Downtown core population- hits 7000. People moving downtown

[Louie]

If Amazon is affordable, then I think that it would be very successful in DTO. Otherwise, I think that the wealthy people with condos are always going to go to Costco, Whole Foods, or to a restaurant. But again, I think that anything other than a unique grocery store will fail. Maybe people in the forum who live downtown will disagree with me? Are you all wanting a big box store that always carries every flavor of Hamburger Helper?

As a person who lived in the core area of Omaha for 6 years, what I don’t think would work, is plopping a big box HyVee, like you’d see at 180th and Q or 178th and Pacific, in the central business district (or even North Downtown).. But there are national and regional grocery chains which know how to design a full service urban specific designed store..and whomever takes the plunge, will be serving a rapidly growing population base which will probably number about 10,000 in population by 2023/24..and likely end this decade close to 14-15,000 thousand..

So no, a suburban soccer family style grocery store would not fit in the core..but a smartly designed full service urban grocery concept would..and that’s what we’re talking about for the 68102 zip code..

Hamburger Helper notwithstanding ..,

Ciao..LiO…Peace

As some one who has lived in the core for most of my time in Omaha, I think this is fair.

I want some actual, semi-predictable grocer options. I don't need or want a Hy-Vee with clothing and pans, but just fresh produce, meats, and basic dry-goods.

I'd actually be even happier if we just got a year round farmers market type place, with multiple local vendors under one roof.

Real shame that never materialized.

[yard salad]

I think the question of a DT grocery store comes down to parking and mass transit. If Douglas County/Omaha mandate some minimum number of parking, then a parking garage is the only answer. For a car-dependent city like Omaha, it still might be the only answer. A store that is profitable in West Omaha would not be profitable downtown if it involved building a parking garage.

Des Moines has a Hy-Vee downtown which is likely not profitable and more of a prestige symbol for the Des Moines-based company.

Speaking for myself, I live near 33rd and Leavenworth. I go to the Nuestra Familia only if I absolutely have to, since their prices are higher than even Hy-Vee's and they do not carry much of what my wife and I prefer. We drive to Hy-Vee on 50th/Center or Bakers on Leavenworth/Saddle Creek for basics and once every few weeks go out to Costco for bulk items.

[Omaha Cowboy]

If Amazon is affordable, then I think that it would be very successful in DTO. Otherwise, I think that the wealthy people with condos are always going to go to Costco, Whole Foods, or to a restaurant. But again, I think that anything other than a unique grocery store will fail. Maybe people in the forum who live downtown will disagree with me? Are you all wanting a big box store that always carries every flavor of Hamburger Helper?

As a person who lived in the core area of Omaha for 6 years, what I don’t think would work, is plopping a big box HyVee, like you’d see at 180th and Q or 178th and Pacific, in the central business district (or even North Downtown).. But there are national and regional grocery chains which know how to design a full service urban specific designed store..and whomever takes the plunge, will be serving a rapidly growing population base which will probably number about 10,000 in population by 2023/24..and likely end this decade close to 14-15,000 thousand..

So no, a suburban soccer family style grocery store would not fit in the core..but a smartly designed full service urban grocery concept would..and that’s what we’re talking about for the 68102 zip code..

Hamburger Helper notwithstanding ..,

Ciao..LiO…Peace

As some one who has lived in the core for most of my time in Omaha, I think this is fair.

I want some actual, semi-predictable grocer options. I don't need or want a Hy-Vee with clothing and pans, but just fresh produce, meats, and basic dry-goods.

I'd actually be even happier if we just got a year round farmers market type place, with multiple local vendors under one roof.

Real shame that never materialized.

I really like the idea of an urban themed, full service Whole Foods type store..I think that’s the concept which will ultimately materialize..

As I’ve stated, whomever decides to take the plunge, will be glad they did by 2030…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Cermak]

If you live in downtown Omaha to get in your car and drive to the Bakers at Saddlecreek and Leavenworth or the HyVee at 50th and Center your talking maybe a 10–15 minute drive. I just don’t see a full service large grocery store in downtown Omaha anytime soon. Plus the grocery store at Midtown crossing is another option for downtown residents Although it’s slightly more expensive.

[Athomsfere]

If you live in downtown Omaha to get in your car and drive to the Bakers at Saddlecreek and Leavenworth or the HyVee at 50th and Center your talking maybe a 10–15 minute drive. I just don’t see a full service large grocery store in downtown Omaha anytime soon. Plus the grocery store at Midtown crossing is another option for downtown residents Although it’s slightly more expensive.

I dislike Kroger, so that isn't an option. (Mostly for their fuel points scammage).

But yes, the Hy-Vee on Center is like 8 minutes for me from downtown, but they tend to have supply issues.

Wohlner's is Amazing, but has very limited selection for daily items like produce.

And ideally, with an urban store: Us downtown resident's don't need to drive. I've actually found myself loving the DGX for random little things. It's walkable, and carries just enough that I can grab a few items to last until the weekend to drive out to 78th and Cass for Hy-Vee and the Asian Market.

[ita]

And ideally, with an urban store: Us downtown resident's don't need to drive. I've actually found myself loving the DGX for random little things. It's walkable, and carries just enough that I can grab a few items to last until the weekend to drive out to 78th and Cass for Hy-Vee and the Asian Market.

This is the key aspect of a downtown grocer, it's to help create a walkable (and arguably, more livable) downtown. That includes being able to get to it either by bike or pubic transit easily. I would hope that if there are really plans for a streetcar or urban circulator, the grocer is somewhere along that route.

[Athomsfere]

And ideally, with an urban store: Us downtown resident's don't need to drive. I've actually found myself loving the DGX for random little things. It's walkable, and carries just enough that I can grab a few items to last until the weekend to drive out to 78th and Cass for Hy-Vee and the Asian Market.

This is the key aspect of a downtown grocer, it's to help create a walkable (and arguably, more livable) downtown. That includes being able to get to it either by bike or pubic transit easily. I would hope that if there are really plans for a streetcar or urban circulator, the grocer is somewhere along that route.

Agreed, if we really nailed a coulple of things to make this possible life downtown would be much better.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Again, a full service grocery store downtown is inevitable..The population growth numbers dictate it and there will be no slowing down of this.. Retail moves where people move..

I laugh a bit when I hear people doubt it will happen.. Reality of Numbers tend to quell the doubt …

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Athomsfere]

Again, a full service grocery store downtown is inevitable..The population growth numbers dictate it and there will be no slowing down of this.. Retail moves where people move..

I laugh a bit when I hear people doubt it will happen.. Reality of Numbers tend to quell the doubt …

Ciao..LiO…Peace

I believe it, and I hope you are more right than not.

I just also really hope it's sooner rather than later.

[Greg S]

Again, a full service grocery store downtown is inevitable..The population growth numbers dictate it and there will be no slowing down of this.. Retail moves where people move..

I laugh a bit when I hear people doubt it will happen.. Reality of Numbers tend to quell the doubt …

Ciao..LiO…Peace

I wonder what kind of population do the grocery stores look at in order to building. 10k, 20k? I am sure they have metrics they use when deciding to open a store.

Greg

[Louie]

This article from 2015 mentions a 'conventional wisdom' number of 20-25k: https://nextcity.org/daily/entry/family ... -cleveland

[Athomsfere]

This article from 2015 mentions a 'conventional wisdom' number of 20-25k: https://nextcity.org/daily/entry/family ... -cleveland

So... The perfect use for the Library building would be a grocery store!

[jheard15]

As a small business owner, I used to think I had a unique talent of knowing what businesses would be successful and where. The biggest obstacle to making a business successful isn't attracting customers, it's attracting and retaining quality employees. You can't just fill up a store, turn on the lights and open the doors.

The population, rent, parking, accessibility, logistics, supply/distribution, are all very important. I'd love to see a Whole Foods downtown. I'm guessing you'd need a minimum of 75-100 employees plus 12-15 management level people. To me, that is the biggest obstacle every business faces today.

I think a downtown grocery store would be an ideal candidate for any and all types of TIF/tax breaks the city has to offer. heck, a property owner trying to fill up 7-10 stories worth of condos could almost give them free rent for the first couple years on a ground floor.

[BN1]

I just saw the downtown Des Moines Hy-vee is temporarily closing to undergo some kind of transformation to a health store. It's been open for less than 5 years, so I guess it wasn't going well. Sounds like lack of grocery sales and workforce challenges.

https://www.kcci.com/article/downtown-h ... t/37600901

[Garrett]

I just saw the downtown Des Moines Hy-vee is temporarily closing to undergo some kind of transformation to a health store. It's been open for less than 5 years, so I guess it wasn't going well. Sounds like lack of grocery sales and workforce challenges.

https://www.kcci.com/article/downtown-h ... t/37600901

Not a health store, a HealthMarket. Basically it’s turning into an all organic market, with more produce and meats. The Des Moines Register goes into better detail, and it’s not even closing during the transition.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story ... 340498002/

[ita]

I just saw the downtown Des Moines Hy-vee is temporarily closing to undergo some kind of transformation to a health store. It's been open for less than 5 years, so I guess it wasn't going well. Sounds like lack of grocery sales and workforce challenges.

https://www.kcci.com/article/downtown-h ... t/37600901

Not a health store, a HealthMarket. Basically it’s turning into an all organic market, with more produce and meats. The Des Moines Register goes into better detail, and it’s not even closing during the transition.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story ... 340498002/

Maybe more evidence that something like Whole Foods would work better downtown. Would Trader Joes be too niche/small for downtown?

[Athomsfere]

I just saw the downtown Des Moines Hy-vee is temporarily closing to undergo some kind of transformation to a health store. It's been open for less than 5 years, so I guess it wasn't going well. Sounds like lack of grocery sales and workforce challenges.

https://www.kcci.com/article/downtown-h ... t/37600901

Not a health store, a HealthMarket. Basically it’s turning into an all organic market, with more produce and meats. The Des Moines Register goes into better detail, and it’s not even closing during the transition.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story ... 340498002/

Maybe more evidence that something like Whole Foods would work better downtown. Would Trader Joes be too niche/small for downtown?

For me, Trader Joe's is a weird mix of Costco and Wohlner's. So yes, it's too niche for my needs. I can't speak for everyone downtown of course.

[jheard15]

Back to the core population topic, I'm not sure what they consider core, but most, if not all of the condos down there are $500k plus, and that's without the HOA fees which are generally $300ish/mo. What would really get this thing going would be several hundred apartments in the $800-1200/mo range. Many of the folks living down there are retired or own a condo as a second home. I know a few farmers that have condos they use mostly on the weekends.

[Garrett]

I just saw the downtown Des Moines Hy-vee is temporarily closing to undergo some kind of transformation to a health store. It's been open for less than 5 years, so I guess it wasn't going well. Sounds like lack of grocery sales and workforce challenges.

https://www.kcci.com/article/downtown-h ... t/37600901

Not a health store, a HealthMarket. Basically it’s turning into an all organic market, with more produce and meats. The Des Moines Register goes into better detail, and it’s not even closing during the transition.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story ... 340498002/

Maybe more evidence that something like Whole Foods would work better downtown. Would Trader Joes be too niche/small for downtown?

Trader Joe's is too heavy on packaged/premade stuff and less on staples in my opinion. Like I'd want a downtown grocer with a meat/seafood counter, not a shelf with pre packaged/frozen stuff.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Back to the core population topic, I'm not sure what they consider core,

When we’re talking about the downtown portion of Omaha’s core, we’re talking about the 68102 downtown central business district zip code.. per the 2020 census, the population of this zip code is 7000, probably more now, and likely nearing 10,000 within the next 3 years..

The complete traditional core area of Omaha is Cuming St to Leavenworth St north to south and the Riverfront to Saddle Creek Rd east to west…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Cermak]

You have to figure HyVee did everything in their power to make sure the downtown Des Moines store was a success, And it still apparently struggled. Obviously the pandemic didn’t help as fewer downtown workers meant less business for the store.

[Garrett]

You have to figure HyVee did everything in their power to make sure the downtown Des Moines store was a success, And it still apparently struggled. Obviously the pandemic didn’t help as fewer downtown workers meant less business for the store.

I think part of it is also that Hy Vee’s corporate strategy is to just throw everything possible at the wall with no clear strategy. Market Grille? Apparel stores? Their vision is consistently weird.

[ita]

I thought this was a good conversation point from the OWH article about urban Omaha population growth:

Jeffrey Robb
Steve Jensen, an urban planner and principal with Steven Jensen Consulting, said the urban growth validates a lot of hard work by people behind the scenes over the last 50 years.

Jensen said Omaha had gotten away from its historic character of a city built around walkable neighborhoods and a place people can traverse by transit. At the same time, Omaha shed jobs downtown, essentially in exchange for parking stalls, he said.

He pointed to statistics showing that downtown Omaha had some 48,000 jobs in 1963, with 29,000 parking stalls. More recently, that has flipped to 27,000 jobs and 43,000 parking spots.

Now, as people return to the urban core, Jensen said Omaha needs to start bringing jobs back. One of Omaha’s next steps, he said, is for more buildings to rise in scale, helping Omaha develop a truly urban big-city lifestyle that attracts and retains top talent.

[Jins123]

I thought this was a good conversation point from the OWH article about urban Omaha population growth:

Jeffrey Robb
Steve Jensen, an urban planner and principal with Steven Jensen Consulting, said the urban growth validates a lot of hard work by people behind the scenes over the last 50 years.

Jensen said Omaha had gotten away from its historic character of a city built around walkable neighborhoods and a place people can traverse by transit. At the same time, Omaha shed jobs downtown, essentially in exchange for parking stalls, he said.

He pointed to statistics showing that downtown Omaha had some 48,000 jobs in 1963, with 29,000 parking stalls. More recently, that has flipped to 27,000 jobs and 43,000 parking spots.

Now, as people return to the urban core, Jensen said Omaha needs to start bringing jobs back. One of Omaha’s next steps, he said, is for more buildings to rise in scale, helping Omaha develop a truly urban big-city lifestyle that attracts and retains top talent.

The growth has been great and it’s well documented on here about that growth. It’s just so so SOOOO frustrating to think how much better it could be with better city leadership. With a mayor who actually gave a |expletive| and wasn’t some PTA President bad guy, with a city council that listened to its constituents, but I imagine every city small and large has these same problems. The growth is still great to see.

[Vitruvius]

I thought this was a good conversation point from the OWH article about urban Omaha population growth:

Jeffrey Robb
Steve Jensen, an urban planner and principal with Steven Jensen Consulting, said the urban growth validates a lot of hard work by people behind the scenes over the last 50 years.

Jensen said Omaha had gotten away from its historic character of a city built around walkable neighborhoods and a place people can traverse by transit. At the same time, Omaha shed jobs downtown, essentially in exchange for parking stalls, he said.

He pointed to statistics showing that downtown Omaha had some 48,000 jobs in 1963, with 29,000 parking stalls. More recently, that has flipped to 27,000 jobs and 43,000 parking spots.

Now, as people return to the urban core, Jensen said Omaha needs to start bringing jobs back. One of Omaha’s next steps, he said, is for more buildings to rise in scale, helping Omaha develop a truly urban big-city lifestyle that attracts and retains top talent.

The growth has been great and it’s well documented on here about that growth. It’s just so so SOOOO frustrating to think how much better it could be with better city leadership. With a mayor who actually gave a |expletive| and wasn’t some PTA President bad guy, with a city council that listened to its constituents, but I imagine every city small and large has these same problems. The growth is still great to see.

Only content of that article that reflects reality and provides overriding fact, "Omaha had some 48,000 jobs in 1963, with 29,000 parking stalls. More recently, that has flipped to 27,000 jobs and 43,000 parking spots."

[Omaha Cowboy]

More fact, and reason for optimism moving forward- also from the W-H price:

“Not only that, but the neighborhoods west of 72nd Street and inside the I-680 loop increased by another 7,000 people. That means that the population inside I-680 surged by 20,000 people since 2010.

The main downtown census tract showed a 31% population increase since 2010, and the western edge of downtown was up 60%. Midtown Crossing and the surrounding area rose 21%, Aksarben Village and its surrounding neighborhood 38% and North Omaha’s Seventy Five North and the surrounding Highlander neighborhood 24%.“..

Growth from 2010-2020 shows that Omaha is not simply growing suburban west/southwest/northwest exclusively any more. This urban growth infill shows areas city areas east of 72nd street are now (finally) experiencing healthy growth- after decades of decline..and all signs show this trend will continue moving forward..

The Omaha metropolitan area finally looks to be growing the right way…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Athomsfere]

I thought this was a good conversation point from the OWH article about urban Omaha population growth:

Jeffrey Robb
Steve Jensen, an urban planner and principal with Steven Jensen Consulting, said the urban growth validates a lot of hard work by people behind the scenes over the last 50 years.

Jensen said Omaha had gotten away from its historic character of a city built around walkable neighborhoods and a place people can traverse by transit. At the same time, Omaha shed jobs downtown, essentially in exchange for parking stalls, he said.

He pointed to statistics showing that downtown Omaha had some 48,000 jobs in 1963, with 29,000 parking stalls. More recently, that has flipped to 27,000 jobs and 43,000 parking spots.

Now, as people return to the urban core, Jensen said Omaha needs to start bringing jobs back. One of Omaha’s next steps, he said, is for more buildings to rise in scale, helping Omaha develop a truly urban big-city lifestyle that attracts and retains top talent.

I am just happy whenever someone who works in and around Omaha's planning actually goes public with where they see Omaha going, and it's positive like this. Positive as in: Trying to fix where Omaha went so wrong.

[ita]

I am just happy whenever someone who works in and around Omaha's planning actually goes public with where they see Omaha going, and it's positive like this. Positive as in: Trying to fix where Omaha went so wrong.

Definitely. Current trends in urban infill is a good sign for the City and I hope it accelerates in the 2020's. It's a good sign that the infill is occurring everywhere within the I-680/80 loop; Downtown, Midtown, Park Avenue, Dundee, Benson, Blackstone, Crossroads, North Omaha, all those areas have seen investment and infill projects or have projects currently under construction or planned for the near future. I would definitely like to see South Omaha get some more love (and investment) from private developers, even though a lot of it is technically outside of the loop, but I think it's only a matter of time.

[Athomsfere]

I am just happy whenever someone who works in and around Omaha's planning actually goes public with where they see Omaha going, and it's positive like this. Positive as in: Trying to fix where Omaha went so wrong.

Definitely. Current trends in urban infill is a good sign for the City and I hope it accelerates in the 2020's. It's a good sign that the infill is occurring everywhere within the I-680/80 loop; Downtown, Midtown, Park Avenue, Dundee, Benson, Blackstone, Crossroads, North Omaha, all those areas have seen investment and infill projects or have projects currently under construction or planned for the near future. I would definitely like to see South Omaha get some more love (and investment) from private developers, even though a lot of it is technically outside of the loop, but I think it's only a matter of time.

I agree. Same with North O, and really anywhere not right off of Dodge. I'd love to see Omaha fill in some density North and South of the Dodge corridor so that we can see some healthier commute patterns than everyone taking Dodge and / or the Ix80 routes. A light rail system that runs 75, and Dodge would be a dream come true.

[thenewguy]

while looking for something else, I came across this thread from a couple years ago. When I looked up how many people live downtown now, I was suprised to see the numbers. 11,570, which is 65% growth if I'm reading it right.



full link to where I found it:

https://www.point2homes.com/US/Neighbor ... phics.html

[skip]

That is great to see! I'm really hoping to see more residential projects be announced for downtown. We still need more liveliness downtown. Yes, on the weekends, the old market is poppin, but the rest of the week, it is usually pretty quiet on the streets of downtown outside of the lunch rush from the corporate offices.

[skinzfan23]

Would love to continue to see that number rise, with all the new parks, venues, and the streetcar going in. Hopefully the residential development is close behind.

[thenewguy]

Would love to continue to see that number rise, with all the new parks, venues, and the streetcar going in. Hopefully the residential development is close behind.

it's gotta be ready to blow, I'd think. If it has grown that much in a few years, the potential exists for more. As a side note, I just read an article discussing KC's downtown population, and they mentioned 20 years ago it was in the 7-8k range, whereas the population (as of 2020 census) was nearly 28k. They said a lot can be attributed to the streetcar line and other amenities becoming available. Shopping was one thing people mentioned as still a bit underserved. If Omaha can erect a condo/apartment/hotel with a target-style retailer, it'd do wonders to address a need that will surely be there later once the street car is finished

[Garrett]

Would love to continue to see that number rise, with all the new parks, venues, and the streetcar going in. Hopefully the residential development is close behind.

it's gotta be ready to blow, I'd think. If it has grown that much in a few years, the potential exists for more. As a side note, I just read an article discussing KC's downtown population, and they mentioned 20 years ago it was in the 7-8k range, whereas the population (as of 2020 census) was nearly 28k. They said a lot can be attributed to the streetcar line and other amenities becoming available. Shopping was one thing people mentioned as still a bit underserved. If Omaha can erect a condo/apartment/hotel with a target-style retailer, it'd do wonders to address a need that will surely be there later once the street car is finished

Really I think the only thing holding a big project coming out now is interest rates. Someone posted the projections for rates in the years ahead in another thread and I'd expect to see quite a bit starting up around then, just have to wait a bit.

[skinzfan23]

I agree, interest rates are a huge impediment right now. If those were lower, I bet we would be seeing a lot more announcements right now.

[CBJason]

Would love to continue to see that number rise, with all the new parks, venues, and the streetcar going in. Hopefully the residential development is close behind.

it's gotta be ready to blow, I'd think. If it has grown that much in a few years, the potential exists for more. As a side note, I just read an article discussing KC's downtown population, and they mentioned 20 years ago it was in the 7-8k range, whereas the population (as of 2020 census) was nearly 28k. They said a lot can be attributed to the streetcar line and other amenities becoming available. Shopping was one thing people mentioned as still a bit underserved. If Omaha can erect a condo/apartment/hotel with a target-style retailer, it'd do wonders to address a need that will surely be there later once the street car is finished

Really I think the only thing holding a big project coming out now is interest rates. Someone posted the projections for rates in the years ahead in another thread and I'd expect to see quite a bit starting up around then, just have to wait a bit.

I must have missed that, where can I find that?

[Dundeemaha]

The September estimates were a bit higher than June. Note this is not the rate that developers are getting on their loans but it is indicative of the trends rates are under going at large.

Fed officials expect rates to sit at a median of 5.6% by year's end, the same as its projection of 5.6% in June's forecast,
5.1% by the end of 2024 versus 4.6% in June and
3.9% by the end of 2025 from 3.1% in June

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/ ... e1a36a6083

[ita]

The September estimates were a bit higher than June. Note this is not the rate that developers are getting on their loans but it is indicative of the trends rates are under going at large.

Fed officials expect rates to sit at a median of 5.6% by year's end, the same as its projection of 5.6% in June's forecast,
5.1% by the end of 2024 versus 4.6% in June and
3.9% by the end of 2025 from 3.1% in June

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/ ... e1a36a6083

Even a percent or two decrease in rates would make a big difference in attitudes of developers and make the numbers work out for lenders, well as long as construction costs, labor and materials, stay steady.

[Stargazer]

For perspective, interest rate on my first home mortgage was 11.5% in 1990. Of course it was also for an 1800sq ft trilevel in Millard for only $78k as well (which Zillow shows at $300k today)

[almighty_tuna]

Yep, even Ray Stanz mortgaged at 19% in 1984.