Bob from Omaha wrote: Mon Aug 07, 2023 4:48 pm
Ok. I was wrong to think that they could do the prudent thing and plan ahead. Throwing a dart or spinning a wheel didn't work for what I thought was great out of the box thinking. The original destinations were a bit weird.
I think one of the problems is if you did market research I'm wondering if you would've actually found a market at all. From the 2019 O/D numbers the #1 market was Chicago with 22,920 passengers. That equates to 63 passengers daily or just 31 passengers daily each way (PDEW).
Obviously Red Way and LNK went out of their way to avoid directly competing with United, but I wouldn't attempt to throw 150 seats onto a market with a PDEW of 31 much less some of the random routes they tried. But yeah, I don't believe the O/D numbers are probably LNK's true market due to the massive leakage to Omaha. With that said, I'm not really sure how you effectively do market research without it. And the data shows this was probably an ill-advised idea especially with how they started operations.
Bob from Omaha wrote: Mon Aug 07, 2023 4:48 pm
In the end they still have some cash so they have to make a choice:
1) Use the rest of the piggy bank to try to fix Red Way, or
2) Back to the drawing board and try to bribe a mainline carrier to add a single destination, like a hub. But which hub? They already have service to Chicago, Denver and Houston. I'm assuming Delta isn't interested. American to Phoenix?
Yeah so for they seem to be opting for number 1 and hoping the sun destinations do better in the winter. And they should, the question is if they'll do good enough...
Re: 2) I'm assuming Delta probably isn't interested either given their recent pullout. And on American recall that LNK had a $750,000 federal grant for service to DFW from 2018-2022 that AA never bit on. Said grant eventually got transferred to IAH and the city and UNL kicked in another $500,000. I don't see AA being that interested given they turned down the subsidy the first time, are getting paid to fly to Grand Island already and have a moderately large station 50 miles away in Omaha.
The one potentially interesting play that they may or may not have tried is that CommuteAir who is operating the IAH route some flights to DEN and has a maintenance base at LNK, also has a large operation (essentially a hub) at IAD. If you threw the rest of the pot at them and United right now, based on the O/D numbers above and the fact that United doesn't have the direct east coast EWR flights out of OMA anymore, I'm wondering if that route couldn't be successfully developed. That still would leave you effectively with one airline something they may or may not want (but are quickly on the path to getting again regardless).
Bob from Omaha wrote: Mon Aug 07, 2023 4:48 pm
I don't know. I maintain that speedy bus or rail to Eppley would achieve the goal of more destinations, frequencies, carriers, etc., but I just don't see it happening. Nor do I see an airport between Omaha & Lincoln. EVER.
I'm still of the opinion that there isn't enough traffic going to LNK as it is that would lead OMA to get more destinations. The airports are already effectively combined when 96% of the traffic is going to OMA.
Bob from Omaha wrote: Mon Aug 07, 2023 4:48 pm
I'm still waiting for the "jaw dropping" new destination on Red Way. "Wangler said that mystery destination could be announced later this week and would bring the number of Red Way's destinations in the winter months to five." This is from the Journal Star on July 24th, 2 weeks ago. I'll wait and put a pillow under my jaw.
Same here.
-----
In other Red Way news
Seeking Social Influencers in exchange for free flights
And oh look! Another fare sale!
https://www.1011now.com/2023/08/07/red- ... fall-sale/