Busguy2010 wrote: Tue Jul 30, 2024 5:57 pm
There was already a large severe, derecho-esque thunderstorm over by Des Moines around 10am. Don't know if that'll sap or shift the available energy for tonight. In any case, I will not be awake for it as it's another over-nighter. Looks like tomorrow evening is actually the better chance of precipitation.
Yeah, tomorrow will be a more widespread event in the local area.
The storms over by Des Moines shouldn't have much of an impact in preventing what happens here. In fact, they should be the trigger for the storms as a result of an outflow boundary that they produced. This boundary should not only trigger the storms later (depending on capping) but also be a boundary for the storms to ride east/southeast along. This boundary is currently lifting back north into the local area and already has a few showers/small storms trying to form over Omaha currently but the cap is preventing them from really taking off for now.
The only real question mark here is if storms can overcome the warm temps aloft and sustain themselves which probably won't happen until later on with initiation probably occurring in a few hours somewhere between Valentine and O'Neill.
Severe warned storms have gone up near Valentine (as expected) with the initial development. There are also some storms trying to fire currently near Omaha. It'll be interesting to see if any of these can actually break the cap and sustain themselves. If they can, they definitely could quickly go severe warned...
stormchaser wrote: Tue Jul 30, 2024 9:43 pm
Severe warned storms have gone up near Valentine (as expected) with the initial development. There are also some storms trying to fire currently near Omaha. It'll be interesting to see if any of these can actually break the cap and sustain themselves. If they can, they definitely could quickly go severe warned...
Yeah the HRRR/RAP haven't been sold on the cap breaking thus far, it will be interesting to watch.
Severe weather is expected in parts of the area today including the Omaha area. The primary risk will be damaging wind and hail but an isolated tornado or 2 is always possible.
The most likely time frame for severe weather in Omaha itself is sometime between 5 PM and 8 PM.
SPC has expanded the enhanced risk for today and now includes almost all of eastern NE. Time window for severe storms in the local area probably has shifted back a couple hours - probably more likely in the 6 PM - 9 or 10 PM range now.
Still looking like mostly a damaging wind/hail threat but an isolated tornado threat still exists as well.
Forward momentum on the storms has picked up faster than I was expecting so the initial wave of storms may hit Omaha right around rush hour (unfortunately) with a damaging wind threat in the local area.
Either way, the watch has just been issued until 10 PM. 80 MPH winds and 1-2 inch diameter hail possible.
stormchaser wrote: Wed Jul 31, 2024 8:03 pm
Forward momentum on the storms has picked up faster than I was expecting so the initial wave of storms may hit Omaha right around rush hour (unfortunately) with a damaging wind threat in the local area.
HRRR seems to be struggling with timing this year and the NAM 3K is off in la la land with the current setup.
stormchaser wrote: Wed Jul 31, 2024 8:03 pm
Forward momentum on the storms has picked up faster than I was expecting so the initial wave of storms may hit Omaha right around rush hour (unfortunately) with a damaging wind threat in the local area.
HRRR seems to be struggling with timing this year and the NAM 3K is off in la la land with the current setup.
Yep - timing and the amount of convection both (though this time it wasn't horrible with that at least)...
Holy sh*t...that was scary. The wind was blowing so hard I was freaking out for once and took shelter. It was like a hurricane just passed through here. My backyard is covered in branches. Luckily a huge branch that fell a couple days ago that stopped just before hitting my fence didn't fall any more.
Sounds like a rain wrapped tornado hit parts of northwest Omaha. Haven’t seen much for structural damage but still, enough to scare people who have already been through a lot in the last few months…
If anyone is curious, the tornado that hit northwest Omaha this evening (assuming it’s confirmed) is what they call a “book end” tornado (or vortex). That area was on the northern edge of the damaging wind/bow echo. So the “physics” work just like a paddle in water - that “spinning” in the water on the edges of the paddle being pushed through the water. Same thing here just with a storm/tornado.
I was at work and came home to find my neighborhood a terrible mess. This is easily worse than 2021 and 2008. Assuming the Benson area got it worst again, but the whole city is recovering to some degree. I truthfully don't expect power back for at least a week.
Wouldn’t be surprised if both of the circled areas end up being confirmed weak tornadoes from yesterday’s storm. Good example of what I described above though with a “bookend tornado” at the top and bottom of a bow - similar to a paddle being pushed through water.
The "goal" for OPPD is to have power fully restored in Omaha in 7-8 days. With the heat that's going to be moving into the area this weekend/next week, that's no good.
stormchaser wrote: Thu Aug 01, 2024 5:46 pm
The "goal" for OPPD is to have power fully restored in Omaha in 7-8 days. With the heat that's going to be moving into the area this weekend/next week, that's no good.
Although it's totally inconvenient, I understand why and how it would take that long. I went through a week of no power 3 years ago, and I have no doubt this will take at least that long. The devastation in my neighborhood is nothing I've seen before. It was a giant curve ball. Although you and the NWS started to hone in on it, I don't think anybody expected it to be this bad. Even watching it myself coming in on radar, it didn't look that bad. Really an unprecedented event. I think the debris is at least twice as bad as 2021 and that's saying a LOT.
stormchaser wrote: Thu Aug 01, 2024 5:46 pm
The "goal" for OPPD is to have power fully restored in Omaha in 7-8 days. With the heat that's going to be moving into the area this weekend/next week, that's no good.
Although it's totally inconvenient, I understand why and how it would take that long. I went through a week of no power 3 years ago, and I have no doubt this will take at least that long. The devastation in my neighborhood is nothing I've seen before. It was a giant curve ball. Although you and the NWS started to hone in on it, I don't think anybody expected it to be this bad. Even watching it myself coming in on radar, it didn't look that bad. Really an unprecedented event. I think the debris is at least twice as bad as 2021 and that's saying a LOT.
The radar precip presentation didn't look that impressive, until Bill and Emily et. al. started overlaying the windspeeds.
BRoss wrote: Fri Aug 02, 2024 2:42 am
Was this last storm a derecho?
Technically no - according to the NWS this storm didn’t meet the 60 mile width and also didn’t meet the minimum 400 mile path length to be considered a derecho (it died out east of Des Moines).
Brad wrote: Fri Aug 02, 2024 2:24 pm
My house. We have had the trees all trimmed last year with the goal of keeping them off the house....
Wow, I won’t complain. I lost one big tree but it fell away from the house. We still have no power, getting close to two full days, 114th and W. Center area.
Power outages suck big time, but it kinda teaches us to take life one bite at a time. I'm trying to keep a positive attitude. I've read more, I've spent more time outside, I've gone to sleep earlier, I've heard less negative chatter, etc. Going on the third night, this is nohing. I'm getting settled in because I know it's gonna be at least 3-7 more days for me personally.
Busguy2010 wrote: Fri Aug 02, 2024 9:05 pm
Power outages suck big time, but it kinda teaches us to take life one bite at a time. I'm trying to keep a positive attitude. I've read more, I've spent more time outside, I've gone to sleep earlier, I've heard less negative chatter, etc. Going on the third night, this is nohing. I'm getting settled in because I know it's gonna be at least 3-7 more days for me personally.
My power came back on about 4pm this afternoon, just shy of 48 hours. This power outage is particularly tough because of the hot weather we are currently having. The 2021 outage which also lasted about 48 hrs for me didn't have this intense heat. My house was 91 inside this afternoon. Hopefully OPPD is ahead of schedule and more houses can regain power soon.
Last edited by Cermak on Sun Aug 04, 2024 3:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Now in our 4th day with no electricity. OPPD told me that with luck we would have it back by Midnight Sunday night. My neighborhood took a terrible beating but the homes nearest me seem to have taken it worse than all the others. I stood on my front porch (facing east, out of the wind) and heard then saw the most beautiful 60’ tall fir tree slowly be uprooted and fall across the entire length of my driveway. Wanted to cry but I was in too much shock. Other large tree limbs buffeted the west side of our house, punching 3 small holes in our roof. So far it’s about $6k to cut up the trees. Much more to haul the mountain away. Then there will be the roof, and checking out AC, which got beaten and knocked off its base. At least my car narrowly escaped being crushed.
It hurts too much to even post the photos.
nativeomahan wrote: Sun Aug 04, 2024 2:53 am
Now in our 4th day with no electricity. OPPD told me that with luck we would have it back by Midnight Sunday night. My neighborhood took a terrible beating but the homes nearest me seem to have taken it worse than all the others. I stood on my front porch (facing east, out of the wind) and heard then saw the most beautiful 60’ tall fir tree slowly be uprooted and fall across the entire length of my driveway. Wanted to cry but I was in too much shock. Other large tree limbs buffeted the west side of our house, punching 3 small holes in our roof. So far it’s about $6k to cut up the trees. Much more to haul the mountain away. Then there will be the roof, and checking out AC, which got beaten and knocked off its base. At least my car narrowly escaped being crushed.
It hurts too much to even post the photos.
Your damage sounds particularly bad.
A large tree fell over on my front lawn, I’m going to start calling around tomorrow. To at least get part of it removed off the street and sidewalk. Will possibly have to deal with the large trunk later. A neighbor cut some of it off the street so at least one car can get through. This storm sucked.
nativeomahan wrote: Sun Aug 04, 2024 2:53 am
Now in our 4th day with no electricity. OPPD told me that with luck we would have it back by Midnight Sunday night. My neighborhood took a terrible beating but the homes nearest me seem to have taken it worse than all the others. I stood on my front porch (facing east, out of the wind) and heard then saw the most beautiful 60’ tall fir tree slowly be uprooted and fall across the entire length of my driveway. Wanted to cry but I was in too much shock. Other large tree limbs buffeted the west side of our house, punching 3 small holes in our roof. So far it’s about $6k to cut up the trees. Much more to haul the mountain away. Then there will be the roof, and checking out AC, which got beaten and knocked off its base. At least my car narrowly escaped being crushed.
It hurts too much to even post the photos.
Your damage sounds particularly bad.
A large tree fell over on my front lawn, I’m going to start calling around tomorrow. To at least get part of it removed off the street and sidewalk. Will possibly have to deal with the large trunk later. A neighbor cut some of it off the street so at least one car can get through. This storm sucked.
I live in the 127th and West Center Rd area in a subdivision north of West Center. We lost power about 5:45 PM as this crazy storm hit our area Wednesday. I rode out 2 days without power at my residence, until I couldn’t take it anymore and have been staying at a hotel downtown since Friday. Our neighborhood finally got power restored Saturday (yesterday) evening. I hope everyone without power gets it restored before days end today. My neighborhood, like so many others, suffered major tree damage..with several tress damaging roofs of homes. Luckily, my home was spared..
This was a crazy storm. Being a complete “armchair meteorologist”, when I saw the storm approach and the sky’s aqua-greenish color, I knew this wouldn’t be good. As the storm hit- I was noticing rotating winds.. Not straight line. I feel like Omaha was hit by a rotating thunderstorm. Stormchaser I bet is right- there was rotation in the winds- at least in one of the circled areas I live in close to Boystown, The weather crew on Channel 7 were saying Omaha basically was hit with what amounted to a CAT 2 hurricane wind/rain event. I would say that is accurate- along with seeing rotating winds..
Let’s hope we don’t see another storm like this for a long LONG time…
It's all blending together for me. Wake up, go to work, try to cool off and charge what I can, take cold shower, eat any sort of non refrigerated item, hydrate, and take it easy. I took care of the immediate tree damage, but the rest can wait until I get power back.
2021 was something around 144 hours (6 days) for me.
I don't even care to think about how long this time looks like it will be. The Benson area is in shambles. I'll be happy and surprised to have power back by Friday, ecstatic if any sooner.
