2019 Severe Weather Thread

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Thu Mar 07, 2019 6:54 pm

So, the NWS currently upgraded the language to "chance thunderstorms" on Saturday.

Motion to move this post and the two preceding it to a 2019 Severe Weather Thread?

Post by **Brad** » Thu Mar 07, 2019 10:35 pm

Busguy2010 wrote: Thu Mar 07, 2019 6:54 pm Motion to move this post and the two preceding it to a 2019 Severe Weather Thread?

Done.

I saw they added that, but it still seems like flooding is the biggest threat this weekend.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Thu Mar 07, 2019 11:38 pm

Brad wrote: Thu Mar 07, 2019 10:35 pm I saw they added that, but it still seems like flooding is the biggest threat this weekend.

It is mainly supposed to be benign rain on Saturday, but maybe some of us might hear a little rumble of thunder or two with yellows and oranges on the radar - which would be the first of the season.

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Fri Mar 08, 2019 1:56 pm

Kinda crazy to have that so soon after getting so much snow dumped on us.

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Fri Mar 08, 2019 2:53 pm

Louie wrote: Fri Mar 08, 2019 1:56 pm Kinda crazy to have that so soon after getting so much snow dumped on us.

I am assuming your are referring to the flooding. The flooding in this instance is a result of all the snow and the rain on top of that causing ice jams. I saw with a storm last week this happened in eastern Iowa, where storm sewers were clogged with ice and the runoff from the snowmelt and the rain had no where to go and caused street flooding.

Padre · Post by **Padre** » Fri Mar 08, 2019 3:33 pm

skinzfan23 wrote: Fri Mar 08, 2019 2:53 pm
Louie wrote: Fri Mar 08, 2019 1:56 pm Kinda crazy to have that so soon after getting so much snow dumped on us.
I am assuming your are referring to the flooding. The flooding in this instance is a result of all the snow and the rain on top of that causing ice jams. I saw with a storm last week this happened in eastern Iowa, where storm sewers were clogged with ice and the runoff from the snowmelt and the rain had no where to go and caused street flooding.

A few days ago with the ice on the street, I resented living at the top of a hill. Tomorrow, not so much!

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Fri Mar 08, 2019 3:50 pm

Yeah, we recently moved into a house at the bottom of a hill last summer and I am thinking that I better try to go out and clear the sewer drain tonight. I tried doing it a week ago, but it was just a solid sheet of ice. Hopefully I can make some progress with it though.

Post by **Brad** » Fri Mar 08, 2019 4:44 pm

skinzfan23 wrote: Fri Mar 08, 2019 3:50 pm Yeah, we recently moved into a house at the bottom of a hill last summer and I am thinking that I better try to go out and clear the sewer drain tonight. I tried doing it a week ago, but it was just a solid sheet of ice. Hopefully I can make some progress with it though.

Its not going to get below freezing tonight, just take the garden hose to it, it will melt fast.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Fri Mar 08, 2019 5:50 pm

I think I speak for 99% of us, I can’t wait for spring.. And long to see ground in Omaha without white frozen precipitation on it...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Fri Mar 08, 2019 6:53 pm

Omaha Cowboy wrote: Fri Mar 08, 2019 5:50 pm I think I speak for 99% of us, I can’t wait for spring.. And long to see ground in Omaha without white frozen precipitation on it...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Remember how I said I could handle another sizeable snow? Well we got it, and indeed, I too am ready for spring. We get a taste of it tomorrow.

jessep28 · Post by **jessep28** » Fri Mar 08, 2019 9:14 pm

Brad wrote: Fri Mar 08, 2019 4:44 pm
skinzfan23 wrote: Fri Mar 08, 2019 3:50 pm Yeah, we recently moved into a house at the bottom of a hill last summer and I am thinking that I better try to go out and clear the sewer drain tonight. I tried doing it a week ago, but it was just a solid sheet of ice. Hopefully I can make some progress with it though.
Its not going to get below freezing tonight, just take the garden hose to it, it will melt fast.

If the ice is super thick, a digging bar makes quick work of breaking it up. Just watch your angle so you're not damaging the concrete. But with the warmer temps, melting it with hose will be easier on the back.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Sat Mar 09, 2019 6:47 pm

So it turns out basement flooding is a HUGE issue today. All the usual stores are running out of sand bags, sump pumps, drain pipes, shop vacs. And this rain looks like it has been nothing compared to what we'll get midweek.

MadMartin8 · Post by **MadMartin8** » Sun Mar 10, 2019 8:41 am

Busguy2010 wrote: Sat Mar 09, 2019 6:47 pm So it turns out basement flooding is a HUGE issue today. All the usual stores are running out of sand bags, sump pumps, drain pipes, shop vacs. And this rain looks like it has been nothing compared to what we'll get midweek.

My townhome was completely flooded yesterday, and from what I was told there were a lot of reports of the same. Mother Nature isn't really being very nice this year.

RockHarbor · Post by **RockHarbor** » Thu Mar 14, 2019 8:23 pm

Sure a lot of flooding in Nebraska in recent days. I cant believe some of the pictures...

I talked to a lady that lived through the terrible Tuscaloosa, AL F-5 tornado in 2011, which went right over their house w/ a deafening roar, while she was in the bathtub w/ her dog, and her husband on the floor -- holding on for dear life. Their whole house was suddenly swept away, just the bathroom area remained. Her shoes were sucked off her in the tub, and he almost was blown away. While the twister was upon them, they both got a glimpse of cars and people and furniture flying through the air, probably 100 yards up. (They believed it was their neighbors behind them, that died.) This tornado tore houses away down to the concrete foundations, even taking concrete sometimes. It sucked nails out of wood. They were in a daze for weeks afterwards. She says they'll never get over it. She said the sound & feel of your house being pulled apart and tore away from you suddenly is something you cant even imagine. It made me realize even more how monstrous twisters can be -- especially F4s & F5s.

Its tornado season. Make sure you have action plans in place -- of course.

Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:00 pm

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Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:03 pm

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Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:05 pm

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Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:07 pm

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Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:09 pm

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Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:13 pm

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Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:15 pm

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Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:17 pm

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Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:20 pm

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Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:22 pm

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Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:30 pm

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Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:34 pm

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Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:37 pm

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Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:39 pm

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Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:37 am

So are the Platte and the Elkhorn the main flooders? I've been out of the loop, but hearing that there has been historic flooding. This whole things is hard for me to perceive. It seems like little more than an alright rain event has happened, but the combination of massive amounts of standing snow, sudden warmth, and a good size rain have compounded the impact that each individual event could have had on their own. What an extreme transition to spring this has been so far.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Fri Mar 15, 2019 1:06 am

RockHarbor wrote: Thu Mar 14, 2019 8:23 pm

This cycle started so cold so early in November, so warm in December and early January, with such a brutal February, and such a sudden melting. It has been an extreme season, er five months or so.

If this extreme trend continues, the next thing I would expect is a sudden heat up that would bring along some impactful weather events in late March and April, a late April or early May hard freeze, a really severe June, and a really hot July and August.

It would definitely be a trying year if all that were to happen. Just an extrapolation for now... I'll be interested to see if the extreme trend continues, but I'll prefer a more predictable next few months.

GetUrban · Post by **GetUrban** » Fri Mar 15, 2019 1:15 pm

Busguy2010 wrote: Fri Mar 15, 2019 1:06 am
RockHarbor wrote: Thu Mar 14, 2019 8:23 pm
This cycle started so cold so early in November, so warm in December and early January, with such a brutal February, and such a sudden melting. It has been an extreme season, er five months or so.

If this extreme trend continues, the next thing I would expect is a sudden heat up that would bring along some impactful weather events in late March and April, a late April or early May hard freeze, a really severe June, and a really hot July and August.

It would definitely be a trying year if all that were to happen. Just an extrapolation for now... I'll be interested to see if the extreme trend continues, but I'll prefer a more predictable next few months.

In the 50+ years I've lived in Omaha, I don't remember that much snow ever melting so fast. The recent rains weren't that big to cause this much flooding alone, but add in the fact that the ground was still frozen which caused almost all of the water from the record snow pack plus the added rain to run-off very suddenly. There were several snow events contained within the overall snow pack, some with very high moisture content with at least two freezing rain events layered-in between.

It will be interesting (possibly tragic) to see how severe the flooding on the Missouri River gets, especially with the releases from Gavins Point dam being increased to make room for the water coming in from further upstream. At least they've temporarily cut-off the releases from Ft. Randall dam, which is the next one above Gavins Point.

bigredmed1 · Post by **bigredmed1** » Fri Mar 15, 2019 3:02 pm

Busguy2010 wrote: Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:37 am So are the Platte and the Elkhorn the main flooders? I've been out of the loop, but hearing that there has been historic flooding. This whole things is hard for me to perceive. It seems like little more than an alright rain event has happened, but the combination of massive amounts of standing snow, sudden warmth, and a good size rain have compounded the impact that each individual event could have had on their own. What an extreme transition to spring this has been so far.

The Niobrara blew out a dam and a bridge. The Boyer and the Floyd are flooding. The MO is going to get huge.

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Fri Mar 15, 2019 3:10 pm

From what I have read, the Platte around Omaha is cresting between now and tomorrow morning depending on where you are on it. The Missouri closer to Tuesday for a crest.

GrandpaaSmucker · Post by **GrandpaaSmucker** » Fri Mar 15, 2019 8:21 pm

This will easily be the worst flooding the Omaha area has ever seen. The Missouri is so high that all the water pouring into it from the Platte is backing up in the lowlands. I never seen anything like this in my 50 plus years of living here.

The Fake experts keep telling us that the last flood was a freak incident what they call a "one in 100 year incident." It is all lies and predictions of fools. Truth of the matter is we have a problem here with the Missouri River and this is going to keep on happening and one of these days we really are going to have the mother of all floods.

RockHarbor · Post by **RockHarbor** » Fri Mar 15, 2019 8:31 pm

It seems like strange flooding. Im just taken back by all the odd, surprising pictures. I havent seen anything like this in NE either. It's like: Somebody left the hose running -- all over the eastern side of the state. What is really the cause of all of it? Is it all the snowfall melting from a hard winter all over NE, the Dakotas, ect.? Ice jams? What a mess. I feel for people there...

jessep28 · Post by **jessep28** » Fri Mar 15, 2019 8:34 pm

If the rain had tracked further North, Fort Randall may have been able to hold some of the runoff. You can't control the weather, unfortunately.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Fri Mar 15, 2019 8:51 pm

RockHarbor wrote: Fri Mar 15, 2019 8:31 pm It seems like strange flooding. Im just taken back by all the odd, surprising pictures. I havent seen anything like this in NE either. What is really the cause of all of it? Is it all the snowfall melting from a hard winter all over NE, the Dakotas, ect.? Ice jams? What a mess. I feel for people there...

I probably won't have a time here in the next couple days to see it with my own eyes, but from what I'm hearing and seeing in pictures, this is a huge event, and when its all said and done, will be going on the weather events to remember thread.

I think it starts with the amount of snowfall we got in that short period from January 12th till the last snow. And like GetUrban said, it never melted, and was compounded by freezing rain. I think another major factor was the unrelenting cold we had later in February, causing the snow to stick around. Then, its not like the temperature gradually rose over the course of a week or two. It was 20's, then all the sudden it was upper 30's and 40's and then that 60 degree day. I can't factor the high winds out as contributing to the way ice has broken up and jammed either. The rain certainly didn't help. It has just been a compound event that will be hard to attribute to any of the factors more than the other.

RockHarbor · Post by **RockHarbor** » Fri Mar 15, 2019 9:23 pm

Thanks for that explanation. Its weird what the right mix of factors coming together, and unfolding, can actually cause.

I just cant believe the pictures looking west from West Maple Road and West Dodge at the flooding Elkhorn River Vallley. Maybe this is a good reminder and "wake up call" of what is actually possible when the right ingedients come together, a startling picture to remind Omaha-area developers to not take Omaha's western suburban growth down into that low valley -- like we've seen some new developments happen so far. If so, that will be an entire valley of Omaha suburbia in which each home & duplex & apartment complex would require FEMA flood insurance. Its probably best to respect the "big trough" (the wide low flat expanse) nature created in the rolling Nebraska landscape with the rivers, and build elsewhere, always build higher. Of course, old historic towns like Fremont & Valley & Waterloo are already established in the flood plains, along with Council Bluffs, so its easy to think we can keep building.

Also, if you've driven from Fremont to Arlington, you see how Arlington is "up in the hills" above the valley Fremont is in. So, all those low lands are flooding, closing the highway from Fremont to Arlington. PLUS, the Bell Creek on the east side of Arlington is majorally flooding. So, land both high & low has flooding rivers, streams, and creeks. Strange sensation.

Cermak · Post by **Cermak** » Sat Mar 16, 2019 6:26 am

I am shocked by this flooding. And am very concerned about the Missouri River in the next few weeks. Omaha has large flood plains nearby that are easy to forget about because they don’t usually flood that often. The Elkhorn River valley to the west and the areas around and along I-29 on the Iowa side to the east, which tend to flood more. I don’t ever recall major flooding in the Elkhorn River valley.

I was out in Valley Nebraska and the Ginger Cove lakes neighborhood this past fall and was impressed with the beauty of the area. However, that part of Douglas County is extremely flat and near the Platte and Elkhorn rivers. I for one would never buy property in or near Valley Nebraska or low lying western parts of Douglas County now after seeing this devastation. I do think developers are going to want to skirt the western Douglas County area because of the likelihood of something like this occurring, even if it’s only once every 50 yrs. Extreme western dougles county may have to be left as mostly undeveloped land due to this on going flood threat. This could have an impact on Omaha’s future ability to grow. It seems roughly 204th st may be the western edge of development for a good chunk of Douglas County. And future growth in the metro will have to occur in the Bennington, Ponca hills area and Sarpy and Cass counties. Unless a solution can be developed to put an end to the flooding that we are seeing now. Like a huge dam and lake upstream similar to what Des Moines has done with Saylorville lake just north of the city. And even that might not work as Des Moines still has flooding problems. Really a tragic situation has occurred and we need to learn from it.

Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Sun Mar 17, 2019 12:03 pm

UPDATE, 8:45 a.m.: The Elkhorn River has crested at all points in eastern Nebraska, the National Weather Service said Sunday.

The river remains at major flood levels but is expected to be back below its flood stage of 14 feet by Tuesday. The river crested at 24.63 feet Saturday and was down to 22.17 feet near Waterloo at 6:15 a.m. Sunday, according to the weather service.