2024 Weather Thread

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Fri Jan 05, 2024 7:20 pm

Pretty nice ambiance outside with the very light snow rn.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Sat Jan 06, 2024 8:45 am

Still no big changes to my current forecast that I posted a map for yesterday. Still thinking the Omaha area will be in the 4"-8" range for snow totals with wind/blowing snow Tuesday morning (especially).

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Sat Jan 06, 2024 10:57 am

Probably will change, but the NWS now has its first total for Eppley at 3.5". I'd be a little disappointed if it ends up that small, but at the same time, at least everyone is pretty much expecting a semi-decent snowfall.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Sat Jan 06, 2024 12:32 pm

Busguy2010 wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 10:57 am Probably will change, but the NWS now has its first total for Eppley at 3.5". I'd be a little disappointed if it ends up that small, but at the same time, at least everyone is pretty much expecting a semi-decent snowfall.

Yeah, if I change anything with what I’m expecting for Omaha, it would to decrease totals some. It’s looking like more of a 3-6” type event for Omaha itself. Tough to know for sure yet though. Once short range models start picking up on it, then we should have a better idea (hopefully). Wouldn’t shock me if we get changed to a winter weather advisory (as opposed to upgraded to a warning) as we get closer if model trends continue.

Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Sat Jan 06, 2024 2:09 pm

Snow is Headed Our Way!

The weather models are coming into agreement, some more than others. Let's take a look at what they are saying and what I have for my own forecast!

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Sat Jan 06, 2024 2:39 pm

The 18z HRRR short range model is in and it shows snow starting Monday morning around 8-9 AM in Omaha and quickly becoming heavy. It’s also trending higher with snow totals though the full storm isn’t in range yet. I’m not sold yet but a trend that’ll need to be watched.

Cermak · Post by **Cermak** » Sat Jan 06, 2024 3:48 pm

stormchaser wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 2:39 pm The 18z HRRR short range model is in and it shows snow starting Monday morning around 8-9 AM in Omaha and quickly becoming heavy. It’s also trending higher with snow totals though the full storm isn’t in range yet. I’m not sold yet but a trend that’ll need to be watched.

Bring on the Snow ! We need the moisture.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Sat Jan 06, 2024 8:04 pm

The 00z HRRR is in and it’s continuing the trend of heavier snowfall in the area - especially just barely west of Omaha. These totals don’t represent the full extent of the storm as moderate/heavy snow is still ongoing as far out as you can see.

However, I’m sure these are overdone some too with the temp depicted around 34 so heavy/wet snow which will melt and compress itself down as it falls.

Animation of the precip starting at 3:00 AM Monday morning and ending at 6:00 PM. The snow starts in Omaha around 8:00 AM - 9:00 AM.

Post by **Brad** » Sat Jan 06, 2024 8:27 pm

Brought work home with me and ordered some replacement parts for my snow blower. Filled the car with gas and also the snowblower gas….

Moral of the story, it’s gonna miss us! lol

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Sun Jan 07, 2024 12:06 am

Speakin of which. I noticed they have legit heavy duty battery powered snow blowers at Lowe's. I've had an ego mower for several years now and I have nothing but praise for it. I'm thinking of moving on from my old craftsman snow blower that's older than me. I'll probably ride it out for as long as it takes, but I think it's pretty cool there's heavy duty electric snow blowers available.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Sun Jan 07, 2024 6:55 am

A winter storm warning has been issued for all of eastern NE and parts of western IA including the Lincoln/Omaha areas. Expecting 4"-8" of snow with 35-40 MPH wind gusts.

More info:
https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx. ... n=-96.0594

Recent Forecast information from the NWS:

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Sun Jan 07, 2024 8:15 am

Latest snow totals based on the 12z HRRR. These are likely overdone some but things are definitely trending toward heavier snowfall. Wouldn't be surprised to see areas near Lincoln/Omaha approaching or even exceeding a foot of snow. I realize thats higher than what the NWS is showing though. Guess we will see.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Sun Jan 07, 2024 12:44 pm

The NWS trended upward to 5.7". I like where this is headed. The more the merrier!

Post by **BRoss** » Sun Jan 07, 2024 3:42 pm

Looks like it will start as a rain/snow mix. Guess that means pre-treating my driveway would be a waste?

Mr.Nuke · Post by **Mr.Nuke** » Sun Jan 07, 2024 5:09 pm

stormchaser wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 8:15 am Latest snow totals based on the 12z HRRR. These are likely overdone some but things are definitely trending toward heavier snowfall.

It almost certainly is as most of the models don't think this is going to be a 10:1 event, probably something closer to 6:1 to 8:1.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Sun Jan 07, 2024 7:56 pm

Mr.Nuke wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 5:09 pm
stormchaser wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 8:15 am Latest snow totals based on the 12z HRRR. These are likely overdone some but things are definitely trending toward heavier snowfall.
It almost certainly is as most of the models don't think this is going to be a 10:1 event, probably something closer to 6:1 to 8:1.

Yep, I’m still thinking we’ll get around 8-9 in Omaha with 9-12 just to our west including Fremont/Lincoln.

Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Sun Jan 07, 2024 7:59 pm

All of these school closings tomorrow!

Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Sun Jan 07, 2024 9:00 pm

Major winter storm to impact the area into Monday, January 8th, 2024

A potent winter storm is set to bring moderate to heavy snow, strong winds, and much colder conditions to the area through the day on Monday, January 8th.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Mon Jan 08, 2024 7:26 am

Mixed precip is now starting to change to snow across Omaha and will probably remain snow from here on out (once it fully changes over within the next hour or so). Personally I'm still expecting we will get around 8"-9" of snow in Omaha itself with heavier stuff to our west and south. In addition, 45 MPH wind gusts will cause blowing/drifting snow. It'll be interesting if eventually parts of our area are upgraded to a blizzard warning...

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Mon Jan 08, 2024 7:33 am

Also, it's worth mentioning there will be times parts of the area will see 2"+ per hour snowfall rates - probably late this morning and/or early this afternoon in our specific area. Otherwise 1"+ per hour snowfall rates will be common.

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Mon Jan 08, 2024 7:47 am

Mr.Nuke wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 5:09 pm
stormchaser wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 8:15 am Latest snow totals based on the 12z HRRR. These are likely overdone some but things are definitely trending toward heavier snowfall.
It almost certainly is as most of the models don't think this is going to be a 10:1 event, probably something closer to 6:1 to 8:1.

When you say 10:1, 8:1, etc., what is that referring to?

Post by **Brad** » Mon Jan 08, 2024 8:09 am

Louie wrote: Mon Jan 08, 2024 7:47 am When you say 10:1, 8:1, etc., what is that referring to?

10:1 is a ratio meaning 1" of Rain = 10" of snow.

nativeomahan · Post by **nativeomahan** » Mon Jan 08, 2024 8:34 am

Omadome

Post by **BRoss** » Mon Jan 08, 2024 8:38 am

nativeomahan wrote: Mon Jan 08, 2024 8:34 am Omadome

lol I was just going to say the same thing.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Mon Jan 08, 2024 8:54 am

Brad wrote: Mon Jan 08, 2024 8:09 am
Louie wrote: Mon Jan 08, 2024 7:47 am When you say 10:1, 8:1, etc., what is that referring to?
10:1 is a ratio meaning 1" of Rain = 10" of snow.

Amount of water in the snow. 8:1 wetter, heavier, bigger flakes, good for snowballs and snowmen. 10:1 - 20:1 drier, lighter, fluffier, doesn't stick together well.

https://www.weather.gov/arx/why_snowratios

E.g. 6" of snow can have 1" of water, or 10" of snow can have 1" of water. The ratio can be higher.

So say we get 8" today. If it's a 10:1, it would be like a .8" rain event. If it's a 6:1, it'd be like a 1.3" rain event.

1:1 would just be rain, 5:1 might be sleet-like, 8 or 10:1 might be that perfect snow, and 12:1 or 20:1 might be more like that tiny snow we had Saturday.

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Mon Jan 08, 2024 9:20 am

Brad wrote: Mon Jan 08, 2024 8:09 am
Louie wrote: Mon Jan 08, 2024 7:47 am When you say 10:1, 8:1, etc., what is that referring to?
10:1 is a ratio meaning 1" of Rain = 10" of snow.

AHhhhhhhhh, that makes sense. And the wetter/warmer the snow, the more it compacts and the less inches of snow total out. Got it.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Mon Jan 08, 2024 10:02 am

First, the NWS upped their number to 8.1". Whether it ends up that hefty or not, the trend upward is exciting to me.

Second, I realized I accidentally set up an experiment for myself. I left an empty 5 gallon bucket in my garden yesterday. I'll find a way to make that an accurate experiment to find out our snowfall ratio for this storm.

It has just begun to snow in my neck of the woods and it looks decent.

Post by **BRoss** » Mon Jan 08, 2024 10:03 am

Looks like the dome is starting to fail and snow is beginning. It is 34⁰ still though.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Mon Jan 08, 2024 10:14 am

I just took a quick walk around my neighborhood and it’s starting to spit out some flurries. But nothing slick or sticking as of yet. It’s 33 degrees outside currently…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Mon Jan 08, 2024 10:43 am

Its beginning to stick to most surfaces in Dundee.

Cermak · Post by **Cermak** » Mon Jan 08, 2024 11:10 am

Pretty big flakes of snow, moderate snowfall. About 11:10 this morning. SW Omaha not far from I-680. Sticking to the streets.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Mon Jan 08, 2024 11:20 am

Looks like one more band of mixed precip/rain is moving through Omaha currently (the yellow/green areas) and then we will probably remain mostly snow after. Thats when the main accumulations should start.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Mon Jan 08, 2024 11:27 am

Also, around Noon into early this afternoon is when we should see the 2"+ per hour snowfall rates so things are probably going to go down hill here shortly...

ChadJK · Post by **ChadJK** » Mon Jan 08, 2024 12:01 pm

You see those forecasted Sunday temps? Brrr...

On the plus side, if I go out to do stuff Sunday there shouldn't be too many other people out and that brings me joy.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Mon Jan 08, 2024 1:12 pm

ChadJK wrote: Mon Jan 08, 2024 12:01 pm You see those forecasted Sunday temps? Brrr...

On the plus side, if I go out to do stuff Sunday there shouldn't be too many other people out and that brings me joy.

Yep, should be fun

.

Omaha right now is right on a dividing line (as expected really) for the snow today. On the west side of Omaha, there are places that probably have around an inch of snow so far. On the east side and/or in Council Bluffs, there is hardly any accumulation at all.

That said, I can probably start decreasing what I'm thinking for totals locally. It's looking like more likely we will be in the 4"-7" range here in Omaha.

Post by **BRoss** » Mon Jan 08, 2024 1:25 pm

stormchaser wrote: Mon Jan 08, 2024 1:12 pm That said, I can probably start decreasing what I'm thinking for totals locally. It's looking like more likely we will be in the 4"-7" range here in Omaha

The fact it's still 33 is probably hurting the accumulation.

That said, I am getting some larger flakes right now.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Mon Jan 08, 2024 1:30 pm

Yeah, until it cools off more it'll struggle to actually accumulate though the heavy snow right now will help some.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Mon Jan 08, 2024 1:35 pm

Really big flakes now, though they dissolve in 30 seconds. It doesn't seem to be coming down at that rate expected. Somethings gotta change soon or this is gonna end up on the much lower end.

nativeomahan · Post by **nativeomahan** » Mon Jan 08, 2024 2:29 pm

stormchaser wrote: Mon Jan 08, 2024 11:27 am Also, around Noon into early this afternoon is when we should see the 2"+ per hour snowfall rates so things are probably going to go down hill here shortly...

One of the joys of spending most of winter in a land where snow is encountered as often as Martian soil and ice is reserved for beverage glasses is missing all of these snowmageddons. I still fret about everyone getting fender benders or stuck in snow drifts, and with the 2” an hour apparently coming down the city should be pretty much burried by the evening “crash hour”. I guess the Omadome has failed?
One thing, my security cam seems broken, as it shows driveways just wet, and mostly a bare grass yards. Obviously it’s contradicting reality at 2:30 pm?

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Mon Jan 08, 2024 2:40 pm

Honestly been pretty lame so far. Snows gotten lighter and there's next to no accumulation yet. Local news said after 3 would be the bulk, but earlier they were saying after noon. The longer it holds off the less it'll be. It's supposed to start moving out in the early AM.