2025 Weather Thread

[Busguy2010]

We're getting some pretty impressive cg lightning here. Good enough I felt in a rush to get back in.

[Busguy2010]

Looks like that's a potentially historic tornado happening in central Kansas right now.

A little more activity also headed our way soon. Haven't gotten a real good amount of rain so far, so hope we get some more with it.

[stormchaser]

Based on model trends, the most likely area to see tornadic storms in our region (IMO) is from near Lincoln, down to near Fairbury and east towards Beatrice, Nebraska, City, Falls City, etc. This means the most likely area for tornadoes anyway will probably remain south of Omaha IF things play out as shown. In addition, large to very large hail and damaging wind will be a threat.

This setup has a few issues. The first being storm coverage. There is a relatively good chance this will turn into an "HP" event (high precipitation) which typically means you won't really have a dominant supercell and instead storms will constantly be competing with each other for energy and under cutting each other via outflow. Ultimately it will limit the storm potential. This is why I believe if we get tornadic storms in our area, they will likely occur early on as storms are first developing and can remain discrete. Most likely in the Lincoln to Fairbury and Beatrice areas (IMO) and then "maybe" a secondary risk further east towards Falls city or wherever the southern most edge of the storms ends up (assuming it can remain discrete enough).

In addition to the storm coverage issues, the 850mb winds are weak in our area where the storms are expected to develp and the depicted hodographs on the HRRR are pretty "meh". In other words, lower levels aren't really all that great for tornadoes to develop. This leads me to believe that the most likely scenario for today is for supercells to first develop and produce some large to very large hail and "possibly" a few tornadoes and then storms will start to transition into more of a line segment or cluster of storms which will lead to a decreased tornadic threat and more of a wind/hail/heavy rain threat.

[stormchaser]

Pretty easy to see the exact location of the low pressure and a relatively stationary warm front on visible satellite. This warm front/boundary will need to be watched closely later this afternoon. Typically they add localized low level helicity (aka rotation) with any storms that can embed on them. This means that regardless of my statement above about how the low levels are pretty "meh" for tornadoes, a warm front can change that over a localized area.

Image below I depicted the location of the low pressure and warm front (as of ~8 AM):




Animation of the visible satellite as of ~8 AM:

[skinzfan23]

Got some pretty good rain last night in Bellevue. .80" That is the most we have had in Bellevue since last fall.

[nebugeater]

I have friends in the Oakland NE area that are reporting over 2" overnight as of an hour ago.

[stormchaser]

I'm leaning towards heading northwest of Omaha towards a secondary target around Columnbus/Fremont later on this afternoon. I'm hoping this target will remain discrete enough and IMO, the low level winds are better in this area.

[Mr.Nuke]

I'm leaning towards heading northwest of Omaha towards a secondary target around Columnbus/Fremont later on this afternoon. I'm hoping this target will remain discrete enough and IMO, the low level winds are better in this area.

Yeah that area is looking decent enough to potentially chase. MD issued just to the West of Omaha.

[Mr.Nuke]

[BRoss]

Radar is starting to show it not really hitting us now. Des Moines might get hit hard instead.

[stormchaser]

Radar is starting to show it not really hitting us now. Des Moines might get hit hard instead.

Things are still firing out by York, etc that would come our way. That said, in Omaha itself we "might" get missed - partly because it's possible they will die out before they get here. Hard to say but we didn't really clear off/destabilize like areas west and south of us did.

[Busguy2010]

One small cell between Beatrice and Lincoln, if it stands a chance of gaining steam, looks to track over the west side of the metro, or even farther west than that. Otherwise, another one near the Kansas border is losing steam.

As the sun is coming out lol.

[stormchaser]

The one west of Omaha near Columbus right now still has some tornado potential. It's embedding on the warm front currently and is turning east more towards Omaha. Usually when this happens, it produces tornadoes but I guess we'll see.

[stormchaser]

...and there's the tornado warning on it

[stormchaser]

Tornado from near North Bend west of Fremont a little while ago:

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1AAUBf ... tid=wwXIfr

[Busguy2010]

Sooooooooo...

Not from a storm chasing standpoint, but an Omaha weather standpoint, nothin happened here. Yet again.

[nativeomahan]

OmaDome wins again. Not even sprinkles at my house.

[Busguy2010]

The forecast was saying we were gonna get about a half an inch today. I hate to get excited for a little bit of moisture, and end up with essentially nothing. Last night was... okay. I'm glad we didn't get severe weather, but dang, I was hoping for something.

[stormchaser]

I'm not at all surprised - I indicated that I thought that might happen in this post here: viewtopic.php?p=413619#p413619.

We just had a capping inversion over the area for too long which is why it stayed cloudy/drizzly in our area much of the day when areas west and south of us cleared off and consequently destabilized. That's why they saw storms/precip and we didn't.

[nebugeater]

I ended up with 0.7 in Gretna starting with the Sunday Overnight, though 4:30 AM this AM (Tue)

[skinzfan23]

I am definitely for the rain (although Rusty said only 1/2" for the whole weekend combined) and I know the heat will be here before we know it, but I don't like these cloudy 15-20 degree below normal days. The next 8 days are all well below normal for the most part and it doesn't start getting back to seasonal temps until next weekend.

[Busguy2010]

I'm lovin it. Making up for all them well above normal days we've had.

Every time I stepped outside yesterday, when the air struck me, I said "God, its beautiful".

[BRoss]

I am definitely for the rain (although Rusty said only 1/2" for the whole weekend combined) and I know the heat will be here before we know it, but I don't like these cloudy 15-20 degree below normal days. The next 8 days are all well below normal for the most part and it doesn't start getting back to seasonal temps until next weekend.

Yeah, I wish it could be warmer, especially for this long weekend. After a longer period of nice temperatures, it's difficult to go back to this. Highs below 70 are depressing to me.

[Busguy2010]

I guess we're all different. Anything over, I'll give 78, I feel is above my comfort zone. Of course, ya gotta deal with it anyway. We didn't get much of a moderate spring this year, and well, here's what we were supposed to have a month ago. Spring flip flopped on us. We're paying it back. Of course, im the guy that disc golfs much more in October-November-December, than June-July-August.

[skinzfan23]

Yeah, I think I am ok with the cooler temps as long as the sun is out like yesterday. Although today isn't turning out to be too bad either.

[Busguy2010]

I appreciate the somewhat decent rainfall mother nature is giving us right now. At least its not just mist or spitting.

[Busguy2010]

Actually its turning out to be pretty much a perfect rain rate. Enough that it might stand a chance of soaking in, but not too much that it might all run off.

We just need it sustained... For... like the rest of the year.

I stopped keeping track a while ago, but I'd guess year over year, we're probably in the neighborhood of two feet behind.

[skinzfan23]

Agreed this is a nice rainfall and no severe weather with it (seems like that rarely happens anymore)

According to wowt we are around 2-3” below normal, but that is only at Eppley and there have been several times this year when one area of the metro gets dumped on and everyone else gets nothing.

[skinzfan23]

On a side note, all of my neighbors have been watering daily and some twice a day recently. I actually watch the forecast and haven’t run my sprinklers for over a week and my yard still looks nicer than theirs. I am very thankful for this moisture…it also helps so I don’t have to water my garden and the over 100 plants I planted at our neighborhood entrance.

[Brad]

On a side note, all of my neighbors have been watering daily and some twice a day recently. I actually watch the forecast and haven’t run my sprinklers for over a week and my yard still looks nicer than theirs.

Overwatering doesn’t promote deep root growth. Not only does yours look better, I’m sure it’s way healthier too with deeper roots making it more drought tolerant.

[Busguy2010]

I was saying year after year of compiled deficit, we're probably about two feet behind.

We've been in a deficit for (insert #) of years, over years. I stopped keeping track when we were behind 15", and that's only since 2020ish. I'm pretty sure every single year since, we've come up with a deficit. Even that 11" event last May didnt catch us up for even just that year. Its all just compounding.

I was just glad to get rain... Like AT ALL today. Eppley only reporting about a tenth of an inch so far, but I swear it has to be more where I've been. Its been raining lightly, but steadily since about 1pm.

Mother nature. That fickle woman has me trained to expect nothing to the point im excited about these little bread crumbs.

[skinzfan23]

Overwatering doesn’t promote deep root growth. Not only does yours look better, I’m sure it’s way healthier too with deeper roots making it more drought tolerant.

Yes I agree. The roots don’t go down at all when they are constantly getting moisture. Also so many people water at 9-10 pm every night which is bad because it can result in disease. I can notice a difference when I run the sprinklers somewhat consistently, I would hate to see their water bill. There is just no need for that. Sprinklers are meant to be a supplement to Mother Nature not an everyday thing.

Here is my yard from the middle of last summer and I never run mine for more than 3 times per week:

[Busguy2010]

Rock on to this forecast! I don't care if the "unofficial start to summer" is this weekend. Psh. Summer started weeks ago. We absolutely need the rain and the cooler temps. Summer started early, spring arrived late. I'm very happy to see this turnaround.

[stormchaser]

The next several days will continue to be relatively quiet for storm potential with temperatures rebounding to more seasonable throughout the week into this weekend (highs in the mid to upper 80s by this weekend).

The stretch of quiet weather will likely end during the 1st week of June where it looks like the weather pattern will become increasingly active/favorable for severe weather again including what is currently depicted as several rounds of severe weather which will include the potential for tornadic storms (maybe multiple days with this threat).

Plenty of time for things to change yet but currently it looks very active.

[Cermak]

The next several days will continue to be relatively quiet for storm potential with temperatures rebounding to more seasonable throughout the week into this weekend (highs in the mid to upper 80s by this weekend).

The stretch of quiet weather will likely end during the 1st week of June where it looks like the weather pattern will become increasingly active/favorable for severe weather again including what is currently depicted as several rounds of severe weather which will include the potential for tornadic storms (maybe multiple days with this threat).

Plenty of time for things to change yet but currently it looks very active.

Today was actually not a bad day, even cloudy an all. I like days like this occasionally.

[stormchaser]

The next several days will continue to be relatively quiet for storm potential with temperatures rebounding to more seasonable throughout the week into this weekend (highs in the mid to upper 80s by this weekend).

The stretch of quiet weather will likely end during the 1st week of June where it looks like the weather pattern will become increasingly active/favorable for severe weather again including what is currently depicted as several rounds of severe weather which will include the potential for tornadic storms (maybe multiple days with this threat).

Plenty of time for things to change yet but currently it looks very active.

Today was actually not a bad day, even cloudy an all. I like days like this occasionally.

I agree - especially considering there was hardly any wind

[stormchaser]

It’ll be interesting to see if we get any pop up storms in the local Omaha area over the next few hours. Short range model guidance shows it in the area at least with more widespread precip moving through west/southwest of us. Not really expecting anything severe but it’s always possible this time of year.

[stormchaser]

Strong to severe storms are possible in part of the area today - especially areas west and north of Omaha. Damaging wind and large hail will be the main threat with an isolated tornado or 2 possible (though odds are low).

In Omaha itself, we may or may not get anything strong/severe in the metro - chances are we won't but it depends how quickly the storms start weakening tonight. Based on short range model guidance, the most likely time frame locally is sometime around midnight (roughly). We'll get rain/thunder but the severe potential here is pretty low currently but still potential so we'll see.

Here is the latest SPC outlook:

[Busguy2010]

Don't wanna draw away from the severe threat, though according to Rusty its not much to worry about.

Just wanted to mention the differential between the peak temperature today and what will be tomorrow. 30 degrees or more.

I couldn't venture to say the last time we had a day in June struggle to get out of the 50's.

[skinzfan23]

Its my fault, just put our pool up yest for the season. Funny thing is, the actual high will probably be in the 70's (happening right after midnight)