2023 Weather Thread

GetUrban · Post by **GetUrban** » Thu Aug 31, 2023 8:58 pm

16 days without any measurable rain in northeast DOCO. Good thing we had such a wet July and early August, but I'm starting to worry all of the extra plant growth we had from all that rain is going to dry out and become a big fire hazard.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Fri Sep 01, 2023 7:08 am

GetUrban wrote: Thu Aug 31, 2023 8:58 pm 16 days without any measurable rain in northeast DOCO. Good thing we had such a wet July and early August, but I'm starting to worry all of the extra plant growth we had from all that rain is going to dry out and become a big fire hazard.

Yeah, we were lucky we had lots of precip in months we typically don't. Like you said, though, it could end up being a double-edged sword if things dry out too much.

This weekend into early next week is going to be hot too so that won't help any.

The risk for at least some scattered storms (and possibly some severe weather) start to increase next week - especially toward the end of the week (Thursday/Friday) as ridging starts to break down. After that, it looks like we get into more of a northwesterly flow so more seasonable weather.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Fri Sep 01, 2023 7:46 am

I saw the KETV meteorologist team forecast highs of 98, 98 and 97 for Saturday, Sunday and Labor Day Monday..

Definitely another late summer heat stretch. Hopefully the last? Time to start watering the lawn again…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Post by **Brad** » Fri Sep 01, 2023 7:54 am

Omaha Cowboy wrote: Fri Sep 01, 2023 7:46 am I saw the KETV meteorologist team forecast highs of 98, 98 and 97 for Saturday, Sunday and Labor Day Monday..

Going to be a brutal day at Hutch Fest!

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Fri Sep 01, 2023 9:24 am

Brad wrote: Fri Sep 01, 2023 7:54 am
Omaha Cowboy wrote: Fri Sep 01, 2023 7:46 am I saw the KETV meteorologist team forecast highs of 98, 98 and 97 for Saturday, Sunday and Labor Day Monday..
Going to be a brutal day at Hutch Fest!

Agreed..

I was hoping to go down to Millwork Commons in the early afternoon Sunday. Might try to angle that a bit earlier, lol…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

nativeomahan · Post by **nativeomahan** » Fri Sep 01, 2023 4:15 pm

Overall, it was an unusually “average” summer in Omaha, with temperatures averaging exactly equal to the 30 year average, and precipitation almost exactly equal to what could be expected. Obviously there was a dry period to start the summer, and a wetter than average July, but our recent trend of warmer than average summertimes took a break this year.

Cermak · Post by **Cermak** » Fri Sep 01, 2023 8:56 pm

nativeomahan wrote: Fri Sep 01, 2023 4:15 pm Overall, it was an unusually “average” summer in Omaha, with temperatures averaging exactly equal to the 30 year average, and precipitation almost exactly equal to what could be expected. Obviously there was a dry period to start the summer, and a wetter than average July, but our recent trend of warmer than average summertimes took a break this year.

It's been a nice summer overall, was dry at first but we had a rainy July. And last week which was extremely hot humid, but it only lasted a week. Some years heat waves drag on for 2 or 3 weeks or longer.

Cermak · Post by **Cermak** » Tue Sep 05, 2023 9:20 pm

Pretty strong front blew through this evening. A hint that fall is around the corner. Opened some windows up turned off the air.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Wed Sep 06, 2023 11:26 am

I was totally surprised by how strong the cold front was. It feels amazing outside. I don't think it was projected to be this cool today. Not even projected to get to 80 and that's a generous projection. Then the upcoming forecast period is trending cooler. Sign me up!

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Wed Sep 06, 2023 11:42 am

Yes, crazy change in temps. Heat index yesterday morning was in the 90's and it felt horrible, by early evening it was already in the 70's.

We opened our windows as well last night. Almost feels cool out this morning. Went for a walk in Aksarben Village and a lot of people were wearing jackets.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Wed Sep 06, 2023 8:40 pm

I'm tempted to open the windows tonight, but there's also that darn smoke hanging around. Getting down to 55 with dewpoints in the 40s it feels almost criminal not to.

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Wed Sep 06, 2023 9:02 pm

Terrible smoke today.

Cermak · Post by **Cermak** » Wed Sep 06, 2023 9:40 pm

north of downtown today.

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Fri Sep 08, 2023 7:57 am

Anyone get anything measurable last night? We had some light rain in the evening but definitely had some showers overnight.

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Fri Sep 08, 2023 9:14 am

I got around .05" in Bellevue.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Fri Sep 08, 2023 11:52 am

It was very unexpected. It was crazy, I saw one single flash of lightning, then one Crack of thunder, then the sky opened up. I definitely got a decent amount, it came down real hard for about 5 minutes, and then it was over.

Cermak · Post by **Cermak** » Sat Sep 09, 2023 9:02 am

Looks like we are entering a nice long stretch of very comfortable weather, but could use a little rain. September is possibly Omaha's nicest weather month. October usually pretty nice too. November things start to go downhill.

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Sat Sep 09, 2023 10:59 am

Cermak wrote: Sat Sep 09, 2023 9:02 am Looks like we are entering a nice long stretch of very comfortable weather, but could use a little rain. September is possibly Omaha's nicest weather month. October usually pretty nice too. November things start to go downhill.

Hopefully the forecast is right and we get a couple shots before the weekend is over.

nativeomahan · Post by **nativeomahan** » Sat Sep 09, 2023 11:47 am

Cermak wrote: Sat Sep 09, 2023 9:02 am Looks like we are entering a nice long stretch of very comfortable weather, but could use a little rain. September is possibly Omaha's nicest weather month. October usually pretty nice too. November things start to go downhill.

I totally agree. Great temperatures, lots of sunshine and low humidity are the hallmark of early autumn in the Midwest. Fantastic picnic weather is just beginning.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Sep 13, 2023 3:59 pm

Beautiful weather continues in our area - but a stark reminder that severe weather/strong tornadoes can still occur this time of year with an EF-4 tornado hitting parts of eastern NE on this day back in 1928:

https://www.3newsnow.com/weather/weathe ... se-tornado

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Sat Sep 16, 2023 8:51 am

Sone much needed rain (and small hail) moving across the metro currently…

Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Sat Sep 16, 2023 9:12 am

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Mon Sep 18, 2023 7:55 am

Our next threat for severe weather will potentially be this coming Saturday (September 23rd) based on both the 00z ECMWF and 00z GFS. However, it will depend on several factors including timing the low/boundaries push through and if things can clear off enough for the atmosphere to destabilize out ahead of said low pressure/boundaries.

Considering it's several days away yet, its impossible to know.

IF things clear off enough, I wouldn't be shocked to see a tornado threat somewhere in the region (right now, most likely to our east into Iowa but again, it's too far out to really know specifics and it isn't uncommon for storm systems to move slower than depicted several days in advance so the threat could very well end up here). Surface winds right now are depicted to be pretty marginal so the threat isn't huge, but there would still probably be one depending on how things come together. At the very least a large hail threat anyway.

Anyhow, something to just be aware of/keep an eye on.

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Mon Sep 18, 2023 9:03 am

Thanks for the heads up. I was thinking of going to the Husker game, but haven't bought tickets yet.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Mon Sep 18, 2023 9:57 am

skinzfan23 wrote: Mon Sep 18, 2023 9:03 am Thanks for the heads up. I was thinking of going to the Husker game, but haven't bought tickets yet.

No problem!

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Mon Sep 18, 2023 9:50 pm

stormchaser wrote: Mon Sep 18, 2023 7:55 am Our next threat for severe weather will potentially be this coming Saturday (September 23rd) based on both the 00z ECMWF and 00z GFS. However, it will depend on several factors including timing the low/boundaries push through and if things can clear off enough for the atmosphere to destabilize out ahead of said low pressure/boundaries.

Considering it's several days away yet, its impossible to know.

IF things clear off enough, I wouldn't be shocked to see a tornado threat somewhere in the region (right now, most likely to our east into Iowa but again, it's too far out to really know specifics and it isn't uncommon for storm systems to move slower than depicted several days in advance so the threat could very well end up here). Surface winds right now are depicted to be pretty marginal so the threat isn't huge, but there would still probably be one depending on how things come together. At the very least a large hail threat anyway.

Anyhow, something to just be aware of/keep an eye on.

Nothing like an early Fall tornado threat..

As always, hope for just a nice rain event only…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Mon Sep 18, 2023 10:39 pm

Omaha Cowboy wrote: Mon Sep 18, 2023 9:50 pm Nothing like an early Fall tornado threat..

As always, hope for just a nice rain event only…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

I agree. It’s worth mentioning it’s also possible our primary risk will occur Friday/Friday evening (if the the low pushes through faster).

Tons of uncertainty yet, but definitely at least some potential for now anyway (it could obviously go “poof” too and just end up being more of a rain event if things don’t clear out enough).

Like always, it should be interesting…

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Sep 19, 2023 7:24 am

The SPC is now on board with what I was seeing/talking about yesterday with the potential for severe weather this coming Friday/Saturday in the area.

The SPC has a "day 4" (for Friday) and "day 5" (for Saturday) severe weather outlook. Based on what I've observed in models, I still feel like Saturday will probably be the primary tornado risk day since that is when the storm system is expected to go "negative tilt" which typically increases the tornado threat near and just south of the area of low pressure along the cold front. However, like I also said yesterday, it will depend on the amount of clearing that occurs out ahead of the low/boundaries as well as the timing it all pushes through if Omaha itself is at risk.

Friday will also have at least some threat for tornadoes as well - just probably not as widespread or to the same extent as the potential threat for Saturday.

Both days will have a damaging wind/hail threat too in addition to the threat for tornadoes.

Here is the Day 4 outlook from the SPC for Friday:

Here is the Day 5 outlook from the SPC for Saturday:

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Sep 19, 2023 7:42 am

Just for reference, my "way too early" target zone for chasing Saturday (that will undoubtedly change some) is in an area from Nebraska City to Falls City on east/northeast into Iowa/far northern Missouri all the way to I-35 (probably starting near Nebraska City/Falls City as storms first fire and staying with them as they move east/northeast from there).

My thought (right now anyway), is storms that occur on Friday/Friday evening will push through and leave an east/west aligned outflow boundary to our south along the NE/KS border. As the low pressure moves up from the southwest on Saturday, this boundary will become more of a warm front feature and should add to the helicity in the atmosphere and will cause storms to rotate even more increasing the tornado potential (in addition to the area of low pressure). If this scenario plays out as depicted, a relatively high tornado threat would occur in that area. but obviously it's impossible to know this far out. Just mentioning it for the fun of it and to show the potential right now looks pretty close to our area.

I'd expect things to change a fair amount though as we get closer so obviously don't hold me to any of this

thenewguy · Post by **thenewguy** » Tue Sep 19, 2023 8:12 am

so Saturday may be a significant rain-maker? We have a school event outside all day...I'll have to dig out some umbrellas

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Sep 19, 2023 8:59 am

thenewguy wrote: Tue Sep 19, 2023 8:12 am so Saturday may be a significant rain-maker? We have a school event outside all day...I'll have to dig out some umbrellas

Yeah, a decent chance anyway though it shouldn't be an all-day event. "Maybe" some rain early in the morning as overnight stuff pushes through and dies out. Then redevelopment should occur during the mid to late afternoon hours.

Most of the first half of the day should be pretty decent though - unless things change of course.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Tue Sep 19, 2023 1:14 pm

stormchaser wrote: Tue Sep 19, 2023 8:59 am
thenewguy wrote: Tue Sep 19, 2023 8:12 am so Saturday may be a significant rain-maker? We have a school event outside all day...I'll have to dig out some umbrellas
Yeah, a decent chance anyway though it shouldn't be an all-day event. "Maybe" some rain early in the morning as overnight stuff pushes through and dies out. Then redevelopment should occur during the mid to late afternoon hours.

Most of the first half of the day should be pretty decent though - unless things change of course.

Definitely in if it’s a decent rain event…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Sep 19, 2023 1:57 pm

I created a VERY preliminary forecast map showing my current thoughts for risk areas on Saturday.

To clarify, there may be some strong/severe storms further west and north of this area earlier in the morning on Saturday before things clear out and the area most at risk starts to destabilize again.

Like I've said before, still TONS of uncertainty but depending on how things come together, I wouldn't rule out a strong tornado or 2 near the area of low pressure/warm front and to just south of the low pressure along the cold front. It's tough to really know until we get closer how realistic that risk is. Also, obviously Omaha is still at risk, especially if things shift north at all in the coming days. But even if it doesn't, there will be a risk for severe weather in the local area.

North of the warm front (which currently includes the Omaha metro), there will be at least some isolated tornado threat during the afternoon/evening but mostly it should be a large hail/damaging wind threat.

Anyhow, here is my preliminary forecast map for the area most at risk (click on the sections to see the labels to help better explain things). Expect things to change as we get closer.

**Edit**
I added a secondary potential tornado threat area in far northeast NE/southeast SD (including potential for a strong tornado or 2) based on the 12z ECMWF that just came out showing a second area of low pressure and consequently a tornado risk area near it. This area very well "could" become the primary tornado risk area depending how things end up coming together.

Still tons of uncertainty obviously. I'll update this accordingly as we get closer.

https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/edit? ... sp=sharing

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Sep 19, 2023 4:39 pm

Added much of eastern NE/western IA to my risk area for Saturday. Right now I'm thinking more of an damaging wind/hail threat with isolated tornadoes in Omaha and areas outlined but not filled in.

I realize my risk area is a fair amount different than the SPC has. I'm thinking the risk area has shifted west a fair amount and for the most part, I'm just focusing on areas in and around eastern NE/western IA (so I'm not drawing other areas on the map that will probably see severe weather if they aren't in our region).

Same link as above. I'll keep updating this map throughout the event (just an FYI):
https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/edit? ... sp=sharing

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Sep 19, 2023 9:37 pm

Made a few more adjustments to my forecast map (mostly as I learn how to use the app and edit the maps and trying to tweak things so it's easier to understand/use).

You can click on the individual layers on the left (on desktop) or on the individual layers themselves using Google maps on your phone to see more detailed info for that specific area (just so people know). On phone it's kind of a pain in the |expletive| because tapping on layers doesn't always work. You can turn layers off though if you need to by tapping on "view map legend" and unchecking a layer.

I will post a bigger update in the morning after all of the 00z runs come in tonight.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Sep 20, 2023 7:37 am

Below are the latest severe weather outlooks from the SPC (for Friday and Saturday). I'm honestly a bit surprised but it seems they are favoring the GFS over the ECMWF as they still don't show a risk area for southeast SD/northeast NE/northwest IA which I currently believe will be the primary area at risk for tornadoes on Saturday (based on recent runs of the ECMWF).

Who knows though until medium/short range models start picking up on the storm. That said the GFS has been all over the place so personally, I'm mostly disregarding it currently until it shows more run to run consistency.

I updated my forecast map here: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/edit? ... sp=sharing

SPC outlook link (since I can't post an image due to a "502 bad gateway error").
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

thenewguy · Post by **thenewguy** » Wed Sep 20, 2023 9:42 am

I hope it skirts past us...

The rain last night was a nice surprise, though

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Wed Sep 20, 2023 11:25 am

thenewguy wrote: Wed Sep 20, 2023 9:42 am I hope it skirts past us...

The rain last night was a nice surprise, though

That's funny. I went outside at 2am cause I could hear rumbles of thunder. Initially I didn't know which way to look, so I assumed west, but wrong. I enviously watched the constant lightning to our east. I never did get rain. Apparently only the very farthest east reaches of Omaha got some, along with CB and other western Iowa cities. Eppley reported .35", which is quite a decent amount. Too bad that's an isolated recording. 99% of the metro got nothing.

Post by **BRoss** » Wed Sep 20, 2023 11:26 am

Busguy2010 wrote: Wed Sep 20, 2023 11:25 am
thenewguy wrote: Wed Sep 20, 2023 9:42 am I hope it skirts past us...

The rain last night was a nice surprise, though
That's funny. I went outside at 2am cause I could hear rumbles of thunder. Initially I didn't know which way to look, so I assumed west, but wrong. I enviously watched the constant lightning to our east. I never did get rain. Apparently only the very farthest east reaches of Omaha got some, along with CB and other western Iowa cities. Eppley reported .35", which is quite a decent amount. Too bad that's an isolated recording. 99% of the metro got nothing.

Yep, also got nothing.

thenewguy · Post by **thenewguy** » Wed Sep 20, 2023 1:13 pm

BRoss wrote: Wed Sep 20, 2023 11:26 am
Busguy2010 wrote: Wed Sep 20, 2023 11:25 am
thenewguy wrote: Wed Sep 20, 2023 9:42 am I hope it skirts past us...

The rain last night was a nice surprise, though
That's funny. I went outside at 2am cause I could hear rumbles of thunder. Initially I didn't know which way to look, so I assumed west, but wrong. I enviously watched the constant lightning to our east. I never did get rain. Apparently only the very farthest east reaches of Omaha got some, along with CB and other western Iowa cities. Eppley reported .35", which is quite a decent amount. Too bad that's an isolated recording. 99% of the metro got nothing.
Yep, also got nothing.

there were a couple of booms that woke me up in the middle of the night, but not enough to keep me awake