2023 Weather Thread

[GetUrban]

Seems like we should be making a dent in the drought with these rains , I got an inch at my house today, at least it's not bone dry anymore.

I dunno, welcome rain for sure, I dont remember the quote verbatum, but "we have to have well above average moisture for a good six months in order to get back to 'x'".

I'll be looking where we're at at the end of the month.

Good point. On one of the news stations they interviewed a farmer who said the dry soil is down to 4 feet in his field. Of course that varies depending on the elevation and type of soil, but it’s going to take a while to recharge the subsurface conditions.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Lawn just freshly mowed this morning..

I’ll say this, the rain we’ e gotten the past 10 or so days has saved many lawns in my neighborhood.. Including yours truly.. NOTHING greens up a lawn better than rain water…

Looking good now …

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Louie]

Any word on what the record low high is for today? I know that info is hard to find, but usually the local meteorologists will point it out if we're close. 69 for today seems like it should be in the neighborhood.

Who is predicting 69? Most outlets I've seen are showing 78-79 as the highs.

Think he was referring to yesterday, we only had a high of 69, which is unusually cool for July.

Well |expletive| my bad

[Cermak]

Looks like more rain coming this week, it hasn't been a real hot summer so far at least by Omaha standards. We've had a few days in the low 90's but that's been it. Anything above 95 I don't like.

[stormchaser]

As expected, the SPC has added much of the area (including Omaha) to an outlook for Tuesday. Primarily a damaging wind threat (with some hail) after midnight in our area Tuesday overnight.

Storms are possible Monday night as well though most of it should stay west and north of the Omaha area.

Outlook for Tuesday:

[stormchaser]

Still looking like most of the storms today/tonight will miss Omaha to the north and west (as expected).

I saw some of the local media showing simulated radar that had storms impacting Omaha this afternoon already which made me cringe tbh since basically none of the primary forecast models agree (except for the RPM since that's what they like to use on-air) so I'm not sure why they showed that since odds of it happening are extremely low. IF we get anything locally, it won't be until evening and mostly as storms are dying out. The severe weather "should" remain north and west of us today/tonight and mostly be from near Sioux City down toward Columbus and Hastings on west (roughly).

Tomorrow will be our primary severe weather day in the local area with the potential for a damaging wind event (with hail) during the evening/overnight hours - very typical of summer time. Unfortunately this could cause a relatively large swath of damaging wind from far southern SD/north central NE into our area.

Severe weather outlook for tomorrow:

[Omaha Cowboy]

Tuesday looks like the potential for a very active evening/overnight..

As always, the hope is for a significant rain event only …

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[stormchaser]

Tuesday looks like the potential for a very active evening/overnight..

As always, the hope is for a significant rain event only …

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Possibly anyway. These setups are always concerning from a forecasting perspective because ultimately what you're trying to figure out is exactly what height is the capping and exactly what temp does it need to cool off to for storms to develop and be able to sustain themselves which fluctuates depending on several other factors (so there are a ton of variables to consider in addition to the normal stuff).

Additionally, what happens later today/tonight will play a role in what happens tomorrow as the storms tonight will produce different boundaries as they die out, etc for the next round of storms to interact with.

Long story short, it wouldn't surprise me if the primary risk ends up north of Omaha depending on how strong the capping ends up being and the local area ends up getting mostly missed. This is something the 12z HRRR is already showing but it's impossible to really know yet.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Definitely rain and thunder in my area of west Omaha…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[stormchaser]

Definitely rain and thunder in my area of west Omaha…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Yep, remnants of the severe weather to our north. I’ll take the rain though!

[Omaha Cowboy]

Definitely rain and thunder in my area of west Omaha…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Yep, remnants of the severe weather to our north. I’ll take the rain though!

Absolutely agree …

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Brad]

Another great day for photogenic storms in Nebraska today to the north and west.

[Cermak]

A good rain yesterday evening. Should help with drought. And no severe weather.

[stormchaser]

Based on model trends, it is looking less likely that Omaha will miss out on the storms tonight (previous model runs had been showing the possibility of everything staying just north of town).

If these model trends continue, a late night damaging wind event will be likely across much of eastern NE/western IA including in Omaha. This will include the potential for widespread wind damage in addition to at least some hail (though the main threat for large hail will be closer to the NE/SD border as these storms first develop).

This doesn't mean 100% Omaha specifically will be hit. Odds are relatively high but things can always quickly change and it's almost impossible to know for sure.

Here is the day 1 outlook for today. Later this morning, I will post a simulated radar from the 12z HRRR showing the likely track of these storms (once its available in ~45 minutes or so):

[stormchaser]

Based on the 12z HRRR, the severe weather threat in the Omaha area will be sometime around 2-3 AM and will include more of a hail threat than I was initially thinking (in addition to damaging wind).

As I've mentioned many times, trying to forecast exact timing with storms like this can be extremely difficult so don't be surprised if the actual time is somewhat different - but sometime after Midnight storms should move into the area.

Radar loop is from 9 PM tonight until 5 AM:

[stormchaser]

Storms with the potential of producing wind gusts of 70 mph+ are possible after midnight tonight and may cause a swath of significant wind damage from parts of central NE (north of Grand Island down through Columbus, Fremont, Lincoln and the Omaha metro).

It honestly wouldn't surprise me to see localized wind gusts in excess of 80 mph. In addition, large hail will be possible though that is still more likely to happen in parts of central/northern NE.

Right now the area most at risk for significant wind damage appears to be from near Columbus down toward Wahoo (roughly) and possibly through parts of the Omaha metro (southwest side in particular though it's tough to really know).

The highest risk timeframe for the Omaha metro appears to be sometime between 2 AM and 4 AM.

Just giving a heads up that it's looking increasingly likely the overnight is going to be interesting in parts of the area. That doesn't mean things will 100% happens as depicted and maybe we will dodge a bullet but odds are certainly increasing anyway.

Here is a simulated radar from the 18z HRRR showing a pronounced bow that develops in parts of the area:

[Omaha Cowboy]

Storms with the potential of producing wind gusts of 70 mph+ are possible after midnight tonight and may cause a swath of significant wind damage from parts of central NE (north of Grand Island down through Columbus, Fremont, Lincoln and the Omaha metro).

It honestly wouldn't surprise me to see localized wind gusts in excess of 80 mph. In addition, large hail will be possible though that is still more likely to happen in parts of central/northern NE.

Right now the area most at risk for significant wind damage appears to be from near Columbus down toward Wahoo (roughly) and possibly through parts of the Omaha metro (southwest side in particular though it's tough to really know).

The highest risk timeframe for the Omaha metro appears to be sometime between 2 AM and 4 AM.

Just giving a heads up that it's looking increasingly likely the overnight is going to be interesting in parts of the area. That doesn't mean things will 100% happens as depicted and maybe we will dodge a bullet but odds are certainly increasing anyway.

Here is a simulated radar from the 18z HRRR showing a pronounced bow that develops in parts of the area:

Yeah- a severe weather threat is never the best overnight when everyone is sleeping..

Thanks for the intel and here’s hoping we just get another decent rain and some thunder…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Busguy2010]

Hopefully not a repeat of July 10th, 2021.

I've seen all sources and they are all trending the point of the bow echo would be slightly south of here. We all know there's no guarantees though. Seems like a pretty sure bet there'll be a fairly significant event.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Definitely don’t need another July 10th 2021. We had 90mph wind gusts with that storm and a ton of tree damage…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[stormchaser]

Hopefully not a repeat of July 10th, 2021.

I've seen all sources and they are all trending the point of the bow echo would be slightly south of here. We all know there's no guarantees though. Seems like a pretty sure bet there'll be a fairly significant event.

It probably won’t be as bad as that event but still potentially pretty bad. Latest model run of the HRRR hits Omaha pretty hard (previous runs were slightly south) but things have been fluctuating between a damaging wind event and a heavy rain event (with minimal severe weather). I’m still expecting a damaging wind event but that trend will need to be watched over the next few hours.

Based on the mesoanalysis, a boundary exists basically from near Rapid City directly to Omaha so I’m expecting Omaha to probably be in the main risk area for damaging wind (if there is that threat which I believe there will be but only time will tell).

I’m still thinking 2 AM - 4 AM will be the primary time frame for damaging wind locally. Additionally we will likely get some pretty heavy rain.

[stormchaser]

Definitely don’t need another July 10th 2021. We had 90mph wind gusts with that storm and a ton of tree damage…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Unfortunately there will be that potential but I don’t think this round will be quite that bad but we will see.

[GetUrban]

Given what might be coming later tonight, it’s a good time to gather up any loose lawn furniture, hammocks, stacking chairs, umbrellas, etc. and get them stowed out of the way of potential paths of wind.

[stormchaser]

Given what might be coming later tonight, it’s a good time to gather up any loose lawn furniture, hammocks, stacking chairs, umbrellas, etc. and get them stowed out of the way of potential paths of wind.

Definitely a good idea though my confidence is gradually decreasing as recent model runs have added more uncertainty than anything.

That doesn't mean we won't get hit now but odds have started to decrease again. Obviously don't let down your guard but the cap may prove too strong this time and have much of the storms/severe weather miss us to the north (and possibly a big chunk of the precip too).

Gotta love forecasting these things. Just a TINY change in the temp aloft can make a HUGE difference in what actually happens and forecast models are currently struggling with trying to figure it out.

[Busguy2010]

Looks like the storms are currently thriving up in the NW corner of SD. Guessing those are the ones that will make it here later, correct me if I'm wrong. Local news outlets said they'd fire farther south and a lot earlier. They were saying 2am on our door step, now I wouldn't be surprised with 5-7am.

[stormchaser]

Looks like the track shifted north but not enough to miss Omaha. Storms moving in, some with 80+ mph wind’s reported though most places it won’t be that strong. Widespread tree damage is fairly likely though.

[Louie]

Lotta rain, some wind but definitely nothing over 50mph. Ive seen a handful of pea size hail.

[Cermak]

Lotta rain, some wind but definitely nothing over 50mph. Ive seen a handful of pea size hail.

Same here in SW Omaha, not on the scale as the storm almost exactly 2 years ago, luckily.

[ShawJ]

Was a little gnarly north of town. High winds and power is out, but wasn’t as bad as I thought it was going to be based on the radar.

[stormchaser]

Yeah north side of Omaha on north lots of reports of 70-80+ mph. I’m not surprised it wasn’t to the scale of the big July storm - parameters weren’t really the same. But significant tree damage reported in some areas (like Fort Calhoun, etc)

[stormchaser]

Some of the wind speeds and damage reports from the area (there are more).

Several reports of 70 mph+ winds and at least one of over 80 mph.

Reported wind speed is the 2nd number in from the left:



Full list of wind/damage reports can be found here: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/230711_rpts.html

[Coyote]

KETV viewers capture Wednesday morning's severe weather



KETV NewsWatch 7 viewers reported damage as the thunderstorms moved through the metro.

[Coyote]

Thunderstorms cause power outages, down trees in Omaha area



Thunderstorms caused power outages, down trees in Omaha area on Wednesday morning.

[Coyote]

Thunderstorm front moves into Omaha on Wednesday morning



KETV Chief Photographer Scott Buer captured the storm front moving into Omaha from the 10th Street bridge.

[Coyote]

Wednesday morning storms bring rain and wind



Wednesday morning storms bring rain and wind to the Omaha area

[Omaha Cowboy]

Yeah north side of Omaha on north lots of reports of 70-80+ mph. I’m not surprised it wasn’t to the scale of the big July storm - parameters weren’t really the same. But significant tree damage reported in some areas (like Fort Calhoun, etc)

You were pretty spot on. Had some tree/limb damage in my area of west Omaha. Fortunately my property was okay…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[skinzfan23]

1.25” south of Bellevue….hopefully putting a further dent in the drought

[stormchaser]

Yeah north side of Omaha on north lots of reports of 70-80+ mph. I’m not surprised it wasn’t to the scale of the big July storm - parameters weren’t really the same. But significant tree damage reported in some areas (like Fort Calhoun, etc)

You were pretty spot on. Had some tree/limb damage in my area of west Omaha. Fortunately my property was okay…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Timing was off some but that's usually the toughest part and the track shifted slightly further north and impacted more of the north metro than the south...but still, not a bad overall forecast even though my confidence started to decrease some last night ...

[Cermak]

Not the best thing to wake up to at 6:30 am.

[Brad]

Not the best thing to wake up to at 6:30 am.

If you are interested in weather, you should purchase the Radar Scope app. That thing was way more impressive in velocity mode! The entry level app is only $10.

[Brad]

Looks like the first survey from this morning is in and Bancroft, NE had an EF1 tornado.

Half mile long with 100mph winds. Assuming it was a classic QLSC on the leading edge of the line.