2023 Weather Thread

[BRoss]

Cold front is starting to come through. It's sunk over 10 degrees.

[Coyote]

Christmas Blizzard!



A lot of wind and snow is headed across the middle part of the country Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Over a foot of snow is possible for some and with a gusty north wind at 40-60 mph, a nasty blizzard is likely. The time to prepare is now!

[Brad]

A thin line of thunderstorms is trying to develop along the cold front as it’s moving into our area from the west. Don’t be surprised to hear a few rumbles of thunder early this afternoon if the continuing strengthening.

Have yet to hear any thunder, but nice rain. Pick up an additional .32" since noon! Up to 0.92" now.

[BRoss]

A thin line of thunderstorms is trying to develop along the cold front as it’s moving into our area from the west. Don’t be surprised to hear a few rumbles of thunder early this afternoon if the continuing strengthening.

Have yet to hear any thunder, but nice rain. Pick up an additional .32" since noon! Up to 0.92" now.

I've only got 0.69" so far. Still a fairly nice amount though.

[Busguy2010]

It'll feel great to finally have a reason to fire up the greenhouse and sit next to the stove, listening to ice droplets hitting the roof, hearing the wind howling while I'm sitting comfy sipping hot cocoa. I live for it.

That sounds so nice

It's quite nice it's still too warm inside it to fire up, about 55, whereas outside is about 42. Still nice to listen to the rain in it tor now. Even that's been a rarity this year. But it'll be wonderful weather for the wood stove tomorrow. Wind chill will be in the teens all day, snow, sleet, etc. Should be able to reach well into the 80's inside the greenhouse. I can stay plenty comfortable in my actual house, but there's something more intimate about being out there, being closer to the elements, yet still being able to be dry and comfortable, and actually having physically processed the wood for the stove, the crackling of the fire. It's just plain cozy. I'm glad it'll finally be cold enough, especially since tomorrow is Christmas, it's perfect timing.

[stormchaser]

Winter storm watch changed to a winter weather advisory for Omaha (as expected). Still probably 3-4 inches of snow with wind.

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx. ... on=-96.096

[Brad]

Winter storm watch changed to a winter weather advisory for Omaha (as expected). Still probably 3-4 inches of snow with wind.

This will be one of those forecasts everyone complains about too. While Omaha is getting 2-4, Some models have Fremont at 7.5". People are going to hear 2-4 for Omaha and start complaining when Elkhorn gets 6".

[stormchaser]

Winter storm watch changed to a winter weather advisory for Omaha (as expected). Still probably 3-4 inches of snow with wind.

This will be one of those forecasts everyone complains about too. While Omaha is getting 2-4, Some models have Fremont at 7.5". People are going to hear 2-4 for Omaha and start complaining when Elkhorn gets 6".

Yep, and they’ll act like it’s incompetence when in reality, it’s nearly impossible to accurately forecast at times (this will maybe be one of them). Just reality given our current technology/knowledge limits and a TINY change can make a HUGE difference..

[Busguy2010]

FWIW, the NWS really backed off on the chance and the amount of snow. Starting to look not all that impressive, though I'll reserve my full expectations til after the news tonight.

The high for tomorrow of about 36 should happen at midnight, that much I'm confident in. So I expect it to be plenty cold, but I don't wanna get my hopes up for a decent amount of snow.

[stormchaser]

FWIW, the NWS really backed off on the chance and the amount of snow. Starting to look not all that impressive, though I'll reserve my full expectations til after the news tonight.

The high for tomorrow of about 36 should happen at midnight, that much I'm confident in. So I expect it to be plenty cold, but I don't wanna get my hopes up for a decent amount of snow.

Yeah, short range models have been trending less on recent model runs so I'm not surprised. It'll all come down to how quickly precip changes to all snow and actually starts accumulating and then how quickly a wedge of dry air works into our area from the south/southeast effectively cutting off the precip as the low wraps up and goes negatively titled to our north.

You can see what I mean on the simulated radar loop from the 01z HRRR below:

[Brad]

All the models now in the T-3 for Omaha.

[stormchaser]

Snow is now falling in the Millard area…

[stormchaser]

Looks like the decrease in snow totals is going to verify. Dry air and precip cutoff is quickly approaching Omaha from the south. We may only have an hour or 2 left of actual snowfall…otherwise just light stuff/occasional flurries today.

Radar as of ~9:10 AM:

[Brad]

Snow is now falling in the Millard area…

Unfortunately it looks like a big dry slot is working its way up from the south, should limit totals for now.

Got 1.6” of rain yesterday and today before the snow.

[stormchaser]

Snow is now falling in the Millard area…

Unfortunately it looks like a big dry slot is working its way up from the south, should limit totals for now.

Got 1.6” of rain yesterday and today before the snow.

Yep, most of the snow is coming to an end in Omaha. We "might" get another burst in a couple hours as stuff moves up from the south but in general, we shouldn't see much more for accumulation.

[Busguy2010]

I'm happy we at least got a little something.

[Cermak]

I'm happy we at least got a little something.

Right, a little snow gives us something new to look at besides brown grass.

[nativeomahan]

Most of my “brown grass” re-emerged today.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Most of my “brown grass” re-emerged today.

And also today, LOL…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Busguy2010]

I know most people don't like snow, but I have 100% noticed the ground is much more saturated since just that tiny amount of snow. It snowed on Monday and there's still plenty of snow left, and it'll all slowly melt and soak into the ground. I think this last snow has been more beneficial than any rain event that I can remember from at least the last 3-6 months.

[Brad]

I know most people don't like snow, but I have 100% noticed the ground is much more saturated since just that tiny amount of snow. It snowed on Monday and there's still plenty of snow left, and it'll all slowly melt and soak into the ground. I think this last snow has been more beneficial than any rain event that I can remember from at least the last 3-6 months.

What about the 1.6" of rain we got the day before the snow? The snow was just a little icing on the cake.

[Busguy2010]

What about the 1.6" of rain we got the day before the snow? The snow was just a little icing on the cake.

True, but I considered the event as a whole. The snow helped retain that moisture from the rain/sleet/snow mix. Coupled with the fact it didn’t immediately warm back up, I can't think of a more beneficial event in recent memory. We've been in such cycle of tiny rain events followed by weeks of warm and dry, that what moisture we got really didn't "stick". I'm happy the snow is melting in more of a metered way right now.

[Cermak]

I still have most of the snow covering my grass probably about 80% of the lawn is covered. My lawn slopes to the north slowing the snowmelt process. I like the snow this time of year. Still wondering how this winter is going to pan out, so far mild with little snow.

[Busguy2010]

I still have most of the snow covering my grass probably about 80% of the lawn is covered. My lawn slopes to the north slowing the snowmelt process. I like the snow this time of year. Still wondering how this winter is going to pan out, so far mild with little snow.

The trend the last few years seems to be a mild start and then get slammed from mid January-early March. I have no clue if that really means anything in the big picture. But I know I prefer it to start snowing and for winter to set in well before January 1st. Somebody said it, there always seems to be a price to be paid for a mild December. I know I prefer a winter to be more spread out than what we've experienced in recent years with winter being "backloaded" and condensed toward the end, if you will.

[skinzfan23]

One of the best benefits of it being so mild lately is that the ground isn't frozen and it was able to absorb that moisture rather than it just being runoff.

[Busguy2010]

One of the best benefits of it being so mild lately is that the ground isn't frozen and it was able to absorb that moisture rather than it just being runoff.

That could be a good point. However I'd like to point out that severely dry ground and soil may be equally unable to absorb water. I think we would benefit most from a really heavy snow rather than a heavy rain. Since we got 1.6" of rain recently, generally speaking, that would have equated to 16" of snow. I imagine that would melt, absorb, and evaporate at a much more effective rate, creating a much more moist environment.

Don't know if anybody else gardens around here, but I learned from the get go that watering is more effective when the ground has moisture than when its bone dry. When its dry, our water essentially runs through the soil not to be utilized by the plant. It's especially noticeable in dried out potted plants. The water just passes through and doesn't get absorbed. Not sure of the science behind it but likely to do with H2O molecules binding with other preexisting H2O molecules creating surface tension.

So I think any upcoming snow or rain event will build upon the one we had recently and it's a good thing it hasn't all disappeared already and that it isn't 50 degrees. It would be better if we had another event sooner than what we're looking at in the 10-14 day range.

[Brad]

Not sure of the science behind it but likely to do with H2O molecules binding with other preexisting H2O molecules creating surface tension.

Grady talks about it in this video, around the 10 min mark.

[skinzfan23]

That was a good video explaining it a little further.

[Brad]

That was a good video explaining it a little further.

Grady has so many cool videos on that channel!

[BRoss]

Now that we are on the last day of the year, it's safe to say that we did not drop below 0 all of 2023.

[Busguy2010]

Now that we are on the last day of the year, it's safe to say that we did not drop below 0 all of 2023.

Huh, that's an interesting stat. We hit 0 three times, but never below. I wouldn't care to go back and find out, but it'd be interesting to know the last time that happened.

I remember about 10 years ago or so, we were in a stretch to start the year where our highs were struggling to hit 0 or didn't hit double digits for about ten days.

[BRoss]

Huh, that's an interesting stat. We hit 0 three times, but never below.

Yeah, according to my weather station, the lowest I got was 0.3℉. And the highest was 102.7℉.

[BRoss]

I wouldn't care to go back and find out, but it'd be interesting to know the last time that happened.

I got curious about it too and according to this site and also this site, it appears we've gotten under 0 every year since at least 1948.

[Coyote]

Number of Days Below 0 °F in Omaha by Year

Year Rank Days < 0 °F
2023 76 0
2022 35 10
2021 35 10
2020 69 2
2019 40 9
2018 56 7
2017 64 5
2016 64 5
2015 48 8
2014 9 18
2013 56 7
2012 74 1
2011 48 8
2010 26 12
2009 40 9
2008 29 11
2007 40 9
2006 69 2
2005 26 12
2004 26 12
2003 60 6
2002 69 2
2001 68 4
2000 35 10

[Busguy2010]

I got curious about it too and according to this site and also this site, it appears we've gotten under 0 every year since at least 1948.

I honestly never knew anybody kept track of that lol. But wow, since at least 1948? That's a fairly significant stat, and we don't know if it had or hadn't ever happened before that.

[Busguy2010]

The #1 stat I want to find, but I've had no luck finding is record low high and record high low. I know the local news has reported on them when they're in jeopardy, but I could never find a source.

[BRoss]

I honestly never knew anybody kept track of that lol.

That site has the temperature data for every day in those periods (except some years in the 90s for some reason) and you can select the parameters of what you want to see - e.g. below or above a certain temperature.

I was playing around with it a bit earlier today.

[Busguy2010]

Here are links to our 2023 in review:

Climate summary - https://www.weather.gov/oax/2023climatesummary

Notable events - https://www.weather.gov/oax/2023TopEvents

[Brad]

Never wen below zero last year...

[nativeomahan]

Here’s hoping we go two in a row on not breaking zero in 2024.