2022 Omaha Metro/CSA population Estimates-

[Garrett]

Those crazy Census numbers I doubt you can really trust those anymore. They appear flawed and politically tampered with. The whole census process needs to be revamped. Anyone that drives around Omaha can tell this place is growing and isn't stagnant or in decline.

The yearly estimates are flawed. Even pre covid, the estimates low balled the Omaha Metro and CSA populations. It’s the official Decade end Census which is closer to reality..and has told a different story than the lowballed annual estimates leading up to it.. This time around, the estimate flaws are even more pronounced..

And yes. Anyone who simply drives around the metro knows this is a vibrant, growing area. Not even close to stagnant. US Census Estimates are becoming more amusing to me year after year these days..

In any case, we’ll await the 2030 official census..nd I’ll keep using the eyeball test as a gauge …

Ciao..LiO…Peace

The low balling has never been too extreme to the scale you’re trying to claim. The 2019 estimates had the metro at 950,000. To be 2020 census showed 967,000, from 865,000 in 2010. That shows me that the census may have a slight underestimation of Omaha’s growth pattern of around 500 people per year, not tens of thousands of people.

[Erik]

Are there "legit" explanations for the difference between on-the-ground observations of growth and the Census Bureau's models?

One of the big things since the pandemic is an abnormally large % of the population moving into larger housing, further away from job centers. This type of change has occurred throughout the entire housing market; even if you look at apartments, many folks went from having roommates to getting their own place. So the math could work out that you could have a large amount of housing construction with no net change in population.

I'm curious what the most reliable indicators of population are. For instance, can we look at student populations across Omaha-area schools as any indicator?

It's more than eyeball tests. I posted numbers that at least provide intriguing evidence to support this.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Those crazy Census numbers I doubt you can really trust those anymore. They appear flawed and politically tampered with. The whole census process needs to be revamped. Anyone that drives around Omaha can tell this place is growing and isn't stagnant or in decline.

The yearly estimates are flawed. Even pre covid, the estimates low balled the Omaha Metro and CSA populations. It’s the official Decade end Census which is closer to reality..and has told a different story than the lowballed annual estimates leading up to it.. This time around, the estimate flaws are even more pronounced..

And yes. Anyone who simply drives around the metro knows this is a vibrant, growing area. Not even close to stagnant. US Census Estimates are becoming more amusing to me year after year these days..

In any case, we’ll await the 2030 official census..nd I’ll keep using the eyeball test as a gauge …

Ciao..LiO…Peace

The low balling has never been too extreme to the scale you’re trying to claim. The 2019 estimates had the metro at 950,000. To be 2020 census showed 967,000, from 865,000 in 2010.

All I’ve ever claimed is the estimates are flawed and they lowball Omaha’s MSA and CSA numbers. There is no disputing this. In fact, that Omaha is so close to the 1 million mark in MSA, makes even these “slight” lowballs a major deal.. Especially considering potential new to market businesses (amenities)and restaurants etc looking to expand into the Omaha metro- even a slight lowball is actually a bigger deal than you might think- as many of these businesses use the 1 million MSA mark as a tipping point to expand- and will look at these annual estimates for the “latest data”. For a metro on the cusp like Omaha, it really is a big deal…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[riceweb]

It's more than eyeball tests. I posted numbers that at least provide intriguing evidence to support this.

What I was getting is that I don't trust housing numbers alone when almost universally people have bought more and bigger real estate since the pandemic. I'm not saying we're stagnating, just that a bigger portion of our paychecks have been going toward housing.

And TBH, I think we're in a bit of a real estate bubble in the Omaha metro. A year ago I was excited to see growth down 204th: clear signs of prosperity in the area with many new families in the area. But now I see mile after mile after mile cleared for new housing, almost continuously between Elkhorn and Gretna, and I can't imagine there's enough demand to fill that all in. And especially *after* the great COVID pull-forward of housing demand and *after* interest rates rose, I think we're going to see many of these new neighborhoods remain empty, with homes standing partially-completed for months or even years with no buyers. You just can't bring that much inventory to the market all at once.

So anyway, that's why I was wondering if school attendance is a better proxy for our growth. If you add up all the area school districts, is the student population increasing? Or are there any other better proxies for growth?

[TitosBuritoBarn]

They've never been too far off on Omaha's population in my experience, but they're far from perfect as even the decennial official counts can be quite wrong: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/ ... state.html

I've always found it odd that county to county migration numbers show high positive migration to most counties in Texas, Florida, and a few sunbelt counties and largely negative migration almost everywhere else.

[nativeomahan]

What no one on here seems to focus on is the quality of life. Quality matters much more than quantity. At times they can be polar opposites.

[Omaha Cowboy]

What no one on here seems to focus on is the quality of life. Quality matters much more than quantity. At times they can be polar opposites.

I agree with you..

However this is the “Statistics Forum” so the focus is naturally going to be on numbers..or as you say- quantity …

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Athomsfere]

What no one on here seems to focus on is the quality of life. Quality matters much more than quantity. At times they can be polar opposites.

I don't get it, in the context of the current conversation...

What quality of life comes from growing X or Y over a decade? Is this alluding to not hyper-growth that we can't keep up with? But strong, yet healthy growth?

We are in a kind of goldi-locks growth rate IMO. Although, I would mind a single decade or so hyper growth, then back to where we are now.

[skinzfan23]

Apparently the census think everyone moved out of cities or something as a result of Covid.

Here are some estimates for 2022 compared to 2021:

................... 2022 2021
Bellevue: 63,015 63,885
LaVista: 16,379 16,674
Papillion: 23,794 24,195
Omaha: 485,153 488,508
Lincoln: 292,627 291,476

I find it hard to believe that out of 5 of the larger metros in the state, only Lincoln increased in population.....like we have mentioned before, seriously doubting any of this info is accurate and wondering how they come up with these numbers.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Apparently the census think everyone moved out of cities or something as a result of Covid.

Here are some estimates for 2022 compared to 2021:

................... 2022 2021
Bellevue: 63,015 63,885
LaVista: 16,379 16,674
Papillion: 23,794 24,195
Omaha: 485,153 488,508
Lincoln: 292,627 291,476

I find it hard to believe that out of 5 of the larger metros in the state, only Lincoln increased in population.....like we have mentioned before, seriously doubting any of this info is accurate and wondering how they come up with these numbers.

Yeah- those estimates are completely flawed. Unfortunately, we have to live with them for now…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Duggers_Dad]

I think most of the large cities, even cities like Miami and Atlanta, last population 2020-21. At the same time most (not all) regained population thereafter.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Yeah, it’s all a jumbled mess right now. These estimates are not an accurate gauge…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Brad]

Population growth strongest in some Nebraska suburban and rural counties

https://nebraskaexaminer.com/briefs/pop ... -counties/

OMAHA — While Nebraska overall saw a slight population bump, 51 of the state’s counties lost residents between mid-2021 and mid-2022, according to a new census analysis by the University of Nebraska at Omaha’s Center for Public Affairs Research.

Among the fastest-growing were suburban areas around the state’s core metropolitan counties.

Sarpy and Saunders Counties both grew by about 1.4% — outperforming the 0.1% that same year of mega neighbor Douglas.

The census report also showed some of the strongest annual population growth in a handful of smaller, more rural Nebraska counties, including Frontier, Deuel, Greeley and Dawes.

Translation: “A little bit more stability in rural counties,” said Schafer.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Using these census estimates as reality is sketchy at best..

That said, it’s encouraging to hear of estimated growth in suburban and some rural areas in Nebraska..

It’ll be interesting to see what the 2023 estimates tell us next year…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[ita]

.1% increase for Douglas is concerning. That means we need some boom times before the decade is through to keep up with the robust growth of last decade, 13.5%.

[Omaha Cowboy]

.1% increase for Douglas is concerning. That means we need some boom times before the decade is through to keep up with the robust growth of last decade, 13.5%.

It’s only concerning if you buy the estimate..which I don’t. I believe it’s flawed (surprise, lol) and it’s a flawed one year estimate..Obviously not one sustained over a significant period of time. The estimate also belies the “eye test” (again surprise, lol)..

I’m honestly not worried about it. But it’ll be interesting to see what the US Census comes up with for Douglas County with it’s 2023 estimate in 2024…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Garrett]

If you have data to suggest that Nebraska is mystically an exception to growth trends seen across all 50 states and most major cities I’d love to see it. The eye test is not data. Vibes are not data. Data is data. The census estimates have never been historically off to the point you’re trying to claim, especially in the realm of missing tens of thousands of people on a regional scale.

[Omaha Cowboy]

And the methodology used to present “data” can be flawed..

I don’t and won’t minimize an “eye test” or a “vibe”, as they can provide important human insight on what is actually reality..

In any case, you and I will never see “eye to eye” (pardon the pun) on this..

If you choose to believe these US Census estimates- specifically the ones presented the past 2 years (2021 and 2022)- as an accurate depiction of population growth or non growth for the entirety of the US, including Omaha and the metropolitan area- so be it- you do you..

I believe, specific to Omaha and the metropolitan area, these last 2 estimates are flawed and inaccurate. I’ll believe what I want, you believe what you want.. In the end, the 2030 Official Census will be the closest thing any of us or any estimate will get to accurate..

That said, it’ll be interesting to see if the 2023 estimates make any Omaha area related course corrections …

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Renovator2559]

The Des Moines register claims that the the Des Moines area is growing at a much faster rate than Omaha, is that true or is there more to the claims that Des Moines is the fastest growing metro in the midwest?

Last time I remember, was that Omaha was the highest growing city among Kansas City and Des Moines, is that still the case with data that the Des Moines register did not factor into account?

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story ... 257881007/

[Omaha Cowboy]

The Des Moines register claims that the the Des Moines area is growing at a much faster rate than Omaha, is that true or is there more to the claims that Des Moines is the fastest growing metro in the midwest?

Last time I remember, was that Omaha was the highest growing city among Kansas City and Des Moines, is that still the case with data that the Des Moines register did not factor into account?

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story ... 257881007/

They’re growing, but so is Omaha. They’re going off these latest Census estimates which most folks agree are pretty unreliable. The truth will be told in 2030- when the official Census will show Omaha as having, once again, robust growth over the decade..and at likely 12% or more. I am very confident of that…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[iamjacobm]

DSM has been growing not only at a faster rate but has had higher raw number population growth than Omaha for a while now.

[Renovator2559]

They’re growing, but so is Omaha. They’re going off these latest Census estimates which most folks agree are pretty unreliable. The truth will be told in 2030- when the official Census will show Omaha as having, once again, robust growth over the decade..and at likely 12% or more. I am very confident of that…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

I agree, the amount of new dense neighborhoods, apartment developments. The boldness of the 30 year Omaha build plan. Plus the park system we currently have, has turned into a great magnet.

Is much more than what I have seen in Des Moines, I have seen construction of new apartments in DSM but it feels like much fewer.
Plus the new future Market Distric of 6 new blocks or so in Des Moines, won't begin for some time

[TreeKiid]

DSM has been growing not only at a faster rate but has had higher raw number population growth than Omaha for a while now.

Actually this is only reflected in the estimates. In the years running up to the 2020 census, the estimates had us over 10,000 residents behind DSM in raw numbers over the course of the decade. However when the official census came out Omaha had grown by 102,254 residents to DSM’s 102,991. While still slightly larger than Omaha’s gains, it is within the margin of error and certainly shows that estimates tend to skew not in Omaha’s favor for some reason.
(I believe it was a combination of DSM’s estimates being a bit high over the decade and ours being a little lower than reality. There was some confusion about a higher growth in rate and raw numbers because Jasper Co. was added in 2018 to DSM metro but you add its 2010 numbers when counting official raw number and rate growth.)
That being said Des Moines is growing at a faster rate hands down and has been for some time. However I will say their success seems to be at the detriment of every small to mid size city in Iowa.
All stats are available on the Census.gov site

[Renovator2559]

However I will say their success seems to be at the detriment of every small to mid size city in Iowa.

Makes total sense, as Iowa as a state has a much larger density of small towns than Nebraska, for Des Moines to poach residents from. Omaha is doing the same in poaching residents from our small towns in the state.

[nativeomahan]

I don’t know if I would call what is occurring in cities like Des Moines and Omaha (and Denver, the Twin Cities, Sioux Falls, etc.) “poaching”. People naturally gravitate to where there are better employment opportunities, better housing, more shopping and entertainment, better health care, more educational opportunities and a generally better quality of life. It’s been going on in the U.S. since there was a U.S. The trend accelerated with the Great Depression.

[TreeKiid]

I guess I just meant the extremes of Des Moines doing so well compared to Iowa as whole just ho humming it. Omaha is more in line with Nebraska as a whole comparatively, while obviously still doing better than the state on average. We also have two cities doing rather well. One could argue that Iowa City is doing well too, but it is much smaller than Lincoln. Cedar Rapids, and Davenport are outright shrinking now (if we believe the estimates. they were trending this way pre-covid regardless)

[Cermak]

You also need to take into consideration Lincoln, Des Moines does not have another metro of 330k 50 miles away, which is also a vibrant growing community. Yes they have Ames but it's a considerably smaller city. Iowa City is a good 100 miles away and close to a 2 hour drive. If you add the raw numbers of Omaha and Lincoln together from the 2020 census they are more than Des Moines gained. As everyone knows you literally can be in downtown Omaha and in downtown Lincoln in about a 50 minute drive. And besides Iowa City the rest of Iowas metros are stagnant or shrinking. The Quad Cities and Waterloo haven't grown in decades. Cedar Rapids has usually had slow growth or sometimes a decline, ditto with Sioux City and Dubuque. Ames has had good growth but its metro is less than 135k still. And is approximately 1/3 the size of Lincoln with less density and urbanization . Just some other factors that come into play here. Not to take anything away from Des Moines growth which is substantial and impressive. Especially for a Midwest city.

[Louie]

I nerded out a bit and did some quick numbers comparing the two CSAs (not MSAs). The Oskaloosa MicroSA is included in the Des Moines CSA and it takes an hour and 15 min to drive from that city to downtown Des Moines (which is kind of on the SE/Oskaloosa side of the city already). It takes less than that to drive from the southern edge of Lincoln to downtown Omaha, practically crossing both of the primary cities in their entirety. It's a shame the commuter traffic isn't enough to qualify the CSA.

[Renovator2559]

You also need to take into consideration Lincoln, Des Moines does not have another metro of 330k 50 miles away, which is also a vibrant growing community. Yes they have Ames but it's a considerably smaller city. Iowa City is a good 100 miles away and close to a 2 hour drive. If you add the raw numbers of Omaha and Lincoln together from the 2020 census they are more than Des Moines gained. As everyone knows you literally can be in downtown Omaha and in downtown Lincoln in about a 50 minute drive. And besides Iowa City the rest of Iowas metros are stagnant or shrinking. The Quad Cities and Waterloo haven't grown in decades. Cedar Rapids has usually had slow growth or sometimes a decline, ditto with Sioux City and Dubuque. Ames has had good growth but its metro is less than 135k still. And is approximately 1/3 the size of Lincoln with less density and urbanization . Just some other factors that come into play here. Not to take anything away from Des Moines growth which is substantial and impressive. Especially for a Midwest city.

Great points, I agree. Also, I would add, that Kearney ~33k and to a lesser extent Grand Island ~52k are also growing pretty well and as you mention, the same cannot be said about Iowa small cities.

[Athomsfere]

DSM proper has been growing at like 1/3 of our rate... I think that's an important note. DSM might be growing faster, but we have what appears to be healthier growth.

[Linkin5]

DSM proper has been growing at like 1/3 of our rate... I think that's an important note. DSM might be growing faster, but we have what appears to be healthier growth.

How much of the Omaha proper growth is annexation though?

[Garrett]

Polk County grew by about 62,000 people between 2010 and 2020, and Douglas County grew by about 67,000. I'd need to do some more digging but I don't see the data that would indicate Omaha is seeing more urban growth in particular than Des Moines.

[nativeomahan]

I would argue that raw numbers are less significant than the percentage of population growth. Metro KC grows by more people per decade than metro DSM or OMA, but it has a slower growth rate.

[Athomsfere]

I would argue that raw numbers are less significant than the percentage of population growth. Metro KC grows by more people per decade than metro DSM or OMA, but it has a slower growth rate.

I always look at rate, personally. Gross numbers don't tell very much

[Athomsfere]

Polk County grew by about 62,000 people between 2010 and 2020, and Douglas County grew by about 67,000. I'd need to do some more digging but I don't see the data that would indicate Omaha is seeing more urban growth in particular than Des Moines.

For me, I was looking just at the city propers for the comparison.

[nativeomahan]

Des Moines is hemmed in by its suburbs. Omaha is not.