2025 Weather Thread

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Thu Jul 10, 2025 3:16 pm

The local NWS is watching the same area I referenced above...

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Thu Jul 10, 2025 5:01 pm

We were just upgraded to enhanced.

almighty_tuna · Post by **almighty_tuna** » Thu Jul 10, 2025 6:08 pm

almighty_tuna · Post by **almighty_tuna** » Thu Jul 10, 2025 8:10 pm

Mesoscale discussion 1631 w/a 95% chance for watch issuance
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1631.html

Post by **Brad** » Thu Jul 10, 2025 8:13 pm

almighty_tuna wrote: Thu Jul 10, 2025 8:10 pm Mesoscale discussion 1631 w/a 95% chance for watch issuance
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1631.html

And there's the watch:

ShawJ · Post by **ShawJ** » Fri Jul 11, 2025 12:58 am

Now a severe thunderstorm watch.

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Fri Jul 11, 2025 12:23 pm

Pretty uneventful for Omaha in particular.

djc311 · Post by **djc311** » Fri Jul 11, 2025 12:33 pm

Louie wrote: Fri Jul 11, 2025 12:23 pm Pretty uneventful for Omaha in particular.

I'm very grateful that we saw basically nothing, as one of our kids has serious issues with weather. This was one of those cases where things were hyped up like crazy and turned out to be absolutely nothing for the immediate metro. I imagine there were storms but somehow fell apart.

I'd rather have this than the opposite (where they forecast nothing and we get slammed with a surprise storm). However, just goes to show no matter what technology they use, it's still not a guarantee they can tell you what's coming all the time.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Fri Jul 11, 2025 2:14 pm

Louie wrote: Fri Jul 11, 2025 12:23 pm Pretty uneventful for Omaha in particular.

I agree. Though there were some pretty sizeable gusts, and at a certain point, it rained sideways enough I had to go back inside. But seeing that the last local forecast I saw had us at over 4" of rain, this was next to nothing.

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Fri Jul 11, 2025 2:42 pm

Busguy2010 wrote: Fri Jul 11, 2025 2:14 pm
Louie wrote: Fri Jul 11, 2025 12:23 pm Pretty uneventful for Omaha in particular.
I agree. Though there were some pretty sizeable gusts, and at a certain point, it rained sideways enough I had to go back inside. But seeing that the last local forecast I saw had us at over 4" of rain, this was next to nothing.

I use Weather Underground and at one point they were projecting 2.93', think I ended up with around a half.

Post by **BRoss** » Fri Jul 11, 2025 4:25 pm

Louie wrote: Fri Jul 11, 2025 2:42 pm
Busguy2010 wrote: Fri Jul 11, 2025 2:14 pm
Louie wrote: Fri Jul 11, 2025 12:23 pm Pretty uneventful for Omaha in particular.
I agree. Though there were some pretty sizeable gusts, and at a certain point, it rained sideways enough I had to go back inside. But seeing that the last local forecast I saw had us at over 4" of rain, this was next to nothing.
I use Weather Underground and at one point they were projecting 2.93', think I ended up with around a half.

Last night I only got .31" and with the night before included, only .52". But I've gotten 3.1" so far this month so doing pretty good for July.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Fri Jul 11, 2025 5:36 pm

FWIW, there will probably be some severe weather not too far east of Omaha in parts of southwest Iowa over the next few hours including a risk for tornadoes. Red Oak on east/northeast is at risk depending on timing of when storms fire based on the mesoanalysis, HRRR mdoel guidance and visible satellite.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Mon Jul 14, 2025 8:08 pm

Probably some additional severe weather in parts of the area tomorrow night (especially west of town but possibly here in Omaha also) and Wednesday as well. Primarily damaging wind/hail threats both days but Wednesday will probably be more during the daylight hours.

Post by **Brad** » Wed Jul 16, 2025 4:59 am

Right on time... They said the storms would be here between Midnight and 3am and here they are,

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Wed Jul 16, 2025 5:07 am

Interesting observing the outflow boundary coming in dry. Last check, Bill said that would prevent severe weather, but apparently that outflow was enough to constitute a severe warning. The gusts were a little more impressive than I was expecting. Definitely has the trees whipping around. The fact the front moved through 10-15 minutes ago and its still really windy, and still dry is intriguing.

Cermak · Post by **Cermak** » Wed Jul 16, 2025 2:27 pm

Glad this storm didn’t amount to much, We are getting very close to the one year anniversary of the July 31 mega storm.

almighty_tuna · Post by **almighty_tuna** » Wed Jul 16, 2025 2:37 pm

Plus, now the next two days are going to be gorgeous!

Cermak · Post by **Cermak** » Thu Jul 17, 2025 8:48 pm

almighty_tuna wrote: Wed Jul 16, 2025 2:37 pm Plus, now the next two days are going to be gorgeous!

Probably a top 10 day today, I turned the AC off this morning. But mid 80’s tomorrow and then warming up again.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Thu Jul 17, 2025 9:41 pm

It seems to me it's a particular rarity for it to be this darn comfortable in the middle of July. I like it, a lot. Not lookin forward to that warm up, but still trying to enjoy as much of today as I can.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Fri Jul 18, 2025 2:07 pm

Severe weather is expected to develop tonight in northeast NE and northwest IA/southeast SD and move southeast. It "should" stay north and east of Omaha but a low end chance we could get clipped by something during the overnight hours.

Otherwise the 12z HRRR is depicting the potential for supercells in parts of the area tomorrow/tomorrow evening. The SPC has us in a marginal risk with a slight risk off to our east tomorrow. If model trends continue, don't be surprised if much of eastern NE will be added to a slight risk with a risk for damaging wind, large hail, and possibly a few isolated tornadoes.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Sat Jul 19, 2025 1:54 pm

Still looks like potential for severe weather in parts of the area tonight - mostly between 10 PM and 2 AM with primarily a damaging wind/hail threat.

nativeomahan · Post by **nativeomahan** » Sat Jul 19, 2025 9:11 pm

Next week will be a classic July heat wave! A full week of 90+ degree weather, with afternoon heat indexes mostly over 100f.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Sun Jul 20, 2025 2:26 am

I already thought today sucked with a temperature of *only* 90, and a dewpoint of 77! To think its going to ramp up from here makes me wanna puke.

But, what I've enjoyed about today has been the cloud cover, and looking at the NWS forecast for tonight, I like to see the term "Heavy rain". I hope that pans out.

Cermak · Post by **Cermak** » Tue Jul 22, 2025 12:53 am

Busguy2010 wrote: Sun Jul 20, 2025 2:26 am I already thought today sucked with a temperature of *only* 90, and a dewpoint of 77! To think its going to ramp up from here makes me wanna puke.

But, what I've enjoyed about today has been the cloud cover, and looking at the NWS forecast for tonight, I like to see the term "Heavy rain". I hope that pans out.

Glad we had some clouds today, it helped.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Tue Jul 22, 2025 1:34 am

Cermak wrote: Tue Jul 22, 2025 12:53 am Glad we had some clouds today, it helped.

Me too. I dont think anybody was expecting it to stay this cloudy all day, so its been a nice surprise to keep the sharp edge off the heat.

A bit of a tease though, seeing all that darkness and texture to the clouds, knowing its been raining all day not all that far away.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Jul 23, 2025 3:54 pm

Potential for some damaging wind in parts of the area tonight - in Omaha specifically sometime between 8 PM and 11 PM probably if things hold together long enough...

Post by **nebugeater** » Wed Jul 23, 2025 6:19 pm

stormchaser wrote: Wed Jul 23, 2025 3:54 pm Potential for some damaging wind in parts of the area tonight - in Omaha specifically sometime between 8 PM and 11 PM probably if things hold together long enough...

It just feels like on of those days outside right now

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Wed Jul 23, 2025 7:11 pm

nebugeater wrote: Wed Jul 23, 2025 6:19 pm
stormchaser wrote: Wed Jul 23, 2025 3:54 pm Potential for some damaging wind in parts of the area tonight - in Omaha specifically sometime between 8 PM and 11 PM probably if things hold together long enough...
It just feels like on of those days outside right now

mmm, I don't know. I don't remember the last time it was almost 100 degrees and it actually produced a remarkable severe event. It doesn't really feel like one of those days to me. Not that something won't happen, It's just too hot to strike me as "one of those days".

It certainly is miserable though.

Post by **nebugeater** » Wed Jul 23, 2025 7:40 pm

Busguy2010 wrote: Wed Jul 23, 2025 7:11 pm
nebugeater wrote: Wed Jul 23, 2025 6:19 pm
stormchaser wrote: Wed Jul 23, 2025 3:54 pm Potential for some damaging wind in parts of the area tonight - in Omaha specifically sometime between 8 PM and 11 PM probably if things hold together long enough...
It just feels like on of those days outside right now
mmm, I don't know. I don't remember the last time it was almost 100 degrees and it actually produced a remarkable severe event. It doesn't really feel like one of those days to me. Not that something won't happen, It's just too hot to strike me as "one of those days".

It certainly is miserable though.

Well, I am in Fremont right now, so maybe it is a Fremont vibe!

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Jul 23, 2025 7:56 pm

Busguy2010 wrote: Wed Jul 23, 2025 7:11 pm
nebugeater wrote: Wed Jul 23, 2025 6:19 pm
stormchaser wrote: Wed Jul 23, 2025 3:54 pm Potential for some damaging wind in parts of the area tonight - in Omaha specifically sometime between 8 PM and 11 PM probably if things hold together long enough...
It just feels like on of those days outside right now
mmm, I don't know. I don't remember the last time it was almost 100 degrees and it actually produced a remarkable severe event. It doesn't really feel like one of those days to me. Not that something won't happen, It's just too hot to strike me as "one of those days".

It certainly is miserable though.

It's certainly too hot right now. However, a cold front will move through the area this evening and will cool things off aloft enough for storms. Only question is if it'll be severe here or not. The main risk for severe stuff will be north and west of Omaha but we "might" get hit too depending on how long storms can maintain their strength. Either way, we will get some rain/storms anyway.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Thu Jul 24, 2025 1:01 am

Pretty good size complex out there by GI. Probably will take a while to get here, but I'm hopeful it stays together and we get a nice rain out of it.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Thu Jul 24, 2025 1:15 am

Chances have increased we’ll get a damaging wind event in the Omaha area in a few hours as this line is bowing out and starting to pick up speed. The threat is greatest in the local area around Fremont to Blair but the Omaha metro will probably get hit too (unless things die out on the southern edge of the line which is always possible). Sometime between 10 and midnight probably.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Thu Jul 24, 2025 2:20 am

Looks like the line has started to weaken some. Outflow is starting to push out ahead of the line. Still storms in the area but damaging wind potential is uncertain.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Thu Jul 24, 2025 2:37 am

That outflow is pretty far out front of the storm. I'm starting to think itll be like that last storm. Pretty good wind out front of the rain, but not real impressive on either hand. We'll see. I was hoping for about a third of an inch, but starting to look like that'll be a tough sell.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Thu Jul 24, 2025 4:10 am

Almost copy-paste from that last storm. Fairly strong gust from the outflow, maybe 40ish mph, about 20 minutes ahead of the rain. Although, the rain has been pretty weak. I hope it picks up. That last storm was enough to cause some damage to my garden and surrounding trees, and I wouldn't be surprised by similar results in the morning.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Thu Jul 24, 2025 6:00 am

Now we're talkin!

PWL73316 · Post by **PWL73316** » Thu Jul 24, 2025 3:58 pm

Jim Flowers took more potshots at the current news teams and Tim Schmidt from KMTV bit back. Very amusing.

Screenshot 2025-07-24 105314.jpg

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1Bo6DG6trH/

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Thu Jul 24, 2025 8:16 pm

PWL73316 wrote: Thu Jul 24, 2025 3:58 pm Jim Flowers took more potshots at the current news teams and Tim Schmidt from KMTV bit back. Very amusing.

Screenshot 2025-07-24 105314.jpg
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1Bo6DG6trH/

Yeah, Jim just needs to go away. Not sure what he thinks he's accomplishing.

Mr.Nuke · Post by **Mr.Nuke** » Thu Jul 24, 2025 8:30 pm

stormchaser wrote: Thu Jul 24, 2025 8:16 pm
PWL73316 wrote: Thu Jul 24, 2025 3:58 pm Jim Flowers took more potshots at the current news teams and Tim Schmidt from KMTV bit back. Very amusing.

Screenshot 2025-07-24 105314.jpg

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1Bo6DG6trH/
Yeah, Jim just needs to go away. Not sure what he thinks he's accomplishing.

He still likes the attention until he flubs a forecast (typically overaggressive be it snow, wind, or in this case rainfall) and gets called out for it, deactivates his page for awhile, rinse and repeat. I'll bullshit on his the in house models yielding 6" based on the 18z suite from yesterday which was what they would've been forecasting off for the 5 to 6 p.m. broadcasts. I also don't see how he could've had access to "in-house" models either given the GRAF isn't available on any of the pay sites as far as I'm aware. And again, I'm highly doubting it was showing 6" anywhere in the area much less the main forecast area (Omaha) for the local mets.

I'm glad to see someone actually call him out on it for once, because the local mets all did a pretty good job of handling this one last night and there was zero reason to call any of them out especially for this storm and this station (I don't hold 3 or aka 3rd in all that high esteem ether), the last that was willing to give him a job in Omaha.

nativeomahan · Post by **nativeomahan** » Thu Jul 24, 2025 11:32 pm

Wow Jim seems more than a little cranky. The meteorologist version of “Hey you kids, get off of my lawn!”