2025 Weather Thread

[skinzfan23]

It was very warm, but the nice thing, at least in the afternoon and evening, was that the humidity was really low. And there was also that nice wind to keep it cool.

[stormchaser]

For the foreseeable future, we will continue with the relatively dry/pleasant weather in the Omaha area. Things don't currently get active again until maybe the middle of the month - but that's too far to have any confidence. Things can quickly change but for the time being, the weather looks to be about as nice as it could possibly get. This past weekend was about perfect and this upcoming stretch of weather should be similar.

[Brad]

This past weekend was about perfect and this upcoming stretch of weather should be similar.

I agree, what a great weekend. Only problem is that the weekend is over and we don't have another day off!

[stormchaser]

I agree, what a great weekend. Only problem is that the weekend is over and we don't have another day off!

True - maybe they should just give everyone the day off for the foreseeable future too since the weather is nice?

[Busguy2010]

It definitely seems like the temperature is trending warmer than the forecasts. They were 76 and 77 for highs, and the NWS is already 78, and my reading is 82, with plenty of time left. I know im definitely in the minority, I admittedly get frustrated with weather like this because I have plentiful west exposure to the sun, and an old house. Anything over like 60ish and sunny, and its a real B to cool my rooms to a comfortable temp, which for me is like 68 tops. I can do 75 on a cloudy day, but can't have the windows open during this omega block pattern cause it'll get up to the lower 80s inside during the day, and I struggle to get it down to a nice temperature by bedtime. I installed my auxiliary window AC unit like 3 weeks ago, which was much earlier than in years past. Usually wouldnt have to really consider that til mothers day-ish. Heck, I havent even wanted to camp yet this year, because there was hardly even a sweet spot. Just seems to me like its gonna be a long summer.

[Cermak]

This past weekend was about perfect and this upcoming stretch of weather should be similar.

I agree, what a great weekend. Only problem is that the weekend is over and we don't have another day off!

Since Saturday it’s been fantastic out, this is about as good a weather Omaha gets. Maybe some crisp days in September or October can be a little better but that’s about it.

[stormchaser]

Expect there to be a few scattered showers and thunderstorms in parts of the area later today/tonight. No widespread strong/severe storms are expected though isolated stuff is always possible this time of year. These will be somewhat unique since they will be moving east to west so the scattered precip will be moving into Nebraska from Iowa this time.

Otherwise still keeping a close eye on the middle of the month with what "could be" a fairly significant severe weather setup in parts of the area. Like I said before though, way too far out to know what to expect and it'll probably come down to track/timing but next Wednesday (May 14th - or somewhere close to that) will need to be watched to see how things trend in the coming days..

[stormchaser]

It honestly surprises me that the NWS/SPC isn't depicting at least a small chance of precip/storms towards the middle of next week somewhere in our area. I realize the main risk may end up north of us toward Sioux City on north into the Dakotas, etc. I also realize the atmosphere will probably be capped much of the day in our area - but IMO, it looks at least "possible" for the cap to break during the evening/overnight hours Wednesday night into Thursday which could lead to some scattered severe storms. Who knows though, either way the chances would be pretty low unless the cap ends up being weaker than depicted.

Regardless, the pattern does seem like its going to get more active again towards the middle of the month (as I indicated a few days ago) with several storm systems depicted. Until then, this will be about as quiet/dry of a weather pattern you'll ever get this time of year. Going to get relatively warm next week with a few days where will be pushing 90 for high temps. Otherwise it should be pretty nice overall.

[Cermak]

It honestly surprises me that the NWS/SPC isn't depicting at least a small chance of precip/storms towards the middle of next week somewhere in our area. I realize the main risk may end up north of us toward Sioux City on north into the Dakotas, etc. I also realize the atmosphere will probably be capped much of the day in our area - but IMO, it looks at least "possible" for the cap to break during the evening/overnight hours Wednesday night into Thursday which could lead to some scattered severe storms. Who knows though, either way the chances would be pretty low unless the cap ends up being weaker than depicted.

Regardless, the pattern does seem like its going to get more active again towards the middle of the month (as I indicated a few days ago) with several storm systems depicted. Until then, this will be about as quiet/dry of a weather pattern you'll ever get this time of year. Going to get relatively warm next week with a few days where will be pushing 90 for high temps. Otherwise it should be pretty nice overall.

This has been a long stretch of nice weather we’ve had. We did have some rain last Friday. But that’s been it. Last Saturday was probably a top 10 day as well as Sunday and Monday. My criteria for a top 10 day. High temp between 65-75, little to no wind, low humidity, clear blue skies.

[stormchaser]

This has been a long stretch of nice weather we’ve had. We did have some rain last Friday. But that’s been it. Last Saturday was probably a top 10 day as well as Sunday and Monday. My criteria for a top 10 day. High temp between 65-75, little to no wind, low humidity, clear blue skies.

Yep, I agree - extremely nice weather as of late.

[skinzfan23]

Its been great to have the windows open at night, no AC running and the cool air with low humidity. Hopefully these next 6-7 days aren't humid either.

[stormchaser]

Its been great to have the windows open at night, no AC running and the cool air with low humidity. Hopefully these next 6-7 days aren't humid either.

The next few shouldn't be bad but as we get into the middle to end of next week it'll get increasingly humid...

[skinzfan23]

Darn, that has been the one saving grace, even though it has been pretty warm in the day, the nights have been cool and the days haven't been humid.

[Busguy2010]

I'm still just so surprised by how early I had to put my window ac in.

Yeah, I know 75 and sunny makes for a beautiful day outside, but it sure makes for a hot bedroom. I already have my depths of summer setup in. Ac in, insulation on windows, blackout curtains.

This spring has been nothing like the last few years past. Might as well say we skipped spring with the upcoming forecast solidly in the mid 80's.

There was basically no growing season for cool weather crops.

[stormchaser]

Chances for strong/severe storms continue to increase in parts of our area Wednesday evening/night - at least based on recent model data. This risk continues to look highest north of Omaha but chances are increasing it'll impact the local Omaha area as well (probably after dark and possibly into the overnight hours depending on timing). Unlike a few days ago when I first mentioned this possibility, the NWS now has risk of storms Wednesday night too so they've picked up on the threat as well. Probably a decent chance the SPC adds our area (or areas to our north) to a "slight risk" for Wednesday with their next update...

Otherwise it's going to get increasingly hot/muggy the next few days as well.

[Busguy2010]

Thank goodness Bill's 14 day forecast looks a little more reasonable.

This mid to upper 80's, lower 90's bull cr@p can exit the club without letting the door hit it in the a$$.

70's, and even 60's is going to be such a relief. Hope it pans out.

[stormchaser]

The risk for strong to severe storms Wednesday evening/night still seems on track still though it'll depend on capping if we get anything here in Omaha specifically or not and will probably be pretty scattered in our area (more widespread to our north/northwest). The 12z ECMWF really shows storms developing without issue and potentially more of a tornado threat. However, temps may be too warm for surface based storms which would decrease the threat.

After that, my main focus is on a setup that has the potential to produce a tornado outbreak somewhere in the region early next week (probably next Monday, May 19th and/or Tuesday, May 20th). Since it's a week out, plenty of time for things to change but so far there has been plenty of run to run consistency and model of agreement - so odds are substantially higher than it would be without.

[stormchaser]

Tomorrow evening/night still looks like at least some risk for strong to severe storms in the area. If Omaha gets anything, it'll probably be well after dark and possibly after midnight as capping will be in place much of the day/evening. Odd are higher to the northwest/north of us where most of the storms will end up due to cooler temps aloft though it's possible we still get impacted here too but chances are highest that it won't be a big deal in Omaha itself.

Still tracking a more active weather pattern early next week that includes a risk for severe weather either Monday or Tuesday (depending on timing) being the main days that I'm currently watching. As I've already mentioned, this COULD end up being a favorable setup for tornadic storms so definitely needs to be watched closely as we get closer.

[stormchaser]

Continues to look mostly like a "non-event" for severe weather in Omaha today/tonight with capping in place that's too strong for storm development in our area (for the most part - see below).

The only "hope" for us to see any precip out of this will be between approximately 9 PM and Midnight tonight when the HRRR short range model "tries" to develop a few storms in our area before they quickly push off to the northeast. Even if this happens and storms fire, it would be minimal precip amounts (at best) for most everyone.

Otherwise early next week still looks like potentially a larger severe weather threat including a risk for tornadoes somewhere in our area - especially on Tuesday, May 20th based on the last several runs of the ECMWF.

SPC outlook for today:

[stormchaser]

If anything develops and hits Omaha, it will start developing soon to our south/southwest over the next couple of hours. Definitely could with a few isolated storms forming. Currently some towering cumulus trying to organize around Beatrice so we'll see if they continue and break the cap as temps start cooling aloft.

[stormchaser]

Severe weather risk will increase again later this weekend into early next week for parts of the area including Omaha.

Currently Sunday looks like a bigger severe weather threat including a risk for tornadoes though most of the risk should stay into KS and far southern NE (south of Omaha).

Monday currently looks like our primary risk day in Omaha. That risk includes the potential for tornadoes. Otherwise large hail and damaging wind will also be a risk.

Tuesday the risk looks like it'll mostly stay south and east of Omaha currently.

Sunday:




Monday: - this includes a risk for tornadoes in the Omaha area.




Tuesday:

[almighty_tuna]

I just want some decent rain!

[stormchaser]

I just want some decent rain!

Hopefully anyway - odds are pretty high currently at least.

In addition to the severe weather potential, far western NE along the border with WY "might" get cold enough Monday night into Tuesday for a few flakes of snow with lows in the low to mid-30s in that area. On Tuesday, it may end up being an unseasonably cold day here in Omaha depending on the track of things where highs might only be in the low to mid 50s and lows in the lower 40s Tuesday night into Wednesday.

[BRoss]

On Tuesday, it may end up being an unseasonably cold day here in Omaha depending on the track of things where highs might only be in the low to mid 50s and lows in the lower 40s Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Ugh, really not happy about that especially with how nice it's been lately.

[almighty_tuna]

On Tuesday, it may end up being an unseasonably cold day here in Omaha depending on the track of things where highs might only be in the low to mid 50s and lows in the lower 40s Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Sounds like the windows will be wide open and I'll be sleeping like a baby! Mrs Tuna may have opinions about that though

[nebugeater]

On Tuesday, it may end up being an unseasonably cold day here in Omaha depending on the track of things where highs might only be in the low to mid 50s and lows in the lower 40s Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Sounds like the windows will be wide open and I'll be sleeping like a baby! Mrs Tuna may have opinions about that though

diapers and pacifier? ;)

[Busguy2010]

Looks like we may get a fair amount of rain in the forecast! If that means having it a little cooler, im definitely all for that too! I like the upcoming forecast a lot more than its been the last two weeks or so. WE NEED RAIN. Please God, make it happen.

[Cermak]

Really windy out this afternoon , would think some gust around 50 . The sky’s look dusty/smokey. Kind of an ugly day out.

[stormchaser]

Supercells and tornadic storms continued to appear likely tomorrow from near the NE/KS border on south. How much impact we get in Omaha is still uncertain though we will probably get storms and heavy rain, the severe potential locally tomorrow will depend how far north the boundary pushes. Probably south of Omaha though but still a few strong/severe storms locally will be possible.

Monday is our main risk day and continues to look like a pretty widespread severe weather outbreak. This includes the risk for large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes.

[Erik]

Supercells and tornadic storms continued to appear likely tomorrow from near the NE/KS border on south. How much impact we get in Omaha is still uncertain though we will probably get storms and heavy rain, the severe potential locally tomorrow will depend how far north the boundary pushes. Probably south of Omaha though but still a few strong/severe storms locally will be possible.

Monday is our main risk day and continues to look like a pretty widespread severe weather outbreak. This includes the risk for large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes.

Give us something, anything.. Just not another dust storm

[stormchaser]

Give us something, anything.. Just not another dust storm

Lol hopefully not.

Looking like a legit tornado outbreak today to our west/southwest especially into KS and also another tornado outbreak is possible tomorrow but some uncertainty remains. Storms may or may not be discrete enough tomorrow for a more substantial tornado outbreak. Regardless, strong tornadoes both today (to our southwest) and tomorrow (possibly in our area in addition to areas to our south). It’ll depend on if storms are discrete and if any can embed on the warm front expected to be extremely close to Omaha.

[Brad]

I haven’t looked much, but my buddy text and said the warm front is being lazy today…. Not moving fast.

[Busguy2010]

Its really popping out to our west. I'd assume those storms should conglomerate and arrive in the early morning. I have good hope for a fair amount of rain out of this line of storms tonight.

[stormchaser]

Its really popping out to our west. I'd assume those storms should conglomerate and arrive in the early morning. I have good hope for a fair amount of rain out of this line of storms tonight.

Unless something drastically changes, most areas should end up with some good rain out of this in the next couple of days. Only real question is what extent the severe weather will be here. Based on model trends, if storms can remain discrete enough tomorrow, I'd expect tornadic storms in Omaha or extremely close to it tomorrow.

[Busguy2010]

It seems from discussion, they're gonna come together and form a typical broad conglomerate.

I couldn't be surprised by some gusts, heavy rain, lightning, maybe a little hail as it moves through.

Of course, there's always the dome to consider.

One things for sure, this system is cranking out some pretty big boys that are producing some impressive tornados. I wouldn't think the main risk would make it all the way here, but ya never know.

[stormchaser]

It seems from discussion, they're gonna come together and form a typical broad conglomerate.

I couldn't be surprised by some gusts, heavy rain, lightning, maybe a little hail as it moves through.

Of course, there's always the dome to consider.

One things for sure, this system is cranking out some pretty big boys that are producing some impressive tornados. I wouldn't think the main risk would make it all the way here, but ya never know.

To clarify, the tornado threat for us isn’t here tonight. It’s tomorrow. It 100% exists even if storms grow upscale into line segments (which is possible but still unknown). It’s more of a matter of if the tornado risk will be localized and limited to just early as storms first form tomorrow or if things will remain supercellular long enough and consequently produce potentially strong/long track tornadoes (which is also possible but still unknown).

[Busguy2010]

Looks like the rain is about to show up a little earlier than projected, and it looks like storms didn't fill in quite as expected. Still a couple severe ones in progress, but I really think we won't see much here tonight.

[stormchaser]

Looks like the rain is about to show up a little earlier than projected, and it looks like storms didn't fill in quite as expected. Still a couple severe ones in progress, but I really think we won't see much here tonight.

Correct, tonight will mostly be heavy rain/thunder with isolated strong/severe storms mostly for hail. There really wasn’t expected to be much of a risk here tonight (at least not anything different than what’s played out so far).

[Brad]

Greensburg Kansas which was leveled by a strong tornado a few years ago is currently under a tornado emergency for a large destructive tornado.

[Busguy2010]

Saw that. I was out for a bit, so missed the arrival. Looks like hopefully, maybe it just missed the to the east?