2023 Weather Thread

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Wed Apr 19, 2023 4:09 pm

Yeah I always like to know that info for planting as well. I just put some grass seed down in bare spots, but usually as long as it hasn't germinated it will be fine. One thing other than covering plants that can help is to water them well the night before so they don't freeze.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Apr 19, 2023 4:51 pm

This cloud deck building over Omaha may end up lowering the risk here - we will see if it hangs on long enough.

Either way, Nebraska City (roughly) is probably where I'm going to target.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Wed Apr 19, 2023 5:21 pm

According to Anthony's noon forecast, I shouldn't keep my hopes up for much of anything interesting in Omaha. Nebraska city sounds like a good setup point. Far enough south and can cross the river. Good luck.

Post by **Brad** » Wed Apr 19, 2023 6:56 pm

Thanks for the photo comments everyone!

almighty_tuna wrote: Wed Apr 19, 2023 1:39 pm According to Twitter, Reed Timmer is on his way to **DOMINATE** here in Omaha.

He must have changed his mind because he just tweeted from Oklahoma City. Not sure he's going to make the 7 hour drive before the storms start... LOL

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Apr 19, 2023 6:58 pm

Busguy2010 wrote: Wed Apr 19, 2023 5:21 pm According to Anthony's noon forecast, I shouldn't keep my hopes up for much of anything interesting in Omaha. Nebraska city sounds like a good setup point. Far enough south and can cross the river. Good luck.

Thanks, I think I’m going to end up staying local. Down south near Nebraska City and adjacent parts of southwest IA, t storms are more “likely”. However, too much forcing, etc will likely also mean these storms will probably turn into more of an HP mess and way tougher to chase (though initially they maybe decent and potentially tornadic)

Up near Omaha and just east and to the north, storms should remain more discrete and supercellular. Looking at the latest HRRR, there is a dry slot or wedge of dry air just southwest of Omaha (often northeast of that wedge is a good place to target) and surface winds are backed better here which also add to rotation and tornado potential.

Long story short, I still feel like Omaha and areas just east and north of town are at just as much tornado risk as areas south (probably higher even IMO).

People locally need to pay close attention. Again, I’m not predicting Omaha will get hit but based on what I’m seeing, it “may” be very close.

Dewpoints from the latest HRRR showing the wedge of dry air southwest of Omaha and backed easterly/southeasterly winds in the area:

Post by **Brad** » Wed Apr 19, 2023 7:51 pm

MD 560 nearly centered on Omaha.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Apr 19, 2023 7:53 pm

MD has been issued - watch issuance will needed in the next couple hours.

The text of the MD basically says the same I did - tornado threat probably highest near Omaha on north near the warm front.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0560.html

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Apr 19, 2023 7:53 pm

Brad wrote: Wed Apr 19, 2023 7:51 pm MD 560 nearly centered on Omaha.

Lol you beat me to it

Post by **Brad** » Wed Apr 19, 2023 8:47 pm

Tornado Watch Issued

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Apr 19, 2023 8:52 pm

Cumulus organizing just southwest of Omaha. A supercell may be imminent over Omaha (or just west/north) within the next hour or so…

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Apr 19, 2023 8:55 pm

I’m currently in Missouri Valley, IA waiting for initiation…

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Apr 19, 2023 9:35 pm

Towering cumulus observed on visible satellite near or just southwest of Valley, NE. Heads up if you live on the northwest side of Omaha - it looks like it’s about to get interesting…

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Apr 19, 2023 9:41 pm

Additional storm development starting to occur south of Omaha near Nebraska City. These will likely pass east of town as they move northeast…

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Apr 19, 2023 10:31 pm

My location. Tornado may be imminent

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Wed Apr 19, 2023 10:42 pm

stormchaser wrote: Wed Apr 19, 2023 10:31 pm My location. Tornado may be imminent

Would you estimate as of about 5:45pm, the Omaha area is out of the woods for any severe weather?.. I would like to see rain though…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Apr 19, 2023 11:10 pm

Yeah, probably all clear in Omaha at this point

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Wed Apr 19, 2023 11:36 pm

stormchaser wrote: Wed Apr 19, 2023 11:10 pm Yeah, probably all clear in Omaha at this point

Cool..

Thanks again

…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Thu Apr 20, 2023 12:42 am

Omaha Cowboy wrote: Wed Apr 19, 2023 11:36 pm
stormchaser wrote: Wed Apr 19, 2023 11:10 pm Yeah, probably all clear in Omaha at this point
Cool..

Thanks again …

Ciao..LiO…Peace

You’re welcome!

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Thu Apr 20, 2023 1:34 am

Then again, on the east side still storms anyway…

Post by **Brad** » Thu Apr 20, 2023 1:48 am

stormchaser wrote: Wed Apr 19, 2023 10:31 pm My location. Tornado may be imminent

You chase that all way tonDennison and catch the tornado?

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Thu Apr 20, 2023 2:19 am

Man, what a difference 5 or 10 miles made. It would have made for quite a night in Omaha. Now I'm wondering if it'll even rain tonight.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Thu Apr 20, 2023 2:51 am

Brad wrote: Thu Apr 20, 2023 1:48 am
stormchaser wrote: Wed Apr 19, 2023 10:31 pm My location. Tornado may be imminent

You chase that all way tonDennison and catch the tornado?

I wish, I bailed on the storm as I got stuck trying to find a decent route to cross the Missouri River and by the time I did, I was way out of position so I headed toward the storms southeast of Omaha but found mostly a HP mess.

Picked the right storm but had some bad luck. Oh well, such is chasing

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Thu Apr 20, 2023 11:37 am

Almost an inch and a half overnight for most of the metro. Not a bad go of it.

Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Thu Apr 20, 2023 12:16 pm

6 First Alert Storm Week: How does hail form?

Hail is always a concern during severe weather season, but how does it form? Hail forms thanks to strong thunderstorm updrafts that carry frozen water droplets upwards through the storm. Additional layers of ice freeze onto the water droplet as it’s carried up and down through the storm. Stronger thunderstorms have stronger updrafts and are able to carry larger hailstones upward through the storm. Eventually, the piece of hail will become too heavy to be supported by the updraft and fall to the ground. Small hail is most common -- usually pea to penny-size. Anything over 1 inch, or quarter size, is considered severe. Although rare, hail can grow over 4 inches!

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Thu Apr 20, 2023 12:35 pm

Unfortunately, based on the long range ECMWF, the next 7-10 days (possibly the next 2 weeks) are going to be below average temperature wise with highs frequently in the mid 50s and occasionally only in the 40s.

Not very "Spring-like" for a stretch starting today anyway...

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Thu Apr 20, 2023 3:53 pm

Spring is always a rollercoaster. For the most part the last couple weeks or so have been above normal. Some of those days were well above normal. I'm definitely not ready for upper 80's type weather this early. So for me I definitely will be enjoying the next week or so. If I have a choice between 10-15 degrees above or below normal, I'm taking the below. I'll be enjoying this. I actually think today is pretty perfect.

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Thu Apr 20, 2023 4:28 pm

WOWT always maps out the monthly temps, so you can see this month has been much above normal, but March was ridiculously below normal for almost every single day. If the next 10 days end up like the projected highs, this month will be about average.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Thu Apr 20, 2023 5:21 pm

Wow, I wouldn't have guessed, but the forecast low of 26 for Sunday morning would be a record low. It is currently 28. I would have assumed it was quite a bit lower than that.

Post by **Brad** » Thu Apr 20, 2023 7:09 pm

Apparently Storm Damage in Sarpy County:

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Thu Apr 20, 2023 7:38 pm

Huh, my folks live in Cedar Creek and sent me a picture of a couple mature trees knocked down at the stump. Guess that's what happened.

Padre · Post by **Padre** » Sat Apr 22, 2023 2:55 pm

A very light snow this morning!

Cermak · Post by **Cermak** » Sat Apr 22, 2023 8:39 pm

Padre wrote: Sat Apr 22, 2023 2:55 pm A very light snow this morning!

Another crummy Saturday, but better than last Saturday.

nativeomahan · Post by **nativeomahan** » Mon Apr 24, 2023 12:33 am

I believe that Omaha officially registered an all time record low for the date on Sunday. Not good. I wonder what it will do to the fruit crop?

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Mon Apr 24, 2023 2:02 am

Since it’s been so cool lately, a lot of plants haven’t fully awakened from winter. Most that have are able to stand a few hours of freezing like we had last night, especially with the ground temps being warm.

This upcoming week looks much better and very seasonable.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Mon Apr 24, 2023 12:29 pm

skinzfan23 wrote: Mon Apr 24, 2023 2:02 am Since it’s been so cool lately, a lot of plants haven’t fully awakened from winter. Most that have are able to stand a few hours of freezing like we had last night, especially with the ground temps being warm.

This upcoming week looks much better and very seasonable.

Yep, today through Thursday should be pretty nice. Friday and this weekend might not be, but that's Spring for you

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Thu Apr 27, 2023 8:47 pm

"Maybe" some decent rain for the Omaha metro tomorrow if the 18z HRRR verifies anyway with some scattered showers/thundershowers.

Since these will be scattered, most places will receive very minor rain totals. However, these will probably be pretty slow moving so if you happen to get lucky enough to have one of the thundershowers move over your local area, you could see some decent rain amounts (potentially in excess of an inch of rain in very scattered/localized areas). Of course, chances are the metro will get barely enough to wet the ground (we have the Omadome after all) but something to keep an eye on anyway...

Cermak · Post by **Cermak** » Fri Apr 28, 2023 4:21 am

stormchaser wrote: Thu Apr 27, 2023 8:47 pm "Maybe" some decent rain for the Omaha metro tomorrow if the 18z HRRR verifies anyway with some scattered showers/thundershowers.

Since these will be scattered, most places will receive very minor rain totals. However, these will probably be pretty slow moving so if you happen to get lucky enough to have one of the thundershowers move over your local area, you could see some decent rain amounts (potentially in excess of an inch of rain in very scattered/localized areas). Of course, chances are the metro will get barely enough to wet the ground (we have the Omadome after all) but something to keep an eye on anyway...

This has been probably our nicest week so far of spring. Today was very pleasant, it wasn't even windy this evening. We had some nice weather a few weeks ago but I enjoyed this more with the slightly cooler temperatures and less wind. I could go for about a month straight of this weeks weather, upper 60's low 70's during the day 40's at night.

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Fri Apr 28, 2023 4:55 pm

Not that we were expected to get much but it looks like the Omadome strikes again. We barely got enough to wet the ground in Bellevue. Looks like most of the moisture is up by Denison and Carroll, IA.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Mon May 01, 2023 12:36 pm

It's several days away yet but the threat for severe weather is starting to increase for this upcoming weekend (based on the 00z ECMWF anyway). It's of course too far out yet to have confidence and to really know specifics at this point but it's something to keep an eye on and to be aware of as we get closer...

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Tue May 02, 2023 1:05 am

stormchaser wrote: Mon May 01, 2023 12:36 pm It's several days away yet but the threat for severe weather is starting to increase for this upcoming weekend (based on the 00z ECMWF anyway). It's of course too far out yet to have confidence and to really know specifics at this point but it's something to keep an eye on and to be aware of as we get closer...

Thanks for the early heads up..

Keep us posted!…

Ciao..LiO…Peace