Urban NERDS Unite! It's coming...

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Fri Mar 04, 2016 4:50 pm

Yes friends, it's that time of the year again- in basically 2 weeks (03/20/2016) the 2015 metro and CSA population estimates will be released by the US Census. To reshresh our memories, the 2014 estimates last year for Omaha (and I'm rounding) were 904,000+ metro and 941,000+ CSA..

Here is the thread we can provide our predictions and see who ends up getting closest..

For me, I'm landing on the more ambitious side- I predict the 2015 Omaha metro population will be 916,500 and the CSA moving to 954,000 thousand.. Omaha inching closer and closer to 1 million..

Your predictions are welcome and needed!..

...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Post by **BRoss** » Sat Mar 05, 2016 9:35 am

I'm going to go with 915,000

Erik · Post by **Erik** » Sat Mar 05, 2016 12:13 pm

913,000 and 950,000. The usual underestimate by the US census for the metro numbers.

Athomsfere · Post by **Athomsfere** » Sun Mar 06, 2016 8:36 am

Wait, I thought Omaha basically had just the MSA? What does the Omaha CSA add that isn't in the MSA (until Lincoln is in the CSA at least).

Either way, I my charts based off the average of the last 4 years:

year change % pop yoy growth #
2014 2.3 446,599
2015 2.3 456,871 10,272
2016 2.3 467,379 10,508
2017 2.3 478,129 10,750
2018 2.3 489,125 10,997
2019 2.3 500,375 11,250
2020 2.3 511,884 11,509

MSA
2014 1.125 904,421 39,071
2015 1.125 914,596 10,175
2016 1.125 924,885 10,289
2017 1.125 935,290 10,405
2018 1.125 945,812 10,522
2019 1.125 956,452 10,640
2020 1.125 967,212 10,760

So I'll take the optimistic route and over-estimate?
Omaha proper: 457,111
MSA: 915,866

Also, if the averages hold up: Fun bit. Omaha MSA will pass the KC MSA in population in 2250 with 12,676,075 to 12,658,581. Only 235 years to go!

guy4omaha · Post by **guy4omaha** » Sun Mar 06, 2016 11:35 am

The CSA adds Dodge County including Fremont. I believe that is it.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Sun Mar 06, 2016 11:38 am

Athomsfere wrote:Wait, I thought Omaha basically had just the MSA? What does the Omaha CSA add that isn't in the MSA (until Lincoln is in the CSA

Omaha's CSA adds Dodge county (Fremont) and the CSA estimate last year was 941,165- FYI..

I'm beginning to dim on my hope that the Lincoln metro would be included and we have a combined Omaha-Lincoln CSA.. But I still keep my fingers crossed that it may happen..

I like everyone's projections. Keep 'em coming

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Ciao..LiO...Peace

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Sun Mar 06, 2016 11:40 am

guy4omaha wrote:The CSA adds Dodge County including Fremont. I believe that is it.

You are correct. Great minds answer alike.. And at the same time

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Ciao..LiO...Peace

MTO · Post by **MTO** » Sun Mar 06, 2016 12:10 pm

And while considering our metro pop why anyone would lop of Fremont is beyond me. I loath our MSA, CSA all the way for me. The closer we get to one million the more anguish I feel because we are damn close. Most metros around our size aren't growing as fast so we'll be jumping some other MSAs CSAs soon. Aren't we just about 6% short of local cars crossing the Platte daily from being combined with Lincoln?

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Sun Mar 06, 2016 2:26 pm

I don't know what that % is today (perhaps someone has the most current Intel).. But I know a combined Omaha-Lincoln CSA would put the population number to 1,261,000 according to last years estimates..

I've been saying for about the last 12 years or so, Omaha actually functions like a million plus population metro. Even though the "official" tally doesn't reflect it, the fact is 1.3 million people live within a 50 mile radius of downtown Omaha...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

iamjacobm · Post by **iamjacobm** » Sun Mar 06, 2016 8:14 pm

Not sure it will show up on this estimate, but single family homes went up at an insane pace last year, highest since the pre-recession boom. I think we had pretty strong growth this last year.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Sun Mar 06, 2016 8:24 pm

iamjacobm wrote:Not sure it will show up on this estimate, but single family homes went up at an insane pace last year, highest since the pre-recession boom. I think we had pretty strong growth this last year.

Good point.. We're likely to see the fruits of that growth next year for the 2016 estimate. I'm still optimistic that we can see the numbers % nudge a bit higher for this upcoming 2015 estimate

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Ciao..LiO...Peace

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Tue Mar 15, 2016 11:25 am

We're less than a week away from the release of the new 2015 metro population estimates. Anyone else have any predictions for Omaha, Lincoln or any other city?...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Athomsfere · Post by **Athomsfere** » Tue Mar 15, 2016 8:57 pm

Bah, you're killing me! I saw an update and thought maybe christmas came early!

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Tue Mar 15, 2016 11:37 pm

Athomsfere wrote:Bah, you're killing me! I saw an update and thought maybe christmas came early!

Sorry my friend, lol. Just giving this thread a little bump to see if anyone else wants to throw in a prediction..

...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Garrett · Post by **Garrett** » Wed Mar 16, 2016 10:26 am

Let's go with.... 914,500 and 951,000

iamjacobm · Post by **iamjacobm** » Sat Mar 19, 2016 7:28 pm

CSA shouldn't have much more raw growth than the MSA. Fremont is stagnant.

MTO · Post by **MTO** » Mon Mar 21, 2016 9:20 am

If you want to pick the prettiest stats go with individual suburbs or county growth.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Mon Mar 21, 2016 10:38 pm

Just an update.. It seems our Omaha MSA "low balling" buddies at the Census Bureau, won't be releasing the 2015 estimates until this Friday or Monday. I was lead to believe we'd have them today..

*sigh*...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

iamjacobm · Post by **iamjacobm** » Mon Mar 21, 2016 10:40 pm

Omaha Cowboy wrote:Just an update.. It seems our Omaha MSA "low balling" buddies at the Census Bureau, won't be releasing the 2015 estimates until this Friday or Monday. I was lead to believe we'd have them today..

*sigh*...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

I read something today that said the media would get access tomorrow and the general public on Thursday.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Mon Mar 21, 2016 10:43 pm

iamjacobm wrote:
Omaha Cowboy wrote:Just an update.. It seems our Omaha MSA "low balling" buddies at the Census Bureau, won't be releasing the 2015 estimates until this Friday or Monday. I was lead to believe we'd have them today..

*sigh*...

Ciao..LiO...Peace
I read something today that said the media would get access tomorrow and the general public on Thursday.

Man, I hope so.. The sooner the better. Thanks for that Intel

...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

iamjacobm · Post by **iamjacobm** » Mon Mar 21, 2016 10:48 pm

http://news.yahoo.com/u-census-bureau-c ... 00386.html

U R my Helix · Post by **U R my Helix** » Tue Mar 22, 2016 1:18 pm

Leave it to the government to create an embargo site for these numbers. What purpose does a two day embargo serve?

"The U.S. Census Bureau will offer an embargo period for members of the media to view the latest population estimates for counties, metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas, and Puerto Rico municipios."

daveoma · Post by **daveoma** » Tue Mar 22, 2016 9:27 pm

U R my Helix wrote:Leave it to the government to create an embargo site for these numbers. What purpose does a two day embargo serve?

"The U.S. Census Bureau will offer an embargo period for members of the media to view the latest population estimates for counties, metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas, and Puerto Rico municipios."

Any members of congress own stock in media companies?

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Tue Mar 22, 2016 10:48 pm

U R my Helix wrote:Leave it to the government to create an embargo site for these numbers. What purpose does a two day embargo serve?

"The U.S. Census Bureau will offer an embargo period for members of the media to view the latest population estimates for counties, metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas, and Puerto Rico municipios."

I agree. Just release the doggone numbers and let us statistics freaks geek out..

Dang!

...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Athomsfere · Post by **Athomsfere** » Wed Mar 23, 2016 7:45 pm

If Omaha/ Lincoln become a CSA will we also learn this tomorrow? Or is that only during an official census?

MTO · Post by **MTO** » Wed Mar 23, 2016 11:32 pm

There's a great article in the paper about this.

MTO · Post by **MTO** » Wed Mar 23, 2016 11:34 pm

We overtook Albuquerque

iamjacobm · Post by **iamjacobm** » Wed Mar 23, 2016 11:49 pm

MTO wrote:We overtook Albuquerque

Eat it Walt.

Linkin5 · Post by **Linkin5** » Thu Mar 24, 2016 12:01 am

HR Paperstacks wrote:I'm going to go with 915,000

Looks like you're the closest, 312 off!

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Thu Mar 24, 2016 12:03 am

Omaha MSA for 2015 hits 915,312.. And moves past Albuquerque, NM as the 59th largest metro..

Omaha adds nearly 11,000 to the metro in 1 year..and 50,000 since 2010. Very impressive growth. More numbers, including the Omaha CSA to come. Feel free to add in on the discussion

...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

iamjacobm · Post by **iamjacobm** » Thu Mar 24, 2016 12:14 am

Looks like 58 could be the topping out point for the foreseeable future. Omaha should catch Worchester in a few more years, but the Metros from 57-50 all have strong growth and or a big head start.

Kinda surprised ABQ's growth isn't stronger.

iamjacobm · Post by **iamjacobm** » Thu Mar 24, 2016 12:23 am

Other things of interest. Douglas and Lancaster should each get one more seat in the unicam. Pushing the urban influence even further.

Lincoln at 323,578

Also the strong growth in Douglas is really encouraging.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Thu Mar 24, 2016 7:21 am

Adding in Dodge county, the 2015 Omaha CSA estimate is- 952,018...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

OmahaJaysCU · Post by **OmahaJaysCU** » Thu Mar 24, 2016 7:53 am

Is there a link to the actual numbers and rankings?

Post by **BRoss** » Thu Mar 24, 2016 7:55 am

Linkin5 wrote:
HR Paperstacks wrote:I'm going to go with 915,000
Looks like you're the closest, 312 off!

Damn, knew I should have added a few hundred in there.

Well one more step on the Road to a Million!

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Thu Mar 24, 2016 8:04 am

OmahaJaysCU wrote:Is there a link to the actual numbers and rankings?

Not that I've seen as of yet. You have to add the county components of the MSA and CSA's to come up with the numbers. I'm sure an MSA and CSA chart will be available on the US Census website sometime soon. As of now, it's not...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Thu Mar 24, 2016 8:11 am

Athomsfere wrote:If Omaha/ Lincoln become a CSA will we also learn this tomorrow? Or is that only during an official census?

Not necessarily. The last time the US Census announced an MSA/CSA component change was 2013. That year, for example, the US Census decided to combine the Des Moines and Ames,IA MSA's into a combined CSA.. Which boosted their CSA number up to 700,000 overnight.. I've always looked at the CSA number as a "feel good" stat anyway. Even if/when the US Census decides to combine the Omaha and Lincoln MSA's into a combined CSA, I still think the MSA number is the more important, realistic gage..

Based off these 2015 estimates, a Omaha/Lincoln CSA would be squarely at 1.3 million...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Thu Mar 24, 2016 8:14 am

Here are how Omaha looks vs some Iowa metros: 2014 and 2015 numbers and increase by %

Omaha-CB: 905,267 915,312 1.1%
Lincoln: 319,840 323,578 1.2%
Grand Island: 84,751 85,066 .4%
Des Moines: 612,156 622,899 1.7%
Quad Cities: 383,995 383,606 (.1%)
Cedar Rapids: 263,974 266,040 .8%
Iowa City: 164,508 166,498 1.2%
Waterloo-Cedar Falls: 170,096 170,612 .3%
Sioux City: 168,857 169,069 .1%
Dubuque: 96,587 97,125 .6%
Ames: 95,456 96,021 .6%
Sioux Falls, SD: 248,062 251,854 1.5%

Edit: added Lincoln, Grand Island and Sioux Falls, SD.

Post by **nebugeater** » Thu Mar 24, 2016 8:39 am

Nice comparison. Can you edit and add Lincoln in there?

skinzfan23 wrote:Here are how Omaha looks vs some Iowa metros: 2014 and 2015 numbers and increase by %

Omaha-CB: 905,267 915,312 1.1%
Des Moines: 612,156 622,899 1.7%
Quad Cities: 383,995 383,606 (.1%)
Cedar Rapids: 263,974 266,040 .8%
Iowa City: 164,508 166,498 1.2%
Waterloo-Cedar Falls: 170,096 170,612 .3%
Sioux City: 168,857 169,069 .1%
Dubuque: 96,587 97,125 .6%
Ames: 95,456 96,021 .6%

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Thu Mar 24, 2016 9:43 am

FYI- the tables for all MSA/CSA and micropolitan areas with full numbers for all are up now..

Go to- Census.gov

For a numbers geek like me, today is "hog heaven"

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Ciao..LiO...Peace