2023 Weather Thread

Post by **Brad** » Thu Jul 13, 2023 1:19 pm

Second Damage Survey is in. Now an EF2 south of Logan, IA.

9.4 miles long with 120mph winds

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Thu Jul 13, 2023 8:56 pm

Brad wrote: Thu Jul 13, 2023 1:19 pm Second Damage Survey is in. Now an EF2 south of Logan, IA.

9.4 miles long with 120mph winds

EF2 is pretty strong for a tornado embedded in a line of storms like that...

Post by **Brad** » Fri Jul 14, 2023 1:25 am

Up to 7 tornadoes now confirmed from yesterday's Storm.

Howells, Colfax County, NE = EF1

Bancroft, Cuming County, NE = EF1

Tekamah, Burt County, NE = EF0

Central Harrison County, IA = EF2

Portsmouth, Shelby County, IA = EF1

Avoca, Pottawattamie County = EF1

Walnut, Pottawattamie County = EF0

Read all about it here:
https://www.weather.gov/oax/20230712

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Fri Jul 14, 2023 12:17 pm

Looks like we will probably get some much needed rain here in eastern NE (including Omaha) later this morning into this afternoon.

An isolated strong/severe storm will be possible too but most of that threat should be confined to far southern NE into KS.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Fri Jul 14, 2023 3:49 pm

The SPC shifted the slight risk further north some so now it's just south of Omaha with an enhanced risk near the border on into KS.

I still don't think the risk in Omaha itself is very high but it's possible we could still get a few severe warned storms in the local area (though most of should be more in far south NE - along and south of I-80 on south into KS).

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Fri Jul 14, 2023 4:27 pm

Looks like we could get one more quick decent shot, but still looks like a better shot for the south part of the metro.

damonhynes · Post by **damonhynes** » Fri Jul 14, 2023 4:46 pm

Were there any tornado warnings issued Wed morning? I was up before six and didn't see any. NEXLAB doesn't go that far back.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Fri Jul 14, 2023 5:22 pm

damonhynes wrote: Fri Jul 14, 2023 4:46 pm Were there any tornado warnings issued Wed morning? I was up before six and didn't see any. NEXLAB doesn't go that far back.

No, none that I saw anyway...

damonhynes · Post by **damonhynes** » Fri Jul 14, 2023 5:30 pm

stormchaser wrote: Fri Jul 14, 2023 5:22 pm
damonhynes wrote: Fri Jul 14, 2023 4:46 pm Were there any tornado warnings issued Wed morning? I was up before six and didn't see any. NEXLAB doesn't go that far back.
No, none that I saw anyway...

:-)

Cermak · Post by **Cermak** » Fri Jul 14, 2023 9:27 pm

More rain today and no severe weather, my lawns not looking dry anymore. This has been a rainy week. A little less than a 1/2 inch today I measured in SW Omaha.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Sat Jul 15, 2023 3:50 am

We actually are at 3.49" for the month, where the "new normal" (as I consider it because the last several years have lowered the average) is 3.55" Not a bad spot to be at not even halfway through the month.

But remember we need "well above average" if we hope to significantly break any drought. Hoping for at least 4.5" by the end of the month.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Mon Jul 17, 2023 2:46 am

Wow, NWS talking about HEAVY rain Tuesday. Currently talking about 1.5", which would totally blow away that "well above average" mark for the month.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Mon Jul 17, 2023 3:51 am

Mother Nature is doing her part keeping my utilities bill low this month..

More rain this Monday and Tuesday? Bring it on

…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Mon Jul 17, 2023 12:24 pm

Severe warned storm (for hail) moving toward Omaha - if it holds together. Probably mostly northern half of Omaha may be impacted by damaging hail.

Radar as of ~7:20 AM

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Mon Jul 17, 2023 1:12 pm

Getting some rain with thunder this morning in west Omaha…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Mon Jul 17, 2023 2:23 pm

Looks like most the Omaha metro got some heavy rain for a bit there.

Post by **Brad** » Mon Jul 17, 2023 2:37 pm

Louie wrote: Mon Jul 17, 2023 2:23 pm Looks like most the Omaha metro got some heavy rain for a bit there.

"For a Bit" being the real story... It was in and out quick. Looks like all the weather stations around my area (90th and Center) got around 0.2".

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Mon Jul 17, 2023 2:40 pm

Brad wrote: Mon Jul 17, 2023 2:37 pm
Louie wrote: Mon Jul 17, 2023 2:23 pm Looks like most the Omaha metro got some heavy rain for a bit there.
"For a Bit" being the real story... It was in and out quick. Looks like all the weather stations around my area (90th and Center) got around 0.2".

I got nearly a half in Dundee. Eppley reported .38 as well.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Mon Jul 17, 2023 4:02 pm

Louie wrote: Mon Jul 17, 2023 2:40 pm
Brad wrote: Mon Jul 17, 2023 2:37 pm
Louie wrote: Mon Jul 17, 2023 2:23 pm Looks like most the Omaha metro got some heavy rain for a bit there.
"For a Bit" being the real story... It was in and out quick. Looks like all the weather stations around my area (90th and Center) got around 0.2".
I got nearly a half in Dundee. Eppley reported .38 as well.

Northern half of Omaha got .25-.5 (with a few areas more), southern half mostly .25 or less based on radar estimates anyway

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Mon Jul 17, 2023 4:38 pm

stormchaser wrote: Mon Jul 17, 2023 4:02 pm
Louie wrote: Mon Jul 17, 2023 2:40 pm
Brad wrote: Mon Jul 17, 2023 2:37 pm
Louie wrote: Mon Jul 17, 2023 2:23 pm Looks like most the Omaha metro got some heavy rain for a bit there.
"For a Bit" being the real story... It was in and out quick. Looks like all the weather stations around my area (90th and Center) got around 0.2".
I got nearly a half in Dundee. Eppley reported .38 as well.
Northern half of Omaha got .25-.5 (with a few areas more), southern half mostly .25 or less based on radar estimates anyway

Should we expect a round 2 later this evening or early AM?…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Mon Jul 17, 2023 4:52 pm

Omaha Cowboy wrote: Mon Jul 17, 2023 4:38 pm
stormchaser wrote: Mon Jul 17, 2023 4:02 pm
Louie wrote: Mon Jul 17, 2023 2:40 pm
Brad wrote: Mon Jul 17, 2023 2:37 pm
Louie wrote: Mon Jul 17, 2023 2:23 pm Looks like most the Omaha metro got some heavy rain for a bit there.
"For a Bit" being the real story... It was in and out quick. Looks like all the weather stations around my area (90th and Center) got around 0.2".
I got nearly a half in Dundee. Eppley reported .38 as well.
Northern half of Omaha got .25-.5 (with a few areas more), southern half mostly .25 or less based on radar estimates anyway
Should we expect a round 2 later this evening or early AM?…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Yes sir, late tonight into tomorrow anyway. Possibly some fairly heavy rain in places too.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Mon Jul 17, 2023 5:12 pm

stormchaser wrote: Mon Jul 17, 2023 4:52 pm
Omaha Cowboy wrote: Mon Jul 17, 2023 4:38 pm
stormchaser wrote: Mon Jul 17, 2023 4:02 pm
Louie wrote: Mon Jul 17, 2023 2:40 pm
Brad wrote: Mon Jul 17, 2023 2:37 pm
Louie wrote: Mon Jul 17, 2023 2:23 pm Looks like most the Omaha metro got some heavy rain for a bit there.
"For a Bit" being the real story... It was in and out quick. Looks like all the weather stations around my area (90th and Center) got around 0.2".
I got nearly a half in Dundee. Eppley reported .38 as well.
Northern half of Omaha got .25-.5 (with a few areas more), southern half mostly .25 or less based on radar estimates anyway
Should we expect a round 2 later this evening or early AM?…

Ciao..LiO…Peace
Yes sir, late tonight into tomorrow anyway. Possibly some fairly heavy rain in places too.

Thank you, as always

…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Mon Jul 17, 2023 7:03 pm

No problem!

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Jul 18, 2023 12:20 pm

Main round of rain is currently moving in. Heaviest rain totals should remain to our west and south though...

Post by **BRoss** » Tue Jul 18, 2023 2:08 pm

I'm really sick of this cool weather in July.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Jul 18, 2023 3:06 pm

BRoss wrote: Tue Jul 18, 2023 2:08 pm I'm really sick of this cool weather in July.

Ehh, rain for today should mostly be done (aside from 1 more small wave coming through) and things should warm up to around 80 at least.

Temps this week should gradually warm and by Sunday, highs will be in the low to mid-90s again...

almighty_tuna · Post by **almighty_tuna** » Tue Jul 18, 2023 3:17 pm

BRoss wrote: Tue Jul 18, 2023 2:08 pm I'm really sick of this cool weather in July.

No way, dude!! It's a big treat in the midst of summer and I can't wait until fall arrives. I'm definitely not a hot weather guy.

ChadJK · Post by **ChadJK** » Tue Jul 18, 2023 3:36 pm

I'm picturing the scene at public pools over the last few weeks where lifeguards are huddled around someone's phone waiting for the weather app to find lightening within x number of miles. Then, when it happens, they squeal with delight and close the pool. There is no more vigilant amateur meteorologist than a teen lifeguard who wants to go home.

Cermak · Post by **Cermak** » Tue Jul 18, 2023 3:50 pm

almighty_tuna wrote: Tue Jul 18, 2023 3:17 pm
BRoss wrote: Tue Jul 18, 2023 2:08 pm I'm really sick of this cool weather in July.
No way, dude!! It's a big treat in the midst of summer and I can't wait until fall arrives. I'm definitely not a hot weather guy.

I like the cool weather as well, we have been getting a lot of morning rains lately. But it usually warms up in the afternoon. Yesterday evening was fantastic, we turned the air conditioning off and opened some windows. Anytime you can do that in July is great. Next week looks hot and back to summer in Omaha.

Post by **BRoss** » Tue Jul 18, 2023 4:22 pm

almighty_tuna wrote: Tue Jul 18, 2023 3:17 pm
BRoss wrote: Tue Jul 18, 2023 2:08 pm I'm really sick of this cool weather in July.
No way, dude!! It's a big treat in the midst of summer and I can't wait until fall arrives. I'm definitely not a hot weather guy.

I'm totally a hot weather guy. Love 80s late into the evening a waking up first thing to 70+. I would not mind living in the south with the brutal heat lol.

almighty_tuna · Post by **almighty_tuna** » Tue Jul 18, 2023 4:34 pm

Cermak wrote: Tue Jul 18, 2023 3:50 pm
almighty_tuna wrote: Tue Jul 18, 2023 3:17 pm
BRoss wrote: Tue Jul 18, 2023 2:08 pm I'm really sick of this cool weather in July.
No way, dude!! It's a big treat in the midst of summer and I can't wait until fall arrives. I'm definitely not a hot weather guy.
I like the cool weather as well, we have been getting a lot of morning rains lately. But it usually warms up in the afternoon. Yesterday evening was fantastic, we turned the air conditioning off and opened some windows. Anytime you can do that in July is great. Next week looks hot and back to summer in Omaha.

Yeah, last night was fantastic! Driving around w/the top off the Jeep - couldn't be beat! Next week? Blah.

almighty_tuna · Post by **almighty_tuna** » Tue Jul 18, 2023 4:34 pm

BRoss wrote: Tue Jul 18, 2023 4:22 pm
almighty_tuna wrote: Tue Jul 18, 2023 3:17 pm
BRoss wrote: Tue Jul 18, 2023 2:08 pm I'm really sick of this cool weather in July.
No way, dude!! It's a big treat in the midst of summer and I can't wait until fall arrives. I'm definitely not a hot weather guy.
I'm totally a hot weather guy. Love 80s late into the evening a waking up first thing to 70+. I would not mind living in the south with the brutal heat lol.

Oof...I just started chafing at the thought of southern heat/humidity.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Tue Jul 18, 2023 4:58 pm

Last night was rather comfortable. Really the whole month has been cooler and wetter than normal. Definitely a far departure from your typical Omaha July. A real treat. I cannot recall the last time we had a summer this comfortable.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Jul 18, 2023 5:52 pm

At least part of the reason we've had this change to more of a wetter/cooler weather patterns is the rapidly (and earlier than normal) strengthening El Nino this year in the Pacific which has kept much of the ridging out west and consequently we've been in mostly a northwesterly flow bringing repeated storm systems into our area from the northwest.

Assuming El Nino hangs on throughout the Winter (which it probably will considering the strength of it), there is a relatively good chance that the northern half of the United States will see a warmer than normal winter this year and either below average precip or about average in our area (depending on the exact placement of the southern branch of the jet stream during the winter months).

Typically a northern branch of the jet will keep much of the cold/arctic air up in Canada (as depicted in the image below). Of course that doesn't mean we won't see fluctuations in the weather pattern and get occasional shots of cold/arctic air, but as a whole right now I'd expect things to play out like I said above.

Source: https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html

Image below represents a typical winter El Nino weather pattern:

Cermak · Post by **Cermak** » Tue Jul 18, 2023 8:16 pm

Is Omaha still in extreme drought ?

Plenty of lush lawns around town right now.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Tue Jul 18, 2023 8:32 pm

I haven't watered my garden since July 3rd and it is just fine, if not too wet.

As of last Thursday, yes still in extreme drought : https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentM ... or.aspx?NE

It could change next release since we've gotten an inch or so since then. However, with the upper 90's in the extended forecast, it likely will go back.

Post by **Brad** » Tue Jul 18, 2023 8:58 pm

Busguy2010 wrote: Tue Jul 18, 2023 8:32 pm As of last Thursday, yes still in extreme drought : https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentM ... or.aspx?NE

While that is released on Thursday, the data is taken 2 days before on Tuesday.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Jul 19, 2023 12:12 pm

Severe weather is possible today/tonight in much of eastern NE with the potential for supercells including the threat for large/very large hail, damaging wind and isolated tornadoes.

The primary threat in Omaha itself will probably be this evening (sometime between 7 PM and Midnight). These storms will be scattered so the chances we will be missed will be way higher than they are that we will get hit - but there will be some very strong storms in the area anyway and if one goes through Omaha, its going to cause widespread damage probably (from the hail).

This is the latest outlook from the SPC:

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Jul 19, 2023 4:05 pm

Based on pretty much everything I've seen on models so far today, I'd be surprised if there ends up being much of a threat in the local area today/tonight. Most everything severe will probably stay well west of Omaha...unless things change of course

thenewguy · Post by **thenewguy** » Wed Jul 19, 2023 5:30 pm

will we get some more rain?