2024 Weather Thread

[almighty_tuna]

Sounds like I'll have to break out the fertilizer then.

[Busguy2010]

Sounds like I'll have to break out the fertilizer then.

Would be a great afternoon to do it

There's also a break tomorrow and during the day Saturday, but it'll be colder and windier.

[stormchaser]

Any thoughts on how much rain will actually show up?

Not much at all tonight, maybe a tenth. But starting Saturday night into Tuesday morning, the confidence has remained pretty high. We might get an inch.

Gonna be a bit of a gloomy stretch, but we need it.

Some places will be higher in areas that see thunderstorms tonight - probably to our east though. Otherwise a tenth at most tonight.

The rain this weekend looks more widespread so chances are relatively good we will get an inch of rain and possibly more.

This is from the 12z NAM showing precip totals through Monday evening:

[Busguy2010]

I do recall hearing a rumble of thunder in the middle of the night, and hearing rain coming down pretty heavily for a short time.

[Coyote]

Spring Blizzard!



A lot of snow and a lot of wind will bring with it a blizzard potential Sunday into Monday. Freezing rain and some severe weather will also be possible!

[Coyote]

We are getting some rain here in Aksarben Village, even heard some thunder this morning!

[Cermak]

Lots of gloomy weather lately. But the rain is welcomed. Had a few snow pellets at my house yesterday around noon.

[Busguy2010]

One good way to tell if we've had a decent rain is to look at the trees. One, if the tree is completely saturated, and two, if the lichens on the tree have greened up. Lots of trees in my neighborhood have a decent amount of lichens on them today, but aren't fully saturated. Maybe 50%. It's been a mildly decent rain, but I'm still looking for a lot more out of it.

[skinzfan23]

Got just under 1” in Bellevue. This has to be the most in one storm since last summer.

[Coyote]

With this rain today, I started to see tree’s budding out.

[Busguy2010]

With this rain today, I started to see tree’s budding out.

They started budding out a few weeks ago due to the abnormally warm winter. It was discussed somewhere, but It obviously wouldn't be a surprise is the rain gave them a boost. It's been so darn dry, the plants will probably have a positive reaction to just a spit.

[Busguy2010]

Got just under 1” in Bellevue. This has to be the most in one storm since last summer.

You're always getting way more. Eppley is sitting at just over .5".

[damonhynes]

With this rain today, I started to see tree’s budding out.

They started budding out a few weeks ago due to the abnormally warm winter. It was discussed somewhere, but It obviously wouldn't be a surprise is the rain gave them a boost. It's been so darn dry, the plants will probably have a positive reaction to just a spit.

The seed covers are forming drifts on my sidewalk!

[Busguy2010]

With this rain today, I started to see tree’s budding out.

They started budding out a few weeks ago due to the abnormally warm winter. It was discussed somewhere, but It obviously wouldn't be a surprise is the rain gave them a boost. It's been so darn dry, the plants will probably have a positive reaction to just a spit.

The seed covers are forming drifts on my sidewalk!

They did that to me a week or two ago. It definitely seemed early to me.

[stormchaser]

Tomorrow is looking increasingly interesting based on the 00z HRRR with the potential for strong/severe storms in the local area - including a very low end risk for isolated tornadoes.

Don’t get me wrong, odds are low but if we get some clearing, temps could reach into the low 60s and dewpoints “might” end up high enough for some isolated severe weather.

In addition, the strong low passing directly over us tomorrow afternoon will heighten vorticity and directional shear which is why a brief tornado can’t be ruled out.

Just mentioning it so people aren’t completely caught off guard…

[Coyote]

Wet start Monday, snow chance and cold coming

[stormchaser]

Still looking like a chance for strong/severe storms in our area later this afternoon including a low end risk for an isolated tornado. Otherwise the main threat will likely be hail.

This risk is higher just east of Omaha but some risk exists here too depending on timing that the low pushes through/when storms first develop. The SPC is on board as well and has now included a 2% tornado risk in the local area though Omaha is on the western edge.

SPC tornado risk area for today (though I'm assuming an update will be released here shortly so this may change):



The latest HRRR is showing storm development occurring around Omaha early this afternoon though "most" of the storms probably won't fire until a few hours later to our east.

Image of the simulated radar for ~1 PM based o the 11z HRRR:

[Brad]

Interesting, I had not looked that close at the weather today.

[stormchaser]

Storm development is currently occurring southwest of Omaha (non-severe storms currently but trying to organize anyway).

If something happens in Omaha itself, it'll be in the next hour or 2 as the boundary is currently making its way slowly across the metro from west to east (though the storms to the southwest are moving up this way).

You can pretty easily see the boundary west of 680 currently and the storms to the southwest moving up this way along it/slightly behind it. These storms would probably be mostly hail producers behind the boundary. Anything that fires ahead of the boundary would have at least "some" low end tornado potential (very low end but not impossible).

Radar as of ~10:45 AM:

[Busguy2010]

It's a slow moving boundary. Been sitting in the same spot for a while. It's pretty cool, if you are near there or east of there, you can physically see the boundary.

[Brad]

You can pretty easily see the boundary west of 680 currently

38 in Fremont, 55 in Blair!

[Busguy2010]

Now THIS is rain!

[stormchaser]

A few reports of small hail across the metro (mostly pea to dime size - where the white circles are on the image below):

[Busguy2010]

A few reports of small hail across the metro

I got some Dippin Dots around my parts.

It was easily a heavier rain than anything we've had this year, and I want to say it was better than them all combined. I'd be surprised if I didn't surpass an inch in my particular location just in that short time.

[skinzfan23]

This time, hardly anything in Bellevue, just enough to wet the ground.

[Brad]

This time, hardly anything in Bellevue, just enough to wet the ground.

We only got 0.07" today. Yesterday was 0.91, so right at an inch for the past two days.

[Busguy2010]

This time, hardly anything in Bellevue, just enough to wet the ground.

We only got 0.07" today. Yesterday was 0.91, so right at an inch for the past two days.

Eppley reported .22", but I know I got way more than that. No way to measure it at the moment, but I'm comparing it to our past rains and this was way more substantial. So I wouldn't be surprised if I got around an inch out of this one cell today. I caught the right one I guess, finally.

[Coyote]

Impact weather Monday AM with quick hit of light snow, strong wind

[Cermak]

Barely got above freezing today, probably one of the coldest days we’ve had in the last month. Winters not completely done yet.

[skinzfan23]

Well at least for the next 10 days it is seasonal or even above average and by the end of that period it will be April so it should be on the upswing.

[stormchaser]

Possibly an interesting start next week for weather with potential for severe weather followed by snow in parts of the area.

The 12z GFS has shifted the storm track north on this run to the point that southeast NE would be at risk for severe weather on Monday (April 1st - no joke though) including a threat for tornadoes. Odds are higher it'll end up south of our area but it's a trend that will need to be watched as we get closer.

The SPC has a large risk area out for Monday but it's for areas south of here but if model trends continue, that risk area will need to be shifted north to include our area (or parts of southeast NE anyway).

Then there is at least some risk for snowfall on Tuesday after the low passes by and cold air wraps around it. Exactly where and to what extent is impossible to know this far out yet though.

[stormchaser]

12z ECMWF is in and it's a fair amount different than the 12z GFS. Long story short, still lots of uncertainty with this storm system. Something to keep a close eye on at least either way...

[Omaha Cowboy]

I keep hearing that the Nebraska portion of “Tornado Alley” including the Omaha area, is in the bullseye this year starting in May through June for severe weather and Tornado risk..

Any long range forecast/opinion on that stormchaser?…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[stormchaser]

I keep hearing that the Nebraska portion of “Tornado Alley” including the Omaha area, is in the bullseye this year starting in May through June for severe weather and Tornado risk..

Any long range forecast/opinion on that stormchaser?…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

It's honestly really tough to know since it comes down to so many different variables which is hard to know if/where they would all come together.

That said, we are in the process of transitioning from an "El Nino" global weather pattern to a "ENSO-neutral" weather pattern. What this means is we should see more of an "average" weather pattern once the change over is finished before we start moving into a more "La Nina" weather pattern late this summer into Fall.

However, in my experience - as these changes in patterns are occurring, there is a tendency to have a more active weather pattern with stronger storm systems (kind of like what happens when the seasons change). This "might" mean the next few weeks into May will be particularly active for severe weather and then again late this summer into Fall.

Does that mean for here specifically? Maybe but it'll come down to the overall track of the storm systems, warm fronts, etc.

This coming Monday looks to be a particularly dangerous day if things come together as currently depicted - probably to our south but "maybe" not far from here too. Wouldn't surprise me if there are a few strong/long track tornadoes somewhere from from possibly as far north as far southeast NE/northeast KS into much of MO. It's tough to know yet though.

[Coyote]

I think this was our first yard grass mower this morning.

[Omaha Cowboy]

I keep hearing that the Nebraska portion of “Tornado Alley” including the Omaha area, is in the bullseye this year starting in May through June for severe weather and Tornado risk..

Any long range forecast/opinion on that stormchaser?…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

It's honestly really tough to know since it comes down to so many different variables which is hard to know if/where they would all come together.

That said, we are in the process of transitioning from an "El Nino" global weather pattern to a "ENSO-neutral" weather pattern. What this means is we should see more of an "average" weather pattern once the change over is finished before we start moving into a more "La Nina" weather pattern late this summer into Fall.

However, in my experience - as these changes in patterns are occurring, there is a tendency to have a more active weather pattern with stronger storm systems (kind of like what happens when the seasons change). This "might" mean the next few weeks into May will be particularly active for severe weather and then again late this summer into Fall.

Does that mean for here specifically? Maybe but it'll come down to the overall track of the storm systems, warm fronts, etc.

This coming Monday looks to be a particularly dangerous day if things come together as currently depicted - probably to our south but "maybe" not far from here too. Wouldn't surprise me if there are a few strong/long track tornadoes somewhere from from possibly as far north as far southeast NE/northeast KS into much of MO. It's tough to know yet though.

Thank you for this insight as always!…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[stormchaser]

I keep hearing that the Nebraska portion of “Tornado Alley” including the Omaha area, is in the bullseye this year starting in May through June for severe weather and Tornado risk..

Any long range forecast/opinion on that stormchaser?…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

It's honestly really tough to know since it comes down to so many different variables which is hard to know if/where they would all come together.

That said, we are in the process of transitioning from an "El Nino" global weather pattern to a "ENSO-neutral" weather pattern. What this means is we should see more of an "average" weather pattern once the change over is finished before we start moving into a more "La Nina" weather pattern late this summer into Fall.

However, in my experience - as these changes in patterns are occurring, there is a tendency to have a more active weather pattern with stronger storm systems (kind of like what happens when the seasons change). This "might" mean the next few weeks into May will be particularly active for severe weather and then again late this summer into Fall.

Does that mean for here specifically? Maybe but it'll come down to the overall track of the storm systems, warm fronts, etc.

This coming Monday looks to be a particularly dangerous day if things come together as currently depicted - probably to our south but "maybe" not far from here too. Wouldn't surprise me if there are a few strong/long track tornadoes somewhere from from possibly as far north as far southeast NE/northeast KS into much of MO. It's tough to know yet though.

Thank you for this insight as always!…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

You're welcome!

[Busguy2010]

However, in my experience - as these changes in patterns are occurring, there is a tendency to have a more active weather pattern with stronger storm systems (kind of like what happens when the seasons change). This "might" mean the next few weeks into May will be particularly active for severe weather and then again late this summer into Fall.

Thank you for this insight as always!…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

I hope it comes through as such. As before, I'll never hope for a tornado to cause damage or injury to anybody, but I hope we at least have something of a few threats. If not here in town, then at least somewhere a short drive away.

The weather has been such a snoozer for the last couple-three years.

[skinzfan23]

I’m in eastern Iowa this weekend and right as we got to our destination there was a huge thunderstorm with tons of lightning, nothing severe but nice to see.

[Cermak]

Turned out to be a pretty nice day in Omaha yesterday, I cut the grass for the first time. Which is about 1 to 2 weeks earlier than I usually cut it. Dont ever recall cutting it in March before.