It’s that time of year again- 2017 Metro population estimates coming officially on 3/22/18

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Sun Mar 04, 2018 11:44 pm

Yes friends..

If you’re a statistics nut like me, this is one of my favorite times of the year..

What are your predictions for the Omaha MSA and CSA for 2017, and other regional metropolises?..

Post ‘em here

...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Sun Mar 04, 2018 11:57 pm

I’ll kick this off-

As our point of reference, Omaha's 2016 estimates were- 924,129 for the MSA and 960,886 for the CSA..

My 2017 predictions for the Big O- 935,500 MSA and 972,500 CSA...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Silverspoon · Post by **Silverspoon** » Mon Mar 05, 2018 5:54 pm

Omaha - 945,001

Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Mon Mar 05, 2018 7:42 pm

932,337 and 968,381

Post by **BRoss** » Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:01 pm

934,174 & 972,526

Edit: meant 972k for CSA, not 982k

Garrett · Post by **Garrett** » Tue Mar 06, 2018 8:34 am

1 person!!!!

In all seriousness.... 934,029 and 970,819. You gotta remember that whatever growth comes in the CSA that isn't in the MSA is coming exclusively from Dodge County, which has only added 60 people since 2010.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Tue Mar 06, 2018 12:35 pm

Nice predictions thus far my friends. Keep ‘em coming..

I thought I’d also include this- just in case someone is wondering what 'MSA' and 'CSA' stands for, here is a quick fingertip reference:

The CSA stands for Consolidated Statistical Area..A county is added into an MSA (Metroplitan Statistical Area) if 25% of it's county residents commute into the primary county of the MSA..In Omaha's case that, of course, would be Douglas County..The additonal county added into Omaha's 8 county MSA to make it our 9 county CSA is Dodge County..Home to the city of Fremont...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Wed Mar 07, 2018 8:07 am

937k and 971k

GetUrban · Post by **GetUrban** » Wed Mar 07, 2018 9:39 am

927,825 MSA
964,729 CSA

guy4omaha · Post by **guy4omaha** » Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:00 pm

Ok I will play. I can be just as wrong, if not more so, as everyone else.

931, 522 MSA
968,247 CSA

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:45 pm

That’s the fun part of this for me every year..no one is ever “exactly right”. It’s just whomever has the closest best guess, lol..

And ultimately, until we get the next “official” US Census in 2020, these are just “official” census estimates. Sometimes they’re close. Sometimes they lowball etc.. But it’s always fun to predict then see how close each of us get..

One other variable I had heard last year, is that at some point this year, the US Census was going to look into and redefine certain MSA’s and CSA’s. This probably won’t happen before the estimates are released on March 22nd.. But likely could happen at some point this summer or fall. And this could affect Omaha and Lincoln. In order for 2 MSA’s to combine, the commuter % between the primary counties in each metro- in this case Douglas and Lancaster, must reach 15%. Back in 2006-2007, an Omaha and Lincoln delegation who traveled to Washington DC to have the possibility looked into, came away empty handed as the percentage back then was about 7%. I feel, strongly, that today, that % is either very close to or right at that 15% number..and if this is the case, we could see a combined Omaha-Lincoln CSA before the end of this year..

We shall see on that...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

TitosBuritoBarn · Post by **TitosBuritoBarn** » Wed Mar 07, 2018 5:31 pm

938k and 974k

mgoett · Post by **mgoett** » Wed Mar 07, 2018 8:34 pm

940 and 980

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:58 pm

Here we go. In exactly 24 hours from now, the 2017 estimates will be released. Time to get your last minute Omaha MSA/CSA predictions in! From the US Census:

“FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: TUESDAY, MARCH 13, 2018

MARCH 13, 2018 — The U.S. Census Bureau will offer an embargo period next week for media to view the 2017 population estimates for counties, metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas, and Puerto Rico municipios.

The statistics will be posted to the Census Bureau’s embargo site at 10 a.m. (EDT) on Tuesday, March 20, for public release at 12:01 a.m. (EDT) on Thursday, March 22. Wire and distribution services are prohibited from distributing embargoed news stories and data files to subscribers before the public release date an time.”..

The link-

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-r ... mates.html

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Post by **BRoss** » Wed Mar 21, 2018 9:16 pm

Omaha Cowboy wrote:Here we go. In exactly 24 hours from now, the 2017 estimates will be released.

Looking forward to this! If I have time, I'll put together some tables like I did a couple years ago.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Wed Mar 21, 2018 10:22 pm

HR Paperstacks wrote:
Omaha Cowboy wrote:Here we go. In exactly 24 hours from now, the 2017 estimates will be released.
Looking forward to this! If I have time, I'll put together some tables like I did a couple years ago.

That would be excellent! Those tables were fantastic a couple years ago. I know it’s a lot of work, but if only you have time

...

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Wed Mar 21, 2018 11:12 pm

Here Is an early article from the W-H:

“The Omaha-Council Bluffs metro area continues its steady climb toward a 1 million population, posting another year of solid growth that has it on the verge of moving up..

The latest population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau indicate that the metro area added 9,300 residents between 2016 and 2017, right at its average for the decade, to reach a population of 933,000.

The metro area’s 8 percent growth rate this decade ranked 42nd among the nation’s 100 largest metro areas. Not only did that growth keep Omaha on track to reach 1 million by 2024 or 2025, but it’s also possible that Omaha could surpass two other metro areas before the decade is out, said David Drozd, a demographer for the University of Nebraska at Omaha’s Center for Public Affairs Research.”..

The link-

http://www.omaha.com/news/plus/omaha-me ... 29990.html

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Wed Mar 21, 2018 11:14 pm

So the 2017 Omaha MSA estimate is 933,000 adding 9300 over the past year.. Lincoln 332,000 and Des Moines 646,000..

More to follow...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

MTO · Post by **MTO** » Thu Mar 22, 2018 4:32 am

That’s excluding Fremont, what’s the CSA?

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Thu Mar 22, 2018 7:48 am

Okay, after going to Cleveland.com, which has an interactive county population map, here is the official 2017 Omaha estimates:

Omaha MSA- 933,316 (924,129 for 2016) plus 9,187
Omaha CSA- 970,023 (960,886 for 2016) plus 9,137..

Here is the Cleveland.com link-

http://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/in ... onall.html

Continued healthy growth for greater Omaha

...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:14 am

More encouraging news, is that every county in the 8 County Omaha MSA and 9 County Omaha CSA had plus growth..except for Pottawattamie County Iowa which had a slight .01% decrease of 122 people from the 2016 estimate-

2017 Omaha MSA/CSA county population numbers-

Douglas- 561,620
Sarpy- 181,439
Pottawattamie- 93,386
Dodge- 36,707 (added for the 9 County Omaha CSA)
Cass- 25,889
Saunders- 21,057
Washington- 20,721
Mills- 15,068
Harrison- 14,136...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Bob from Omaha · Post by **Bob from Omaha** » Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:35 am

So the Omaha-Lincoln BACSA(Big |expletive| CSA) stands at 1,301,542

Garrett · Post by **Garrett** » Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:43 am

Omaha Cowboy wrote:Okay, after going to Cleveland.com, which has an interactive county population map, here is the official 2017 Omaha estimates:

Omaha MSA- 933,316 (924,129 for 2016) plus 9,187
Omaha CSA- 970,023 (960,886 for 2016) plus 9,137..

Here is the Cleveland.com link-

http://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/in ... onall.html

Continued healthy growth for greater Omaha ...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

So since I had the closest estimate... what do I win????

iamjacobm · Post by **iamjacobm** » Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:48 am

You get to move to Fremont to help their dismal growth!

Garrett · Post by **Garrett** » Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:53 am

iamjacobm wrote:You get to move to Fremont to help their dismal growth!

Cook County lost 20,093 people and Chicagoland as a whole lost 13,286. We need all the help we can get!

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-r ... ounty.html

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Thu Mar 22, 2018 9:00 am

Garrett wrote:
iamjacobm wrote:You get to move to Fremont to help their dismal growth!
Cook County lost 20,093 people and Chicagoland as a whole lost 13,286. We need all the help we can get!

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-r ... ounty.html

I read about the Chicago metro population loss. I wonder if the “murder Capital” reputation hurts their growth to some degree..

Regarding the Omaha area- instead of Fremont (Dodge County) which did have plus growth, your prize, Garrett, will be to move to Council Bluffs to help offset Pottawattamie county’s 122 person population loss over the past year..

Congrats!

...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Garrett · Post by **Garrett** » Thu Mar 22, 2018 9:08 am

Omaha Cowboy wrote:
Garrett wrote:
iamjacobm wrote:You get to move to Fremont to help their dismal growth!
Cook County lost 20,093 people and Chicagoland as a whole lost 13,286. We need all the help we can get!

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-r ... ounty.html
I read about the Chicago metro population loss. I wonder if the “murder Capital” reputation hurts their growth to some degree..

Regarding the Omaha area- instead of Fremont (Dodge County) which did have plus growth, your prize, Garrett, will be to move to Council Bluffs to help offset Pottawattamie county’s 122 person population loss over the past year..

Congrats! ...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

The violence is certainly part of it. Largely I think it's mostly black people moving either to the suburbs or to sunbelt cities out from both gentrifying and violent neighborhoods. Also the struggle with the budget since Gov. Rauner took office have made things worse. I'll actually be moving away within the next few months myself to pursue some strong opportunities I have in New York.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Thu Mar 22, 2018 9:28 am

Garrett wrote:
Omaha Cowboy wrote:
Garrett wrote:
iamjacobm wrote:You get to move to Fremont to help their dismal growth!
Cook County lost 20,093 people and Chicagoland as a whole lost 13,286. We need all the help we can get!

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-r ... ounty.html
I read about the Chicago metro population loss. I wonder if the “murder Capital” reputation hurts their growth to some degree..

Regarding the Omaha area- instead of Fremont (Dodge County) which did have plus growth, your prize, Garrett, will be to move to Council Bluffs to help offset Pottawattamie county’s 122 person population loss over the past year..

Congrats! ...

Ciao..LiO...Peace
The violence is certainly part of it. Largely I think it's mostly black people moving either to the suburbs or to sunbelt cities out from both gentrifying and violent neighborhoods. Also the struggle with the budget since Gov. Rauner took office have made things worse. I'll actually be moving away within the next few months myself to pursue some strong opportunities I have in New York.

Hey- Congrats on the new opportunity in New York

..

And I agree regarding Chicagoland and it’s exodus of people (although it’s not critical, I see it as a bit unhealthy).. And their city budget has been mismanaged continually over a number of years from what I understand..

I’m really trying to gauge in my mind, in reality- based on the current level of growth, when the Omaha MSA only will hit 1 million. Based on the current 9200 per year population gain estimate, we’d be looking at 7 years- 2025, before the MSA hits I million. The CSA would hit the 1 million number in 3 or 4 years..

I’m still a little more optimistic that the Omaha metro will hit that magic number by 2023 or 2024...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Doctor Fate · Post by **Doctor Fate** » Thu Mar 22, 2018 10:19 am

Omaha Cowboy wrote:More encouraging news, is that every county in the 8 County Omaha MSA and 9 County Omaha CSA had plus growth..except for Pottawattamie County Iowa which had a slight .01% decrease of 122 people from the 2016 estimate-

2017 Omaha MSA/CSA county population numbers-

Douglas- 561,620
Sarpy- 181,439
Pottawattamie- 93,386
Dodge- 36,707 (added for the 9 County Omaha CSA)
Cass- 25,889
Saunders- 21,057
Washington- 20,721
Mills- 15,068
Harrison- 14,136...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

What is it that creates such slow growth in Council Bluffs?

buildomaha · Post by **buildomaha** » Thu Mar 22, 2018 10:33 am

CyborgKen wrote:
Omaha Cowboy wrote:More encouraging news, is that every county in the 8 County Omaha MSA and 9 County Omaha CSA had plus growth..except for Pottawattamie County Iowa which had a slight .01% decrease of 122 people from the 2016 estimate-

2017 Omaha MSA/CSA county population numbers-

Douglas- 561,620
Sarpy- 181,439
Pottawattamie- 93,386
Dodge- 36,707 (added for the 9 County Omaha CSA)
Cass- 25,889
Saunders- 21,057
Washington- 20,721
Mills- 15,068
Harrison- 14,136...

Ciao..LiO...Peace
What is it that creates such slow growth in Council Bluffs?

It doesn’t make a lot of sense. Who wouldn’t want access to the benefits of living in Iowa (better universities and other) while enjoying Omaha as well?

TitosBuritoBarn · Post by **TitosBuritoBarn** » Thu Mar 22, 2018 11:15 am

I moved away from Chicago last August, a month after the period for these numbers ended. Frankly I was happy enough in Chicago and was fine with putting up with the taxes and the politics to live in an otherwise amazing city. But the new wife (which I also acquired in August) had wanted to move to St. Louis, which is close to her hometown, for awhile after being in Chicago for 12 years. So we are now in St. Louis city, which fared even worse in population growth.

The media in Chicago has often found that the bulk of the population loss has been due to middle class African American families leaving for somewhere else, but the weather, taxes, and politics often come up as reasons too. I personally know a handful of people who have left recently. Having been involved in the world of Chicago improv for a number of years, some of those people left for New York or LA to try to advance their careers in entertainment. A former roommate left for grad school in Austin but is now moving on to an opportunity at one of the bigger tech firms in Silicon Valley and will reside in Oakland. Another friend moved to Memphis, which is where I believe their spouse is from; same story for another friend who moved to exurban Cincinnati (that one was kind of disappointing considering how nice Cincinnati is these days, but they just had kid number two and seem to be of the mind that multiple children require exurban living). Another moved back to Seattle where they went to college and lived for awhile after. One couple is planning a move to Minneapolis where one of the two is from.

---

The population numbers continue to be disappointing for the most part. Granted I don't know the full context of the numbers but I just don't see how some great places continue to see population exoduses while others boom. Dallas, for example. I just don't get it. It's booming but yet, as a city, it's never impressed me. It's the silver Toyota Corolla of cities. It's fine. There's nothing wrong with it (other than the absurd sprawl). But there's nothing particularly soul-stirring about it. And yet everyone seems to want to be there. I guess because it is so familiarly safe while somehow creating a name for itself?

TitosBuritoBarn · Post by **TitosBuritoBarn** » Thu Mar 22, 2018 11:24 am

buildomaha wrote:
CyborgKen wrote:
Omaha Cowboy wrote:More encouraging news, is that every county in the 8 County Omaha MSA and 9 County Omaha CSA had plus growth..except for Pottawattamie County Iowa which had a slight .01% decrease of 122 people from the 2016 estimate-

2017 Omaha MSA/CSA county population numbers-

Douglas- 561,620
Sarpy- 181,439
Pottawattamie- 93,386
Dodge- 36,707 (added for the 9 County Omaha CSA)
Cass- 25,889
Saunders- 21,057
Washington- 20,721
Mills- 15,068
Harrison- 14,136...

Ciao..LiO...Peace
What is it that creates such slow growth in Council Bluffs?
It doesn’t make a lot of sense. Who wouldn’t want access to the benefits of living in Iowa (better universities and other) while enjoying Omaha as well?

Stigma. Most Omahans only know Council Bluffs from driving through it or the casinos. The interstates and the casinos are not in the pretty parts of town.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:35 pm

TitosBuritoBarn wrote:
buildomaha wrote:
CyborgKen wrote:
Omaha Cowboy wrote:More encouraging news, is that every county in the 8 County Omaha MSA and 9 County Omaha CSA had plus growth..except for Pottawattamie County Iowa which had a slight .01% decrease of 122 people from the 2016 estimate-

2017 Omaha MSA/CSA county population numbers-

Douglas- 561,620
Sarpy- 181,439
Pottawattamie- 93,386
Dodge- 36,707 (added for the 9 County Omaha CSA)
Cass- 25,889
Saunders- 21,057
Washington- 20,721
Mills- 15,068
Harrison- 14,136...

Ciao..LiO...Peace
What is it that creates such slow growth in Council Bluffs?
It doesn’t make a lot of sense. Who wouldn’t want access to the benefits of living in Iowa (better universities and other) while enjoying Omaha as well?
Stigma. Most Omahans only know Council Bluffs from driving through it or the casinos. The interstates and the casinos are not in the pretty parts of town.

I think there is a lot of validity to this..

I also think the lure of the “big city” poaches a lot of western to central Iowa natives to the Omaha side of the river.. Most of it is career related. People tend to gravitate closer to where the job opportunities abound..

I have many friends who are Council Bluffs natives that once they graduated college..they moved into Omaha. I only know one person who grew up in Nebraska, but moved to CB..

All said, I think CB is a nice city and not deserving of it’s local stigma as “Council-Bluffs”...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:59 pm

TitosBuritoBarn wrote:Dallas, for example. I just don't get it. It's booming but yet, as a city, it's never impressed me. It's the silver Toyota Corolla of cities. It's fine. There's nothing wrong with it (other than the absurd sprawl). But there's nothing particularly soul-stirring about it. And yet everyone seems to want to be there. I guess because it is so familiarly safe while somehow creating a name for itself?

I can understand why you believe this. Many people I know have the same impression of Dallas after they visit..

Dallas has this national reputation as a Huge booming city with a big downtown skyline and just a mind blowing expansion of suburban sprawl. Some of this is VERY true..

But I’d stop short of calling it the “Toyota Corolla (or Camry) of cities”. Maybe it’s because I’ve spent so much time there. Last week, I was in Dallas visiting my sister and other relatives. My sis lives on the 17th floor of a 25 story high rise apartment building in the Oak Lawn district of Dallas. This section of the Big D can best be described as a diverse collection of many different types of people- young urban professionals to hipsters to alternative lifestyle.. you name it, it’s in Oak Lawn. It’s an upscale district but also very old and charming. The homes within the neighborhood, including many 70 year old mansions, remind me of Omaha’s Gold Coast and Joslyn neighborhoods on steroids. This area has MUCHO character and much soul..and there is definitely nothing vanilla about it..The diversity of businesses in the neighborhood are reflective of this as well.. It’s just flat out a cool place to visit and as my sister says, a cool place to live..

In the end, I can definitely see and understand why so many people are moving to DFW. But I think the opinion of it, like any other city, revolves around how much quality time you’ve spent in that city and where you happened to engage most of your time. For example, if you visited DFW on a business trip for a week and spent most of your time in Irving or Frisco TX (which are suburbs of Dallas), then you would definitely come away with the vanilla, endless sprawl, lack of soul or character impression..

The biggest complaint I have about Dallas, is their Bat sh!t crazy drivers. but that’s another discussion for another time

...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Garrett · Post by **Garrett** » Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:17 pm

CyborgKen wrote:
Omaha Cowboy wrote:More encouraging news, is that every county in the 8 County Omaha MSA and 9 County Omaha CSA had plus growth..except for Pottawattamie County Iowa which had a slight .01% decrease of 122 people from the 2016 estimate-

2017 Omaha MSA/CSA county population numbers-

Douglas- 561,620
Sarpy- 181,439
Pottawattamie- 93,386
Dodge- 36,707 (added for the 9 County Omaha CSA)
Cass- 25,889
Saunders- 21,057
Washington- 20,721
Mills- 15,068
Harrison- 14,136...

Ciao..LiO...Peace
What is it that creates such slow growth in Council Bluffs?

It's relatively common that cross-river+cross-state metro areas grow in pretty uneven ways. Cincinnati, St. Louis, Sioux City, Portland and Fargo all show this. Cities like Kansas city, which are cross state but not as bisected by a major river, are more even. On top of that, the bluffs don't help with easy growth, which is the same reason why there isn't significant growth in the northern metro.

guy4omaha · Post by **guy4omaha** » Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:33 pm

Playing with numbers on stats day:

Not exactly an Apples to Apples comparison since I have 2017 MSA estimates compared to 2010 Census of Urbanized Areas. Sometimes when I travel, I will note that a particular city feels as big as it is on paper or sometimes bigger, sometimes smaller.

Last Fall, I was in Greensville, SC. Very nice place but it just did not feel at all like it was rivaling Omaha in size as indicated by the MSA and CSA figures. (Yes, these are the things that run through the head of a stat nerd when on vacation with his wife and friends.) The linked stats for urbanized area tell the picture.

Grand Rapids, MI was another interesting contrast on paper at least. I have never been there to see how it compares in the real world.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Thu Mar 22, 2018 8:19 pm

guy4omaha wrote:Playing with numbers on stats day:

Not exactly an Apples to Apples comparison since I have 2017 MSA estimates compared to 2010 Census of Urbanized Areas. Sometimes when I travel, I will note that a particular city feels as big as it is on paper or sometimes bigger, sometimes smaller.

Last Fall, I was in Greensville, SC. Very nice place but it just did not feel at all like it was rivaling Omaha in size as indicated by the MSA and CSA figures. (Yes, these are the things that run through the head of a stat nerd when on vacation with his wife and friends.) The linked stats for urbanized area tell the picture.

Grand Rapids, MI was another interesting contrast on paper at least. I have never been there to see how it compares in the real world.

Great spreadsheet Guy. Good information

...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Post by **BRoss** » Sat Mar 24, 2018 4:22 pm

Damn, looks like we have to wait until May for the city breakdown:

https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys ... edule.html

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Sat Mar 24, 2018 4:50 pm

HR Paperstacks wrote:darn, looks like we have to wait until May for the city breakdown:

https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys ... edule.html

Yeah, I saw that..

I really wish the US Census could figure out a way to make census estimates a yearly annual big deal like the NFL does for it’s draft weekend.. They could call it the US Census national State/City/MSA/CSA population estimate release weekend. They could do MSA/CSA’s on Friday and state/city populations on Saturday (or vise-versa).. But this is the stat nerd in me speaking right now

...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Athomsfere · Post by **Athomsfere** » Wed Mar 28, 2018 11:16 pm

Omaha Cowboy wrote:

I’m really trying to gauge in my mind, in reality- based on the current level of growth, when the Omaha MSA only will hit 1 million. Based on the current 9200 per year population gain estimate, we’d be looking at 7 years- 2025, before the MSA hits I million. The CSA would hit the 1 million number in 3 or 4 years..

I’m still a little more optimistic that the Omaha metro will hit that magic number by 2023 or 2024...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Luckily it's basically compound interest:

2017 9300 933000
2018 9330 942330
2019 9423 951753.3
2020 9518 961270.833
2021 9613 970883.5413
2022 9709 980592.3767
2023 9806 990398.3005
2024 9904 1000302.284
2025 10003 1010305.306

But at exactly 1% growth each year, 2024 is the year for the MSA (Based off the numbers I skimmed). If any 1 year hits 2% we will see it in 2023. If one of the next 3 years (or a combined couple great years) we could hit 5% it would be 2021...