After that warmup got us to the normal last freeze date of April 16th, I thought for sure it was in the books. But now the NWS is forecasting a low of 29 on Sunday morning, so if that turns out, it would be a considerably later than normal April 23rd. I've kept track every year for the last eleven years for gardening, and I believe April 23rd would be the latest yet (not counting the anomaly in 2013 of May 2nd IIRC)

For my purposes in gardening, I know scientifically 32 is freezing, but only consider it "effectively freezing" if it drops into the 20's. I only developed this approach because I've had some tomatoes survive temps as low as 25, though most will kick the bucket between 26 and 29. *usually* if we make it to the week of the 16th and there's no freeze forecast for the end of that week, then we're golden to plant. Even this upcoming freeze will be brief enough I think my things will survive.