Downtown retail revisited

[Big E]

I'm bringing together a couple of things I've noticed from recent threads.

From the "Downtown condo tour develops deals" article:

<<<<two days after the first public tour of eight projects promising about 600 new residences in the next 18 months>>>>

From the "204th street development" article:

<<<<County Line Market would feature about 300 acres for houses, apartments, offices and businesses. Included in that are 870,000 square feet of retail space, more than either Village Pointe or Papillion's proposed Shadow Lake Towne Center>>>>

and

<<<<The project would have 239 homes>>>>

So let me get this straight... 239 homes in barely West Omaha warrants 7/8ths of a million square feet of new retail. Yet, 600 new residences in downtown Omaha and people wonder if they could support a grocery store? A multi-level Target? A movie theater?

Am I missing something here? I realize some of those 600 "new" residences are converted apartments, but not 361 of them. Between SoMa, TipTop and RFP you have to have the comparable 239 new units.

I want a grocery store, a Target and a 32-screen movie theater all on the same block, in the same building, with no street parking, and I want it to be 35 stories tall.

-Big E

[icejammer]

Am I missing something here?

Demographics son, demographics. Compare the current (and projected) surrounding population and income demographics, and it's no comparison. With that said, however, it seems that the retail in the western half of the city is reaching saturation (if not there already) and could spell the doom of several more central retail areas.

[Big E]

Ice, please don't read this as an attack on you, but I would disagree about the demographics.

For one, consider geography. There's nothing west of 204th and Q. Go further north and you're competing with VP. Further south and you're in Gretna. Further east and you're competing with Oakview.

Second, current and future projected incomes. Which is more desirable to you as a retailer: 300 units of cookie-cutter Celebrity Homes (I call 'em breeder boxes), with new parents in their 20s, both making $32K/yr with student loans, two car payments, and a 3yr balloon ARM on a $180K house? Or 300 condos between $200K and $1MM with empty nesters trying to find a way to spend their retirement money?

Now, keep in mind that western sprawl is, in most places, not much more than several miles from the Platte River. Also keep in mind that a good portion of that land can not and will not ever be developed due to flood plain restrictions.

I just can't fathom how retailers are not looking towards the future. The future is downtown.

-Big E

[StreetsOfOmaha]

Of course I totally agree.

[icejammer]

Ice, please don't read this as an attack on you, but I would disagree about the demographics.

None taken, it's okay to disagree.

For one, consider geography. There's nothing west of 204th and Q. Go further north and you're competing with VP. Further south and you're in Gretna. Further east and you're competing with Oakview.

Good points....but only to a degree. VP is 7 miles away, Oakview is 7 miles away - BUT downtown is closer to BOTH Crossroads and Mall of the Bluffs, if you want to look at it that way. This is right in between two hot spots - Elkhorn and Gretna. There may not be anything west of 204th and Q today, but what's coming tomorrow? These developers are certainly banking on that future growth, and if it doesn't come, this development will falter. Recent history though would suggest that growth will continue in this direction, for the foreseeable future anyway (or at least long enough for them to recoup their investment 10-fold).

Second, current and future projected incomes. Which is more desirable to you as a retailer: 300 units of cookie-cutter Celebrity Homes (I call 'em breeder boxes), with new parents in their 20s, both making $32K/yr with student loans, two car payments, and a 3yr balloon ARM on a $180K house? Or 300 condos between $200K and $1MM with empty nesters trying to find a way to spend their retirement money?

I guess that depends on what retail business I'm in! Seriously though, developers are looking at a broader picture than one subdivision/condo project and I can pretty much guarantee there's more money (or projected to be) within a 5-mile radius of this new development than downtown.

Now, keep in mind that western sprawl is, in most places, not much more than several miles from the Platte River. Also keep in mind that a good portion of that land can not and will not ever be developed due to flood plain restrictions.

I just can't fathom how retailers are not looking towards the future. The future is downtown.

-Big E

Very good points, and one the retail developers are well aware of, I'm sure, and are trying to position themselves for one of the last best locations for retail in western Douglas County. Now, and as others here have stated, we may have reached the saturation point for west O retail, and some of these new strip malls and others may not prosper. This is also bound to hurt retail in older parts of town, as everyone always seems to flock to the "latest and greatest" when it comes to shopping (I sometimes swear shopping is more a passion in Nebraska than Big Red football is!).

Will downtown see it's turn to shine with new retail? Yes. Will it happen in the next 6 months? No. Next 5 years? More likely than not, but it's not going to be the retail you see in this development and others out west. Downtown will see it's niche retail develop, but unless the powers-that-be start to encourage people to move to locations more central to downtown, instead of continuing to encourage this westward sprawl (and that is what it is), downtown retail will never take off in a big way. Just my two cents, and please feel free to disagree.

[CountOfMC]

For one, consider geography. There's nothing west of 204th and Q. Go further north and you're competing with VP.

http://www.eomaha.com/forum/viewtopic.p ... ht=234th+q

The future is downtown.

Isn't the future in both places? I think West O will continue to boom regardless of what happens downtown.

[DTO Luv]

I want a grocery store, a Target and a 32-screen movie theater all on the same block, in the same building, with no street parking, and I want it to be 35 stories tall.

-Big E

Cross your fingers on the Swanson site then.

I went on the Urban tour this weekend and one of the developers was talking about how some projects would have their own retail, BUT it would be the SECOND wave of people that move DT/inner city once the water for retail and all that has been tested. He guessed it would take about 5 years or less before the second wave hit.

[OmahaChef]

As much as I hate too admit it (because I'd love to see a shopping complex like The Gallery At Harborplace in Baltimore, The Terminal Building Mall in Cleveland, or the Lloyd Center in Portland), I believe the retail is a few years away too. Let's look at Old Market Lofts as an example. I was living in the Skinner Macaroni when OML was completed, and I was excited to see Garbo's, Stems, Jane's Health Foods, Elan, an art Gallery and a clothing store open ( OK, I didn't care a bit about the clothing store). I made sure I used some of those stores too. Two years ago, I moved to Bellevue, and what is left of all those stores today. All of them are gone, and there is one place open now, Aromas, a coffee shop. There is a sign in the former Jane's Health Food for a Class C liquor licence for a place to be called Freeze, but no retail. None of it could make it. There just are not enough people living downtown yet to support major retail development. Maybe someday though!!

[jjjjhskr]

Chef, in many ways I agree with you but I tend to think that the real issue is that there is nothing in the Old Market that drives people who are walkin around Howard St. and maybe Jackson that directs them to the loft area. It when you look down 11th street it appears that there's not much going on in the area. Possibly having things that have been talked about like ornamental street lighting, the nice map signs that are on some corners, flower pots, etc. would get people to explore the "SOMA" area more. I tend to think that the only people who headed in that direction were people who lived in that area - and that amount of people is definitely not enough to support the shops. If the shops had banded together and helped get the area looking more lived in I believe they would have done much better. Of course, the ButterNut building fire also was a big blow to the area. With the development that is going on hopefully, things will start to look more lively and you'll get more people in the area. I think most visitors to Omaha only stay on Howard St., Jackson, 10th and 11th, and think that those streets are all there is to the area.

[OmahaChef]

I absolutely agree with you! The fact that the Old Market Lofts are "down the hill", and hidden behind the parking garage makes it fringe development. Most tourists don't cross Jackson and walk down that way. Apparently, most locals don't either. Making it more of a destination point, with common signage, landscape, lighting, etc. would give the appearance that it is part of the overall Old Market area.

[Finn]

I completely agree with you guys. THe proposals for 11th Street (if incorporated) will definitely help. Also, part of the problem, besides being "down the hill" and hidden by the parking garage, is that the area is cut off from the south by the railroad tracks and the EAST from the bridge and lack of development beyond, near ConAgra. If the Butternut gets developed (should hear something on this by the end of summer - rumor) and something like Old Village Square gets developed, Leavenworth will become a "through" street. This area will not seem so isolated. Those earlier retail uses were a little too early for this location.