2023 Weather Thread

[thenewguy]

Tornado warned storm up near Sioux city... good call

[Busguy2010]

So since that didn't happen, there should be more available energy for the storms that are on their way down currently NW or Norfolk.

[stormchaser]

Potentially soon to be tornado warned storm northwest of Omaha (near Scribner) and another strengthening heading towards south of Fremont and will eventually head into Omaha. Heads up, these things could quickly produce tornadoes

[Busguy2010]

After Freddy's snapped these pictures of the beautiful thunderheads head headed our way, backlit by the sunset. They're currently west of Fremont and might end up on top of us. Nothing impressive on radar, but beautiful to see.

[stormchaser]

Otherwise large hail will be the main threat…

[stormchaser]

Tornado threat on the northern storm near Scribner has decreased for now. Area of rotation was undercut. Southern storm is struggling to strengthen more…for now anyway.

[stormchaser]

Tornado did touch down near Scribner. Also a funnel was reported on the storm west of Fremont. Neither were tornado warned for some reason as they both had pretty obvious relatively tight rotation. Hopefully no serious damage.

Both storms are weakening currently…

[stormchaser]

Possible tornado currently on the storm moving through north of Blaire

[BRoss]

Seeing constant lightning up north from Gene Leahy.

[stormchaser]

New storm firing on the north side of Omaha (along 680)…

[Busguy2010]

You can see the cold front on radar over Fremont. One little guy out by waterloo that could pop up like the 680 one did, but otherwise think our chances are pretty well over.

[Cermak]

Unusual weather day for early August. Cool with drizzle. Forecast says a high of only 75.

[Busguy2010]

Overall this summer has been a far departure from recent ones. Sure, a fair share of miserable days, but overall very fair. I'd be interested at the end of August to see where this meteorological summer ranks compared to recent years. Hopefully somebody comes out with that.

But yeah, the NWS is even saying only 73. That is borderline fall weather, if not for the dewpoint. It won't be long, summer is running out of time.

[BRoss]

But yeah, the NWS is even saying only 73. That is borderline fall weather, if not for the dewpoint. It won't be long, summer is running out of time.

Don't get your hopes up yet. While it could certainly change, last I saw, September is forecast to be well above average temperatures.

So far today, it has had it up to 76. Tried to go on a short walk and was almost immediately met with rain again. About to try again.

[Busguy2010]

I know it can be 75 on December 15th, and 100 on September 20th. Just saying odds are against summer, days getting shorter, change is coming, cool start to August...

Makes me wonder, with climate change, have we just gotten used to hotter than normal summers? Is this summer more like how it's actually supposed to be? A lot has changed in my relatively short lifetime alone. I'm curious if some of our more experienced members can remember better than I do.

What was summer like in the 60's, 70's and 80's? More like this summer? More like what it's been in the last decade? I'm genuinely curious in just general feel. Was there a lot of commenting on it being too hot, etc?

[BRoss]

I know it can be 75 on December 15th, and 100 on September 20th. Just saying odds are against summer, days getting shorter, change is coming, cool start to August...

Here's the thing I was referencing about September:


Looks like NOAA has it at equal chances, so who knows what will happen, especially with how far out it is still.

[Louie]

Makes me wonder, with climate change, have we just gotten used to hotter than normal summers? Is this summer more like how it's actually supposed to be? A lot has changed in my relatively short lifetime alone. I'm curious if some of our more experienced members can remember better than I do.

It is wild that we are so used to every summer being the hottest in recorded history that a more typical summer shocks our system .

[thenewguy]

I know it can be 75 on December 15th, and 100 on September 20th. Just saying odds are against summer, days getting shorter, change is coming, cool start to August...

Here's the thing I was referencing about September:


Looks like NOAA has it at equal chances, so who knows what will happen, especially with how far out it is still.

hope the second one is right

[nativeomahan]

I know it can be 75 on December 15th, and 100 on September 20th. Just saying odds are against summer, days getting shorter, change is coming, cool start to August...

Makes me wonder, with climate change, have we just gotten used to hotter than normal summers? Is this summer more like how it's actually supposed to be? A lot has changed in my relatively short lifetime alone. I'm curious if some of our more experienced members can remember better than I do.

What was summer like in the 60's, 70's and 80's? More like this summer? More like what it's been in the last decade? I'm genuinely curious in just general feel. Was there a lot of commenting on it being too hot, etc?

I have lived through a LOT of summers in Omaha. Each one is unique, but overall July and the first half of August are normally fairly scorching, the trend in recent years seems to be that June has gotten much hotter, and so has September. We always seem to get a few unusually cool days in July (often mid month). This year July averaged about 2.5 degrees cooler (less hot?) than average. But June was quite a bit warmer than average. Too early to say about August but it has certainly started off much more pleasant and wet than is typical.

[Busguy2010]

I have lived through a LOT of summers in Omaha. Each one is unique, but overall July and the first half of August are normally fairly scorching, the trend in recent years seems to be that June has gotten much hotter, and so has September. We always seem to get a few unusually cool days in July (often mid month). This year July averaged about 2.5 degrees cooler (less hot?) than average. But June was quite a bit warmer than average. Too early to say about August but it has certainly started off much more pleasant and wet than is typical.

I agree, July and August tend to be our hottest. That's been far from the case this year. That's why I say summer's days are pretty much numbered. Fall can still be hot in terms of degrees, but it hits different when the days are shorter, the humidity is lower, the sun is further south.

I watched Bill Randy's extended forecast and he indicated really nothing different. Pretty much normal (highs in the low to mid 80's) for the foreseeable future, which is fantastic IMO.

[Busguy2010]

This is easily the heaviest rain I've seen this year, if not within the last couple years. Super heavy. I wanted to go outside and watch it but I knew I'd by completely oversaturated within 3-5 seconds.

[stormchaser]

Based on radar estimates, a narrow swath just south of I-80 was the big winner last night with rain totals between 1 inch and a little over 1.6" in a few spots. Most places in Omaha received at least .5" of rain with the exception being in the Millard area and parts of north/northwest Omaha.

Here are the radar estimated rain totals from last night:

[stormchaser]

This weekend the potential for severe weather increases again for parts of our area. Saturday, severe weather looks possible in parts of western/central Nebraska.

On Sunday, there is potential here in eastern Nebraska into Iowa. The SPC currently has a day 5 severe weather outlook for parts of our area.

All storm modes will be possible this weekend including damaging wind, hail, and tornadoes (especially on Sunday). It's obviously several days away yet so things can change but it's something to keep an eye on.

Here is the day 5 severe weather outlook for Sunday that includes parts of our area:

[Cermak]

This weekend the potential for severe weather increases again for parts of our area. Saturday, severe weather looks possible in parts of western/central Nebraska.

On Sunday, there is potential here in eastern Nebraska into Iowa. The SPC currently has a day 5 severe weather outlook for parts of our area.

All storm modes will be possible this weekend including damaging wind, hail, and tornadoes (especially on Sunday). It's obviously several days away yet so things can change but it's something to keep an eye on.

Here is the day 5 severe weather outlook for Sunday that includes parts of our area:

I don't ever recall severe storms in the Omaha area during the month of August at least in
my 30 years of living here. May yes, June yes, July yes but less common than May or June , August No. My minimal definition of a severe storm would be at least a 50 mph gust and heavy rain with some hail. Hopefully it doesn't happen.

[stormchaser]

I don't ever recall severe storms in the Omaha area during the month of August at least in
my 30 years of living here. May yes, June yes, July yes but less common than May or June , August No. My minimal definition of a severe storm would be at least a 50 mph gust and heavy rain with some hail. Hopefully it doesn't happen.

It's not completely uncommon though July and August tend to be more damaging wind/hail severe weather events late at night (due to the heat) so they probably aren't as memorable .

Average tornadoes by month for Nebraska:



What was odd was chasing (and seeing at least 1 tornado) on December 15 a couple years ago. That was my 60th tornado that I've seen and my first one I had seen in December leaving only January and February as months where I haven't seen one.

Nearly 100 tornadoes in the middle of December this far north is crazy though!

[Busguy2010]

Based on radar estimates, a narrow swath just south of I-80 was the big winner last night with rain totals between 1 inch and a little over 1.6" in a few spots. Most places in Omaha received at least .5" of rain with the exception being in the Millard area and parts of north/northwest Omaha.

That's funny, I'm nowhere near any of those areas estimated to get the most. I have no way of knowing how much I got, but it was coming down as hard as it possibly could for at least 10 minutes for sure, but I can guess it was probably 20, up to 30 minutes. So I'd guess I got somewhere close to what those higher areas got. I'm thinking those radar estimates might not be all that.

[stormchaser]

Based on radar estimates, a narrow swath just south of I-80 was the big winner last night with rain totals between 1 inch and a little over 1.6" in a few spots. Most places in Omaha received at least .5" of rain with the exception being in the Millard area and parts of north/northwest Omaha.

That's funny, I'm nowhere near any of those areas estimated to get the most. I have no way of knowing how much I got, but it was coming down as hard as it possibly could for at least 10 minutes for sure, but I can guess it was probably 20, up to 30 minutes. So I'd guess I got somewhere close to what those higher areas got. I'm thinking those radar estimates might not be all that.

It’s an estimate so it’s not going to be 100% accurate no matter what (especially anytime there is hail). That said, I doubt it’s off by that much too. Eppley reported less than .4” which is pretty close to what the radar estimates show for that area.

Boys town also reported less than .2” (with heavier stuff just barely northwest of there) which also aligns relatively close to estimates.

https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-l ... period=P7D

I also briefly looked at the weather stations on Wunderground.com and most that I can find report rain totals that align with the estimates.

That said, estimates are just that - estimates and it doesn't mean it can't be wrong or that you're wrong with the heavy rain in your area that you saw (I have no idea for a very localized area how much rain they got). But in my experience, these radar estimates are usually fairly accurate (again, unless there is hail).

[stormchaser]

Official rainfall reports from yesterday/so far today are up:

Link: https://www.weather.gov/oax/rainreports

Based on these I would guess that narrow swath of heavier rain depicted on estimates in the southern Omaha/La Vista area was probably hail in that area (even if the hail was aloft and melted before falling to the surface).

...Douglas County...
NWS Omaha/Valley 0.79 in 0100 PM 08/09 41.32N/96.36W
1.1 E Ralston 0.76 in 0115 PM 08/09 41.21N/96.02W
3.1 E Ralston 0.72 in 0125 PM 08/09 41.21N/95.98W
Omaha 0.60 in 0126 PM 08/09 41.27N/95.99W
Omaha 0.48 in 0127 PM 08/09 41.27N/96.03W
1.4 SW Omaha 0.44 in 1245 PM 08/09 41.24N/96.02W
3.7 NW Omaha 0.40 in 1250 PM 08/09 41.31N/96.05W
Omaha Eppley Airfield 0.39 in 1252 PM 08/09 41.32N/95.90W
2.1 W Boys Town 0.36 in 1250 PM 08/09 41.25N/96.17W
Millard Airport 0.36 in 0115 PM 08/09 41.20N/96.12W
1.6 NW Bennington 0.36 in 0115 PM 08/09 41.38N/96.18W
3.6 NE Boys Town 0.32 in 0100 PM 08/09 41.31N/96.10W
Bennington 0.1 E 0.29 in 1100 AM 08/09 41.37N/96.15W
Omaha 0.29 in 0130 PM 08/09 41.24N/96.07W
1.7 N Chalco 0.28 in 0115 PM 08/09 41.21N/96.13W
3.6 NE Boys Town 0.28 in 0120 PM 08/09 41.31N/96.10W
2.8 E Boys Town 0.20 in 1235 PM 08/09 41.25N/96.08W
1.1 NW Elkhorn 0.20 in 0115 PM 08/09 41.29N/96.25W
Omaha 0.17 in 0130 PM 08/09 41.23N/96.15W
3.9 N Boys Town 0.15 in 0115 PM 08/09 41.31N/96.12W
Bennington 0.15 in 0125 PM 08/09 41.32N/96.11W
3 SE Bennington 0.15 in 0130 PM 08/09 41.32N/96.11W
2.9 E Bennington 0.12 in 0100 PM 08/09 41.36N/96.10W
0.9 N Millard 0.09 in 0115 PM 08/09 41.22N/96.16W
0.8 SE Boys Town 0.04 in 1245 PM 08/09 41.25N/96.12W
1.5 NW Omaha 0.04 in 0105 PM 08/09 41.28N/96.03W
1.9 W Carter Lake 0.04 in 0130 PM 08/09 41.28N/95.95W
2.1 S Carter Lake 0.01 in 0100 PM 08/09 41.26N/95.92W
5.6 NW Omaha 0.01 in 0115 PM 08/09 41.34N/96.05W

[stormchaser]

Definitely some hail that moved through southern parts of the metro last night that threw off the radar estimated rain totals in that area.

Out of curiosity I went back and looked at archived radar data from last night and you can see the hail core show up (plus there is a hail report near Chalco toward the beginning of the hail core). That doesn't mean everyone along it's path saw hail - some could have melted as it fell. Regardless, it causes radar estimates to be too high in that area.

Below is an animation from last night. The top window shows the estimated rainfall totals. The bottom shows the "specific differential phase 1" which is one way you can see a hail core with radar.

[stormchaser]

Updated severe weather outlook for Sunday. A westward shift in the risk area which isn't surprising based on trends on forecast models (specifically the ECMWF). This puts more of eastern NE in the risk area.

Still looks like all storm modes will be possible (including a threat for tornadoes) but the primary threats will probably be damaging wind/hail - at least as things grow upscale along the cold front. Still a few days away yet though so plenty could change.

Here is the updated SPC outlook:

[stormchaser]

Also, there is a risk for severe weather today with scattered strong/severe storms in the area.

The HRRR shows these developing in western NE and dying out before they get here. However, the 3KM NAM shows a more robust severe weather threat. So not great model agreement between the 2. Model trends will need to be watched over the next few hours to see if they start to better align.

Anyhow, something for people to pay attention to later this afternoon and this evening. Damaging wind and large hail will be the main threat with any storms that develop but an isolated tornado can't be ruled out (especially northwest of here).

[almighty_tuna]

Oof, I hope it stays mellow until after Jazz on the Green! I've been looking forward to Ana Popovic all season!

[stormchaser]

Oof, I hope it stays mellow until after Jazz on the Green! I've been looking forward to Ana Popovic all season!

Chances are relatively high that the weather will cooperate for this today. If we get storms in the local area, it's "probably" going to be a night time/overnight threat in our area (probably after midnight). Or at least that's how it looks right now anyway...

[almighty_tuna]

I'll take it! Thanks!

[stormchaser]

I'll take it! Thanks!

No problem!

[stormchaser]

The HRRR has started to show a potential supercell developing in the area this evening (after 9 PM).

I'm not convinced that this will happen (not yet anyway), but something to keep an eye on to see if model trends continue and then to see if visible satellite, mesoanalysis, etc later start showing an environment favorable for a storm like this.

[Cermak]

Another rain this afternoon about 1/4 inch in SW Omaha. Everyone's lawns are looking green and thick , especially for this time of year. Mid-August is usually a pretty hot and dry time around Omaha, not this year.

[stormchaser]

Probably going to target around Beatrice later this afternoon for a severe storm and at least some tornado threat in that area though obviously I'll be watching visible satellite, mesoanalysis, etc to adjust throughout the day..

Omaha may or may not see storms later. If it clears out long enough and depending on timing that front comes through, we might (it'll be close). If they do develop in time, large hail, damaging wind, and isolated tornadoes will be a threat.

[stormchaser]

Clearing skies are starting to move into the metro. For how long is going to depend on if that cloud cover to the north continues shifting south into our area. Areas like Beatrice will stay in the clearing longer which is one of the reasons that seems like a good starting point.

Visible satellite as of 7:55 AM

[stormchaser]

Pulled the plug on chasing. Air is probably too stable with cloud cover even down in Beatrice. Oh well though.