2023 Weather Thread

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Mon Dec 11, 2023 4:35 am

Well upset. Any kind of moisture looks highly unlikely before Christmas. Also pretty mild temperatures. I'm not really opposed to the mild temps, just not what I expect. What we really need is moisture. I truly can't believe how far we are behind. I gave up keeping track like a year ago because there was never good news, and now on the year we're almost 8" behind, per KETV.

Cermak · Post by **Cermak** » Mon Dec 11, 2023 9:18 am

We are stuck in this mild dry pattern. Upper 30’s and 40’s temps for at least the next 10 days out. I also don’t mind the temperatures but it’s just bone dry out. The last measurable precip I recall was the Saturday after Thanksgiving when we got maybe a half inch of snow. And minor flurries this past Saturday which amounted to nothing.

Post by **nebugeater** » Mon Dec 11, 2023 1:29 pm

On Saturday I saw a center pivot running on a sod for what likely will be a spring use. It was a pivot covering about (guess) 60 acres.

Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Wed Dec 13, 2023 11:15 pm

Witness the Spectacular Geminid Meteor Shower Dec. 13-14

The best meteor shower of the year, the Geminids, will rain down the night sky on Dec. 13-14, boasting more than 100 meteors per hour.

Cermak · Post by **Cermak** » Thu Dec 14, 2023 3:51 pm

Another nice day , should be about 50 today. Pretty good for mid-December in Omaha. Starting to wonder how long this mild stretch is going to last and will we pay for it in January and Feb.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Thu Dec 14, 2023 4:14 pm

I took a peak at the extended forecast at least through December 28th, and it looks like most days the next 2 weeks will be highs in the upper 40’s to low 50’s..and pretty dry. Doesn’t look very good at all for a “White Christmas” in the Omaha area..

I’m really enjoying this weather pattern though, as it’s great weather to get outside and get some exercise in during the afternoons…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Thu Dec 14, 2023 4:19 pm

Cermak wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2023 3:51 pm Another nice day , should be about 50 today. Pretty good for mid-December in Omaha. Starting to wonder how long this mild stretch is going to last and will we pay for it in January and Feb.

It seems to always work that way doesn't it? FWIW, this past Sunday's 14 day forecast showed practically no chance of precipitation (outside of a slight chance tonight/tomorrow) and a continuation of mild temps. Borrrrrring.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Thu Dec 14, 2023 5:30 pm

Wow, well Jaret Lansford just painted a much more liberal picture of the rain between tonight and Saturday morning vs what the NWS has said. He's saying we might get about .5" and maybe a little snow on the back end as it moves out early Saturday morning. With how moderate it's been lately, I definitely err on the more conservative side. I'll believe it when I see it, but a half inch of rain would be wonderful.

almighty_tuna · Post by **almighty_tuna** » Thu Dec 14, 2023 5:55 pm

I've always wanted to camp in a snow storm. Still waiting for the right opportunity, hopefully it comes this winter.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Thu Dec 14, 2023 9:25 pm

Based on the latest runs of the HRRR, it's showing about .7" of rain the the local area (though a narrow band of totals that high). A half inch seems more plausible all things considered though...

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Fri Dec 15, 2023 12:20 am

Still looks like it just might be too dry here for much rain but we’ll see..

Cermak · Post by **Cermak** » Fri Dec 15, 2023 7:52 pm

It’s been pretty much a steady drizzle since this morning, not sure if it’s amounted to much but maybe it helps a little.

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Fri Dec 15, 2023 8:31 pm

Already at .3” in Bellevue so far

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Fri Dec 15, 2023 9:28 pm

For what its worth (which isn't much this far out), the 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF have started to pick up on a potential winter storm around December 25th. Chances are, it either won't happen at all, it wont' happen here, or it'll be too warm and end up as rain but usually if both models are picking up on things, odds increase at least some that a storm system will at least occur in that time frame somewhere not far from here.

Guess we will see.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Thu Dec 21, 2023 1:25 pm

Nothing says Christmas like thunderstorms - right??

Pretty decent chance we will hear some rumbles of thunder in our area on Christmas Eve (probably in the morning with maybe another round of redevelopment in the afternoon but timing/specifics are unknown yet).

Some much needed precip though over the next several days including at least some chance tonight (albeit not a huge chance tonight currently with most of it probably passing to our south). Right now around 3" of precip being depicted total over the next week or so though if things play out as currently depicted.

Additional rain with the potential thunderstorms are depicted Saturday overnight into Christmas Eve in much of eastern NE. Any place that sees thunder could have some heavier rain - otherwise probably a steady rain for most. It's worth mentioning that dewpoints are depicted to be in the mid-50s on Sunday so a few stronger storms would even be possible IF that actually happens - including maybe a few hail reports (odds are low but don't be shocked anyway) - especially if any areas can clear off even for a little bit before redevelopment occurs.

Then the low is depicted to stall out/get cut off basically right on top of our area as it quickly strengthens and negatively tilts. If this happens, a relatively significant snow storm would be possible in parts of central/western NE early next week as well as a risk of storms possibly in far eastern NE and IA (depending on exactly where the low ends up).

Most of what I'm referring to is based on the 00z ECMWF. Like normal things can quickly change - especially once short range models start picking up on things for Sunday/into next week.

Anyhow, some interesting weather to keep an eye on in the coming days.

damonhynes · Post by **damonhynes** » Thu Dec 21, 2023 3:37 pm

https://www.weather.gov/gid/Christmas2016Tornadoes

Eastern Nebr was in a SVR Watch that day, there was more than a little lightning/thunder that morning in the Omaha metro. Good stuff.

Cermak · Post by **Cermak** » Thu Dec 21, 2023 4:06 pm

Definitely one of the mildest Decembers I can recall , although the past few years December has been mild. Absolutely zero snow so far this month.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Thu Dec 21, 2023 4:16 pm

I would like that. If not a white Christmas, I'll take something interesting. We've had a light year as far as thunder goes, so some to wrap up the year would be nice.

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Thu Dec 21, 2023 4:19 pm

Ah yes the Irving Berlin classic 'Wet Christmas'

almighty_tuna · Post by **almighty_tuna** » Thu Dec 21, 2023 4:43 pm

Louie wrote: Thu Dec 21, 2023 4:19 pm Ah yes the Irving Berlin classic 'Wet Christmas'

There absolutely is a mom joke in there.

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Thu Dec 21, 2023 5:09 pm

almighty_tuna wrote: Thu Dec 21, 2023 4:43 pm
Louie wrote: Thu Dec 21, 2023 4:19 pm Ah yes the Irving Berlin classic 'Wet Christmas'
There absolutely is a mom joke in there.

Theres also some dreaming in the song haha

iamjacobm · Post by **iamjacobm** » Fri Dec 22, 2023 3:35 pm

I’ll let the weather experts correct me, but my weather app looks like Christmas Day is going to be much colder than Christmas Eve and it’s calling for snow.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Fri Dec 22, 2023 4:38 pm

iamjacobm wrote: Fri Dec 22, 2023 3:35 pm I’ll let the weather experts correct me, but my weather app looks like Christmas Day is going to be much colder than Christmas Eve and it’s calling for snow.

Yep, odds have started to increase for some snow on Christmas day with the passage of the low and front to our east and then a second low developing to our south and pushing off to our east. Looks like there "might" be some cold enough air for snowflakes on Christmas day now anyway. It's a complicated forecast though since the low gets cut off and just kinda wanders around so if it shift east, probably snow. If it doesn't then it might remain warm enough for rain.

Post by **Brad** » Fri Dec 22, 2023 4:56 pm

stormchaser wrote: Fri Dec 22, 2023 4:38 pm
iamjacobm wrote: Fri Dec 22, 2023 3:35 pm I’ll let the weather experts correct me, but my weather app looks like Christmas Day is going to be much colder than Christmas Eve and it’s calling for snow.
Yep, odds have started to increase for some snow on Christmas day with the passage of the low and front to our east and then a second low developing to our south and pushing off to our east. Looks like there "might" be some cold enough air for snowflakes on Christmas day now anyway. It's a complicated forecast though since the low gets cut off and just kinda wanders around so if it shift east, probably snow. If it doesn't then it might remain warm enough for rain.

You seeing some of these models showing Ice too?

xmas-ice.JPG

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Fri Dec 22, 2023 9:19 pm

Brad wrote: Fri Dec 22, 2023 4:56 pm
stormchaser wrote: Fri Dec 22, 2023 4:38 pm
iamjacobm wrote: Fri Dec 22, 2023 3:35 pm I’ll let the weather experts correct me, but my weather app looks like Christmas Day is going to be much colder than Christmas Eve and it’s calling for snow.
Yep, odds have started to increase for some snow on Christmas day with the passage of the low and front to our east and then a second low developing to our south and pushing off to our east. Looks like there "might" be some cold enough air for snowflakes on Christmas day now anyway. It's a complicated forecast though since the low gets cut off and just kinda wanders around so if it shift east, probably snow. If it doesn't then it might remain warm enough for rain.
You seeing some of these models showing Ice too?

xmas-ice.JPG

Yep, should be interesting to see how things are depicted on short range models as we get closer (and then eventually how things actually play out). Ice/mix certainly is a possibility in some areas though.

As an example of why this second storm (in particular) is challenging is since it's cut off from the jet stream (when it negatively titls and then "occludes" - aka when dry air wraps around the low which is what kills off the precip), it just kinda wanders around and probably will move from southeast to northwest/west/southwest for a while right in our area before it gets picked up by the jet again (as shown in the animation below) - making the forecast extremely challenging.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Sat Dec 23, 2023 9:59 pm

A winter storm watch has been issued for much of eastern NE for Sunday night through Tuesday including Omaha. Up to 6 inches are possible with wind in our area with over a foot possible further west.

We will probably end up with less than 6 here locally (maybe significantly less) but depends on what that low pressure does. The bigger issue locally will be the wind while the snow is falling causing visibility issues - especially in northeast NE - unless the track of the low shifts east, then Omaha will get hit harder.

Details here:
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwa ... rm%20watch

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Sat Dec 23, 2023 10:06 pm

Area in the winter storm watch:

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Sat Dec 23, 2023 10:37 pm

I have to be on the road Christmas morning, is that looking more inadvisable as we get closer?

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Sat Dec 23, 2023 10:44 pm

Louie wrote: Sat Dec 23, 2023 10:37 pm I have to be on the road Christmas morning, is that looking more inadvisable as we get closer?

Depends which way you’re heading?

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Sat Dec 23, 2023 10:47 pm

stormchaser wrote: Sat Dec 23, 2023 10:44 pm
Louie wrote: Sat Dec 23, 2023 10:37 pm I have to be on the road Christmas morning, is that looking more inadvisable as we get closer?
Depends which way you’re heading?

North from central Cass County back into the city. I will note, I tend to stay off the roads if its not necessary when it comes to inclement weather. More cars on bad weather days just means more insurance claims ha.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Sat Dec 23, 2023 10:52 pm

Louie wrote: Sat Dec 23, 2023 10:47 pm
stormchaser wrote: Sat Dec 23, 2023 10:44 pm
Louie wrote: Sat Dec 23, 2023 10:37 pm I have to be on the road Christmas morning, is that looking more inadvisable as we get closer?
Depends which way you’re heading?
North from central Cass County back into the city. I will note, I tend to stay off the roads if its not necessary when it comes to inclement weather. More cars on bad weather days just means more insurance claims ha.

Gotcha, it shouldn’t be too bad at that time yet. Maybe rain or snow in the area but temps will be hovering around or above freezing so if it’s snow, it’ll just be melting as it falls. Later on Monday evening/night and Tuesday will be the main impact timeframe in our area.

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Sat Dec 23, 2023 11:39 pm

stormchaser wrote: Sat Dec 23, 2023 10:52 pm
Louie wrote: Sat Dec 23, 2023 10:47 pm
stormchaser wrote: Sat Dec 23, 2023 10:44 pm
Louie wrote: Sat Dec 23, 2023 10:37 pm I have to be on the road Christmas morning, is that looking more inadvisable as we get closer?
Depends which way you’re heading?
North from central Cass County back into the city. I will note, I tend to stay off the roads if its not necessary when it comes to inclement weather. More cars on bad weather days just means more insurance claims ha.
Gotcha, it shouldn’t be too bad at that time yet. Maybe rain or snow in the area but temps will be hovering around or above freezing so if it’s snow, it’ll just be melting as it falls. Later on Monday evening/night and Tuesday will be the main impact timeframe in our area.

Ok, sounds like we’ll take the chance!

Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Sun Dec 24, 2023 12:58 am

Increased Snow Potential for Christmas Day!

Rain and dry air will be the limiting factor for snow potential in eastern Nebraska late Sunday into Monday and Tuesday, but some parts of Nebraska may get walloped!

Cermak · Post by **Cermak** » Sun Dec 24, 2023 1:09 am

Winter Storm Watch !
Starting late tomorrow evening and into Monday and possibly Tuesday. Payback time for a very mild December and fall

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Sun Dec 24, 2023 2:21 am

**This info is based on one single run of one single model. Things can quickly change and trends need to be watched closely.

Unfortunately things are now quickly trending toward potentially a much more impactful/potential blizzard in the local area based on short range models - specifically the 00z HRRR.

A significant amount of snow is being depicted locally. I’m not saying this is 100% what to expect “yet”, but this is a concerning trend to watch closely and if it continues, watch out.

Simulated radar loop for the next 48 hours based on the 00z HRRR:

Depicted 48 hour snow totals (plenty of uncertainty yet though so things can quickly change):

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Sun Dec 24, 2023 1:05 pm

The HRRR is trending back west - which is good. It means the above scenario that I posted about last night is increasingly unlikely. Regardless, several inches of snow in Omaha still looks possible (I'm thinking somewhere around 3"-4" of snow locally with heavier stuff in Lincoln/Fremont) with wind.

48 hour snow totals based on the 06z HRRR:

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Sun Dec 24, 2023 2:26 pm

Cermak wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2023 1:09 am Winter Storm Watch !
Starting late tomorrow evening and into Monday and possibly Tuesday. Payback time for a very mild December and fall

Payback time indeed.

Reading the NWS forecast makes the next few days sound pretty miserable... as it should be for Christmas. It just doesn't feel like Christmas if it isn't time to hunker down, and that'll be just what we get tomorrow. Just in time.

It'll feel great to finally have a reason to fire up the greenhouse and sit next to the stove, listening to ice droplets hitting the roof, hearing the wind howling while I'm sitting comfy sipping hot cocoa. I live for it.

NWS calling for almost 3". Not awesome, but it'd be fairly decent considering what we've had so far.

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Sun Dec 24, 2023 5:02 pm

Busguy2010 wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2023 2:26 pm It'll feel great to finally have a reason to fire up the greenhouse and sit next to the stove, listening to ice droplets hitting the roof, hearing the wind howling while I'm sitting comfy sipping hot cocoa. I live for it.

That sounds so nice

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Sun Dec 24, 2023 5:36 pm

A thin line of thunderstorms is trying to develop along the cold front as it’s moving into our area from the west. Don’t be surprised to hear a few rumbles of thunder early this afternoon if the continuing strengthening.

Radar as of 11:30 AM:

Post by **Brad** » Sun Dec 24, 2023 6:03 pm

stormchaser wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2023 5:36 pm A thin line of thunderstorms is trying to develop along the cold front as it’s moving into our area from the west.

Quite the temperature gradient behind that front too. 55 in Omaha at noon, already down to 28 in Valentine.