2024 Weather Thread

[stormchaser]

@stormchaser...

holy |expletive|, that's a fantastic explanation, thank you!! I've always been fascinated by weather, as many of us are, it's awesome to get some insight as to what you all talk about!

No problem - happy to help!

I have watched a lot of skew-t videos over the years and this one is still the best out there. Also, for those of you that liked his video, that was only part 1 of a 17 video series.

I 100% agree!

lol. For what it's worth, i actually said "holy c-r-a-p" and it expletive'd it

Lol - that's funny - oh well though I guess

[stormchaser]

The 00z HRRR is in and it continues the threat for severe and potentially tornadic storms in the local area Friday.

I’d be surprised if they don’t upgrade to an “enhanced risk” in or near the local area with the next severe weather outlook update from the SPC - with the highest tornado threat setting up very close to Omaha itself and into adjacent parts of western IA (and possibly to the west/northwest of Omaha or wherever the exact placement of the low ends up).

If storms can remain discrete enough, this “could” be a dangerous day. Still plenty of uncertainty though but hopefully people keep a close eye on it.

Needless to say, I plan on chasing Friday.

[thenewguy]

The 00z HRRR is in and it continues the threat for severe and potentially tornadic storms in the local area Friday.

I’d be surprised if they don’t upgrade to an “enhanced risk” in or near the local area with the next severe weather outlook update from the SPC - with the highest tornado threat setting up very close to Omaha itself and into adjacent parts of western IA (and possibly to the west/northwest of Omaha or wherever the exact placement of the low ends up).

If storms can remain discrete enough, this “could” be a dangerous day. Still plenty of uncertainty though but hopefully people keep a close eye on it.

Needless to say, I plan on chasing Friday.

my worry is straight line winds and hail. Is this gonna be more of a rain maker and thunder (aside from tornado risk) or will we have possible large hail

[stormchaser]

As expected the NWS has upgraded our area to an "enhanced risk" with a 10% tornado risk area that includes Omaha.

[stormchaser]

The 00z HRRR is in and it continues the threat for severe and potentially tornadic storms in the local area Friday.

I’d be surprised if they don’t upgrade to an “enhanced risk” in or near the local area with the next severe weather outlook update from the SPC - with the highest tornado threat setting up very close to Omaha itself and into adjacent parts of western IA (and possibly to the west/northwest of Omaha or wherever the exact placement of the low ends up).

If storms can remain discrete enough, this “could” be a dangerous day. Still plenty of uncertainty though but hopefully people keep a close eye on it.

Needless to say, I plan on chasing Friday.

my worry is straight line winds and hail. Is this gonna be more of a rain maker and thunder (aside from tornado risk) or will we have possible large hail

There will definitely be the potential for damaging wind and large/very large hail - especially with any supercells that develop.

[Brad]

my worry is straight line winds and hail. Is this gonna be more of a rain maker and thunder (aside from tornado risk) or will we have possible large hail

There will definitely be the potential for damaging wind and large/very large hail - especially with any supercells that develop.

I was noticing this morning that the hatched area for hail is quite significant too.

...SUMMARY...
An active severe weather day appears possible on Friday from parts
of Nebraska and Iowa southward into parts of the southern Great
Plains and Ozarks. A few tornadoes (possibly strong), large to very
large hail, and damaging winds will all be possible.

hail.JPG

[stormchaser]

Below is an animation of the simulated radar from the 12z HRRR from now into tomorrow evening.

It continues to looks like we will have at least some risk for a damaging wind event late tonight/early tomorrow and then supercell development occurring tomorrow afternoon and moving directly through the Omaha area.

As I've mentioned a few times, this continues to look like potentially a dangerous day for the local area. Also, as I've mentioned a few times, if these storms can remain discrete enough, a stronger tornado or 2 would be possible somewhere in or near the local area. Not trying to overly hype things or scare anyone - just letting people know of the potential at least.

The time frame of the highest risk in the local area looks like it'll be between 3 PM and 7 PM tomorrow.

[Brad]

The latest update just came out and the 10% / Hatched area area has been extended a little further west

tor.JPG

[stormchaser]

The latest update just came out and the 10% / Hatched area area has been extended a little further west

tor.JPG

Yep, and they updated their text to include the threat for strong tornadoes (which confirms what I've been seeing too).

Link: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

"Still, most high-resolution guidance shows robust convective development by mid Friday afternoon across the eastern NE/northeast KS vicinity. Strong low-level and deep-layer shear will favorsupercells with attendant threat for tornadoes and very large hail as these thunderstorms spread into northwest MO and western/centra IA through Friday evening. Given the degree of low-level shear associated with the 45-55 kt southerly low-level jet, some of these tornadoes could be strong."

Unless the overnight/early morning storms do something to mess up the environment for tomorrow (which looks unlikely at this point), people should probably expect the biggest tornado outbreak we've seen in a few years here in the local Omaha area.

[almighty_tuna]

people should probably expect the biggest tornado outbreak we've seen in a few years here in the local Omaha area.

[stormchaser]

people should probably expect the biggest tornado outbreak we've seen in a few years here in the local Omaha area.

Lol, love that movie!

[stormchaser]

I should clarify, people should expect an outbreak like that and hope it doesn’t happen - so people are prepared at least.

[ShawJ]

I should clarify, people should expect an outbreak like that and hope it doesn’t happen - so people are prepared at least.

Still thinking the 3-7pm range (roughly) is when things will be most turbulent?

[Coyote]

Hail
Science behind hail



hail and how it forms

[BRoss]

people should probably expect the biggest tornado outbreak we've seen in a few years here in the local Omaha area.

Lol, love that movie!

Why doesn't that surprise me?

This was a movie I watched all the time as kid. I might need to watch it again soon.

[stormchaser]

I should clarify, people should expect an outbreak like that and hope it doesn’t happen - so people are prepared at least.

Still thinking the 3-7pm range (roughly) is when things will be most turbulent?

Yes sir, currently anyway.

[Brad]

The latest outlooks this morning still have us right in the bullseye...

[stormchaser]

The latest outlooks this morning still have us right in the bullseye...

Yep, and it looks like the storms are depicted to be more discrete than before. This means not everyone will be hit by one of these but it also means there will be an increased chance for tornadoes.

The text from the SPC continues the theme:

"A few tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, isolated very large hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) and isolated wind damage will be possible, mainly this afternoon/evening from northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska into northwest Missouri and southwest Iowa. Occasional severe storms are expected farther south into Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas."

I believe there will be a few tornadoes near or north/northwest of Omaha with the initial storm development (basically right where the low is). Then additional storms with tornado potential will develop south from there. How quickly that happens will determine if Omaha itself gets hit.

Right now I'm leaning towards heading southeast of Omaha knowing I'll probably miss anything that forms near or northwest of town. I just hate getting stuck in a city with a tornado warned storm and if I head north, I always do a good job of taking roads that ultimately don't have a Missouri River crossing and I have to play catch up as I tend to lose the storm trying to get across. Southwest IA probably has the highest "strong" tornado potential currently IMO but Omaha itself is obviously still at risk too.

[damonhynes]

Looks like I picked the wrong week to move to Houston...

[stormchaser]

Looks like I picked the wrong week to move to Houston...

Lol bummer!

[nebugeater]

How much rain for people last night ( Thur)?

Family in the Oakland NE area had 2" last night.

I didn't look at my gauge this morning in Gretna

[Brad]

Wood River 4.19
Polk County 4.14
Grand island 3.55
Aurora 3.63
Columbus 2.58
Fremont 1.74

Platt River is going to be full!

[Busguy2010]

Again, too bad it had to happen overnight, but from what I heard in and out of sleep, we finally had one come through for us!

[stormchaser]

It's worth mentioning, tomorrow likes like a pretty substantial/possibly dangerous severe weather day from Omaha on south too. Have to get through today first though.

[stormchaser]

For anyone wondering, the clouds and light rain we are seeing right now shouldn't have much of an impact on redevelopment this afternoon.

There is a wedge of warm air/clear skies with higher dewpoints moving up this way from the southwest.

That doesn't mean Omaha specifically will be hit by the storms (statistically, odds are always going to be higher for a specific area to by missed with a setup like this), but it's unlikely this is going to be a "bust" like I've already seen numerous people try to claim online who know very little about what they're talking about.

Long story short, don't let down your guard if you see these people posting nonsense online.

[Louie]

For anyone wondering, the clouds and light rain we are seeing right now shouldn't have much of an impact on redevelopment this afternoon.

There is a wedge of warm air/clear skies with higher dewpoints moving up this way from the southwest.

That doesn't mean Omaha specifically will be hit by the storms (statistically, odds are always going to be higher for a specific area to by missed with a setup like this), but it's unlikely this is going to be a "bust" like I've already seen numerous people try to claim online who know very little about what they're talking about.

Long story short, don't let down your guard if you see these people posting nonsense online.

wait, but youre posting online?? WHAT ARE WE SUPPOSED TO BELIEVE?!?!?!?!?

[stormchaser]

For anyone wondering, the clouds and light rain we are seeing right now shouldn't have much of an impact on redevelopment this afternoon.

There is a wedge of warm air/clear skies with higher dewpoints moving up this way from the southwest.

That doesn't mean Omaha specifically will be hit by the storms (statistically, odds are always going to be higher for a specific area to by missed with a setup like this), but it's unlikely this is going to be a "bust" like I've already seen numerous people try to claim online who know very little about what they're talking about.

Long story short, don't let down your guard if you see these people posting nonsense online.

wait, but youre posting online?? WHAT ARE WE SUPPOSED TO BELIEVE?!?!?!?!?

Lol

[stormchaser]

Updated SPC outlook at 11:25 AM continues the theme of the previous outlooks with a slight shift west in the tornado risk area:

"Water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough rotating across KS/NE. A deep surface low is analyzed ahead of this trough over central NE, with a dryline extending southward into central KS. A corridor of ample low-level moisture is present ahead of the dryline over southeast NE/northeast KS, where daytime heating will lead to moderate MLCAPE values and rapid thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon. Backed low-level winds and favorable shear profiles will promote supercells in the bent-back region of the low, with very large hail and tornadoes possible. These storms will progress eastward into western IA and northwest MO through the early evening. A strong tornado or two is possible in this region."

[skinzfan23]

wait, but youre posting online?? WHAT ARE WE SUPPOSED TO BELIEVE?!?!?!?!?

[Busguy2010]

It looks like as we've gotten closer, the NWS has condensed the main threat to the 4 and 5pm hours. Along with what WOWT just said, I see this being mostly a one and done. Once that first broken line moves through, that'll mainly be it. I see strong potential for omadome activation. I don't really like that prospect. Either we get a really bad storm, or we get next to nothing. Time will tell.

[almighty_tuna]

Bah, what a letdown. Is it due to the clouds sticking around longer than anticipated?

Also, to put a real world example to your recent skew-t Ted Talk, would part of the issue be the fairly negligent difference between the red and green lines around 800mb in the upper left chart?

[Brad]

First Tornado warning of the day on a storm that popped up near Ravenna, NE.

[stormchaser]

Bah, what a letdown. Is it due to the clouds sticking around longer than anticipated?

Also, to put a real world example to your recent skew-t Ted Talk, would part of the issue be the fairly negligent difference between the red and green lines around 800mb in the upper left chart?

Clouds should move out yet in time. They’re burning of quickly from south to north.

The biggest issue on that skew-t sounding is the cap (that wedge of warmer air above the surface). That said, the cap should erode as the system gets closer and storms should fire.

It’s just a matter of time.

Hitting the road now though. Be safe everyone!

[Brad]

Hitting the road now though. Be safe everyone!

Stay Safe!

MD 526 is out, 95% chance of a watch.

Hi-res guidance and observational trends are in good agreement that an arc of storms could develop as early as 18-19z and spread northeastward into east eastern NE and eventually western IA.

18-19z = 1pm to 2pm.

MD-526.JPG

[Brad]

Quite the large watch area:

[Louie]

Pretty big cell clipping West Lincoln right now. Looks like it will stay west of the metro.

[Busguy2010]

Pretty big cell clipping West Lincoln right now. Looks like it will stay west of the metro.

Wow, yeah that's a real big boy. I agree it should stay west of here. Plenty of clearing southbound it, so I assume many more would pop up in time. Pretty soupy out now, and skies are starting to look a little sus.

[Louie]

Pretty big cell clipping West Lincoln right now. Looks like it will stay west of the metro.

Wow, yeah that's a real big boy. I agree it should stay west of here. Plenty of clearing southbound it, so I assume many more would pop up in time. Pretty soupy out now, and skies are starting to look a little sus.

And now the hook is turning more easterly.

[Flyer14]

Pretty wild pictures and reports coming in, this is quite the system. Hope all are safe!

[Busguy2010]

My uncle took this one, he's sw of gretna. Thus was maybe 15-30 minutes ago.