2023 Weather Thread

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Sat Jul 01, 2023 11:26 pm

Most places in Omaha received another 1-2” of rain today (with heavier stuff to our south).

The radar estimated rain total map KETV just showed is waaaaaayyy off, not sure why they used it. They claim only .43” in Plattsmouth and 0.00” in Columbus…umm, no

Post by **Brad** » Sat Jul 01, 2023 11:27 pm

So close... 0.98" here...

Now at 2.13” for the week. Near 90th and Center.

Post by **BRoss** » Sun Jul 02, 2023 2:02 am

1.31" today here.

2.70" total over the last few days.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Sun Jul 02, 2023 5:39 pm

Next chance for severe weather in our area is Tuesday with what will probably be mostly a damaging wind/hail threat.

Unfortunately, depending on timing, these could impact fireworks celebrations in the area….

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Sun Jul 02, 2023 9:12 pm

stormchaser wrote: Sun Jul 02, 2023 5:39 pm Next chance for severe weather in our area is Tuesday with what will probably be mostly a damaging wind/hail threat.

Unfortunately, depending on timing, these could impact fireworks celebrations in the area….

I'm seeing big chances starting at 7pm on my Weather Underground app. Is that what you expect as well?

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Sun Jul 02, 2023 10:03 pm

Louie wrote: Sun Jul 02, 2023 9:12 pm
stormchaser wrote: Sun Jul 02, 2023 5:39 pm Next chance for severe weather in our area is Tuesday with what will probably be mostly a damaging wind/hail threat.

Unfortunately, depending on timing, these could impact fireworks celebrations in the area….
I'm seeing big chances starting at 7pm on my Weather Underground app. Is that what you expect as well?

Yeah but full disclosure exact timing is always tough to know - especially this far out and will probably change some. Wouldn’t shock me if it ends up sometime after 9 or 10 PM.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Mon Jul 03, 2023 5:13 pm

Unfortunately it’s becoming increasingly likely storms will move through at a time that will probably disrupt firework celebrations with storms depicted to move through sometime around 9 or 10 tomorrow night. Like I said before, exact timing can be tough to forecast so don’t be surprised if things change some yet.

Here is the simulated radar for 9 PM based on the 12z HRRR:

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Mon Jul 03, 2023 6:26 pm

Thanks for the intel as always stormchaser..We’re going to a cookout and definitely celebrating the 4th tonight, lol..

Regarding the storms developing tomorrow evening, any chance the severe risk stays “Slight” or “Marginal”, or is the potential mix volatile enough to move the threat to “Enhanced”?…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Mon Jul 03, 2023 6:45 pm

Omaha Cowboy wrote: Mon Jul 03, 2023 6:26 pm Thanks for the intel as always stormchaser..We’re going to a cookout and definitely celebrating the 4th tonight, lol..

Regarding the storms developing tomorrow evening, any chance the severe risk stays “Slight” or “Marginal”, or is the potential mix volatile enough to move the threat to “Enhanced”?…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

No problem, it’s always possible to see an upgrade but I’d expect it to be more to our west/northwest if it does occur (IMO anyway). We will “probably” stay in a slight risk unless things change yet.

Either way, potential for damaging wind and hail seems fairly likely in much of eastern NE if things verify as shown.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Mon Jul 03, 2023 6:54 pm

stormchaser wrote: Mon Jul 03, 2023 6:45 pm
Omaha Cowboy wrote: Mon Jul 03, 2023 6:26 pm Thanks for the intel as always stormchaser..We’re going to a cookout and definitely celebrating the 4th tonight, lol..

Regarding the storms developing tomorrow evening, any chance the severe risk stays “Slight” or “Marginal”, or is the potential mix volatile enough to move the threat to “Enhanced”?…

Ciao..LiO…Peace
No problem, it’s always possible to see an upgrade but I’d expect it to be more to our west/northwest if it does occur (IMO anyway). We will “probably” stay in a slight risk unless things change yet.

Either way, potential for damaging wind and hail seems fairly likely in much of eastern NE if things verify as shown.

Thanks again- As always, I hope we get a decent rain event out of this..

But will definitely be keeping my eyes to the sky…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Tue Jul 04, 2023 4:59 am

It does look to be perfect timing to disrupt celebrations. Although independence day is my favorite holiday, money can't buy a decent thunderstorm. So I will gladly forego blowing up fireworks if we get a solidly threatening thunderstorm out of it.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Jul 04, 2023 1:31 pm

Here is the latest...

Based on the 12z HRRR, we may or may not be impacted by severe storms in Omaha specifically this evening (the best chance will be to our west and south with another potential area to our northwest though that is less certain). It will probably be very close though if we don't get hit.

That being said, even if we don't end up getting hit by any of the severe weather, we will still likely get storms and hopefully some much needed rain.

The timing still looks like it will impact 4th of July celebrations with much of the precip moving into the local area sometime in the 7 PM to midnight time frame (with the highest chance locally around 9 or 10 PM).

Here is the latest simulated radar from the 12z HRRR (for 5 PM - 1 AM):

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Jul 04, 2023 1:43 pm

It's worth noting that it will be important to see what happens with the current storms in parts of northeast NE/southeast SD.

Over the next few hours, these storms should start dying out. As they do, they will produce an outflow boundary that will be the trigger for storm development later today. Where this outflow boundary ends up will probably determine if Omaha itself is impacted by severe weather or not.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Jul 05, 2023 12:12 am

Unless things fill in more, most of Omaha will unfortunately only get minimal rain with most of it hitting southwest/far south Omaha. Hopefully things fill in quickly here though.

GetUrban · Post by **GetUrban** » Wed Jul 05, 2023 12:53 am

So far the Omahdome stands firm.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Wed Jul 05, 2023 1:05 am

Ridiculous..

Barely got a sprinkle in west Omaha. Literally everything significant hit north and south of metro Omaha..

Omadome strikes again- unfortunately…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Wed Jul 05, 2023 1:13 am

Omaha Cowboy wrote: Wed Jul 05, 2023 1:05 am
Omadome strikes again- unfortunately…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Agreed

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Jul 05, 2023 1:34 am

I think it’s going to finally start filling in over the next few hours so “hopefully” we will get something decent yet but certainly missed out on a lot so far and it may end up being too little too late…

Cermak · Post by **Cermak** » Wed Jul 05, 2023 3:24 am

Nice steady moderate rain in SW Omaha about 9:30 this evening.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Wed Jul 05, 2023 1:45 pm

Thankfully the rain ended up being more significant than earlier in the evening when it appeared there was just going to be a sprinkle here and there…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Thu Jul 06, 2023 2:58 pm

"Hopefully" we will get some decent rainfall late tonight into tomorrow.

The 12z HRRR is showing a swath of showers and thunderstorms moving through the area after midnight tonight and lasting until 9 AM (roughly) tomorrow with some areas seeing near or in excess of an inch of rain (some localized areas in excess of 2"-3"+ of rain). I'd be surprised if they are that high but a half inch or more of rain seems realistic for most people in the area - especially areas north of Omaha.

Based on recent history, Omaha will be narrowly missed (I'm kidding...kinda).

Fingers crossed anyway we get hit this time...

Simulated radar based on the 12z HRRR starting around midnight:

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Thu Jul 06, 2023 5:27 pm

Ketv's noon forecast looked promising. Though she thought it'd start later and last a little longer, with the bulk of it between 6am and 10am, wrapping up the last bits by noon. Fingers surely crossed though, as historically Omaha does split storms right in half.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Thu Jul 06, 2023 6:02 pm

Busguy2010 wrote: Thu Jul 06, 2023 5:27 pm Ketv's noon forecast looked promising. Though she thought it'd start later and last a little longer, with the bulk of it between 6am and 10am, wrapping up the last bits by noon. Fingers surely crossed though, as historically Omaha does split storms right in half.

Yeah, realistically most of it will probably be after 3 AM but timing is always tough to pin down so who knows. Either way, hopefully we get something decent anyway.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Thu Jul 06, 2023 9:28 pm

I hope it holds off. I'm tired of all the good stuff happening at or before daybreak

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Thu Jul 06, 2023 9:39 pm

Busguy2010 wrote: Thu Jul 06, 2023 9:28 pm I hope it holds off. I'm tired of all the good stuff happening at or before daybreak

Unfortunately night time stuff is pretty typical this time of year. That being said, I'd expect the vast majority of the local precip to fall sometime in the 5 AM - 9 AM range in our area (with it starting maybe as early as 3 AM but the majority will be a couple hours later)...

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Fri Jul 07, 2023 4:09 am

Then again, timing keeps slowing down so now the majority looks to happen after 7 AM…

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Fri Jul 07, 2023 1:21 pm

Weather Underground is still saying that the rain will continue throughout the day, but the radar doesn't look like there'll be much after lunch. Is this supposed to build back up?

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Fri Jul 07, 2023 1:26 pm

Louie wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 1:21 pm Weather Underground is still saying that the rain will continue throughout the day, but the radar doesn't look like there'll be much after lunch. Is this supposed to build back up?

There will be some scattered stuff that redevelops behind this initial band of heavy rain - but certainly not an all day rain

.

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Fri Jul 07, 2023 1:30 pm

stormchaser wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 1:26 pm
Louie wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 1:21 pm Weather Underground is still saying that the rain will continue throughout the day, but the radar doesn't look like there'll be much after lunch. Is this supposed to build back up?
There will be some scattered stuff that redevelops behind this initial band of heavy rain - but certainly not an all day rain .

Got it, that's too bad!

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Fri Jul 07, 2023 1:33 pm

We’re having a decent morning rain event in my neck of the woods in west Omaha..

Just what the yard Dr ordered

…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

almighty_tuna · Post by **almighty_tuna** » Fri Jul 07, 2023 1:33 pm

Got some nice rumbles of thunder at the home office. I'll take it!

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Fri Jul 07, 2023 4:13 pm

The majority of the precip is now ending in Omaha (though we may get some scattered stuff yet over the next few hours into early this afternoon). Based on radar estimates, most of Omaha was in the .5" up to 1" of rain range with areas south of 370 getting excess of 1".

Next round of rain/potential severe weather looks possible on Tuesday July 11th with potential for a damaging wind/hail event in the area with storms riding along the northern edge of ridging/capping. It's too far out to know though 100% that these storms will happen and exactly where if they do but something to keep an eye on.

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Fri Jul 07, 2023 6:41 pm

Just checked my gauge, we got 1.3" in Bellevue.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Fri Jul 07, 2023 9:34 pm

skinzfan23 wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 6:41 pm Just checked my gauge, we got 1.3" in Bellevue.

Nice!

I should mention, there will be a threat for scattered storms Monday night as well but the main risk of more widespread storms and potential for severe weather is Tuesday evening/night with a pretty typical summer time pattern (hat/humid during the day with a damaging wind threat in the evening into the overnight).

This doesn't mean Omaha specifically will be at risk - but somewhere nearby probably (wherever the edge of the ridge/capping ends up).

I'd be surprised if the SPC doesn't add parts of our area to an outlook as we get closer...

Cermak · Post by **Cermak** » Sat Jul 08, 2023 1:13 am

Seems like we should be making a dent in the drought with these rains , I got an inch at my house today, at least it's not bone dry anymore.

GetUrban · Post by **GetUrban** » Sat Jul 08, 2023 3:04 am

We had 1.02” in the last 24 hours and 2.09” for July so far, in northeast Douglas Co. What a relief.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Sat Jul 08, 2023 3:16 am

Cermak wrote: Sat Jul 08, 2023 1:13 am Seems like we should be making a dent in the drought with these rains , I got an inch at my house today, at least it's not bone dry anymore.

I dunno, welcome rain for sure, I dont remember the quote verbatum, but "we have to have well above average moisture for a good six months in order to get back to 'x'".

I'll be looking where we're at at the end of the month.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Sat Jul 08, 2023 3:19 am

Any word on what the record low high is for today? I know that info is hard to find, but usually the local meteorologists will point it out if we're close. 69 for today seems like it should be in the neighborhood.

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Sat Jul 08, 2023 1:26 pm

Busguy2010 wrote: Sat Jul 08, 2023 3:19 am Any word on what the record low high is for today? I know that info is hard to find, but usually the local meteorologists will point it out if we're close. 69 for today seems like it should be in the neighborhood.

Who is predicting 69? Most outlets I've seen are showing 78-79 as the highs.

Cermak · Post by **Cermak** » Sat Jul 08, 2023 1:56 pm

Louie wrote: Sat Jul 08, 2023 1:26 pm
Busguy2010 wrote: Sat Jul 08, 2023 3:19 am Any word on what the record low high is for today? I know that info is hard to find, but usually the local meteorologists will point it out if we're close. 69 for today seems like it should be in the neighborhood.
Who is predicting 69? Most outlets I've seen are showing 78-79 as the highs.

Think he was referring to yesterday, we only had a high of 69, which is unusually cool for July.