Omaha and Lincoln lagging in Job Growth

[almighty_tuna]

Our intrepid governor continues to fail our state...
https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2025/12/22 ... ain-drain/

Pillen, a former University of Nebraska regent, has argued that the state should focus more attention on emphasizing its strengths in areas like agribusiness and logistics and helping homegrown businesses seed and grow in the state.
......
Chamber officials said that at a time when other states have cranked up incentives, they have watched Nebraska freeze, sweep or cut resources in several economic development programs due to budget shortfalls.
.....
Gov. Jim Pillen’s administration has defended some of the program trims to find savings that helped balance the budget and provide support for other priorities, including property tax relief for Nebraskans.
.....
The result is clear: Nebraska now trails its neighbors in both new job creation and population growth,” said the Chamber report ... Had Nebraska matched the growth in peer states, the chamber report said, Omaha and Lincoln would have roughly 68,000 additional jobs that would have produced about $11 billion in wages and up to $800 million of additional tax revenue.

Just so we're clear on this - Pillen pushed LB754 to reduce taxes from 6.64% to 3.99% in 2023 which decreased NE revenue, he supported the BBB which burdens NE further to the tune of $200M+ over two years, and now we're looking at a $400M+ shortfall and tied for the worst GDP dip in the United States. But no, let's keep pushing a reduction of property taxes which will further erode our revenue.

Pillen is the most self serving, douch3 canoe of a Governor I can remember and has done nothing but harm the state, often to the benefit of him and his agriculture business. I don't care what party his replacement comes from, this guy's gotta go.

[nebport5]

Our intrepid governor continues to fail our state...
https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2025/12/22 ... ain-drain/

Pillen, a former University of Nebraska regent, has argued that the state should focus more attention on emphasizing its strengths in areas like agribusiness and logistics and helping homegrown businesses seed and grow in the state.
......
Chamber officials said that at a time when other states have cranked up incentives, they have watched Nebraska freeze, sweep or cut resources in several economic development programs due to budget shortfalls.
.....
Gov. Jim Pillen’s administration has defended some of the program trims to find savings that helped balance the budget and provide support for other priorities, including property tax relief for Nebraskans.
.....
The result is clear: Nebraska now trails its neighbors in both new job creation and population growth,” said the Chamber report ... Had Nebraska matched the growth in peer states, the chamber report said, Omaha and Lincoln would have roughly 68,000 additional jobs that would have produced about $11 billion in wages and up to $800 million of additional tax revenue.

Just so we're clear on this - Pillen pushed LB754 to reduce taxes from 6.64% to 3.99% in 2023 which decreased NE revenue, he supported the BBB which burdens NE further to the tune of $200M+ over two years, and now we're looking at a $400M+ shortfall and tied for the worst GDP dip in the United States. But no, let's keep pushing a reduction of property taxes which will further erode our revenue.

Pillen is the most self serving, douch3 canoe of a Governor I can remember and has done nothing but harm the state, often to the benefit of him and his agriculture business. I don't care what party his replacement comes from, this guy's gotta go.

This stat is staggering. Even a mediocre half pace could’ve eliminated the current shortfall.

The legislative session needs to start with a governor recall bill. I don’t care if there’s little chance of getting it passed but doing so would publicly put Pillen on notice going into the 2026 election.

[riceweb]

FYI Nebraska's income tax rates were so staggeringly high that they kept many high earners from ever moving to our state. I will note that when we moved back to be closer to family, it was a massive financial hit for us. No rational high earner is picking Nebraska over Texas or Washington or Tennessee or Florida with our income tax structure. And arguably, our income tax rate is still too high, but at least at 3.99% it's not completely absurd.

[Doctor Fate]

Our intrepid governor continues to fail our state...
https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2025/12/22 ... ain-drain/

The result is clear: Nebraska now trails its neighbors in both new job creation and population growth,” said the Chamber report ... Had Nebraska matched the growth in peer states, the chamber report said, Omaha and Lincoln would have roughly 68,000 additional jobs that would have produced about $11 billion in wages and up to $800 million of additional tax revenue.

This stat is staggering. Even a mediocre half pace could’ve eliminated the current shortfall.

The legislative session needs to start with a governor recall bill. I don’t care if there’s little chance of getting it passed but doing so would publicly put Pillen on notice going into the 2026 election.

But the eye test….
/s

[nebport5]

FYI Nebraska's income tax rates were so staggeringly high that they kept many high earners from ever moving to our state. I will note that when we moved back to be closer to family, it was a massive financial hit for us. No rational high earner is picking Nebraska over Texas or Washington or Tennessee or Florida with our income tax structure. And arguably, our income tax rate is still too high, but at least at 3.99% it's not completely absurd.

Ok, sure but it's not like people are |expletive|* in droves now from out of state. Instead of the current administration delighting in legislation that drives people away and being generally antagonistic to economic development that would actually help Nebraska be more competitive with other states that already have more appeal...maybe actually engaging in the opposite first would actually bring enough people and revenue in such that tax rates could reduce without compromising education, health services and other state programs that benefit not just the electorate but also potential transplants.

*(apparently "f l o c k i n g” is vulgar language?)

[Brad]

apparently "f l o c k i n g” is vulgar language?

LOL, that funny. It looks like the word censor has the * in place of the u, so " f*cking " which its getting "f l o c k i n g” too. Probably to keep people from trying to go around the filter.

[riceweb]

Ok, sure but it's not like people are |expletive|* in droves now from out of state. Instead of the current administration delighting in legislation that drives people away and being generally antagonistic to economic development that would actually help Nebraska be more competitive with other states that already have more appeal...maybe actually engaging in the opposite first would actually bring enough people and revenue in such that tax rates could reduce without compromising education, health services and other state programs that benefit not just the electorate but also potential transplants.

*(apparently "f l o c k i n g” is vulgar language?)

Was there a single state with any income tax at all let alone a high income tax that saw growth in the last decade, especially among high earners? My worry is that we didn't cut income taxes and taxes in general far enough, so we're still not competitive with other states. I didn't even speak to property taxes, which were also higher for us coming from out of state. All in all, the move for us was just an awful financial move.

We finally in the last year of Biden saw a bunch of people from places like India and China move to Nebraska, and that's really our only meaningful growth as a state in ages. With the spigot of immigration cut off by the Trump admin, combined with birth rates continuing to slow even in Nebraska, I think there's a high likelihood that Nebraska begins stalling out.

For me the question is: if there's no national population growth, what should tax policy look like? Should we try to grow by poaching from other states? Is that even possible? Can we meaningfully offer services and a quality of life high enough for people to ignore our high taxes? I don't know the answers to these questions.

[nebport5]

So after trying to axe The Good Life money from the budget last year and stating he regretted signing those incentives into law Pillen is now taking credit for them with the recent Avenue One announcements.

[Flyer14]

lol just wait and see if the streetcar is successful

[Greg S]

I know some were questioning the validity of this report (see posts on page 1). The Omaha Chamber seems to indicate the numbers are real and is attempting to reverse the issues:

https://www.ketv.com/article/in-respons ... n/69843419

https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2025/12/22 ... ain-drain/

[Erik]

Its a new era in Nebraska, where jobs dont matter as much as farmers property taxes

[riceweb]

I know some were questioning the validity of this report (see posts on page 1). The Omaha Chamber seems to indicate the numbers are real and is attempting to reverse the issues

The issue's definitely real, we're absolutely lagging behind the southern growth states. I want to know where growth is supposed to come from? We're entering a long-term trend of lower immigration (just hear the comments from Davos, it's all about AI for productivity growth, actively downplaying immigration now).

If we have an extended period of time with negative immigration, with declining birth rates, and an aging population, where is the growth going to come from? I think there's a very strong chance that both as a state and as a city we see completely flat or declining population for at least the next 20 years.

We should plan accordingly.

[Linkin5]

I know some were questioning the validity of this report (see posts on page 1). The Omaha Chamber seems to indicate the numbers are real and is attempting to reverse the issues

The issue's definitely real, we're absolutely lagging behind the southern growth states. I want to know where growth is supposed to come from? We're entering a long-term trend of lower immigration (just hear the comments from Davos, it's all about AI for productivity growth, actively downplaying immigration now).

If we have an extended period of time with negative immigration, with declining birth rates, and an aging population, where is the growth going to come from? I think there's a very strong chance that both as a state and as a city we see completely flat or declining population for at least the next 20 years.

We should plan accordingly.

100% agree.

[Louie]

No but guys…the eye test

[Omaha Cowboy]

No but guys…the eye test

Correct. I understand you can’t get past this LOL..

But Omaha is not doing as bad as it’d seem, and is not a friggen stunted metropolis either. Construction/development/jobs don’t lie..

Perhaps you’re actually seeing the light..

In any case, can and should Omaha do better and not rest on laurels? Of course. I’ve never said they should..

But the sky isn’t falling either…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Doctor Fate]

No but guys…the eye test

Correct. I understand you can’t get past this LOL..

But Omaha is not doing as bad as it’d seem, and is not a friggen stunted metropolis either. Construction/development/jobs don’t lie..

Perhaps you’re actually seeing the light..

In any case, can and should Omaha do better and not rest on laurels? Of course. I’ve never said they should..

But the sky isn’t falling either…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

I don't think Louie has ever said the sky is falling or that Omaha is doing bad. He's said that these stats are concerning, an area that Omaha needs to improve in, and is baffled (as are others) at how you and few others can dismiss the data. The report is saying that Omaha has significantly slower job growth than peer cities, NOT slow job grow in general. This is something Omaha needs to do better in to move ahead of competitor cities. The statistical model(s) in the studies have high validity, having been rigorously tested and reviewed, and have been standardized since going live. These are high fidelity statistics that have meaning.

The eye test is completely subjective and only takes into account one level of impact, the surface level of what is "observed". There are a lot more layers to what this report is saying.

1. Omaha's population is growing (mainly due to immigration, which is decreasing) but population growth doesn't equal economic growth and Omaha's economic growth has significantly dropped compared to peer cities (just like job growth). Omaha needs more high-paying jobs to strengthen and diversify the economy and its growth.

2. Strong residential construction is often is response to past identified needs. So maybe there was housing shortage in the past or developers are trying to build for future growth. Residential construction doesn't have any much of a correlation to job growth.

3. Omaha's peer cities (again, this is all about comparison to Omaha's peer cities) have strong high-growth and high-tech jobs that help drive their fast and diverse job and economic growth. Omaha's peer cities are nationally branded (or getting there) as tech hubs while Omaha is not. Tech companies attract more high growth and high paying job industries.

I think the bottom line to what Louie and others are saying is that Omaha's job growth hasn't collapsed and they certainly aren't saying it's

a sky is falling, chicken little rhetoric.

They're simply saying that the Aksarben Foundation report has pointed out an area we need to improve in greatly if we want to keep up with, if not move past, our peers. Some cities are walking backwards, some are walking, Omaha is jogging, and some are sprinting.

[Omaha Cowboy]

I believe it’s best to be brief..

Do I dismiss the reports data? No. Do I have an issue with the sky is falling rhetoric attached to it from the data creators? Yes.

Have I ever stated Omaha should rest on its laurels and not take the data seriously? No..

The eye test simply means, looking at the impressive and expansive amount of development going on across the Omaha metro belies that Omaha is simply a “jogger” as you say and resting on its laurels..

Jobs are available to be had here, the trick is, getting those job prospects here for a visit. That’s key..

My life experience, which has never failed me, is simply this- when things are “bad” they’re never quite as bad as they seem..When things are going “great”, they likely still have warts..

Omaha is not a stunted metropolis circa 1980.. It’s currently growing, evolving and coming into it’s own..I think we can all agree..

Let’s celebrate that reality while we forge ahead for a better Omaha..

I’m done “bickering” about this..but I appreciate everyone’s passion for a better, more vibrant Omaha…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Brad]

We had on Mike Cassling Chairman of Aksarben Foundation Board of Governors today to discuss this topic.

[almighty_tuna]

Decent segment as somewhat of a background/explainer on the report, but something Mike said really stood out to me. Paraphrasing, he said many jobs considered not the first job out of college but the second, third, etc higher paying career-oriented jobs have moved to Austin, Denver, KC, and the like - larger cities. Mike emphasized the need to bring those jobs "back to Nebraska."

All of this is predicated on a model where jobs are where the employees are, and that's no longer reliable. Nebraska has no visible strategy to bring people here in a non-RTO capacity or really in any form other than forcing people to be here through the type of job. "if we force people to be in an office then they can't leave Omaha, muahahaha!"

So where's the growth base? Manufacturing? Agriculture? We can't "farm harder" - there's a finite quantity of land. Manufacturing post-covid is on the decline nationwide and the current political climate has only made that worse.

Come to Nebraska where we have a $400M budget deficit. A place where you can vote for and pass issues important to the public but the laws to follow through are disingenuous at best. Our state legislature has activated the brain trust to pass a low that lowers the minimum wage for younger workers - despite an overwhelming vote by Nebraskans to raise minimum wages. So move to Nebraska so your kids can be cheap labor.

Why would people choose to move to Omaha/Lincoln to LIVE even if their job/office wasn't based here? Our state leadership primarily, state senators included, have done nearly nothing to incentivize voluntary migration. Mike Cassling is right when he says we need more Nebraska-based jobs. But we also simply need more people in Nebraska and are failing miserably to create an environment where people want to be here.

[locoluke]

Decent segment as somewhat of a background/explainer on the report, but something Mike said really stood out to me. Paraphrasing, he said many jobs considered not the first job out of college but the second, third, etc higher paying career-oriented jobs have moved to Austin, Denver, KC, and the like - larger cities. Mike emphasized the need to bring those jobs "back to Nebraska."

All of this is predicated on a model where jobs are where the employees are, and that's no longer reliable. Nebraska has no visible strategy to bring people here in a non-RTO capacity or really in any form other than forcing people to be here through the type of job. "if we force people to be in an office then they can't leave Omaha, muahahaha!"

So where's the growth base? Manufacturing? Agriculture? We can't "farm harder" - there's a finite quantity of land. Manufacturing post-covid is on the decline nationwide and the current political climate has only made that worse.

Come to Nebraska where we have a $400M budget deficit. A place where you can vote for and pass issues important to the public but the laws to follow through are disingenuous at best. Our state legislature has activated the brain trust to pass a low that lowers the minimum wage for younger workers - despite an overwhelming vote by Nebraskans to raise minimum wages. So move to Nebraska so your kids can be cheap labor.

Why would people choose to move to Omaha/Lincoln to LIVE even if their job/office wasn't based here? Our state leadership primarily, state senators included, have done nearly nothing to incentivize voluntary migration. Mike Cassling is right when he says we need more Nebraska-based jobs. But we also simply need more people in Nebraska and are failing miserably to create an environment where people want to be here.

The Chamber's 2024 Young Professionals Survey Report agrees with basically everything you said. On page 19, it shows 58% of those surveyed believe they'd have to leave Nebraska in order to get a promotion within their organization. The other big negatives among those surveyed appear to be poor transit/walkability, a lack of inclusiveness, and high housing costs.

[Louie]

Well said, tuna

[riceweb]

Decent segment as somewhat of a background/explainer on the report, but something Mike said really stood out to me. Paraphrasing, he said many jobs considered not the first job out of college but the second, third, etc higher paying career-oriented jobs have moved to Austin, Denver, KC, and the like - larger cities.

I mean, yes, but there's nothing we can do to reverse this. The market has spoken.

There's a chance that a place like Nebraska can ride a future wave of "nearshoring" when/if offshoring to places like India become less viable, but those jobs will still not be up to the standard that posters here are looking for.

And BTW, even KC doesn't get any/many of these jobs. And even Dallas and Houston which are FAR larger job markets than Austin have largely missed out on all the tech jobs that ended up in Austin. The market is really weird the way it centralizes and fixates on a handful of cities.

If I were forced to suggest a strategy, I'd say we should focus on something like nuclear energy: build up a huge supply of energy to attract data centers and manufacturing with cheap energy, and use nuclear energy as a way of attracting top engineers to the state. And in the meantime continue to focus on supporting/facilitating UNMC in any way we can while building out green corridors with interesting parks throughout the city. But we're so far from much of that right now.

[Nebraska>Iowa]

Another informative article. It's critical for citizens, business leaders and elected officials to be aware so action items can be taken.

To clarify, the sky IS NOT falling, but Nebraska needs to become more competitive!

https://www.omahamagazine.com/business/ ... es-alarms/

[ita]

New data confirms Omaha struggles with wages and jobs as the Greater Omaha Chamber rallies for the city at its annual meeting

I thought this is an interesting quote from our governor:

“Water in Nebraska runs from west to east. The economy, money, runs from the east to the west,” Pillen said. “I understood at a very young age: money came from Omaha and it went west. And the better the water flows, the more there’s here in Omaha, and it’s better for everybody in the state of Nebraska. I hope that makes sense.”

Hopefully, this is a signal that he won't intentionally kneecap growth in Omaha.

[Nebraska>Iowa]

New data confirms Omaha struggles with wages and jobs as the Greater Omaha Chamber rallies for the city at its annual meeting

I thought this is an interesting quote from our governor:

“Water in Nebraska runs from west to east. The economy, money, runs from the east to the west,” Pillen said. “I understood at a very young age: money came from Omaha and it went west. And the better the water flows, the more there’s here in Omaha, and it’s better for everybody in the state of Nebraska. I hope that makes sense.”

Hopefully, this is a signal that he won't intentionally kneecap growth in Omaha.

Indeed. Maybe he's seeing the light. Both rural and urban are critical the the entire state's success.

[Erik]

I was honestly giving up hope. The governor has to act on that thought, this how the state can get the rural clinics and schools etc.

Let the cities grow and "trickle down" to the farms

[almighty_tuna]

I thought this is an interesting quote from our governor:

“Water in Nebraska runs from west to east. The economy, money, runs from the east to the west,” Pillen said. “I understood at a very young age: money came from Omaha and it went west. And the better the water flows, the more there’s here in Omaha, and it’s better for everybody in the state of Nebraska. I hope that makes sense.”

Hopefully, this is a signal that he won't intentionally kneecap growth in Omaha.

Ah, sounds like someone has realized he has to suck up for some votes in November.

[ita]

I thought this is an interesting quote from our governor:

“Water in Nebraska runs from west to east. The economy, money, runs from the east to the west,” Pillen said. “I understood at a very young age: money came from Omaha and it went west. And the better the water flows, the more there’s here in Omaha, and it’s better for everybody in the state of Nebraska. I hope that makes sense.”

Hopefully, this is a signal that he won't intentionally kneecap growth in Omaha.

Ah, sounds like someone has realized he has to suck up for some votes in November.

Haha, very likely that this is the case, but I hope it's not just that.

[OverlookedFarm]

What is to blame is the loss of manufacturing. Simply put, the value (and thus jobs) has to be created within the physical borders of the state to move the needle.

For a while, I worked in outside sales that called on industrial customers. During that 10 year period, the amount of businesses that have simply closed, retired, outmoded, uprooted and left, sold out to a big national competitor or offshored. Bossman kept saying "Where's your revenue growth?" I said "It retired and son won't come out of his CODpod"

Shoes on the other foot now, and the folks that do my old job call on me. They all agree, and echo the same: Nothing is made here and the loss of manufacturing is a major problem. We no longer have a balanced, diverse and resilient economy in Omaha. We are basically one big regional medical center if you think of it.

A service based economy, which the Omaha area devolved to, is flimsy and can vanish in an instant, taking jobs with it. It also does not distinguish us from other cities.

Right, wrong or indifferent, Omaha was hurt when they couldn't land BMW, Micron, etc at the time other big industry was winding down (Vickers, Western Electric, Swanson, Fallstaff, ASARCO, etc). That's not to take away from the fact other states and literally giving the farm away with incentives. Think about what NE did to lure Conagra..... How has that worked out?

Occasionally I cruise google maps looking to see if my customers still exist. More and more don't, and nothing of substance has replaced them. You can't swing a dead cat in an industrial district without hitting multiple vacancies or misuse of zoning. Very, very rarely do I see a new manufacturer show up. And if they do, it's very, very small.

After the philanthropic boomers wind down their community giving, Omaha is going to be in a world of hurt as we rely on more and more government action to lure or keep business.

The North Omaha industrial park is a step the right direction, but will require more key elements to make it successful.

[Erik]

So how do we cut taxes such levels and not become Texas or Oklahoma in education, infrastructure, poverty etc?

I see lots of demands and absolutely no methods of maintaining what has been historically the only positive growth pattern in the states history. All I see is bellyaching about paying our fair share for what has given us the kind of living standard we have grown accustomed to

So i have to ask, what do we cut? Who is going to be the lamb going to the slaughter?

Why pay anything in taxes? Just cut education and infrastructure altogether and be happy for a decade, then whine when the youngest generation is as capable as a commoner in a third-world country (like Texas and Oklahoma).

I say F that. We got to pay a little to maintain a semi-functional population.

At the end of the day, if we trash our institutions to gain a couple more people or jobs, we deserve what we get.

[Louie]

So how do we cut taxes such levels and not become Texas or Oklahoma in education, infrastructure, poverty etc?

I see lots of demands and absolutely no methods of maintaining what has been historically the only positive growth pattern in the states history. All I see is bellyaching about paying our fair share for what has given us the kind of living standard we have grown accustomed to

What is the pattern that has caused the positive growth in your opinion?

[Erik]

So how do we cut taxes such levels and not become Texas or Oklahoma in education, infrastructure, poverty etc?

I see lots of demands and absolutely no methods of maintaining what has been historically the only positive growth pattern in the states history. All I see is bellyaching about paying our fair share for what has given us the kind of living standard we have grown accustomed to

What is the pattern that has caused the positive growth in your opinion?

Reliable schools that paved way to higher education, which led to a very educated public with lower crime rates, entrepreneurship abilities, extra leftover to entice expansions into the area.

You decimate our schools, institutions, you end the very pipeline of quality decisions and growth that has driven our region for decades.

Low taxes and poor schools/institutions will not lead to better outcomes. It never has.

[Louie]

So how do we cut taxes such levels and not become Texas or Oklahoma in education, infrastructure, poverty etc?

I see lots of demands and absolutely no methods of maintaining what has been historically the only positive growth pattern in the states history. All I see is bellyaching about paying our fair share for what has given us the kind of living standard we have grown accustomed to

What is the pattern that has caused the positive growth in your opinion?

Reliable schools that paved way to higher education, which led to a very educated public with lower crime rates, entrepreneurship abilities, extra leftover revenue to entice expansions into the area.

You decimate our schools, institutions, you end the very pipeline of quality decisions, entrepreneurship and growth that has driven our region for decades.

Low taxes and poor schools/institutions will not lead to better outcomes. It rarely has.

Ok, cool, I mean I'm on board with that 100%. Just was vague in your first comment so I was confirming for clarity.

[Erik]

So how do we cut taxes such levels and not become Texas or Oklahoma in education, infrastructure, poverty etc?

I see lots of demands and absolutely no methods of maintaining what has been historically the only positive growth pattern in the states history. All I see is bellyaching about paying our fair share for what has given us the kind of living standard we have grown accustomed to

What is the pattern that has caused the positive growth in your opinion?

Reliable schools that paved way to higher education, which led to a very educated public with lower crime rates, entrepreneurship abilities, extra leftover revenue to entice expansions into the area.

You decimate our schools, institutions, you end the very pipeline of quality decisions, entrepreneurship and growth that has driven our region for decades.

Low taxes and poor schools/institutions will not lead to better outcomes. It rarely has.

Ok, cool, I mean I'm on board with that 100%. Just was vague in your first comment so I was confirming for clarity.

I have a very bad habit of this. I have to do better lol