2024 Weather Thread

[Coyote]

A little bit of snow this morning…

[Coyote]

It is still snowing a little this morning…

[Louie]

Eppley reporting more than a quarter inch of precip and we've got maybe a couple hours or so of light precip still.

[Busguy2010]

I'm fairly satisfied with what we got. I was getting nervous seeing the forecast kept going down. So far it looks like we've now had more than a third of an inch of rain and maybe a half inch of snow. A couple times overnight it came down good enough I could hear it in the house. Still it isn't much. But considering how dry it's been, I'll gladly take it.

[stormchaser]

Over 17" of snow reported out in the North Platte, NE area which has prompted parts of I-80 to be closed out in that area.

No thank you.

Source: https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?sid=oax

[Brad]

Over 17" of snow reported out in the North Platte, NE area which has prompted parts of I-80 to be closed out in that area.

They also set a one day record yesterday:

At NWS North Platte, we observed 15.3" of snow for the calendar day March 7th.

Not only was this a daily record but this is also the new all-time record for greatest snowfall in a single day, eclipsing the old record of 13.9" set 01/18/2023. #NEwx

[stormchaser]

They also set a one day record yesterday:

At NWS North Platte, we observed 15.3" of snow for the calendar day March 7th.

Not only was this a daily record but this is also the new all-time record for greatest snowfall in a single day, eclipsing the old record of 13.9" set 01/18/2023. #NEwx

That's pretty crazy!

[Cermak]

Over 17" of snow reported out in the North Platte, NE area which has prompted parts of I-80 to be closed out in that area.

No thank you.

Source: https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?sid=oax

That’s a good amount of snow, it seemed pretty isolated as well. As the amounts dropped off quickly to the east of North Platte.

[Busguy2010]

I see a somewhat decent chance of rain and thunder Wednesday and Thursday. Any intel on that?

[stormchaser]

I see a somewhat decent chance of rain and thunder Wednesday and Thursday. Any intel on that?

Yeah, similar setup to what we just had but this time it "looks like" dewpoints will be higher and consequently a better chance of heavier rain/thunderstorms in parts of the area.

Potential severe weather along and south of NE/KS border too but it's really too far out to know if/where that risk will end up on Wednesday/Wednesday evening. Outside chance there could be a few strong/severe storms in southeast NE as well along a warm front in depicted to be in the area.

Of course take these with a grain of salt though since there is still dry air to overcome (due to the drought) that models typically struggle with until we get closer.

Simulated radar from the 00z ECMWF for Wednesday afternoon into Thursday afternoon:




Depicted dewpoints from the 00z ECMWF for Wednesday afternoon into Thursday afternoon:




Depicted precip totals from the 00z ECMWF for Wednesday afternoon into Thursday afternoon:

[Busguy2010]

It's starting to come into focus for the NWS now. They're saying .57", which would be another fair rainfall two weeks in a row. It's saying something since these things are so hard to come by the past year or two.

[stormchaser]

SPC has a slight risk of severe weather tomorrow south of Omaha (which I mentioned was a possibility a few days ago so not surprised). Definitely not a huge risk - large hail/damaging wind threats mostly (especially towards Beatrice/Falls City).

Tornado threat will probably end up more into the Saint Joseph area (roughly) on south or just south of the NE/KS border where dewpoints will likely be slightly higher.

Latest outlook from the SPC:

[Busguy2010]

Oh that's interesting. Our first threat of the year, no? And our first one in how long?

[stormchaser]

Oh that's interesting. Our first threat of the year, no? And our first one in how long?

Yep - definitely the first one this year...probably since last Fall but couldn't tell you exactly when. Additional severe weather will be possible on Thursday as well just to our east into Iowa (depending on the timing the low pushes through).

Most of the severe weather is depicted to occur after 7 PM (and probably mostly near or after dark - which is a bummer if that happens as it wouldn't be worth trying to chase them probably). Its possible the models are struggling with timing so I'd be paying attention to things anytime after 4 PM.

Here is a simulated radar for tomorrow showing storms developing around 7 PM along a warm front in far southeast NE.

Notice how the general motion of the storm complex is northeast but the individual storms near the bottom edge of the complex move more east/southeast (especially in far southeast NE). This is because they are depicted to be embedded on the warm front in that area.

If dewpoints were higher, the tornado threat would definitely be higher. Either way, these will likely be rotating supercells along the warm front so large hail and at least some tornado threat should be expected.

[Busguy2010]

I would guess our last one was last fall too, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was back on July 4th. I'm sure it stormed since then, but that's the last one I actually know of.

I hope we get some decent thunder and rain out of it. I'm not expecting much more than that, but a nice ambiance would be welcome.

[stormchaser]

I would guess our last one was last fall too, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was back on July 4th. I'm sure it stormed since then, but that's the last one I actually know of.

I hope we get some decent thunder and rain out of it. I'm not expecting much more than that, but a nice ambiance would be welcome.

Unless things change, that should be all we get in Omaha (maybe some isolated small hail but mostly just some rumbles of thunder and rain). Further south, it'll probably be more interesting though...

[Brad]

Latest HRRR showing rain in to the metro around 11p, but rainfall is looking less than a 1/2 inch.

composite-hrrr.JPG

[Busguy2010]

Based on the NWS and WOWT, I'm expecting a half inch +- .10". It's not much, but something is better than nothing.

It could rain like we expect tomorrow the rest of the month straight, and we'd still be in a deficit. I cant exactly attest how far behind we are over the last 3-5 years, but I'd guess we're at least a good 30" behind. I won't be taking the rainy day tomorrow for granted.

[Busguy2010]

Tornado watch just put out for areas around the KS border. The actions not too far away, at least part of the viewing area.

Still holding out hope for more rain than not.

[iamjacobm]

Everyone looking for a good rain should be enjoying this one. No thunder, but had been consistent rain for a while now with a few more sustained hours to go. Wondering if it's going to run past that half inch mark b/c it's been decently heavy downtown at times.

[Cermak]

Everyone looking for a good rain should be enjoying this one. No thunder, but had been consistent rain for a while now with a few more sustained hours to go. Wondering if it's going to run past that half inch mark b/c it's been decently heavy downtown at times.

This should do wonders for the lawns.

[skinzfan23]

I looked at 8 this morning and only had .10" but just looked now and its already over .30". I just put fertilizer down last night....sure the grass is really going to green up now.

[Louie]

I looked at 8 this morning and only had .10" but just looked now and its already over .30". I just put fertilizer down last night....sure the grass is really going to green up now.

Good timing

[BRoss]

I'm at .61" right now.

[Busguy2010]

I've enjoyed this rain. It probably won't help for long, but my allergies have really started to ramp up in the last week or so, and that warm, dry, and windy weather was really not helping.

[skinzfan23]

I was just mentioning that to my wife, once you get some decent rain, it always helps the air quality some and of course seems less dusty as well. Been awhile since we knew this feeling.

[Busguy2010]

I was just mentioning that to my wife, once you get some decent rain, it always helps the air quality some and of course seems less dusty as well. Been awhile since we knew this feeling.

Mine have been markedly bad the past week or so. It makes sense with the weather so much warmer so much earlier, I've also been spending more time out in the garden, plus the warm, dry, windy conditions, along with plants budding early.

I got bit cause every year I'd be starting the preload on fluticasone (Flonase) at the beginning of March, but this oddball year, I really should have started at the beginning of February.

[Cermak]

The rain didn’t amount to a whole bunch. But should help settle the dust a little and hopefully help the grass some. The next week looks dry but some possible precip showing up maybe next weekend. Denver just got hammered with a big snow.

[Brad]

The rain didn’t amount to a whole bunch. But should help settle the dust a little and hopefully help the grass some. The next week looks dry but some possible precip showing up maybe next weekend. Denver just got hammered with a big snow.

My neighborhood got 0.4" and it sure greened up the lawn!

[skinzfan23]

Its crazy how with just a little moisture it greens up so quickly.

[stormchaser]

Several rounds of cold air, rain/thunderstorms (this weekend) and possibly some accumulating snow early next week in parts of the area being depicted on long range models with an active pattern setting up.

Still obviously too far away yet and "most" of the snow will hopefully pass north of us (Minnesota looks like they're going to get hit pretty hard), but I'd be surprised if we don't get at least some accumulating snow yet even here in Omaha. I guess we will see as we get closer though.

For what it's worth, the long range models are depicting 2 to 3 inches worth of rain/liquid equivalent in the area in the next 10 days. IF that happens, that definitely would be a good thing.

[stormchaser]

Obviously take this map with a MASSIVE grain of salt at this point. But these are the snow totals being depicted based on the 12z ECMWF over the next ~10 days.

It's probably off by a fair amount and likely overdone but the point of posting this is to show that accumulating snow in parts of the area is probably a pretty good bet at this point unless things drastically change (which is possible).

[Cermak]

Next week looks like one of the colder weeks we’ve had in a while. Mostly highs in the low to mid 40’s. Wouldn’t be surprised if we end up having a cool spring.

[skinzfan23]

At least according to wowt the second half of next week looks fine, pretty close to normal and low to mid 50’s.

[Busguy2010]

If it turns out that way, I can't say I didn't call it. Dues need to be paid. It can't be dry and above normal all the time.

[Louie]

Dues need to be paid. It can't be dry and above normal all the time.

Why can't it? Not that it's good for our particular environment, but we know things are and have been changing for awhile now.

[Busguy2010]

Dues need to be paid. It can't be dry and above normal all the time.

Why can't it? Not that it's good for our particular environment, but we know things are and have been changing for awhile now.

Like I've alluded to in the past, earth is a fixed reservoir. The water doesn't just disappear. If it's been dry here, the water is falling elsewhere. Like the California floods earlier in the year, or more recently the snowfall in Colorado. The longer it holds off, the more abrupt and pronounced the comeuppance. That's my theory at least. It holds up when you look at our winter, it started so warm and dry, and then boom, we had one of the coldest stretches in our history. And then it was back to warm and dry. If we end up with a cold spring, that would further support that idea. That's what we get with climate change, more of the unexpected.

Like I've always said, I'd much rather know what to expect than have all these goofy timed peaks and valleys. I.e. I'd trade a normal cold winter for not knowing what to expect for spring. If it's cold in the winter, you can pretty much always expect an upward trend during spring. But since it's been so warm, we really don't know what to expect.

[stormchaser]

Thankfully the track of the storm system this weekend/early next week it's removed the chance for snow in Omaha at least - and we "should" get some much needed rain starting overnight tonight and then again this weekend. Even some rumbles of thunder possible.

[almighty_tuna]

Any thoughts on how much rain will actually show up?

[Busguy2010]

Any thoughts on how much rain will actually show up?

Not much at all tonight, maybe a tenth. But starting Saturday night into Tuesday morning, the confidence has remained pretty high. We might get an inch.

Gonna be a bit of a gloomy stretch, but we need it.