"I had a seller offer a $5,000 bonus if I brought him a buyer," Black said. "I had offers of free airfare, two round-trip tickets. Another man offered to leave a stainless steel refrigerator, a washer and dryer, a freezer and a plasma TV. He said it was a $4,000 TV.
"That's $8,000 in incentives for a $275,000 house. Some builders are paying 8 and 10 percent commissions. It's a bloodbath out there. The fact of the matter is, there are way too many houses on the market."
"Destiny is not a matter of chance, it is a matter of choice; it is not a thing to be waited for, it is a thing to be achieved."
I'm still waiting to hear breakdowns on different parts of town, sizes, prices, etc.
What's overpriced and oversaturated? $2 million downtown empty nest condos or $150K breeder-boxes bordering Dodge County?
This broad of a brush on a market the size of Omaha - not huge, but large enough to be disparate within itself - can't give an accurate picture of what is actually going on.
According to a local news outlet, Des Moines is also seeing a buyers market right now which I thought was interesting considering the growth they've been seeing lately. Maybe it's just all been a fluke lately over there and growth is going to go back to the way it had been now.
Lennar: Worst isn't over yet
No. 3 homebuilder's profits fall, cuts outlook, CEO says market still looking for a floor.
September 26 2006: 6:52 AM EDT
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Lennar Corp. Tuesday reported lower earnings, citing more weakness in the housing market, and warned about results in the fourth quarter.
The nation's third largest homebuilder said earnings for its third quarter ended Aug. 31 sank to $206.7 million, or $1.30 a share, from $337.3 million, or $2.06 a share, a year earlier. The results barely beat recently lowered forecasts by Wall Street analysts.
Lennar CEO Stuart Miller said in a statement said that the company was cutting its fourth-quarter earnings outlook "to a broad range of $1.00 to $1.30 per share." Wall Street analysts were looking for $1.60 a share for the quarter, on average.
"Although the economy remains strong and unemployment and interest rates remain relatively low, it is not clear that the homebuilding downturn has yet found a floor," Miller said in a the statement.
Gene Graves, president of Graves Development Resources, which has developed 11 housing subdivisions in Douglas and Sarpy Counties. Graves also served as executive director of the Metro Omaha Builders Association. He said this is the fourth housing recession he has experienced since 1974.
I have seen signs of bottoming out.
David Hartman, senior vice president and director of real estate lending for TierOne Bank. He has been involved in construction lending in the Omaha area for about 20 years.
My feeling is that it has bottomed out.
R. Gregg Mitchell, president and managing partner at Mitchell & Associates, real estate appraisers and consultants who publish a monthly market trend analysis. Mitchell received his appraisal license in 1978 and has been president of the firm for more than 20 years.
That's the word I'm getting (that it has bottomed out).
Neil Smith, chief market and community development officer for HearthStone Homes, a 36-year-old company that is one of the Omaha area's most prolific home builders. Smith said the company expects to close on 920 houses by the end of 2006.
I'm not sure. I think time will tell (if the market has bottomed out).
Kent Therkelsen of KRT Construction, a home builder and remodeler specializing in homes priced at $500,000 and higher. He was the 2006 president of the Metro Omaha Builders Association.
I did hear from several builders that the traffic for new homes had increased noticeably in November and early December and more contracts were signed, so I think I have to say we have hit bottom.
Larry Melichar, president of CBSHome Real Estate.
In my professional opinion, yes (the market has bottomed out).
Vince Leisey, president of Prudential Ambassador Real Estate.
Probably we've hit the bottom and will continue along at this pace for a while here.
Van Deeb, president of Deeb Real Estate.
By what we've seen, we think the market has bottomed out.
Which is amazing, because REALLY, there hasn't been that significant of a retreat on prices (not like other parts of the country)... and I'm not talking the downtown condo market either. On the other hand, I have seen a considerable number of houses just pulled from the market over the past few months. I wouldn't expect to see a surge back to the pace of sales/construction we saw over the past few years... rather steady growth at the current rate... which I think would be great.
Shoot for the Moon... if you miss, you'll land among the stars.
Businesspeople affected by the slowdown in the housing industry are being invited to a "summit" this month to raise money for a public-awareness campaign.
The message? There's never been a better time to buy a home.
Rocky Goodwin and Cathy Blackman, the newly elected presidents of the Metro Omaha Builders Association and Omaha Area Board of Realtors, respectively, mailed letters this week to about 100 people inviting them to meet at 11 a.m. Jan. 25 at Champions Run, 13800 Eagle Run Drive.
Goodwin said those invited include real estate agents and agency heads, builders and developers, and representatives of mortgage and title companies, lumberyards and other suppliers.
"We're trying to pool resources, talent and time," Goodwin said. "Rates are good, prices are good, and the inventory is good. We're just trying to get the public excited again."
Goodwin, whose Rockland Homes builds custom homes in the $200,000 to $400,000 range, said he believes the Omaha market has slowed more than it should have, partly because of negative publicity nationally about sales and price declines.
The new issue of Money has an article along these lines and how you can no longer trust your buying agent because they of all the incentives they are now getting to push certain homes (not to mention their take is based on your spending as much as possible). While I could not find a link online, there thre options, from least to most desireable are:
1. Go it alone. With all the websites out there, it is not too hard to find a house and you should simply set up the visits with the listing agent or go to open houses. When closing, negotiate a 3% reduction equal to what a buying agent would have received.
2. Negotiate a flat percentage with your agent. Since many companies are offering higher than 3% to buying agents, buyers find their agents pushing certain homes over others. By locking them into a certain percent, this helps alleviate.
3. Negotiate a flat fee with your agent. Put in the contract that anything over the flat fee gets applied to your closing costs.
Overall, an interesting article with some good pointers.
Every week USA Today runs a small article profiling a certain city's real estate market. This week was Omaha's
By Noelle Knox, USA TODAY
Omaha's real estate market is a little weaker than Nebraska's overall. But compared with the national trends, home sales and prices in this Midwestern city seem to be stable. For the first five months of the year, sales were down a slight 1.4%.
Still, Nancy Woolley, a local agent, says she can sense that the market in Omaha has slowed: "We're flat. We're not moving (houses) as fast. There are not as many buyers, and your house has got to be in tip-top condition to get a buyer."
Omaha enjoys a steady economy, with headquarters of such companies as ConAgra Foods, The Gallup Organization and Union Pacific. But many homeowners and shoppers in Omaha haven't been as financially prudent as the area's most famous investor, Warren Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway is also based there.
Many residents bought their homes with no money down, Woolley says, or refinanced them and tapped their equity to buy cars and luxuries. That means they have little or no financial cushion in the property if they want or need to sell. In some cases, lenders are then forced to take over the property.
"The foreclosure market — it's a booming business," Woolley says. "I can do more foreclosure listings in a month than anything else."
The online article has some nice little charts to go along with the article as well as an example of a median priced home and the most expensive home currently for sale in the area.
My sister bought a very modest 1200 sq foot ranch in the Phoenix suburb of Peoria in the late 90's for about $120k. I used to consider Phoenix almost a better housing deal than Omaha... but that's changed in the past few years. Last year, the same house across the street from her (have you seen these neighborhoods... now THESE are cookie cutter) sold for just over $300 thousand! One year later, she says they're selling for a slightly more palatable $250k. I guess when you have 1 million people coming into your metro each decade, there's bound to be some major league instability.
Shoot for the Moon... if you miss, you'll land among the stars.
I guess when you have 1 million people coming into your metro each decade, there's bound to be some major league instability.
I dont know if it takes a million people coming in. I lived in Casper WY up until 2000. I just barely sold a split level with 1600 sqft for 98,000 when i left. Three years later it was going for 169,000 and now it is probably over 200,000 based on what i have seen on the web out there. The reason -- Casper is going through a oil/gas/minerals boom and housing is in short supply as they haven't built a whole lot in the past 10 years.
Stargazer wrote:Once again... it could be MUCH worse... some other parts of the country are seeing double digit (evening 33+%) fluctuations in home values.
And once again, I want to see it broken down into specific markets within metro areas, ie downtown Omaha vs greater Omaha, beachfront Miami vs greater Miami, Las Vegas strip vs greater Las Vegas, sub-$400K vs plus-$400K, etc.
But you're absolutely right, Jeff. While Omaha didn't see the 50% increases, it also won't see the 33% decreases.
Let's all drink to 1.5% appreciation in perpetuity!
Stargazer wrote:Once again... it could be MUCH worse... some other parts of the country are seeing double digit (even 33+%) fluctuations in home values.
Definitely. Places like FL, CA, Vegas has been hit the hardest.
As far as Omaha, we're not seeing a huge flux in price change, simply because the prices really haven't gone up all that much here.
For exmaple, a 100K house in Omaha in 2001, fetch you about 120K current day. That's about 20% in about 6 years. Steady growth. There may be a short decline in the near term, but overall Omaha has a healthy market.
Of course, for those places like San Diego where we've seen over 300% increase, we're definitely seeing double digit decrease now. It's still not back where it was before, so real estate overall is still a great investment.
I'd like to see how many empty houses/condos are here in Omaha compare to a year ago. I bet some people are feeling the mortgage crunch with their interest-free 5/1 ARM about to adjust this or next year. Good luck to those risky mortgages.
Stargazer wrote:Once again... it could be MUCH worse... some other parts of the country are seeing double digit (even 33+%) fluctuations in home values.
Definitely. Places like FL, CA, Vegas has been hit the hardest.
As far as Omaha, we're not seeing a huge flux in price change, simply because the prices really haven't gone up all that much here.
For exmaple, a 100K house in Omaha in 2001, fetch you about 120K current day. That's about 20% in about 6 years. Steady growth. There may be a short decline in the near term, but overall Omaha has a healthy market.
Of course, for those places like San Diego where we've seen over 300% increase, we're definitely seeing double digit decrease now. It's still not back where it was before, so real estate overall is still a great investment.
I'd like to see how many empty houses/condos are here in Omaha compare to a year ago. I bet some people are feeling the mortgage crunch with their interest-free 5/1 ARM about to adjust this or next year. Good luck to those risky mortgages.
I suspect it's similar on the west coast, but in chicago, idiotic flippers artificially drove the market prices up a lot over the last 5 or so years. I'm giddy that a lot of them got royally screwed as prices dropped and supply skyrocketed.
I overheard a conversation a couple of weeks ago, so I can't vouch for the authenticity of the numbers.
Apparently there is a condo development in Miami that is comprised of two towers and a total of 400+ condo units. All units were sold prior to breaking ground. Upon completion, there are only 19 occupied units.
I'm sure the numbers have been skewed as the tale grew taller, but wow... if that's even close to accurate it is nuts.
shengs75 wrote:As far as Omaha, we're not seeing a huge flux in price change, simply because the prices really haven't gone up all that much here.
Exactly. The Omaha housing market isn't going to crash, because it never really boomed. And by "boom" I mean "was absurdly overvalued." I doubt this area had many speculators in the early 2000s; I suspect most of the homes that are bought in Omaha are bought by people who intend to live in them. This is a good thing.
Big E wrote:Apparently there is a condo development in Miami that is comprised of two towers and a total of 400+ condo units. All units were sold prior to breaking ground. Upon completion, there are only 19 occupied units.
I've never heard that story. But I wouldn't be surprised; most of these Florida houses are owned by people who've never set foot in them. There are whole subdivisions down there that are pretty much ghost towns. You know the $150 Dodge County breeder box somebody mentioned? Imagine rows of those, bought by out-of-staters for $500K apiece, thinking they'd flip them for a million in four years. And they built their mortgage on the assumption that that windfall was coming.
Real Estate Journal wrote:This is reflected in the latest office report compiled by Omaha’s Investors Realty. Though the start of 2013 hasn’t seen many large office deals, this is a situation that looks ready to change. According to the report, Investors Realty is currently tracking 29 large office tenants in the Omaha area who are seeking a total of 750,000 to 850,000 square feet of space over the next 30 months.
Side note... Moved back to Omaha from NYC the last few days and I have to say Omaha is impressive with the growth around the city. Everything looks a lot nicer since they revamped a lot of the buildings that were ugly/run down. I am impressed...
I was talking to two people today regarding real estate in Omaha. I've heard it is quite a seller's market. If somebody puts their used home up for sale, I hear it sells basically in a "snap of a finger." If you're trying to buy a used home, I hear you're up against many aggressive potential buyers. I guess the inventory is low among used homes. And, it seems more subdivisions are going in nowadays. In the last decade, I haven't seen that many new subdivisions go in, because Omaha was overbuillt, and there were so many new lots to fill in. This realtor guy told me that some developers went bankrupt over those years, while others simply got busy in another career. I hear those subdivisions cost like 10 million to put in. It's all so interesting. I want to understand this whole process & cycle better. Thoughts or comments on Omaha's real estate market?
I can get pushed out because I'm "too much" for some. Then, an observer of me comes suddenly swooping in to "fill my shoes." People are always more accepting of the new one, because their feathers aren't truly ruffled by them. (Yawn) I can count on it every time.
One of the Real-Estate radio shows said that there are currently more licensed real-estate agents in the metro than there are houses on the market. I forget the exact number, but it was almost 2 agents for every one house on the market if I remember right.
My completely armature observation:
I see more and more agents putting "Coming Soon" signs in peoples yards before the house even goes on the market, some of those houses seem to never even get the real "For Sale" sign in the yard and its already sold.
I live in an interesting neighborhood by Westside High School. Houses in our neighborhood range from about $175,000 up to a few million. The under $250,000 houses sell the first day they are on the market, usually more than asking with competing offers, and most need to be completely gutted inside. The $250,000 to $500,000 are usually fixed up and sell really fast and close to asking price. As you move closer to the Million dollar homes, they tend to sit a while, but eventually sell.
As far as sub-divisions:
Hearthstone and Benchmark were the two big ones that went out of business. I think the both had a large number of finished lots that went to auction.
There are a lot of new SID's coming online, however they are mostly North of Fort St or South of Q street.
Thanks for your response. I always learn new stuff.... I never heard the term "SID" before. I guessed it must stand for "subdivision in development." I found info here: https://www.douglascountyclerk.org/sidinfo I didn't even think about the rules & regs behind it all, and how the developer develops a public park if he/she allows one to be designed in the development. The market: I just can't believe how fierce it is right now! It shows how healthy the city is right now. If people sell their home simply because it is a good market, and try to get in another used one of similar value, they may be left renting an apartment -- is about what it sounds like. It may be better not to sale, and that influences the local inventory being low, as it presently is.
I can get pushed out because I'm "too much" for some. Then, an observer of me comes suddenly swooping in to "fill my shoes." People are always more accepting of the new one, because their feathers aren't truly ruffled by them. (Yawn) I can count on it every time.
SID = " Sanitary Improvement District ". Typically, when lots are platted smaller than an acre, a new sanitary sewer system is required to handle the waste, rather than depending on individual septic systems for each lot. Thus the term SID was born.
Such developments also usually include other infrastructure such as water service, electric, CTV, storm sewers, streets, and covenants. (sorry RockHarbor...didn't read your whole post before I started typing )
He said "They are some big, ugly red brick buildings" ...and then they were gone.
To be technical its "Sanitary AND Improvement District".
"In Nebraska, a Sanitary & Improvement District (SID) is a political subdivision with taxing authority formed to pay for installation and maintenance of public improvements with the SID."
They are almost their own little city until they are annexed. They have an SID Manager that works closely with board members, attorneys, financial advisors and contractors to manage and maintain the infrastructure. Until they are annexed, literally manage everything from road repairs to mowing the grass in the park.
Interesting GetUrban and Brad. I'm glad to learn this stuff. I guess this "tight" real estate market for used homes is similar everywhere -- not just Omaha. I've talked to ones in other cities...
I can get pushed out because I'm "too much" for some. Then, an observer of me comes suddenly swooping in to "fill my shoes." People are always more accepting of the new one, because their feathers aren't truly ruffled by them. (Yawn) I can count on it every time.
Another thing about SIDs...If they are built within the 3-mile zoning jurisdiction outside of Omaha's city limits (in Douglas County) they have to follow all of Omaha's zoning regulations, building codes, and standards. This means that all of the new streets built within the SID have to meet Omaha's standards so that when they eventually get annexed by Omaha, there shouldn't be any streets that aren't properly paved. In the past Omaha has annexed areas with substandard roads, some without storm sewers, that eventually need to be upgraded, like we see in some older neighborhoods now.
He said "They are some big, ugly red brick buildings" ...and then they were gone.
Interesting, GetUrban. That makes perfect sense (getting things to code before the city even annexes). I'm glad to learn this stuff. Up until now, all I knew was simply excitement seeing bulldozers etching streets and moving land, and thinking "Yeah! New homes are going in." Now I know more details.
I can get pushed out because I'm "too much" for some. Then, an observer of me comes suddenly swooping in to "fill my shoes." People are always more accepting of the new one, because their feathers aren't truly ruffled by them. (Yawn) I can count on it every time.
I live in Dundee. Most houses under $300K sell quick and if you're under $225 I think they mostly are gone within a day and multiple offers. Over $400K and they tend to sit a little while. The one across the street from me was put on the market for $635K and they dropped the price to $600K within a month. They had an open house last week. I think its still over priced for the street. I don't think a home on my block has ever sold for over $400K. There were a few priced at or near $1M and one was on the market forever before they dropped the price about $200K (or more, I'm not sure). The two others are still for sale. One has dropped the price (the beautiful yellow Mediterranean one on Farnam and a brick one on N Happy Hollow near Dundee Presby that was still asking over $1M.
lisanstan wrote:I live in Dundee. Most houses under $300K sell quick and if you're under $225 I think they mostly are gone within a day and multiple offers. Over $400K and they tend to sit a little while. The one across the street from me was put on the market for $635K and they dropped the price to $600K within a month. They had an open house last week. I think its still over priced for the street. I don't think a home on my block has ever sold for over $400K. There were a few priced at or near $1M and one was on the market forever before they dropped the price about $200K (or more, I'm not sure). The two others are still for sale. One has dropped the price (the beautiful yellow Mediterranean one on Farnam and a brick one on N Happy Hollow near Dundee Presby that was still asking over $1M.
It sounds like some people are trying to take advantage of a strong market. Nothing wrong with that -- I guess. But, they're not smart and the rest of us are dumb. Not only does the batch of potential buyers get smaller the higher priced the home, who is also not ultra-careful buying a very high-priced item? No wonder they still sit for sale. Also: This is Omaha. Not Milan.
I can get pushed out because I'm "too much" for some. Then, an observer of me comes suddenly swooping in to "fill my shoes." People are always more accepting of the new one, because their feathers aren't truly ruffled by them. (Yawn) I can count on it every time.
Brad wrote:Last weekend on Grow Omaha, Mike Riedmann from NP Dodge said there are only 2300 homes on the market in Omaha.
Wow! Is that total inventory? If that is the case, you can expect some sort of housing building boom in the next few years. There just isn't enough supply in the market right now.
Awesome! I love hearing the hammers pounding the nails and seeing new batches of homes going up. They really are starting to clear the land for new subdivisions, more than I've seen in the last 10 years. Omaha is really on the move. It feels like tons are moving here. Right now, I'm kinda obsessed ("obsessed" meaning I drive by ocassionally to see the change) with the 180th/192nd & Blondo/Maple area, the 192nd & Giles/Harrison area, the 204th & F area, and the Werner Park area. New hip-roofed homes seem really popular right now -- almost like that FLW "Prairie Style" look a bit.
I can get pushed out because I'm "too much" for some. Then, an observer of me comes suddenly swooping in to "fill my shoes." People are always more accepting of the new one, because their feathers aren't truly ruffled by them. (Yawn) I can count on it every time.
Brad wrote:Last weekend on Grow Omaha, Mike Riedmann from NP Dodge said there are only 2300 homes on the market in Omaha.
Wow! Is that total inventory? If that is the case, you can expect some sort of housing building boom in the next few years. There just isn't enough supply in the market right now.
I have my fingers crossed for more condominiums in Dundee, midtown, downtown, South 24th street, and Benson.
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