Nebraska 2020 Census

[Brad]

Nebraska's population grew 7.4% during past decade, moving state up to 37th largest in rankings

https://omaha.com/news/state-and-region ... op-story-1

The U.S. Census Bureau on Monday announced the official 2020 population counts for Nebraska and all 50 states for purposes of congressional apportionment.

Nebraska’s official head count of 1,961,504 represented a 7.4% increase over its 2010 count — the same as the national growth rate during the decade.

[Garrett]

That’s up 27k from the 2019 estimates, which is way faster than the usual 12-15k per year growth they had in the estimates.

[Omaha Cowboy]

I think this will also translate to the Official US Census numbers for metropolitan areas and CSA’s which come out in September..

We’ll see the estimate come out in about a week and I firmly see Omaha tickling the 1 million CSA mark..But I expect when the Official numbers arrive, Omaha exceeding the 1 million CSA threshold...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[GrandpaaSmucker]

I did run right out and get the Covid vaccine but I have not sent in my census yet. Guess it is to late now. Seriously I have never filled out the census once in my entire life. I tell other people this with a smug look on my face and surprisingly half the people or more tell me right back that they never fill out the census either. In the past they have sent people out to my door numerous times but this time around after the first mailing I got about 2-3 follow-up mailings telling me I better send it in because it was the law and that was the last I ever heard of it.

[mgoett]

Wikipedia has Omaha/council bluffs CSA at 1,058,000. Interesting!!!!

[Garrett]

Wikipedia has Omaha/council bluffs CSA at 1,058,000. Interesting!!!!

I don’t know how they came to that number but it’s very wrong.

[skinzfan23]

I believe the story mentions that this is the first time since 1900 that Nebraska has outpaced the nation's growth rate.

[Louie]

Is that close enough to say 2 million in passing?

[Athomsfere]

Wikipedia has Omaha/council bluffs CSA at 1,058,000. Interesting!!!!

Where was that? LOL. I can't find it now.
I guess it was not cited, and reverted though.

[Linkin5]

Wikipedia now has the Omaha CSA at 1,136,211.

[bigredmed1]

When will Lincoln and Omaha become one CSA?

[Louie]

Lots of interesting things with Wikipedia and the census that will surely be adjusting.

[ita]

When will Lincoln and Omaha become one CSA?

When we finally build that Omaha-Lincoln high speed rail line. Or when the Fed's lower the traffic interchange to 5%. /s

I would really like to see the change, but the standard is still way to high for it to become reality anytime soon.

[jomaha9]

Wikipedia now has the Omaha CSA at 1,136,211.

We are growing fast! Take that Sunbelt!

[nativeomahan]

I did run right out and get the Covid vaccine but I have not sent in my census yet. Guess it is to late now. Seriously I have never filled out the census once in my entire life. I tell other people this with a smug look on my face and surprisingly half the people or more tell me right back that they never fill out the census either. In the past they have sent people out to my door numerous times but this time around after the first mailing I got about 2-3 follow-up mailings telling me I better send it in because it was the law and that was the last I ever heard of it.

It is the law. So why don’t you follow it?

[nativeomahan]

I believe the story mentions that this is the first time since 1900 that Nebraska has outpaced the nation's growth rate.

Actually I think it exactly matches the national average. Slower than the growth rate of either Dakota or Colorado, but faster than Iowa, Kansas and Missouri.

[skinzfan23]

I believe the story mentions that this is the first time since 1900 that Nebraska has outpaced the nation's growth rate.

Actually I think it exactly matches the national average. Slower than the growth rate of either Dakota or Colorado, but faster than Iowa, Kansas and Missouri.

You are right...the stat I mean to mention is this:

Nebraska hadn’t previously ranked higher than 30th in population growth in any decade since 1900

[GrandpaaSmucker]

I did run right out and get the Covid vaccine but I have not sent in my census yet. Guess it is to late now. Seriously I have never filled out the census once in my entire life. I tell other people this with a smug look on my face and surprisingly half the people or more tell me right back that they never fill out the census either. In the past they have sent people out to my door numerous times but this time around after the first mailing I got about 2-3 follow-up mailings telling me I better send it in because it was the law and that was the last I ever heard of it.

It is the law. So why don’t you follow it?

As an insurance agent I get paid to fill out applications and check boxes for a living so doing the census for me feels like working without getting paid for it. I find a high percentage of the people I talk to who have filled out the census are bored busybody old ladies! I'm bored too but not that bored!

[Omaha Cowboy]

Wikipedia now has the Omaha CSA at 1,136,211.

We are growing fast! Take that Sunbelt!

At this rate, the Omaha CSA May hit the 2 million mark by next years 2021 annual estimate (unless they predictably lowball the number of course) ...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[Athomsfere]

I did run right out and get the Covid vaccine but I have not sent in my census yet. Guess it is to late now. Seriously I have never filled out the census once in my entire life. I tell other people this with a smug look on my face and surprisingly half the people or more tell me right back that they never fill out the census either. In the past they have sent people out to my door numerous times but this time around after the first mailing I got about 2-3 follow-up mailings telling me I better send it in because it was the law and that was the last I ever heard of it.

While somewhat funny to read. The 10 seconds it takes is well worth it.

[Erik]

I noticed another emergent pattern along with the overall lowball trend. That is the low end of estimates seem to always fall at the beginning and especially at the end of the decade.

[ita]

More census data will be released today, specifically used for redistricting: https://twitter.com/uscensusbureau/stat ... 1160161291

[Louie]

More census data will be released today, specifically used for redistricting: https://twitter.com/uscensusbureau/stat ... 1160161291

Any idea on what the specifics of the data will be?

[ita]

More census data will be released today, specifically used for redistricting: https://twitter.com/uscensusbureau/stat ... 1160161291

Any idea on what the specifics of the data will be?

This is what the Census Bureau says about the data dump https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-r ... -data.html:

The U.S. Census Bureau will hold a news conference to discuss the release of the first local level results from the 2020 Census. States use these data on race, Hispanic origin, and the voting-age population to redraw the boundaries of their congressional and state legislative districts.

The news conference will provide initial analysis of the first local level results from the 2020 Census on population change, race, ethnicity, the age 18 and over population, and housing occupancy status.

[ita]

Here is the link to data release: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys ... files.html

[skinzfan23]

I found a few cities for the April 2020 population (hopefully someone can make a nicer table/list later)

2020 actual, 2019 estimates (in parenthesis), 2010 and change in amt from 2010-2020 and % change.

Omaha 486,051 (478,192) 408,958 +77,093 18.85%
Lincoln 291,082 (289,102) 258,379 +32,703 12.65%
Bellevue 64,176 (53,544) 50,137 +14,039 28.00%
Grand Island 53,131 (51,267) 48,520 +4,611 9.50%
Fremont 27,141 (26,383) 26,397 +744 2.81%
Papillion 24,159 (20,471) 18,894 +5,265 27.87%
North Platte 23,390 (23,639) 24,733 -1,343
La Vista 16,746 (17,170) 15,758 +1,412 6.27%
Plattsmouth 6,544 (6,441) 6,502 +42 .06%
Ralston 6,494 (7,273) 5,943 +551 9.27%
Sidney 6,410 (6,115) 6,757 -347
Gretna 5,083 (5,058) 4,441 +642 14.46%

Really surprised to see Bellevue the leader in % gain, but the city is growing quickly and they have recently annexed quite a few neighborhoods as well.

[skinzfan23]

One other quick note,

Omaha should have passed Colorado Springs for the 39th largest city by population.

[buildomaha]

Wow I knew a most of the growth was clustered on the two cities, but the Omaha metro is really carrying the entire state at this point…

[Louie]

I found a few cities for the April 2020 population (hopefully someone can make a nicer table/list later)

2020 actual, 2019 estimates (in parenthesis), 2010 and change in amt from 2010-2020 and % change.

Omaha 486,051 (478,192) 408,958 +77,093 18.85%
Lincoln 291,082 (289,102) 258,379 +32,703 12.65%
Bellevue 64,176 (53,544) 50,137 +14,039 28.00%
Grand Island 53,131 (51,267) 48,520 +4,611 9.50%
Fremont 27,141 (26,383) 26,397 +744 2.81%
Papillion 24,159 (20,471) 18,894 +5,265 27.87%
North Platte 23,390 (23,639) 24,733 -1,343
La Vista 16,746 (17,170) 15,758 +1,412 6.27%
Plattsmouth 6,544 (6,441) 6,502 +42 .06%
Ralston 6,494 (7,273) 5,943 +551 9.27%
Sidney 6,410 (6,115) 6,757 -347
Gretna 5,083 (5,058) 4,441 +642 14.46%

Really surprised to see Bellevue the leader in % gain, but the city is growing quickly and they have recently annexed quite a few neighborhoods as well.

How did you find those through that link? Lotta links in there and I'd rather not waste 30 minutes clicking around aimlessly ha.

[buildomaha]

I cannot explain how interesting these statistics are on a local level. It will be an interesting special session to say the least

[skinzfan23]

How did you find those through that link? Lotta links in there and I'd rather not waste 30 minutes clicking around aimlessly ha.

I used the quick facts link on the census bureau website and just searched each city. This link is an example but you can search for up to 6 cities side by side.

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/ ... /PST045219

[Garrett]

I found a few cities for the April 2020 population (hopefully someone can make a nicer table/list later)

2020 actual, 2019 estimates (in parenthesis), 2010 and change in amt from 2010-2020 and % change.

Omaha 486,051 (478,192) 408,958 +77,093 18.85%
Lincoln 291,082 (289,102) 258,379 +32,703 12.65%
Bellevue 64,176 (53,544) 50,137 +14,039 28.00%
Grand Island 53,131 (51,267) 48,520 +4,611 9.50%
Fremont 27,141 (26,383) 26,397 +744 2.81%
Papillion 24,159 (20,471) 18,894 +5,265 27.87%
North Platte 23,390 (23,639) 24,733 -1,343
La Vista 16,746 (17,170) 15,758 +1,412 6.27%
Plattsmouth 6,544 (6,441) 6,502 +42 .06%
Ralston 6,494 (7,273) 5,943 +551 9.27%
Sidney 6,410 (6,115) 6,757 -347
Gretna 5,083 (5,058) 4,441 +642 14.46%

Really surprised to see Bellevue the leader in % gain, but the city is growing quickly and they have recently annexed quite a few neighborhoods as well.

This also makes Bellevue larger than Council Bluffs

[Garrett]

Redistricting is going to be interesting. The average legislature seat is going to have around 40,000 people, up from about 37,000 at the last census. By my vague estimations, Douglas, Sarpy, and Lancaster counties would each pick up a legislative seat.

[Garrett]

I've been toying around with https://www.districtbuilder.org/ and https://districtr.org/ a bit to make congressional districts based on the new census data. Give it a try if you're a map nerd like me.

[Garrett]

Welp looks like Republicans are trying to do a crazy gerrymander to split Douglas county and Omaha in two. Northern half going into district 2, southern half going into a remade district 2 with Saunders and the rest of Sarpy county. Typical.

[ricko]

Redistricting is going to be interesting. The average legislature seat is going to have around 40,000 people, up from about 37,000 at the last census. By my vague estimations, Douglas, Sarpy, and Lancaster counties would each pick up a legislative seat.

By my estimate, this should give Douglas, Sarpy and Lancaster counties a slight majority in the Senate, unless the Republicans gerrymander the heck out of the suburban districts.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Redistricting is going to be interesting. The average legislature seat is going to have around 40,000 people, up from about 37,000 at the last census. By my vague estimations, Douglas, Sarpy, and Lancaster counties would each pick up a legislative seat.

By my estimate, this should give Douglas, Sarpy and Lancaster counties a slight majority in the Senate, unless the Republicans gerrymander the heck out of the suburban districts.

From today’s W-H-

“A World-Herald analysis found that both the Republican and Democratic proposals would have given Democrat Joe Biden a win in the 2nd Congressional District and a lone Electoral College vote from the state. The district was dubbed the “blue dot” after Biden’s victory there in 2020 and Democrat Barack Obama’s win there in 2008.

In other words, none of the plans would dramatically change Nebraska’s current political picture. But the Democratic and Republican plans would give their parties more favorable vote margins now — and the prospect for future gains.

“Even though the differences will be small today, for Republicans, adding Republican voters today will mean even more Republicans tomorrow,” said Paul Landow, a retired University of Nebraska at Omaha political science professor. “It is like money in the bank — it pays dividends.”

Nebraska lawmakers debated Legislative Bill 1, the Republican plan for redrawing congressional districts, on Friday. The measure stalled when backers failed to get enough votes to end a filibuster led by Democrats in the officially nonpartisan Legislature.“

The W-H story link:

https://omaha.com/news/state-and-region ... the-latest

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Garrett]

Redistricting is going to be interesting. The average legislature seat is going to have around 40,000 people, up from about 37,000 at the last census. By my vague estimations, Douglas, Sarpy, and Lancaster counties would each pick up a legislative seat.

By my estimate, this should give Douglas, Sarpy and Lancaster counties a slight majority in the Senate, unless the Republicans gerrymander the heck out of the suburban districts.

From today’s W-H-

“A World-Herald analysis found that both the Republican and Democratic proposals would have given Democrat Joe Biden a win in the 2nd Congressional District and a lone Electoral College vote from the state. The district was dubbed the “blue dot” after Biden’s victory there in 2020 and Democrat Barack Obama’s win there in 2008.

In other words, none of the plans would dramatically change Nebraska’s current political picture. But the Democratic and Republican plans would give their parties more favorable vote margins now — and the prospect for future gains.

“Even though the differences will be small today, for Republicans, adding Republican voters today will mean even more Republicans tomorrow,” said Paul Landow, a retired University of Nebraska at Omaha political science professor. “It is like money in the bank — it pays dividends.”

Nebraska lawmakers debated Legislative Bill 1, the Republican plan for redrawing congressional districts, on Friday. The measure stalled when backers failed to get enough votes to end a filibuster led by Democrats in the officially nonpartisan Legislature.“

The W-H story link:

https://omaha.com/news/state-and-region ... the-latest

Ciao..LiO…Peace

While I’m not thrilled with the prospect of shifting CD-2 from all of Douglas and parts of Sarpy, I do find the 3rd compromise proposal interesting.

[Dundeemaha]

If Douglas County is going to be split, the ideal split in my mind is the Elkhorn River. Moving Valley and Waterloo to ne1 may shift enough voters to get 1 or 2 Sarpy towns in ne2 without splitting them.

La Vista, Bellevue, Papillon, even Gretna residents share more in common with Omaha than Valley, which shares a lot in common with Fremont, Wahoo and Blair

[Garrett]

If Douglas County is going to be split, the ideal split in my mind is the Elkhorn River. Moving Valley and Waterloo to ne1 may shift enough voters to get 1 or 2 Sarpy towns in ne2 without splitting them.

La Vista, Bellevue, Papillon, even Gretna residents share more in common with Omaha than Valley, which shares a lot in common with Fremont, Wahoo and Blair

Shifting the areas west of the Elkhorn River into the CD-1 only makes a difference of about 6,000 people, or about half of La Vista. Based on the tools I've played around with, that would be enough to fit all of Bellevue, La Vista, and half of Chalco into CD-2 though.