HskrFanMike wrote: Wed May 14, 2025 7:35 am
Cermak wrote: Wed May 14, 2025 5:32 am
This has to be one of the biggest upsets in local politics. Gov Pillen said to many West Omaha voters just stayed home and didn’t go out to vote. Omaha has had more positive momentum in the past few years than probably any city its size in the United States, don’t really see what the Stothert administration did that was so awful to warrant being tossed out of office. Hope this doesn’t push the city back to slow growth and stagnant development. Time will tell. What a shocking loss.
Pillen wasn't wrong when he said that west Omaha voters stayed home. I mentioned it last night that the Stothert/Melton signs were missing outside my polling place. Now he needs to ask why. Start with staring down Pete Ricketts and his toxic politics, because that final campaign ad likely doubled Ewing's margin of victory.
I think the explanation that the reason Stothert lost is voter turnout is really wishful thinking on the Governor's part. It's always tempting for the losing side to assume that the majority of the electorate favors your issues and your candidates, and the explanation for a loss has to be that the "majority" didn't vote. That lets you ignore the problems with policy and personality, and it is a recipe for more losses.
Plus, the math just doesn't work. Assuming that there are about 7000 votes left to be counted (as reported by the media), that puts total turnout somewhere around 94,000 compared to just shy of 98,000 in 2021 and 100,000 in 2017. She lost by about 11,000. If all 4,000-6,000 of those voters had showed up and voted Stothert, she would have still lost badly. In 2021 she had 62,000 votes, and 52,000 votes in 2021. She is on course for approximately 40,000 this time. It is apparent that thousands of voters who voted for her in previously elections did not do so this time around.
Why? I think it is always hard for an incumbent in an executive office (Governor, Mayor) to win more than 2-3 terms, so she always had that to contend with. Ultimately, I think personality ultimately sunk her. Stothert isn't exactly a warm and fuzzy or inspiring candidate--effective, absolutely, but that doesn't always equate to votes. The national environment also wasn't helpful.
nebugeater wrote: Wed May 14, 2025 5:55 am
Way outside the box thought, and I am outside of Omaha so I have no direct skin in the game.
My thoughts over the last few weeks, with some of her ads, her interviews, and her campaign's direction, are that she had lost the edge for wanting another term. She and her inner circle may have had some desire to hinder her own re-electability possibility with intentional decisions that would lead to just walking away. I seemed to sense a change from anything previous.
I think there is some truth to this. I wonder how much of her desire to seek a fourth term was driven by disdain for McDonnell. Once he was out--mission accomplished.
Regardless, I think their strategy in this campaign was somewhat flawed. They would have been better off trying to oust Ewing in the primary to set up a run against McDonnell. Where would the loyal Democrats have gone in that matchup--almost certainly to Stothert. Instead, she ousted McDonnell in the primary to face Ewing in the General. It seems that her team clearly thought they were behind and started the attacks on Ewing, which made the problem worse for her.
