2024 Weather Thread

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Thu Oct 03, 2024 2:24 pm

Looking off in "la la land" on the long range GFS, it's showing POSSIBLY our first frost and at least "near freezing" temps of the year towards the middle of October (technically the 17th). That being said, take this with a HUGE grain of salt. It's far too far out to have any confidence and the GFS tends to have a cold bias as we start to switch seasons.

Always fun to watch and see what happens though even if odds are extremely low currently.

Still showing very little in the way of precip in our area any time soon.

Post by **Brad** » Thu Oct 03, 2024 9:38 pm

How Omaha is this…

Tiny little line of “storms” pop up near Elkhorn and the Elkhorn vs Burke game is in a lightning delay…

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Thu Oct 03, 2024 10:35 pm

stormchaser wrote: Thu Oct 03, 2024 2:24 pm That being said, take this with a HUGE grain of salt.

Yeah, I will. It would take a fairly large and abrupt turnaround from what we've had in our abnormal climate recently to have our first freeze on time.

Bottom line is im not even remotely preparing for a freeze like I would normally. I feel like it's gonna be a late end to the growing season.

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Fri Oct 04, 2024 12:01 am

Brad wrote: Thu Oct 03, 2024 9:38 pm How Omaha is this…

Tiny little line of “storms” pop up near Elkhorn and the Elkhorn vs Burke game is in a lightning delay…

I was out near 108th and Q and thought I saw lightning

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Fri Oct 04, 2024 1:22 pm

Busguy2010 wrote: Thu Oct 03, 2024 10:35 pm
stormchaser wrote: Thu Oct 03, 2024 2:24 pm That being said, take this with a HUGE grain of salt.
Yeah, I will. It would take a fairly large and abrupt turnaround from what we've had in our abnormal climate recently to have our first freeze on time.

Bottom line is im not even remotely preparing for a freeze like I would normally. I feel like it's gonna be a late end to the growing season.

I tend to agree considering the pattern we've been stuck in for a while now. That said, when it changes, it can change QUICK. It just takes a strong season changing cold front to push in which is pretty typical this time of year and is what's depicted on the GFS to occur around the middle of the month (though like I said before, confidence this far out is low).

I've chased a few times over the years this time of year (and also in early Spring) where I'll see a tornado with storms out ahead of a front, and then while driving home, it's snowing (which of course is behind the front). Always interesting to see the temp plummet as quickly as it does as soon as you pass behind the front.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Fri Oct 04, 2024 1:45 pm

Oh I know it happens and I'm ready for it to happen. I'm just not real confident it will soon. Or if it does, that it wouldn't be short lived. I'm looking for a good solid shift in the jet stream that would bring a cold front in that abruptly drops the temp a good 20+ degrees. The jet stream is so far north I just don't see it happening soon. And like you said, low confidence and only close* to freezing. The 17th is also already late.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Mon Oct 07, 2024 7:59 am

FWIW, I see there was/is a frost advisory for areas near Columbus/Grand Island for last night/this morning...

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Mon Oct 07, 2024 7:42 pm

This is nuts:

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Mon Oct 07, 2024 8:14 pm

skinzfan23 wrote: Mon Oct 07, 2024 7:42 pm This is nuts:

It's getting very frustrating. Especially with no end in sight. This isn't something some rinky dink sprinkle every week is going to fix either. Like, it needs to RAIN, and the more we get into the season, it needs to SNOW.

Post by **nebugeater** » Tue Oct 08, 2024 8:25 am

Monday morning at 6, it was 35 degrees outside. I thought my thermometer was wrong, so I checked some others and a couple of digital boards that I drove by, and it was correct.

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Tue Oct 08, 2024 8:47 am

It was a little warmer in Bellevue, closer to 40, but definitely some of the coolest weather we have had this season.

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Tue Oct 08, 2024 4:32 pm

Looks like a couple of chances of a light freeze both Monday and Tuesday morning next week with lows predicted to be around 33 degrees.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Thu Oct 10, 2024 12:22 pm

I'm kinda doubtful it's going to frost or freeze. NWS and KETV sticking with mid to upper 30's so far. Ill bet if it does, it'll be brief and not strong enough to kill many plants and insects.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Fri Oct 11, 2024 9:00 am

If we do get a frost, it'll probably be Monday night into Tuesday.

Otherwise looking at the long range, things warm up again towards the end of next week with at least some potential for severe weather in the area sometime around Saturday, October 19th based on the last couple runs of the ECMWF.

We obviously could use the rain at least. It does start to look like a pattern change on the horizon so hopefully this dry stretch is about to end.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Fri Oct 11, 2024 9:26 pm

At least it turned kinda cloudy today, and we have a really really outside chance at a sprinkle tonight. It's something other than just warm and sunny. Can't wait for some variety.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Sun Oct 13, 2024 10:23 am

Might want to bring sensitive plants in tonight, or at least cover. Forecast low for Omaha itself is 38, but for the broad forecast area, some spots could get down to 31.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Sun Oct 13, 2024 1:51 pm

Frost advisory issued including Omaha with low temps at around 38 tonight and 33 Monday night and again Tuesday night.

Post by **nebugeater** » Sun Oct 13, 2024 2:21 pm

Busguy2010 wrote: Sun Oct 13, 2024 10:23 am Might want to bring sensitive plants in tonight, or at least cover. Forecast low for Omaha itself is 38, but for the broad forecast area, some spots could get down to 31.

I just have my sensitive plants seak councling

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Mon Oct 14, 2024 4:13 pm

Freeze warning issued for Tuesday night into Wednesday that includes Omaha with a depicted low of around 29 degrees for Omaha itself (and colder temps outside of Omaha) - especially into Iowa.

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwa ... %20warning

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Tue Oct 15, 2024 11:22 am

Yep, tonight should be the one to end the season. Gonna harvest my melons, peppers, tomatoes, bring my aloe in. Already disconnected the irrigation. Whatever left as far as kale, brussels sprouts, collards will all be fine, if only it would rain.

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Tue Oct 15, 2024 12:15 pm

Originally I thought last night was going to be close to freezing, but at least in Bellevue it was still 44 this morning (the cloud cover late last night helped)

As for tonight, underground irrigation should be fine. Any hoses that are connected should be disconnected though.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Tue Oct 15, 2024 7:03 pm

Point being there'll be no reason to continue watering anything, so this is it for the year.

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Wed Oct 16, 2024 10:48 am

Not sure what the temp got down to, but it was a pretty light frost. All of my tropicals are still kicking.

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Wed Oct 16, 2024 10:57 am

Louie wrote: Wed Oct 16, 2024 10:48 am Not sure what the temp got down to, but it was a pretty light frost. All of my tropicals are still kicking.

Good to hear. I live on the very edge of town and my canna plants all took a hit. They still look decent but they all turned brownish.

Grass is also still going to be growing. It was only really cold for a few hours (it dipped down to 27) at my house. But the next 10 days or so are all going to be warm again. The biggest downside, is the chances for rain that we had, have diminished significantly.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Wed Oct 16, 2024 11:48 am

It was officially our first freeze, October 16th, pretty much on the money.

nativeomahan · Post by **nativeomahan** » Thu Oct 17, 2024 3:03 pm

It reached 32f at my house Wednesday morning for about 2 hours. My tomatoes seem just fine. I brought the tropicals into the garage “just in case”.
No more frosts for at least another 7-10 days according to Channel 6 and the NWS.

Post by **Brad** » Sun Oct 20, 2024 3:38 pm

nativeomahan wrote: Thu Oct 17, 2024 3:03 pm It reached 32f at my house Wednesday morning for about 2 hours. My tomatoes seem just fine. I brought the tropicals into the garage “just in case”.

Most of our tomatoes made it just find, only a couple dead branches on the ends.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Sun Oct 20, 2024 8:43 pm

Im still waiting for a good weekend to go camping. The main thing that needs to happen is for it to rain adequately so I could safely have a fire. These temps, although quite a bit higher than normal, aren't bad for camping. But I'm still dreaming of that perfect fall camping weather, where it gets cold enough that you need that fire to sit around to cook something nice and warm, and can't wait to cozy into your sleeping bag. It is sure holding off this year. I watch Bill's 14 day forecast every Sunday night in hopes of seeing something change, but so far not so good. I'd hope it'll feel like fall for more than a day here and there by Halloween.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Sun Oct 20, 2024 10:32 pm

Okay, so not all bad news. Looks like around Halloween it's at least a good bet to cool down to maybe a couple degrees above normal. Could be worse I guess. Still would like it to top out about 60 and bottom out maybe 25. Looks like that's still a ways out. Rain doesn't look great, which is getting to the point of agonizing.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Mon Oct 21, 2024 2:52 pm

Assuming this area of rain holds together southwest of Lincoln...

It's gonna rain...and thunder (in some areas anyway).

Post by **Brad** » Mon Oct 21, 2024 2:58 pm

stormchaser wrote: Mon Oct 21, 2024 2:52 pm Assuming this area of rain holds together southwest of Lincoln...

I sure hope it does...

GetUrban · Post by **GetUrban** » Mon Oct 21, 2024 3:35 pm

Brad wrote: Mon Oct 21, 2024 2:58 pm
stormchaser wrote: Mon Oct 21, 2024 2:52 pm Assuming this area of rain holds together southwest of Lincoln...

I sure hope it does...

I'm beginning to think it will never rain here again. That will be so great if it does, as long as it's not a flood situation, which seems to be happening more and more often everywhere in the world.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Mon Oct 21, 2024 4:17 pm

Well, the NWS has us at a 70% chance... to get a tenth of an inch. It's not much, but would be welcomed. If nothing else, practically the first cloudy day in two months provides some variation.

GetUrban · Post by **GetUrban** » Mon Oct 21, 2024 4:43 pm

This is starting to look promising for rain!

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Mon Oct 21, 2024 6:39 pm

Lots of dry air in the area has killed off the bulk of the precip locally (for now anyway - scattered stuff will move back in later though)

almighty_tuna · Post by **almighty_tuna** » Mon Oct 21, 2024 9:36 pm

It still smelled amazing tonight.

Post by **Brad** » Mon Oct 21, 2024 9:37 pm

almighty_tuna wrote: Mon Oct 21, 2024 9:36 pm It still smelled amazing tonight.

No kidding! Walked by an open window a little bit ago and thought, that's a smell I haven't smelt in a while...

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Tue Oct 22, 2024 8:37 am

It's amazing how refreshing that tiny bit of water was. We ended up with .16", so it even overachieved a little. But yes, the smell was the most notable of it, everybody i passed by or interacted with was saying how good it smells. Amazing we've been that deprived of it, we forgot how good it is.

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Tue Oct 22, 2024 9:43 am

Haha, your thoughts are mine exactly. I think the air is even clearer this morning as well. I got about .22".

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Oct 22, 2024 10:53 am

Something to keep an eye on in the next week or so...

The long range ECMWF is depicting a strong storm system moving through parts of the area sometime around Tuesday, October 29th.

IF this happens (and this far out, it's always a "BIG IF"), there will be potential for severe weather on the warm side of the low (including possibly in our area) as well as some snow/ice potential on the cold side of the low (depicted mostly in far western NE into the Dakotas currently).

It's way too far out to have any confidence but just mentioning it because the weather has been about as quiet as quiet can be and it's easy to fool yourself into thinking severe weather season is 100% over in our area - which it isn't.

If the storm happens, it'll also depend on track of the low, timing the front pushes through, and moisture return/depth which is impossible to know this far out.

If things happens 100% as depicted currently (which is unlikely), the risk would likely be to our east where there will be a tornado threat in parts of Iowa up into parts of Minnesota. That said, it isn't uncommon for the speed of these storm systems to be depicted as slower as we get closer which would put our area more at risk.

Also, the SPC has mentioned the potential in their "day 8" outlook but said it's depending on moisture return as well.

Again, all of this has a very low chance of actually happening currently and is just something to keep an eye on and be aware of.

Depicted dewpoints based on the 00z ECMWF for early afternoon on Tuesday, October 29th: